The NFL is perfectly divided right now: 16 teams pay a QB at least $40 million per year and 16 teams don’t. What you’re about to see is that there is no real difference in quality between the two halves, which means that it doesn’t make sense to pay a QB that much money unless he’s already gone deep in the playoffs. Those QB contracts, the ones on TEAMS that were already winning playoff games before the extensions, have been much less regrettable.
This is not a debate over how much credit quarterbacks deserve for wins, but I couldn’t fit “GMs must know that they have a great team before they pay any player $50 to $60 million per year” into the headline.