per usual (nearly), I agree with you. personally, I tend to find Pete and John's answers to the media to be generally transparent, especially when compared to their counterparts, who often either say very little or say way too much. To take what John and Pete have said and to run with the idea that a franchise tag is eminent is as you say "disingenuous". The tag on Geno is just not gonna happen. Everybody and their cousins know that our 'Hawks need to fix the defense and the priority is penultimate and singular. Our Seahawks did not expect Geno to be a good as he was last year, heck few of us did. They were gifted a chance with Geno, and now they gotta adjust. They are going to be diligent, they are going to be smart, but they are first gonna fix the D. I'm positive that covering any team in the NFL is exhausting. I don't entirely fault some of the media members you alluded to. The NFL news cycle (and the news at-large) truly has become a bizarrely mediocre cascade of half-formulated ideas. Some head-slappers, for sure. but that's why we love you, Joe 'cause you go above and beyond with your work. Keep it up!!! and yo, go 'Hawks.
Pete speak -never talk bad about anyone. Pete rule play to win today eg always compete. Application of Pete rule the Seahawks are not passing on next season so they can compete in a few years. By the way Pete's approach is a great approach because teams don't tank there way to championships in the NFL. If they did the Browns would have at least played in multiple Super Bowls. Loosing a football game is not like losing a baseball game. For the players loosing a football game is the equivalent of loosing a fight. Loose enough times and the will to fight is lost.
Finally, I still agree with Kenneth, none of that means that we are tagging Geno. Numbers don't lie and the numbers say we are not tagging Geno. The money suggested for bridge by other here is too low. Jameis Winston's 2yr contract had 14 million signing bonus with 15.20 guaranteed. Average salary 14 million. Geno's worth more than that. The market for a QB that post Genos number for three to four years is 35 Million. The market for Geno is high bridge - 20 Million we can live with that. Who is going to pay more? Yes Tampa could do it but so could we by mortgaging the future. If we won't do it, why would another team?
Let me pose the opposite question. If we don't sign Geno, the likely options are Drew or draft. If Pete believes in him, Drew seems like the most cost effective approach but even Drew would be due a big raise if he's named the starter. I'll make the assumption Geno's cap impact would be less than $20 mil for 2023 so wouldn't Drew's 2023 pay be similar to Smith's 2023 cap hit on a new contract? What if we draft a QB at 5? Neither Mahomes nor Herbert were immediate starters while Zach Wilson, Darnold, and Fields are cautionary tales, therefore, we would require a suitable bridge QB for an affordable price, say $12 mil apy. Including the $10 million compensation for the 5th pick, the cap hit for QBs in 2023 would be $22 mil. Any option we chose incurs a 2023 cap hit of around $20 mil. Joe has often opined that you can't win a championship without a championship QB. If we can't afford to pay Geno now... when?
The #5 pick is more like $6mil, rising to $10mil for 2026. A Bridge QB going to be far more like $4-6.5mil (the range of Winston $4mil in '22 up to Bridgewater $6.5mil in '22, above this you're onto pure starter contracts and high rookies. And there are enough Bridge options available you can keep the cost down). So the 2023 QB cap hit would be more like $10-12mil , vs the $31mil of 2022. 2024 that #5QB takes over as starter, cap $7mil. Clear the Bridge for a pure backup at $1-2mil (Seimian, Hoyer, Trask all cost in this range. You could push it to $3mil for Foles). Making the 2024 Cap hit in the range of $9mil. 2026 when that #5 does cost $10mil, with that back-up cost we're still only paying $12mil against the cap.
That's why you don't tag Geno. It's why you don't really sign Geno and instead use the gift of #5 to seriously consider a QB. $31mil 2022 down to $9mil and a superbowl ring in 2024.
Few people or organizations are as honest as you, Ken. And beyond honesty, few reporters put in the work you do, so their reporting is filled with crap. Like all the mock draft guys who draft CB's for the Seahawks in the first round. Even when we don't need a CB.
I hear you, Ken. The Seahawks will likely need to draft a QB this year, if only as a backup for Drew Lock.
Thanks Stephen! You know, if Geno is tagged AND signs it, I'm gonna look pretty foolish! It has happened before. But I'll be astonished by how Seattle manages to pull that off because it seems no secret that the Seahawks have many needs and little cap space to do literally anything if they tag Geno. I just can't fathom how other writers don't address that.
It is a challenge to Not scoff at the rumors and 'reports' (also rumors) that are saying that Geno 'deserves' a $30-40M payday. Of the teams that need a QB - or want an upgrade - virtually None has the ability to dish out like has been suggested without making major cuts. If the Seahawks comply, how the heck can they and still field a full team under the salary cap?
Thank you Kenneth for being the voice of reality in that arena - as well as the Go-To guide for looking over the possibilities. There are so many moving parts to all this...
This copycat league saw with the most recent season going so very bad for virtually every high priced QB transfer. Plus, seeing just how incredible the Eagles did with their low priced talent as well as the half season the the Niner's got from the 2022 draft's last pick, one would think the league has been listening, even if the media has not.
BTW, even the Chiefs benefited Greatly from their rookie deals - they truly have loaded up on first contracts in so many other areas that they really have talent affordability to thank for hoisting the Lombardi as much as having the best QB and most explosive play-makers.
So in a year where there are 4 legit first-round signal callers plus a few middle-round possibilities, numerous options for trade and free-agency AND limited resources that QB needy teams can even tap into, it just does Not seem like Geno will be signed until After the draft unless he decides to be affordable (against his agent's advice) That is not likely to happen...
Even though I much prefer our Hawks to make their draft windfall investment on the D-line, the 'tea-leaves' I am reading say this draft will see a Seahawks' QB acquisition earlier VS later.
i keep waiting to discover some huge way to cap space that im just overlooking, as if maybe hey im the imposter or the fool. but i haven't found it yet!
The answer is an expected $40 to $50 million increase in the cap by 2025. As Cover12 referenced, KC benefited from Mahome's rookie contract and the massive extension that pushed his compensation to later years. It arrives in 2023 and they will have to make adjustments but I'm betting they were counting on the salary cap rise to absorb his $50 million dollar salary.
Gotcha, but we all know that the franchise tag would only be to extend the neogiating period for an extension. I agree there's no way they'll use the tag unless they're 100% convinced an extension to lower the cap hit is imminent. I'm just pointing out that our 2023 options are acutally about the same with any strategy other than the franchise tag... which isn't happening.
As a very daily reader of the newsletter, you know I've addressed this many times with many details. So when you reply to my comment about waiting to see a gap in the salary cap, surely you know I'm talking about the 2023 cap and signing the franchise tag, not the scenarios I've laid out in the past and in this article for long-term contracts to spread out that hit. But am I betting on the Seahawks to absorb a $50 million cap hit on geno in the future? 1 million percent No.
There is another QB who watched and learned and did everything expected of him last season in preparation for taking on a bigger role. For all of the reasons discussed during training camp and preseason last year, plus a year of seasoning, Lock just could be Geno 2.0 while QB Draft Pick watches and learns. Is Lock the QBOTF? Not very likely. But he could be good enough running Waldron's scheme to be a useful, cheap, sturdy bridge while the rest of the team develops.
We never did really get to see Lock run the 1s after having prepared adequately to do so. Everyone talks about how much he sucked in the last preseason game vs Dallas, but he was coming off of Covid with limited time with the 1s. As a QB he has many of the same attributes as Goff, who was effective enough running the scheme Waldron is running to make it to the SB (with a little help from the refs in the NFCCG, mind you). Ya never know.
I am leaning on this as a realistic option to my less realistic #1 option of paying Geno a contract that has a $10M max cap hit for 2023 and remains a trade candidate for the future after developing his affordable replacement.
His affordable replacement? I think people need to get over the idea that good QBs are going to be cheap, even on a rookie contract. A very good rookie isn't going to win a championship in his first year and probably not his second. Now you've got two, maybe three years of affordable if he signs and extension rather than the team picking up the fifth year option. Do you start all over again and draft a QB in year five? If the QB is good, Mahomes or Rodgers good, he's going to cost $60 million apy in year six. According to the Spotrac founder, the $60 million QB will hit as soon as next year. And this scenario assumes your draft pick doesn't turn out to be Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson.
As much as I'm aware that poor QB play could mean we stink next year so badly that we could pick in the top 5 again, I'm not one bit worried about it. If Geno gets his bag ($30+M) I pray it's with someone else. This would be just like the declining Russ years. We're trying to field a team when one guy is taking up too much of the cap in an organization that doesn't kick the can down the road like the Rams and Saints of old. We never let ourselves have a down year so we could get the cap in order and have draft capital for the future. I'd just as soon have one painful season of football watching and a bright future as barely make the playoffs and lose in the 1st round for the nth time. I don't know what kind of leash Carroll is on and if his job would be in jeopardy with a terrible season, though. But it feels like the "always compete" mantra hamstrings us from competing later with low draft picks and little cap space.
First, Pete and John committed to field a continuously competitive team. It has been their mantra since day one. Second, the cap is in order. According the the Spotrac founder, we're one of the teams in good shape now and for the future. Personally, I'd rather win every year than suck for a Super Bowl. As San Francisco has found out, you never know what's going to happen.
Fans start sharpening the pitchforks after just one loss. After hearing so many saying the expected few wins this year, they still couldn't stand losing and blamed anyone and everyone. Fire Pete! Start Drew Lock! One bad season and heads will start exploding.
Dear S. Joe Chats,
per usual (nearly), I agree with you. personally, I tend to find Pete and John's answers to the media to be generally transparent, especially when compared to their counterparts, who often either say very little or say way too much. To take what John and Pete have said and to run with the idea that a franchise tag is eminent is as you say "disingenuous". The tag on Geno is just not gonna happen. Everybody and their cousins know that our 'Hawks need to fix the defense and the priority is penultimate and singular. Our Seahawks did not expect Geno to be a good as he was last year, heck few of us did. They were gifted a chance with Geno, and now they gotta adjust. They are going to be diligent, they are going to be smart, but they are first gonna fix the D. I'm positive that covering any team in the NFL is exhausting. I don't entirely fault some of the media members you alluded to. The NFL news cycle (and the news at-large) truly has become a bizarrely mediocre cascade of half-formulated ideas. Some head-slappers, for sure. but that's why we love you, Joe 'cause you go above and beyond with your work. Keep it up!!! and yo, go 'Hawks.
Hell yeah, 100% agree with you Terrance! I should have listened to you on Geno last summer and I should definitely be listening to you now! Thank you!
haha thank you, sir. means a lot coming from you!
Pete speak -never talk bad about anyone. Pete rule play to win today eg always compete. Application of Pete rule the Seahawks are not passing on next season so they can compete in a few years. By the way Pete's approach is a great approach because teams don't tank there way to championships in the NFL. If they did the Browns would have at least played in multiple Super Bowls. Loosing a football game is not like losing a baseball game. For the players loosing a football game is the equivalent of loosing a fight. Loose enough times and the will to fight is lost.
Finally, I still agree with Kenneth, none of that means that we are tagging Geno. Numbers don't lie and the numbers say we are not tagging Geno. The money suggested for bridge by other here is too low. Jameis Winston's 2yr contract had 14 million signing bonus with 15.20 guaranteed. Average salary 14 million. Geno's worth more than that. The market for a QB that post Genos number for three to four years is 35 Million. The market for Geno is high bridge - 20 Million we can live with that. Who is going to pay more? Yes Tampa could do it but so could we by mortgaging the future. If we won't do it, why would another team?
Let me pose the opposite question. If we don't sign Geno, the likely options are Drew or draft. If Pete believes in him, Drew seems like the most cost effective approach but even Drew would be due a big raise if he's named the starter. I'll make the assumption Geno's cap impact would be less than $20 mil for 2023 so wouldn't Drew's 2023 pay be similar to Smith's 2023 cap hit on a new contract? What if we draft a QB at 5? Neither Mahomes nor Herbert were immediate starters while Zach Wilson, Darnold, and Fields are cautionary tales, therefore, we would require a suitable bridge QB for an affordable price, say $12 mil apy. Including the $10 million compensation for the 5th pick, the cap hit for QBs in 2023 would be $22 mil. Any option we chose incurs a 2023 cap hit of around $20 mil. Joe has often opined that you can't win a championship without a championship QB. If we can't afford to pay Geno now... when?
The #5 pick is more like $6mil, rising to $10mil for 2026. A Bridge QB going to be far more like $4-6.5mil (the range of Winston $4mil in '22 up to Bridgewater $6.5mil in '22, above this you're onto pure starter contracts and high rookies. And there are enough Bridge options available you can keep the cost down). So the 2023 QB cap hit would be more like $10-12mil , vs the $31mil of 2022. 2024 that #5QB takes over as starter, cap $7mil. Clear the Bridge for a pure backup at $1-2mil (Seimian, Hoyer, Trask all cost in this range. You could push it to $3mil for Foles). Making the 2024 Cap hit in the range of $9mil. 2026 when that #5 does cost $10mil, with that back-up cost we're still only paying $12mil against the cap.
That's why you don't tag Geno. It's why you don't really sign Geno and instead use the gift of #5 to seriously consider a QB. $31mil 2022 down to $9mil and a superbowl ring in 2024.
I’m thinking DL is a $6M QB that could get a $25M / 3 year deal. Not bad really. I think we could all be OK a with that.
Drew Lock won't cost a lot of money this season. He will cost a lot less than $20 million. But you might make a good agent for him!
"What do you expect Pete to say about any of those questions ? ... ***"
... just tears, quite a good chuckle, thanks, KenJoe.
Few people or organizations are as honest as you, Ken. And beyond honesty, few reporters put in the work you do, so their reporting is filled with crap. Like all the mock draft guys who draft CB's for the Seahawks in the first round. Even when we don't need a CB.
I hear you, Ken. The Seahawks will likely need to draft a QB this year, if only as a backup for Drew Lock.
Thanks Stephen! You know, if Geno is tagged AND signs it, I'm gonna look pretty foolish! It has happened before. But I'll be astonished by how Seattle manages to pull that off because it seems no secret that the Seahawks have many needs and little cap space to do literally anything if they tag Geno. I just can't fathom how other writers don't address that.
It is a challenge to Not scoff at the rumors and 'reports' (also rumors) that are saying that Geno 'deserves' a $30-40M payday. Of the teams that need a QB - or want an upgrade - virtually None has the ability to dish out like has been suggested without making major cuts. If the Seahawks comply, how the heck can they and still field a full team under the salary cap?
Thank you Kenneth for being the voice of reality in that arena - as well as the Go-To guide for looking over the possibilities. There are so many moving parts to all this...
This copycat league saw with the most recent season going so very bad for virtually every high priced QB transfer. Plus, seeing just how incredible the Eagles did with their low priced talent as well as the half season the the Niner's got from the 2022 draft's last pick, one would think the league has been listening, even if the media has not.
BTW, even the Chiefs benefited Greatly from their rookie deals - they truly have loaded up on first contracts in so many other areas that they really have talent affordability to thank for hoisting the Lombardi as much as having the best QB and most explosive play-makers.
So in a year where there are 4 legit first-round signal callers plus a few middle-round possibilities, numerous options for trade and free-agency AND limited resources that QB needy teams can even tap into, it just does Not seem like Geno will be signed until After the draft unless he decides to be affordable (against his agent's advice) That is not likely to happen...
Even though I much prefer our Hawks to make their draft windfall investment on the D-line, the 'tea-leaves' I am reading say this draft will see a Seahawks' QB acquisition earlier VS later.
i keep waiting to discover some huge way to cap space that im just overlooking, as if maybe hey im the imposter or the fool. but i haven't found it yet!
The answer is an expected $40 to $50 million increase in the cap by 2025. As Cover12 referenced, KC benefited from Mahome's rookie contract and the massive extension that pushed his compensation to later years. It arrives in 2023 and they will have to make adjustments but I'm betting they were counting on the salary cap rise to absorb his $50 million dollar salary.
That's not the franchise tag. I'm only talking about the franchise tag.
Gotcha, but we all know that the franchise tag would only be to extend the neogiating period for an extension. I agree there's no way they'll use the tag unless they're 100% convinced an extension to lower the cap hit is imminent. I'm just pointing out that our 2023 options are acutally about the same with any strategy other than the franchise tag... which isn't happening.
As a very daily reader of the newsletter, you know I've addressed this many times with many details. So when you reply to my comment about waiting to see a gap in the salary cap, surely you know I'm talking about the 2023 cap and signing the franchise tag, not the scenarios I've laid out in the past and in this article for long-term contracts to spread out that hit. But am I betting on the Seahawks to absorb a $50 million cap hit on geno in the future? 1 million percent No.
There is another QB who watched and learned and did everything expected of him last season in preparation for taking on a bigger role. For all of the reasons discussed during training camp and preseason last year, plus a year of seasoning, Lock just could be Geno 2.0 while QB Draft Pick watches and learns. Is Lock the QBOTF? Not very likely. But he could be good enough running Waldron's scheme to be a useful, cheap, sturdy bridge while the rest of the team develops.
We never did really get to see Lock run the 1s after having prepared adequately to do so. Everyone talks about how much he sucked in the last preseason game vs Dallas, but he was coming off of Covid with limited time with the 1s. As a QB he has many of the same attributes as Goff, who was effective enough running the scheme Waldron is running to make it to the SB (with a little help from the refs in the NFCCG, mind you). Ya never know.
Pete talked highly of Lock on Tuesday too. I think he sees what you see.
I am leaning on this as a realistic option to my less realistic #1 option of paying Geno a contract that has a $10M max cap hit for 2023 and remains a trade candidate for the future after developing his affordable replacement.
His affordable replacement? I think people need to get over the idea that good QBs are going to be cheap, even on a rookie contract. A very good rookie isn't going to win a championship in his first year and probably not his second. Now you've got two, maybe three years of affordable if he signs and extension rather than the team picking up the fifth year option. Do you start all over again and draft a QB in year five? If the QB is good, Mahomes or Rodgers good, he's going to cost $60 million apy in year six. According to the Spotrac founder, the $60 million QB will hit as soon as next year. And this scenario assumes your draft pick doesn't turn out to be Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson.
As much as I'm aware that poor QB play could mean we stink next year so badly that we could pick in the top 5 again, I'm not one bit worried about it. If Geno gets his bag ($30+M) I pray it's with someone else. This would be just like the declining Russ years. We're trying to field a team when one guy is taking up too much of the cap in an organization that doesn't kick the can down the road like the Rams and Saints of old. We never let ourselves have a down year so we could get the cap in order and have draft capital for the future. I'd just as soon have one painful season of football watching and a bright future as barely make the playoffs and lose in the 1st round for the nth time. I don't know what kind of leash Carroll is on and if his job would be in jeopardy with a terrible season, though. But it feels like the "always compete" mantra hamstrings us from competing later with low draft picks and little cap space.
First, Pete and John committed to field a continuously competitive team. It has been their mantra since day one. Second, the cap is in order. According the the Spotrac founder, we're one of the teams in good shape now and for the future. Personally, I'd rather win every year than suck for a Super Bowl. As San Francisco has found out, you never know what's going to happen.
Fans start sharpening the pitchforks after just one loss. After hearing so many saying the expected few wins this year, they still couldn't stand losing and blamed anyone and everyone. Fire Pete! Start Drew Lock! One bad season and heads will start exploding.
The obvious criticism here is that there are a huge number of Seahawk fans and very few or perhaps none of them said both of those things.
I watched it, but I'm also a nobody
So, you're an ethereal, bodiless spirit then. Can you please wander into Pete/John's office an listen in?
Together, we are two-bodies!