The comments around Vegas lines startling. I have been sports betting for 20+ years.
Vegas is not the media. Vegas is not talking heads. Vegas may set lines to split bets but the way they do that is through modeling and letting professional bettors bet into the market and adjust the lines.
The market is what the collective world’s opinion is on the team.
But the thing I find interesting is that - I can’t find a negative article on the Seahawks? Where are all these talking heads downplaying the Seahawks? This is completely different than 2022 when everyone was crushing the Seahawks.
Maybe there are negative articles out there - but I don’t see any.
Which tells you … smart money is taking the under. The public perception is very positive on the hawks. Why the under? QB, offensive line, receiver… offensive struggles. The Seahawks have been good for so long and had great QB play for so long I think they don’t see what bad play can happen. The Hawks are not entitled to win 10 games. They will need to prove it.
I certainly think they can … but I don’t think it is the most likely outcome. I expect the offense to struggle. And offense is typically a better predictor of success than defense which is more volatile.
Also, I don't know that the public perception is high on the Seahawks... the draft grades have been good, but those two things don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Have you seen any reports of Seattle predicted to win or do well in the West? All the stories I have seen just praise the draft class. That's why the question of a disconnect is even raised here.
I, for one, appreciate your logical reasonings and takeaways from your not so Action Green glasses that a lot of us use here. Differing opinions are healthy and part of the fun in the discussion, IMHO. I tend to think and believe what you stated above, while hoping it turns out better. Lol. Par for the course for a lifelong 12!
Thank you! Surprised anyone likes my comments right now.
About perception. I just haven’t seen any negative articles or takes. I generally see positivity out there with Kubiak, Darnold, and the draft.
Didn’t Cowherd say this week the Hawks are making the playoffs? And I think I saw someone else say they will win a playoff game.
I think about 2022 or the draft class of 2011/12 when everyone was piling in on the Seahawks which made me very bullish on them.
Right now, I don’t see anything like that. Maybe I’m just not looking in the right places. If people see negative outlook takes I’d be interested in seeing them
What I know of gambling on the NFL matches with what you are saying about how the lines are set. However, I do want to push back a bit on your point that success is tied to offensive production.
Anecdotally, we all saw what LOB did to the highest scoring offense of all time. But, objectively, Jaydpauley.medium.com (among others) has published statistical analyses of this, and also the rankings according to NFL.com show that, on average, the Super Bowl teams' defenses are the 2.5th ranked in the league, while their offenses' average rank has been 10.5. Only a very small number of teams have had a defense not top 10, but the offenses frequently are. That's going back to 2000, so it captures modern rules favoring the offense.
Your point, though, still remains, holds water, and is very valid. There is an assumption that the odds are long because the sharp money is on the under. That said, as more information becomes available (practices, preseason, injuries, and games as the season progresses), the odds can and will move as this preseason prediction time gives way to real world results and observations.
Brandon of The Hawks Nest just finished a video on Vegas putting the Seahawks at 7.5 wins for the season. He went back and looked at the last 7 seasons of Vegas pre season predictions. It turns out Vegas under predicted the Seahawks win total in 6 of those 7 seasons by an average of 2.5 games under actual Seahawks wins for the year. So a Vegas prediction prior to the season of 7.5 wins would actually signal a 10 win season for the Seahawks. Brandon has the Seahawks at 10 to 12 wins for the upcoming year.
I did not know about that defensive stat. That makes sense. Thanks for sharing.
I also agree with your point on the line movement. The other big thing that will happen is when they raise limits and/or sharp bettors enter the market closer to season start.
My opinion is that 7.5 isn’t crazy. But I have the Seahawks at 8.5. Won’t be betting tho just an opinion.
Vegas does not make these predictions on a whim. These are highly efficient models bet into by professional bettors. Having said that - they are not perfect.
But I think the bear case is pretty easy to make on the Seahawks. The defense should be pretty good but they are weak at cornerback and they don’t really have a premium pass rusher on the edge.
But the clear question marks are on the offense. I look at the offense like it is a parlay. Parlays only win if you win all the bets. What are the bets?
The Seahawks have yjjr attend to to get all these right.
offensive coordinator- I can’t remember another team in any sport put more emphasis or Hope on a coaching change and what they expect it to bring. The plan is that Kubiak will change the 31st ranked offensive line into a powerhouse run and play action offense. Is that realistic or probable? What about offensive line depth? Who are the backup tackles? People think the outside zone run is some mythical strategy. That run play has been in NFL for 30+ years. This is not remotely similar to Mike Mac’s simulated pressure packages.
1st bet: offensive line will be good under Kubiak with little actual player changes
Off of the first bet there are two others. The run game will work. And the with a working run game and pass protection the QB will work. This appears to be optimistic. Sam Darnold is an almost identical QB to Daniel Jones. He puts the ball in harms way at a high rate, holds the ball too long (slow processing?) and takes sacks. He also mentally folded in the two biggest games of the year which is why the Vikings made a weak effort to sign him. The Seahawks offense also doesn’t have deep threat receivers. There is no DK Metcalf for defenses to prepare against. How will that affect JSN? Kupp is not a burner and at best the same receiver as JSN. Why would defenses not pack the box and force Darnold to try and beat them?
When I look at the schedule, I barely see any games in which the Seahawks will be favored by more than 3 points. Meaning that they are likely to play a bunch of 50/50 type games.
In the end, i am not betting the Hawks this year but if u had to I would also take O7.5 but that is just because I see the Hawks winning 8-9 games.
They completely messed up the offseason for the short term IMO. And next year the offense will likely struggle. So my O/U would be 8.5 and I agree that they are tied for lowest chances in division.
I do like there 3+ year outlook but they have to find a QB and actually retain their good players.
We need to be more like “show me” with our actions and pay less attention to the media stories of who is better or worse than who, who had a better draft, free agent haul, etc. Go Hawks!
What other people think matters not at all. In sports AND life.
In the media’s defense, everything on offense is string of question marks. I’m hopeful and optimistic, and there are reasons for that, but until we see it, it’s an unknown. But, that’s the part I love. What’s it gonna be? Mike has described what he wants it to look like, and if it looks like that, I’m all in. But I expect to see it in November not September. The ‘forming’ will take time.
I usually take the Talking Heads and the self anointed, football savants with a grain of salt, a wedge of lime and a shot Patron Tequila. Being from the far NW corner of the country we are always the underdogs.
I vividly remember how the great Payton Mannimg and the Denver Broncos were going to kill the Hawks by 2 to 3 TDs in SB XLV111..Seattle 43. Denver 8. It was real close game until Cam Bam Chancellor and the Legion hit the Broncos in the mouth a few times. I laughed so hard during the game I almost couldn't keep my beer down.
I still watch reruns when I need a good laugh.
Minus major injuries, I think the Hawks make the playoffs and the prognosticators will be shown to be nothing more than major market propagandist again.
Ken, Great inclusion of the JS interview. Did you see it because of the commenter yesterday? I loved it.
As a lifelong Seahawks fan, I am used to, and relish, the underdog role. Get 'em while they're sleeping on us! Freddie Krueger should be an unofficial mascot of ours, or at least someone needs to dress up like him in the stands.
First: Power ranking Seahawks as fourth in the NFC West is crazy. Secondly: Don't knock Freddie. He has a certain charm. Give him an orange cotton candy comb over and he would be a slam dunk for President!
Cool. I invite Vegas to count them out. I continue to detect Greatness in both the Coaches and Players and will place my 2 bets accordingly. Our GM shows no signs of wear and tear. Should be a better Vegas payoff for making the playoffs and hey, they came damn close to taking our Division. DK was a downer, as was watching Tyler scuttle out of bounds or lay down. Geno (yawn/stretch) was Geno, and still they damn near made it. No surprise they are gone. This is a fresh young team. They will find their personality. So what if Darnold reverts to prior sad performance, we have Lock and know he can sling the ball well enough to give our young QB time to adjust to the NFL. I have zero doubt many important things were learned riding herd on Russell Wilson.
Well, I don't care much what others think of us. Underestimating us is a national pastime. Let them have at it. Put in on the bulletin board. We're all we have. We're all we need.
Let's remember that Vegas odds are set to attract bets, not to reflect objective reality.
The objective reality does include an incredibly young offensive line, barring some kinda weirdness. And our draft did include some pretty high variance players, some with injury histories. Fine. But if just ONE of Emmanwori/Mills/Horton pans out, that's a solid draft. If ONE of Zabel/Milroe pans out, that's a solid draft.
I understand the national media's focus on Geno Smith, though if he stayed here they'd be calling him a mediocre QB on a mediocre team, so...I don't quite understand their fascination with DK.
Further, the national media/draft analysts seem not even to pay attention to the hiring of Kubiak, et. al, and to the system he's going to implement. So they're not assessing whether players on board FIT that system, or whether Kubiak's offense mitigates positional deficiencies, or whatever.
It's funny. I haven't lived in Seattle since '95. I had thought my old city had arrived on the national stage. Apparently not.
All that said, I THINK I'm one of the resident pessimists. I'm STILL picking them to go 12-4. Even though there are 17 games. I'll decide about the 17th when the schedule is released and I can look at the Thursday night/Monday night stuff. (OK, I couldn't do math the first time I typed 12-4 and am now riding the mistake.)
Only tangentially related to this article - but - I feel like they might get significant contributions from 9 of their 11 draft picks this year. First three plus Outsz should get significant snaps. Millroe will have the option packages. There's a clear path for the receivers to contribute. Martinez seems likely to get some snaps given his complementary style to the others. And, if Mills gets healthy - they need some more bodies along the line. Arguably, all those players are upgrades to their roster. A very good year seems dependent only on whether the coaching / scheme / Zabel can get the O Line to be decent.
And yet somehow it’s the Cards defensive draft picks that elevate them and yet, other than Nick, none of Seattles picks don’t elevate them? Weird thinking. But why we “love” these so called experts.
I don’t clam to be objective. I don’t really want to be objective about the Seahawks, but I do feel there are MANY objective reasons to believe the Seahawks are better in 2025 than 2024. They ended last season with a defense performing at near top 10 level. Everyone of consequence is coming back plus D-Law and Emmanwori. It’s year two of MM’s install and if he parallels what he did in Baltimore, this is a better defense. I believe the offense is also better, perhaps more so than the defense. It was dysfunctional last year under a college coordinator in Grubb. I think Darnold can be as good as Geno, and better in this system. I don’t think it will be hard to replace Lockett and DK in the aggregate as they both had less than 1000 yards last year. Then you add the fact that this year’s schedule is significantly easier than last year’s schedule.
This is why I have for some time felt this team will win 12 games, and Vegas and the so called “experts” have no clue what’s about to transpire.
DIVISIONAL GAMES:
4 WINS 2 LOSES - The Seahawks will sweep the Cardinals, and split with the Rams and 49ers.
REMAINING HOME GAMES:
4 WINS 1 LOSS - The Seahawks will beat the Colts and Saints, and will win 2 of their remaining three home games against the Bucs, Vikings and Texans.
REMAINING ROAD GAMES:
4 WINS 2 LOSES - The Seahawks will beat the Panthers, Jaguars and Titans, will lose to the Commanders, and will win one of their two remaining away games against the Steelers and Falcons.
2025 Seahawks record will be 12-5. Worst case scenario is 10-7, best case scenario is 14-3.
I’m all in on the defense, with you. Good progress last year, MM is repeating the Ravens track, young guys getting better, key additions providing depth.
Offense, I like all the moves, but it’s a lot of change to expect to be clicking out of the gate. D needs to win some games early. Ironically, it’s our crappy OL that has some of the most stability - returning 4 of 6 starters (including Fant). Big shuffle at WR and QB. And of course, brand new offensive staff and system, 3rd in 3 years (and most of these guys are so young they also had another system in college before that).
A big positive, I keep thinking about — Darnold did it last year, brand new in Minn. Do it again, baby. Second positive - a lot of guys in contract years. NFL guys perform when they’re playing for big money. Notably, Fant, Walker and Lucas, plus Cross in the window too even though he’s got the option year. Plus Darnold and Kupp kind of on one year deals. All works in our favor, but a lot of pieces need to come together.
It’s a major rebuild. This year’s version of what we did on D last year. Would be cool to hear SJ or others discuss some examples of how quickly other offenses have incorporated this much change and been successful.
I call it an offensive retooling vs rebuilding. I’m positive on Darnold working in the system. I think Kubiak wanted him all along. (Vs Geno) Kupp is working extremely hard and I can see him giving us a better year than Lockett gave us last year. If Horton hits, he will never have the mystique of DK, but I think he could be at least as valuable to our success. MM said in discussing Horton, ‘he can take the top off the defense and in this system (Kubiak’s) you need to be able to run all the routes.’ So Horton is a far more complete route runner and can stretch the defense with his sub 4.4 speed. He might provide more value to the offense overall than DK. AND he is a heck of a punt returner. There are so many new offensive coaches, but the up side of that is they’ve all worked with Kubiak, are very familiar with the system and can help speed the learning process with the new players. I think this will be a functioning offense. Something we didn’t truly have last year with 2 out of every three plays a passing play.
Should have ended the article by writing “better to get them while they’re asleep”.
Sorry about that!
Nothing better than bitter bettors.
No problem, You didn’t come up with your own projected Seahawks win total. Will you do it when the schedule is released?
The comments around Vegas lines startling. I have been sports betting for 20+ years.
Vegas is not the media. Vegas is not talking heads. Vegas may set lines to split bets but the way they do that is through modeling and letting professional bettors bet into the market and adjust the lines.
The market is what the collective world’s opinion is on the team.
But the thing I find interesting is that - I can’t find a negative article on the Seahawks? Where are all these talking heads downplaying the Seahawks? This is completely different than 2022 when everyone was crushing the Seahawks.
Maybe there are negative articles out there - but I don’t see any.
Which tells you … smart money is taking the under. The public perception is very positive on the hawks. Why the under? QB, offensive line, receiver… offensive struggles. The Seahawks have been good for so long and had great QB play for so long I think they don’t see what bad play can happen. The Hawks are not entitled to win 10 games. They will need to prove it.
I certainly think they can … but I don’t think it is the most likely outcome. I expect the offense to struggle. And offense is typically a better predictor of success than defense which is more volatile.
Also, I don't know that the public perception is high on the Seahawks... the draft grades have been good, but those two things don't necessarily go hand-in-hand. Have you seen any reports of Seattle predicted to win or do well in the West? All the stories I have seen just praise the draft class. That's why the question of a disconnect is even raised here.
I, for one, appreciate your logical reasonings and takeaways from your not so Action Green glasses that a lot of us use here. Differing opinions are healthy and part of the fun in the discussion, IMHO. I tend to think and believe what you stated above, while hoping it turns out better. Lol. Par for the course for a lifelong 12!
✌️
I need me a pair of those action green glasses. My rose colored glasses see 12 wins. I’ve got to see what I get from the action green tint!
Thank you! Surprised anyone likes my comments right now.
About perception. I just haven’t seen any negative articles or takes. I generally see positivity out there with Kubiak, Darnold, and the draft.
Didn’t Cowherd say this week the Hawks are making the playoffs? And I think I saw someone else say they will win a playoff game.
I think about 2022 or the draft class of 2011/12 when everyone was piling in on the Seahawks which made me very bullish on them.
Right now, I don’t see anything like that. Maybe I’m just not looking in the right places. If people see negative outlook takes I’d be interested in seeing them
Coward is a clown
💯
What I know of gambling on the NFL matches with what you are saying about how the lines are set. However, I do want to push back a bit on your point that success is tied to offensive production.
Anecdotally, we all saw what LOB did to the highest scoring offense of all time. But, objectively, Jaydpauley.medium.com (among others) has published statistical analyses of this, and also the rankings according to NFL.com show that, on average, the Super Bowl teams' defenses are the 2.5th ranked in the league, while their offenses' average rank has been 10.5. Only a very small number of teams have had a defense not top 10, but the offenses frequently are. That's going back to 2000, so it captures modern rules favoring the offense.
Your point, though, still remains, holds water, and is very valid. There is an assumption that the odds are long because the sharp money is on the under. That said, as more information becomes available (practices, preseason, injuries, and games as the season progresses), the odds can and will move as this preseason prediction time gives way to real world results and observations.
Brandon of The Hawks Nest just finished a video on Vegas putting the Seahawks at 7.5 wins for the season. He went back and looked at the last 7 seasons of Vegas pre season predictions. It turns out Vegas under predicted the Seahawks win total in 6 of those 7 seasons by an average of 2.5 games under actual Seahawks wins for the year. So a Vegas prediction prior to the season of 7.5 wins would actually signal a 10 win season for the Seahawks. Brandon has the Seahawks at 10 to 12 wins for the upcoming year.
Great comment. Very interesting.
I did not know about that defensive stat. That makes sense. Thanks for sharing.
I also agree with your point on the line movement. The other big thing that will happen is when they raise limits and/or sharp bettors enter the market closer to season start.
My opinion is that 7.5 isn’t crazy. But I have the Seahawks at 8.5. Won’t be betting tho just an opinion.
Vegas does not make these predictions on a whim. These are highly efficient models bet into by professional bettors. Having said that - they are not perfect.
But I think the bear case is pretty easy to make on the Seahawks. The defense should be pretty good but they are weak at cornerback and they don’t really have a premium pass rusher on the edge.
But the clear question marks are on the offense. I look at the offense like it is a parlay. Parlays only win if you win all the bets. What are the bets?
The Seahawks have yjjr attend to to get all these right.
offensive coordinator- I can’t remember another team in any sport put more emphasis or Hope on a coaching change and what they expect it to bring. The plan is that Kubiak will change the 31st ranked offensive line into a powerhouse run and play action offense. Is that realistic or probable? What about offensive line depth? Who are the backup tackles? People think the outside zone run is some mythical strategy. That run play has been in NFL for 30+ years. This is not remotely similar to Mike Mac’s simulated pressure packages.
1st bet: offensive line will be good under Kubiak with little actual player changes
Off of the first bet there are two others. The run game will work. And the with a working run game and pass protection the QB will work. This appears to be optimistic. Sam Darnold is an almost identical QB to Daniel Jones. He puts the ball in harms way at a high rate, holds the ball too long (slow processing?) and takes sacks. He also mentally folded in the two biggest games of the year which is why the Vikings made a weak effort to sign him. The Seahawks offense also doesn’t have deep threat receivers. There is no DK Metcalf for defenses to prepare against. How will that affect JSN? Kupp is not a burner and at best the same receiver as JSN. Why would defenses not pack the box and force Darnold to try and beat them?
When I look at the schedule, I barely see any games in which the Seahawks will be favored by more than 3 points. Meaning that they are likely to play a bunch of 50/50 type games.
In the end, i am not betting the Hawks this year but if u had to I would also take O7.5 but that is just because I see the Hawks winning 8-9 games.
They completely messed up the offseason for the short term IMO. And next year the offense will likely struggle. So my O/U would be 8.5 and I agree that they are tied for lowest chances in division.
I do like there 3+ year outlook but they have to find a QB and actually retain their good players.
We need to be more like “show me” with our actions and pay less attention to the media stories of who is better or worse than who, who had a better draft, free agent haul, etc. Go Hawks!
The old adage:
THAT's why they play the games!
What other people think matters not at all. In sports AND life.
In the media’s defense, everything on offense is string of question marks. I’m hopeful and optimistic, and there are reasons for that, but until we see it, it’s an unknown. But, that’s the part I love. What’s it gonna be? Mike has described what he wants it to look like, and if it looks like that, I’m all in. But I expect to see it in November not September. The ‘forming’ will take time.
I usually take the Talking Heads and the self anointed, football savants with a grain of salt, a wedge of lime and a shot Patron Tequila. Being from the far NW corner of the country we are always the underdogs.
I vividly remember how the great Payton Mannimg and the Denver Broncos were going to kill the Hawks by 2 to 3 TDs in SB XLV111..Seattle 43. Denver 8. It was real close game until Cam Bam Chancellor and the Legion hit the Broncos in the mouth a few times. I laughed so hard during the game I almost couldn't keep my beer down.
I still watch reruns when I need a good laugh.
Minus major injuries, I think the Hawks make the playoffs and the prognosticators will be shown to be nothing more than major market propagandist again.
“But I’ve seen 2, 4, 5, 6, and Freddy vs. Jason…movies that only a superfan could defend.”
Ten hours of your life down the drain.
Ken, Great inclusion of the JS interview. Did you see it because of the commenter yesterday? I loved it.
As a lifelong Seahawks fan, I am used to, and relish, the underdog role. Get 'em while they're sleeping on us! Freddie Krueger should be an unofficial mascot of ours, or at least someone needs to dress up like him in the stands.
1,2 'Hawks are coming for you
3,4 gonna slam that door
5,6 can't hide at Candlestick
7,8 Stafford's played too late
9,10 Cards'll lose againnnn
First: Power ranking Seahawks as fourth in the NFC West is crazy. Secondly: Don't knock Freddie. He has a certain charm. Give him an orange cotton candy comb over and he would be a slam dunk for President!
It’s like all these pundits didn’t watch last season when the Seahawks had a top 5 defense in the second half of the year.
Do they think what Mike McDonald did was a fluke?
Do they think that DK and Geno won 10 games and everyone else sucked?
Do they think Darian Grubb was an offensive genius and now that the Hawks have a real NFL offensive coordinator they won’t score?
All I known is it’s time to place a few bets on the Seahawks in Vegas. Those pundits don’t have a clue.
Darian? Jeesh. Ryan.
Brain fart.
It is always best to SNEAK UP on teams and STAND TALL at the end!!!
Cool. I invite Vegas to count them out. I continue to detect Greatness in both the Coaches and Players and will place my 2 bets accordingly. Our GM shows no signs of wear and tear. Should be a better Vegas payoff for making the playoffs and hey, they came damn close to taking our Division. DK was a downer, as was watching Tyler scuttle out of bounds or lay down. Geno (yawn/stretch) was Geno, and still they damn near made it. No surprise they are gone. This is a fresh young team. They will find their personality. So what if Darnold reverts to prior sad performance, we have Lock and know he can sling the ball well enough to give our young QB time to adjust to the NFL. I have zero doubt many important things were learned riding herd on Russell Wilson.
Well, I don't care much what others think of us. Underestimating us is a national pastime. Let them have at it. Put in on the bulletin board. We're all we have. We're all we need.
I can hear Richard Sherman right now!
First time I heard L.O.B. came from Sherm as he set his teeth into Crabtree. I attribute his Passion as what got the name rolling.
Crabtree, what a sorry ass receiver.
Let's remember that Vegas odds are set to attract bets, not to reflect objective reality.
The objective reality does include an incredibly young offensive line, barring some kinda weirdness. And our draft did include some pretty high variance players, some with injury histories. Fine. But if just ONE of Emmanwori/Mills/Horton pans out, that's a solid draft. If ONE of Zabel/Milroe pans out, that's a solid draft.
I understand the national media's focus on Geno Smith, though if he stayed here they'd be calling him a mediocre QB on a mediocre team, so...I don't quite understand their fascination with DK.
Further, the national media/draft analysts seem not even to pay attention to the hiring of Kubiak, et. al, and to the system he's going to implement. So they're not assessing whether players on board FIT that system, or whether Kubiak's offense mitigates positional deficiencies, or whatever.
It's funny. I haven't lived in Seattle since '95. I had thought my old city had arrived on the national stage. Apparently not.
All that said, I THINK I'm one of the resident pessimists. I'm STILL picking them to go 12-4. Even though there are 17 games. I'll decide about the 17th when the schedule is released and I can look at the Thursday night/Monday night stuff. (OK, I couldn't do math the first time I typed 12-4 and am now riding the mistake.)
More bulletin board stuff. Don't write back.
Only tangentially related to this article - but - I feel like they might get significant contributions from 9 of their 11 draft picks this year. First three plus Outsz should get significant snaps. Millroe will have the option packages. There's a clear path for the receivers to contribute. Martinez seems likely to get some snaps given his complementary style to the others. And, if Mills gets healthy - they need some more bodies along the line. Arguably, all those players are upgrades to their roster. A very good year seems dependent only on whether the coaching / scheme / Zabel can get the O Line to be decent.
I’m the opposite: I’ll be happy with a significant contribution from one draft pick (Zabel). Should Arroyo contribute, I’ll be ecstatic.
It’s not that I’m down on the draft class. It’s that I don’t expect much from rookies.
And yet somehow it’s the Cards defensive draft picks that elevate them and yet, other than Nick, none of Seattles picks don’t elevate them? Weird thinking. But why we “love” these so called experts.
I don’t clam to be objective. I don’t really want to be objective about the Seahawks, but I do feel there are MANY objective reasons to believe the Seahawks are better in 2025 than 2024. They ended last season with a defense performing at near top 10 level. Everyone of consequence is coming back plus D-Law and Emmanwori. It’s year two of MM’s install and if he parallels what he did in Baltimore, this is a better defense. I believe the offense is also better, perhaps more so than the defense. It was dysfunctional last year under a college coordinator in Grubb. I think Darnold can be as good as Geno, and better in this system. I don’t think it will be hard to replace Lockett and DK in the aggregate as they both had less than 1000 yards last year. Then you add the fact that this year’s schedule is significantly easier than last year’s schedule.
This is why I have for some time felt this team will win 12 games, and Vegas and the so called “experts” have no clue what’s about to transpire.
DIVISIONAL GAMES:
4 WINS 2 LOSES - The Seahawks will sweep the Cardinals, and split with the Rams and 49ers.
REMAINING HOME GAMES:
4 WINS 1 LOSS - The Seahawks will beat the Colts and Saints, and will win 2 of their remaining three home games against the Bucs, Vikings and Texans.
REMAINING ROAD GAMES:
4 WINS 2 LOSES - The Seahawks will beat the Panthers, Jaguars and Titans, will lose to the Commanders, and will win one of their two remaining away games against the Steelers and Falcons.
2025 Seahawks record will be 12-5. Worst case scenario is 10-7, best case scenario is 14-3.
I’m all in on the defense, with you. Good progress last year, MM is repeating the Ravens track, young guys getting better, key additions providing depth.
Offense, I like all the moves, but it’s a lot of change to expect to be clicking out of the gate. D needs to win some games early. Ironically, it’s our crappy OL that has some of the most stability - returning 4 of 6 starters (including Fant). Big shuffle at WR and QB. And of course, brand new offensive staff and system, 3rd in 3 years (and most of these guys are so young they also had another system in college before that).
A big positive, I keep thinking about — Darnold did it last year, brand new in Minn. Do it again, baby. Second positive - a lot of guys in contract years. NFL guys perform when they’re playing for big money. Notably, Fant, Walker and Lucas, plus Cross in the window too even though he’s got the option year. Plus Darnold and Kupp kind of on one year deals. All works in our favor, but a lot of pieces need to come together.
It’s a major rebuild. This year’s version of what we did on D last year. Would be cool to hear SJ or others discuss some examples of how quickly other offenses have incorporated this much change and been successful.
I call it an offensive retooling vs rebuilding. I’m positive on Darnold working in the system. I think Kubiak wanted him all along. (Vs Geno) Kupp is working extremely hard and I can see him giving us a better year than Lockett gave us last year. If Horton hits, he will never have the mystique of DK, but I think he could be at least as valuable to our success. MM said in discussing Horton, ‘he can take the top off the defense and in this system (Kubiak’s) you need to be able to run all the routes.’ So Horton is a far more complete route runner and can stretch the defense with his sub 4.4 speed. He might provide more value to the offense overall than DK. AND he is a heck of a punt returner. There are so many new offensive coaches, but the up side of that is they’ve all worked with Kubiak, are very familiar with the system and can help speed the learning process with the new players. I think this will be a functioning offense. Something we didn’t truly have last year with 2 out of every three plays a passing play.