Ranking the NFL rookie QBs through 3 games
What the post-game press conferences say about the NFL's "future leaders" at the position
We’ve seen more quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last decade than ever before. Since Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan led their teams to playoff appearances as rookies in 2008, followed by success stories like Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, and even Andy Dalton, it’s become more accepted than ever that first-year quarterbacks can handle the immense pressure of being a franchise player.
2021 harkens back to days of yore.
All five first round rookie quarterbacks have struggled well beyond the expectations placed on them by fans leading into the season, with the lone exception being the fact that Trey Lance isn’t better than Jimmy Garoppolo except when it’s the most critical play of the game apparently. But in reality, Trey Lance probably isn’t even close to as good as Garoppolo right now.
Going into the draft, I had the order close to the same order that they were selected in, except that my number three (Mac Jones) was a lot of people’s number five, and my number five (Justin Fields) was a lot of people’s number two or number one.
The order hasn’t changed much — nor should it with so little to go off of during a period of time when they should be expected to flounder — but I think some reality is setting in and perhaps I over-estimated the “next Tom Brady but not really.”
One thing that I’ve learned is to listen when a quarterback speaks and I believe that how all five of these quarterbacks reacted to their Week 3 losses says it all.
1. Trevor Lawrence
Stats: 64-of-118, 54.2%, 669 yards, 5 TD, 7 INT, 5.7 Y/A, 60.3 rating, 5 sacks
All told, it’s been a completely flat start for Lawrence, who ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every category and would be dead last if not for Wilson. He has thrown multiple interceptions in all three games and he had four turnovers in Week 3 against the Cardinals.
Yet somehow I’ve never been more excited to see the future of Trevor Lawrence in the NFL, because I’m super confident that this is a 20-year starter in the league.
Most 22-year-olds would not show this kind of poise and confidence following a loss, especially if that loss dropped the team to 0-3. Jacksonville might still be the league’s worst team but how would you feel if you played for the Jags and this guy was your leader? I would feel like….”This guy is our leader!”
Somehow, beyond reason that defies the logic I’ve lived my life by, there are people who find Lawrence’s behavior off-putting and they’d rather see him become an emotional lump after Jags losses. That’s not the material of a championship quarterback.
My pick of the 2020 draft — by far — was Justin Herbert. My pick of the 2021 draft — by far — is Trevor Lawrence.
Despite the numbers, Lawrence still looks good and I think his seven interceptions and two fumbles can easily be explained by “rookie mistakes.” Mistakes that Lawrence is intent on fixing. We might see 25-30 Lawrence turnovers in 2021 but that’s sort of what Jacksonville’s entire season is going to be about: mistakes that you correct in 2022. Lawrence took blame for this pick-six against Arizona (as he should have, but he wasn’t the person who dialed up the flea flicker or the player who missed his block to allow pressure in his face) and he will make these plays work in the future.
Lawrence is averaging 9.7 air yards per target, which is considerably longer than the 8.1 ADOT posted by Jaguars QBs in 2020, so it’s only a matter of time before the passing offense takes flight.
2. Zach Wilson
Stats: 58-of-105, 55.2%, 628 yards, 2 TD, 7 INT, 6.0 Y/A, 51.6 rating, 15 sacks
No quarterback has been worse this season than Wilson (at least no QB who has started more than one game) but he’s also been put in a situation that we’ve come to realize is so “un-winnable” for so many young players: going to the Jets.
Or really, going to any awful team for that matter.
The draft forces a marriage between the NFL’s worst teams and its brightest prospects and Zach Wilson is now playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines and supporting casts of weapons. When the Jets played the Broncos in Week 3, what is Wilson really meant to do? Be better than Denver’s entire defense all by himself?
Free agent wideout Corey Davis has dropped at least three passes on 22 targets. Running backs Michael Carter and Ty Johnson have each dropped two passes. Wilson has been pressured on 38.5% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL by five percentage points.
Following the loss to Denver to drop the Jets to 0-3, Wilson didn’t quite get the same “Best Leading Man” Oscar as Lawrence in his postgame press conference, but there’s still a level of maturity that goes way beyond his peers. He gives thorough, thoughtful, and astute answers to every question. This may seem like an odd way to judge quarterbacks but it is a position that requires traits that go well beyond 40-yard dash times and spinning balls through a tire.
Wilson next faces the Titans and Falcons, two defenses that I believe will allow for a “rebound” performance for the Jets rookie quarterback in the near future. Though I guess to rebound you would need to have been up in the air already, so maybe it’s just a bound.
Zach Wilson is bound to be better than the last three games.
3. Trey Lance
Stats: Four runs, three yards, one touchdown, 1-of-1, five yards, one touchdown
Without doing anything, Trey Lance still remains the third-best quarterback prospect in the 2021 class. Largely thanks to the performances of the two other candidates that we know of right now. Despite playing a minor role against the Packers in Week 3 — he scored a touchdown but I don’t want to overrate a single running play — Lance did give a post-game press conference interview and he seems pretty chill.
When will Lance replace Jimmy Garoppolo?
Garoppolo is not very good and that may eventually force Kyle’s Shana-hands if San Francisco finds themselves at .500 or worse later in the year, but given what we’ve seen from Justin Fields starting I think it is safe to say that the Niners don’t intend to turn anything over to Lance this year — other than a couple of designed plays per game.
4. Mac Jones
Stats: 81-of-120, 67.5%, 737 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 6.1 Y/A, 79.1 rating, 6 sacks
I had Jones as my third-rated QB entering the draft and you would probably think that him winning a starting job for Bill Belichick and having a couple of decent stats in the early going would only improve his stock, but we’ve yet to see anything terribly impressive from the fifth quarterback off the board. Watch every throw against the Saints in Week 3, and what you’ll see is a “Checkdown Charlie” who was trailing by double-digits for most of the contest. Even his touchdown throw to Kendrick Bourne was a thing of luck.
Jones finished with three interceptions against New Orleans. After the game, Jones seemed … perturbed. Maybe even ashamed?
Tight end Jonnu Smith has dropped three passes from Jones, and the Patriots have also dropped three more as a team, but this continues to be such a limited offense with a lack of an explosive element. You won’t get that from the Jones-to-Agholor connection.
Do the Patriots have their QB of the Future? It’s totally possible! It’s only been three games and Jones has “better numbers” than any other rookie quarterback this season. But there is only one reason that Jones is the only rookie quarterback who has started and won a game in 2021: he was facing Zach Wilson’s Jets.
5. Justin Fields
Stats: 14-of-35, 40%, 138 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 3.9 Y/A, 39.9 rating, 11 sacks
Just because I had him as my lowest rated quarterback of the top-five and didn’t project Fields as a first round pick, I will root for him to succeed and not gloat when things look terrible. It just so happens that Chicago’s offense looks terrible, even worse than the Jets.
You can’t blame Matt Nagy and the Bears offensive line for everything. Chicago was meant to be — and remains — a better team than the Jaguars or Jets, so why would Fields be treated any differently than Lawrence or Wilson?
In his debut start, Fields was sacked nine times, losing 67 yards, and he only threw for 68 yards. A net total of one passing yard — plus 12 rushing yards. Would Fields succeed in a better environment? I am sure that he would be more successful. But every single problem that I was concerned about on the field coming out of college remains an unsolved mystery with Fields and he should have never gone to a team that could have possibly asked him to start this soon.
Here’s Fields after the game.
It’s not his time right now.
What happened to Nick Foles?
2020 QB rankings
1. Justin Herbert
2. Joe Burrow
3. Jalen Hurts
4. Tua Tagovailoa
5. Jordan Love
Trevor Lawrence sorta reminds me of Brett Favre's rookie year with the Falcons. Trevor isn't quite the goofball that Brett was, but he does have that unshakeable confidence. And a coaching staff that doesn't know what the hell they're doing. Urban Meyer is a smart guy, and I'm sure he'll figure out this NFL stuff. So yeah, I could see Lawrence as a 20-year starter, even without getting shipped to Green Bay.