Good teams don't overpay for past performance. JS has made it clear over the past 15 years that he prefers to sit out the first round of free agency and just because they won a Super Bowl doesn't mean that philosophy is going to change. I don't realistically see Shaheed coming back unless it's at JS' price, and I think he's going to get a lot more on the open market. The WR market this year is weak.
I think that is some pretty solid analysis and I agree. Pay him for what he is - one of the best returners in the league, and a third option (at best) in the passing game.
Horton provides greater potential value than Shaheed, assuming he can stay on the field. More productive as a receiver, and a pretty solid returner in his own right. I get the health history Horton has had, and I get the investment in Shaheed, but overpaying for his services doesn't make sense. Give him a reasonable offer for a WR3 and call it a day. Otherwise, thank him for his service, and move on. Great guy who provided great memories. He's a Seahawk.
Would the Seahawks, without Shaheed, have beaten the Rams in the road to the #1 seed, giving them home field advantage? NO. What does that mean for the Superbowl?
Is field position of immense importance? YES
Was Shaheed a big part of that? YES
Do explosive plays change or establish the momentum of the game? YES
Shaheed may have only gotten 200 receiving yards with the Hawks, but he got 500 receiving yards with the Saints, so that's a total of 700 receiving yards for 2025!
He got 19 rushing yards with the Saints and 64 with the Hawks. 700 + 19 + 64 = 783 yards.
On top of that for Hawks - 210 yards on 13 punt rtrns & 418 yards on 18 kick rtrns = 628 yards, Plus he had 129 punt rtn yds & 29 on 1 kick rtn w/ the Saints. That = 786 total return yards.
783 receiving and rushing yards in 2025 and 786 return yards. That equals 1569 yards with the ball. Does that change the outlook at all? I think so. $18-27 for 3 years.
Speaking of FA, NFL.com just posted its Top 101 list (meaning, the avg per team should be 3) and we've got more than our fair share on the list, and higher -- including Rasheed at #12!
- Walker at #10
- Mafe at #11
- Rasheed at #12
- Coby at #38
- Tariq at #39
- Jobe at #64 (right after Dre'Mont Jones at #63, easy call there!)
“Shaheed played in 12 games for Seattle and had fewer receiving yards than Kenneth Walker. What’s the most a team should pay for that production from a 28-year-old wide…RECEIVER?”
Another way of looking at this is that Shaheed had explosive kick returns, punt returns, runs, and receptions in a league that currently puts a very high value on explosive plays. I don’t know how many other players delivered this—my guess is “few if any.” If you don’t pay the players who made plays, you won’t have much left.
Shaheed’s 17-game averages across a 4-year career:
Receiving: 51/748/14.7
Rushing: 9/64/7.4
Kick Return: 18/441/24.9
Punt Return: 26/338/13.2
I.e., One way or another, Shaheed produces 1500 yards per season.
We all saw how teams increasingly didn’t want any part of Shaheed as a kick returner and kicked into the end zone. This allowed the offense to start from the 35 after a kickoff, meaning that a 35yd drive put them in field goal position.
Shaheed turns 28 on Aug 31 and so has two full seasons before he hits 30. Surely there’s two or three year deal to be had here.
Need to Shaheed go if he is anywhere near 10mill a year. As the article said, he was a non-factor on offense. Horton can go back to returns if healthy next season.
Shaheed flashed in New Orleans what he can do as a deep route threat paired with a OSU WR1. The potential is there, and if we give him another 100yds lost to some DPI, his stats from this season flash it too - despite a gameplan that shifted heavily away from his primary abilities the deeper the season went.
He is not a Kupp style blocker & safety blanket. He's much more akin to NoE, you move him around, you motion him, you fire him straight at DB's at speed, you give him some sweeps into space. Shaheed can fill a role that is otherwise empty (Horton showed some good route running, but not the motion or sweep role).
And that's before you consider his usage on Special Teams.
I think he's a must sign. It relieves so much pressure from FA or the Draft. It gives Fleury a gadget tool to have fun with. Another off-season to build rapport with Darnold and we'd have the best 1-2 deep route set in the league by a margin, with a Kupp-Barner blanket underneath. Like, that's the receiver core you pray for when you're going to bed. Then you get to add Bobo and Arroyo. And a run game.
Fully aware i'm one of his biggest hype men. He isn't perfect, but on the balance of known quantity & known potential vs shooting at Day2 of the draft i'd rather spend the cash we easily have.
Sunk cost comment here is accurate. It doesn't matter what you "gave up" to get Sheed. Wouldn't Seattle gladly give up 4th and 5ths every year to win a SB? I mean...!!! So that's not a valid argument for paying the man more than his production or upside. Yes, field position threat is HUGE. Until the league decides to tinker with its kickoff rules again and maybe moves that reward line again because perhaps they decide the LZ thing is too gimmicky or whatever. Will they? Sure! It's the NFL. They do that all the time.
But if we presume Sheed's threat level is high as a returner (and he is VERY sure-handed on punts, too), and mmmmmaybe he and Darnold can click more in the offseason so he sees more targets, there's still Horton to consider. Whether or not he's fragile, we don't know, but say he develops into at least a decent No. 2. Say, also, that in year two Arroyo blossoms. He's fast, a big target, and was drafted as a multiple-threat guy. Basically, Bobo, but with wheels and the ability to do more dirty work because he's bigger. So where does Sheed fit now?
You have to think that Mike and John don't look at the situation nearly as sentimentally as Carroll used to. His love of the player got in the way, frequently, of the chess pieces. If Macdonald has any obvious "tell" in his thinking, it's in being almost overly analytical. He clearly cares about his team, his players, and will go to bat for them. But you can bet that if someone's not actually under contract, he'll look very clearly at the marketplace and not just what might be lost but what might be gained. He's obviously very good at seeing the reality of a situation. That's why two years ago he dumped two defenders who didn't work — especially in run support. Sheed was an amazing contributor, but had Horton not been hurt you can bet that never happens.
Going forward, they definitely need K9 more, but who knows? If you're looking for a template, consider KC's run. That meant FA had to help because consistent lower drafts and contracts maturing bleeds talent.
The final wild card (no pun here), is that we don't know about new ownership. For all the hand-wringing over a possible loss of level-headed-ness vs. owner meddling, you can also see an owner with looser purse strings than the Allens, who never did the "void year" games, etc. that you see around the league. Even a little more wiggle room there would help. And like you've seen with the Mariners, winning has its own upside. Players WANT to win. It's not always about $$. So if you're stuck in Miami or Cleveland and you see zero chance of ever getting to the dance, you might take a discount for that shot.
I love him, but Tory Horton seemed to be at least a better-than-average return man and was much more impactful as a receiver (I don't mean stats cuz I haven't looked them up, just is my recollection of his impact at WR). So if he can be kept for less than 3/$20 I'm good, otherwise we should just ride Horton -- he was just a rookie too, lots of growth yet to come.
The other maddening thing about Rasheed is he's always reaching up and looking at the refs for a flag, even while the ball is in the air! So he's slowing down rather than fighting for a catch. I don't think I've ever seen him fighting for a catch, much less winning? If anyone can get him past that it's Cooper Kupp but how much do you want to bet on that?
If the Raiders get him, I'm fine rolling with Horton both at WR2 and at PR/KR. Horton plus JSN and Kupp/Barner/Bobo/Arroyo? More than good enough.
That’s a fair point — but, would you therefore pay more than 3/$20 for Rasheed? If not, and if Horton also can’t be planned on, then we need another solution.
Level headed as always. I feel the same. I'm inclined to think Horton will be fine, also. It was Horton's health that made Shaheed more valuable to the team.
That was my thought reading through all the comments, too. We've already got Shaheed's replacement on the roster with Horton, and Horton has far more upside as a WR. I'd love to keep Shaheed, too, but Horton is the guy I want to see with an expanded role in the offense. The best thing for the Seahawks is if Horton and Arroyo demand 75+ targets next season, not Shaheed.
umm, i liked your comment for the 1st part but don't believe that receivers "can demand" a certain number of targets. That sounds a bit more like DK, and the targets have to go with the flow of specific games, the offense as well as the defense.
I didn't mean that they would literally demand targets.
Ideally, their hard work in practice and great execution of game day responsibilities would result in an expanded role within the offense next season. "Demand" is just easier to write.
I continue to believe -- until something shifts during free agency -- that the Seahawks need to keep one of their two explosive free agents: Walker v. Shaheed. In both cases I suspect that keeping the player means overpaying, at least by the metrics SSJ uses -- and I don't disagree with those metrics.
We have three meaningful draft choices. (I don't care about the 4 and 5 we gave up for Shaheed; we won the Super Bowl, it's a sunk cost.) Clearly we need to add a CB (or maybe S?) and an Edge. That leaves one choices to go after an explosive player. RB is in short supply, but there are a few interesting possibilities. WR is more easily found.
When considering Shaheed, let's remember that it's not just about the fancy TDs he scored. It's also about field position. New England simply conceded the 35-yard-line on kickoffs rather than FAFO. If he gets us that, frees up the box, and adds another 5-10 yards of field position on punts and kick-offs...that's value.
I think we get one of those two back. I just don't know which one, and I don't even know which one I prefer. So I shall trust the executive of the year to do right. And he has to do right in the locker room, too. Whatever happens, he has to make it right with the players who remain. (And I believe that he will.)
I'd like to keep both but if I had to choose, I'd like to keep Walker. I think his ceiling is still up there. His game improved once he started hitting the holes FASTER (not necessarily 'sooner'). I think that makes him even better than he was when he was doing the Samba in the backfield.
Agree. The Athletic projects Walker at 4/52M (13M AAV). and secondary receiver Josh Nailor—who has been touted here as a possible signing—at 3/36M (12M AAV). Moving from Walker so that you can sign someone like Nailor makes no sense at all.
I could see a contract for a bit more than Turpin. Shaheed is a bigger threat to take it to the house on every return. And that’s worth $.
I don’t think he’s a #2 receiver and shouldn’t be paid as such.
And dear lord, let’s not worry about who gets how many targets in the receiver room. Any player concerned about that is not buying into MOB. And if they’re not buying in, they don’t need to be in Seattle.
Good teams don't overpay for past performance. JS has made it clear over the past 15 years that he prefers to sit out the first round of free agency and just because they won a Super Bowl doesn't mean that philosophy is going to change. I don't realistically see Shaheed coming back unless it's at JS' price, and I think he's going to get a lot more on the open market. The WR market this year is weak.
I think that is some pretty solid analysis and I agree. Pay him for what he is - one of the best returners in the league, and a third option (at best) in the passing game.
Horton provides greater potential value than Shaheed, assuming he can stay on the field. More productive as a receiver, and a pretty solid returner in his own right. I get the health history Horton has had, and I get the investment in Shaheed, but overpaying for his services doesn't make sense. Give him a reasonable offer for a WR3 and call it a day. Otherwise, thank him for his service, and move on. Great guy who provided great memories. He's a Seahawk.
Questions:
Would the Seahawks, without Shaheed, have beaten the Rams in the road to the #1 seed, giving them home field advantage? NO. What does that mean for the Superbowl?
Is field position of immense importance? YES
Was Shaheed a big part of that? YES
Do explosive plays change or establish the momentum of the game? YES
Shaheed may have only gotten 200 receiving yards with the Hawks, but he got 500 receiving yards with the Saints, so that's a total of 700 receiving yards for 2025!
He got 19 rushing yards with the Saints and 64 with the Hawks. 700 + 19 + 64 = 783 yards.
On top of that for Hawks - 210 yards on 13 punt rtrns & 418 yards on 18 kick rtrns = 628 yards, Plus he had 129 punt rtn yds & 29 on 1 kick rtn w/ the Saints. That = 786 total return yards.
783 receiving and rushing yards in 2025 and 786 return yards. That equals 1569 yards with the ball. Does that change the outlook at all? I think so. $18-27 for 3 years.
Good information. Certainly makes his value look better when you consider all those things.
I'm a believer in Shahid and if JSN goes elsewhere doe insane money, Rashid will get more targets, receptions and TDs....in Seattle. Go Hawks!!!
Ah and PFF's list is out too, top 250 FA's:
- Walker #6
- Mafe #22
- Shaheed #26
- Tariq #46
- Coby #67 (right after Russ at #66)
- Nailor at #114
- Shaquill Griffin #200 (?)
- Josh Jones #239
You'd expect the average team to have 8 names out of a list of 250, we have 7 (and Jobe didn't make a list that includes Shaquill??). PFF truly sucks
Speaking of FA, NFL.com just posted its Top 101 list (meaning, the avg per team should be 3) and we've got more than our fair share on the list, and higher -- including Rasheed at #12!
- Walker at #10
- Mafe at #11
- Rasheed at #12
- Coby at #38
- Tariq at #39
- Jobe at #64 (right after Dre'Mont Jones at #63, easy call there!)
- Kenneth's sneaky favorite WRJalen Nailor at #70
“Shaheed played in 12 games for Seattle and had fewer receiving yards than Kenneth Walker. What’s the most a team should pay for that production from a 28-year-old wide…RECEIVER?”
Another way of looking at this is that Shaheed had explosive kick returns, punt returns, runs, and receptions in a league that currently puts a very high value on explosive plays. I don’t know how many other players delivered this—my guess is “few if any.” If you don’t pay the players who made plays, you won’t have much left.
Shaheed’s 17-game averages across a 4-year career:
Receiving: 51/748/14.7
Rushing: 9/64/7.4
Kick Return: 18/441/24.9
Punt Return: 26/338/13.2
I.e., One way or another, Shaheed produces 1500 yards per season.
We all saw how teams increasingly didn’t want any part of Shaheed as a kick returner and kicked into the end zone. This allowed the offense to start from the 35 after a kickoff, meaning that a 35yd drive put them in field goal position.
Shaheed turns 28 on Aug 31 and so has two full seasons before he hits 30. Surely there’s two or three year deal to be had here.
Love it!
Need to Shaheed go if he is anywhere near 10mill a year. As the article said, he was a non-factor on offense. Horton can go back to returns if healthy next season.
Shaheed flashed in New Orleans what he can do as a deep route threat paired with a OSU WR1. The potential is there, and if we give him another 100yds lost to some DPI, his stats from this season flash it too - despite a gameplan that shifted heavily away from his primary abilities the deeper the season went.
He is not a Kupp style blocker & safety blanket. He's much more akin to NoE, you move him around, you motion him, you fire him straight at DB's at speed, you give him some sweeps into space. Shaheed can fill a role that is otherwise empty (Horton showed some good route running, but not the motion or sweep role).
And that's before you consider his usage on Special Teams.
I think he's a must sign. It relieves so much pressure from FA or the Draft. It gives Fleury a gadget tool to have fun with. Another off-season to build rapport with Darnold and we'd have the best 1-2 deep route set in the league by a margin, with a Kupp-Barner blanket underneath. Like, that's the receiver core you pray for when you're going to bed. Then you get to add Bobo and Arroyo. And a run game.
Fully aware i'm one of his biggest hype men. He isn't perfect, but on the balance of known quantity & known potential vs shooting at Day2 of the draft i'd rather spend the cash we easily have.
Sunk cost comment here is accurate. It doesn't matter what you "gave up" to get Sheed. Wouldn't Seattle gladly give up 4th and 5ths every year to win a SB? I mean...!!! So that's not a valid argument for paying the man more than his production or upside. Yes, field position threat is HUGE. Until the league decides to tinker with its kickoff rules again and maybe moves that reward line again because perhaps they decide the LZ thing is too gimmicky or whatever. Will they? Sure! It's the NFL. They do that all the time.
But if we presume Sheed's threat level is high as a returner (and he is VERY sure-handed on punts, too), and mmmmmaybe he and Darnold can click more in the offseason so he sees more targets, there's still Horton to consider. Whether or not he's fragile, we don't know, but say he develops into at least a decent No. 2. Say, also, that in year two Arroyo blossoms. He's fast, a big target, and was drafted as a multiple-threat guy. Basically, Bobo, but with wheels and the ability to do more dirty work because he's bigger. So where does Sheed fit now?
You have to think that Mike and John don't look at the situation nearly as sentimentally as Carroll used to. His love of the player got in the way, frequently, of the chess pieces. If Macdonald has any obvious "tell" in his thinking, it's in being almost overly analytical. He clearly cares about his team, his players, and will go to bat for them. But you can bet that if someone's not actually under contract, he'll look very clearly at the marketplace and not just what might be lost but what might be gained. He's obviously very good at seeing the reality of a situation. That's why two years ago he dumped two defenders who didn't work — especially in run support. Sheed was an amazing contributor, but had Horton not been hurt you can bet that never happens.
Going forward, they definitely need K9 more, but who knows? If you're looking for a template, consider KC's run. That meant FA had to help because consistent lower drafts and contracts maturing bleeds talent.
The final wild card (no pun here), is that we don't know about new ownership. For all the hand-wringing over a possible loss of level-headed-ness vs. owner meddling, you can also see an owner with looser purse strings than the Allens, who never did the "void year" games, etc. that you see around the league. Even a little more wiggle room there would help. And like you've seen with the Mariners, winning has its own upside. Players WANT to win. It's not always about $$. So if you're stuck in Miami or Cleveland and you see zero chance of ever getting to the dance, you might take a discount for that shot.
Or if you're a D-Lineman in Dallas...
I love him, but Tory Horton seemed to be at least a better-than-average return man and was much more impactful as a receiver (I don't mean stats cuz I haven't looked them up, just is my recollection of his impact at WR). So if he can be kept for less than 3/$20 I'm good, otherwise we should just ride Horton -- he was just a rookie too, lots of growth yet to come.
The other maddening thing about Rasheed is he's always reaching up and looking at the refs for a flag, even while the ball is in the air! So he's slowing down rather than fighting for a catch. I don't think I've ever seen him fighting for a catch, much less winning? If anyone can get him past that it's Cooper Kupp but how much do you want to bet on that?
If the Raiders get him, I'm fine rolling with Horton both at WR2 and at PR/KR. Horton plus JSN and Kupp/Barner/Bobo/Arroyo? More than good enough.
Horton also couldn’t stay on the field and missed time in college because of injuries. I can’t see planning around him.
That’s a fair point — but, would you therefore pay more than 3/$20 for Rasheed? If not, and if Horton also can’t be planned on, then we need another solution.
I wouldn’t think twice about it.
I'd like to have RS just to have a chance to keep Horton healthy by having RS as return man. Horton looks great but kinda fragile.
Level headed as always. I feel the same. I'm inclined to think Horton will be fine, also. It was Horton's health that made Shaheed more valuable to the team.
That was my thought reading through all the comments, too. We've already got Shaheed's replacement on the roster with Horton, and Horton has far more upside as a WR. I'd love to keep Shaheed, too, but Horton is the guy I want to see with an expanded role in the offense. The best thing for the Seahawks is if Horton and Arroyo demand 75+ targets next season, not Shaheed.
umm, i liked your comment for the 1st part but don't believe that receivers "can demand" a certain number of targets. That sounds a bit more like DK, and the targets have to go with the flow of specific games, the offense as well as the defense.
I didn't mean that they would literally demand targets.
Ideally, their hard work in practice and great execution of game day responsibilities would result in an expanded role within the offense next season. "Demand" is just easier to write.
You meant "command" instead of "demand"?
Sure. Whatever. I like the word "demand." Either way it's the figurative use of a word to emphasize a point.
Was just trying to help you make your point.
That's fine. They would "earn" more targets from their effort 'n effect.
I continue to believe -- until something shifts during free agency -- that the Seahawks need to keep one of their two explosive free agents: Walker v. Shaheed. In both cases I suspect that keeping the player means overpaying, at least by the metrics SSJ uses -- and I don't disagree with those metrics.
We have three meaningful draft choices. (I don't care about the 4 and 5 we gave up for Shaheed; we won the Super Bowl, it's a sunk cost.) Clearly we need to add a CB (or maybe S?) and an Edge. That leaves one choices to go after an explosive player. RB is in short supply, but there are a few interesting possibilities. WR is more easily found.
When considering Shaheed, let's remember that it's not just about the fancy TDs he scored. It's also about field position. New England simply conceded the 35-yard-line on kickoffs rather than FAFO. If he gets us that, frees up the box, and adds another 5-10 yards of field position on punts and kick-offs...that's value.
I think we get one of those two back. I just don't know which one, and I don't even know which one I prefer. So I shall trust the executive of the year to do right. And he has to do right in the locker room, too. Whatever happens, he has to make it right with the players who remain. (And I believe that he will.)
I'd like to keep both but if I had to choose, I'd like to keep Walker. I think his ceiling is still up there. His game improved once he started hitting the holes FASTER (not necessarily 'sooner'). I think that makes him even better than he was when he was doing the Samba in the backfield.
Agree. The Athletic projects Walker at 4/52M (13M AAV). and secondary receiver Josh Nailor—who has been touted here as a possible signing—at 3/36M (12M AAV). Moving from Walker so that you can sign someone like Nailor makes no sense at all.
I could see a contract for a bit more than Turpin. Shaheed is a bigger threat to take it to the house on every return. And that’s worth $.
I don’t think he’s a #2 receiver and shouldn’t be paid as such.
And dear lord, let’s not worry about who gets how many targets in the receiver room. Any player concerned about that is not buying into MOB. And if they’re not buying in, they don’t need to be in Seattle.
Don’t overpay (easy for me to say).. But there is value as well to his presence on the field, motion plays, etc