Darnold has an arm and can make pinpoint throws. In the playoff run, we saw his decision making at another level. Even with the D and the run game, if he didn’t make the plays and the decisions he did, the Hawks would not have won. And I think there are only a few QBs that could’ve replicated what Darnold did. Having said that, the outcome of the conundrum will depend on the options that would be facing the Seahawks. What he asks for to be resigned will need to be compared against the options available. So until we get to this point, it’s hard to say what would happen. I’m just glad that he’s with us this upcoming season. Let’s go get another Lombardi!
Right on! Our D was sooo awesome, some folks didn't notice how awesome our O was. Bottom line: we're ALREADY relatively loaded for bear (*groan*...sorry), and with that JS off season wizardry I can easily see another Lombardi in our future. The "Dark Side" is poised to become a "Black Hole" swallowing up opposing offenses whole...and we're a tweak or two from a top 5 Offense (trade up for a Guardzilla...[Vega?] to dial Benton's Bruisers up a notch). I can not wait to see what, if any, progress Milroe has made in the pre-season. I am sooo hyped about our Hawks this year!!! Fortunately it's happy hour.
Agree totally with the QB overpay of under-performing players and the team of 70 needed to win with a limit on superstar pay. Superbowl winners will likely either need rookie QB stars, so they can pay the rest of the team, especially defense, or reasonably paid players, in order to keep on winning.
It's really about ego. Do you have to be the highest paid so your team suffers or is 30 million enough to live on and invest for a comfortable future? Brady showed that it works.
It's a harder decision for kids in their 20's.
Decent QB's protected because there's money for a good O line, and a couple of good receivers, will have more time and perform better, last longer and win playoffs. QB's rushed make poor plays, even Stafford did so when he was pressured, when we finally got to him.
QB's should be paid to manage the game, make good decisions, make good throws, and get the ball out in a timely manner, as well as being good leaders.
JS is a good GM and makes good decisions. Hopefully he can reason with JSN and Spoon. I think the team has a good culture that lends to that direction. Not saying to scrimp, just be reasonable for the good of the whole. "Play it again, Sam."
I see JS setting the stage for future success in the corporate entertainment football industry. Surely guys like Wilson realized the effect obscene salaries would have on the rest of his teammates. These costs have already removed most Fathers and Sons experiencing the thrills of rooting for your Home Team. What's next, cardboard cutouts of cheering fans in the stands? Oh wait, that's been done during Covid... No doubt, it's being looked into...
I remain [cautiously] optimistic that the previous love affair with overpaying vets was a Pete thing (though I still appreciate everything he did for the team). JS [thankfully] seems far more pragmatic and I'm hopeful that will continue even into Sam's decision year.
Is there any evidence that Darnold is likely to shoot for the skies on an extension? He seems pretty humble and team oriented to me. I could be wrong about that, but I hope he is what I’m seeing and, when it’s time to negotiate, he accepts a team-friendly deal.
I read Darnold that way as well. The problem is the agents drive things. They're good sales people and talk the players into holding out for more money cause they're worth it and they could get hurt, etc, they need their payday.
And why is that? The agent gets a percentage commission on the players salary. The bigger the salary the bigger the cut. For the agent, it's all about the money.
This is a fascinating conversation. And I have no idea what the Seahawks will do.
Sam Darnold was largely a fine QB. He also led the league in turnovers.
He was also largely irrelevant (meaning most QBs would win) in most games this year. He had an all time great defense and a run game.
After the biggest game of the year he played very poorly (4 interceptions). The team tightened the screws and went run game.
But, his best game of his career was the NFC Championship game.
However, last year his two worst games weee the two biggest games.
So where does that leave him?
As far as the NFL qb landscape goes … I just think many of them are similar. And what happens is the team around them, the oc, the line, the receivers, are not the same. But people tend to look at them like pitchers in baseball.
QBs aren’t pitchers in baseball,.. they are highly reliant on what’s going b on around them.
Last year, Geno was asked to throw the ball 56 times on the road in Detroit … this year … Sam Darnold “won” a playoff game throwing the ball 17 times! How is that even similar? In one game of work for Geno was 4 times the amount of t of work for sam. Thats crazy
Similarly, Stroud in a snow storm, was asked to throw the ball 47 times! The Seahawks under Kubiak and Mike Mac are never going to throw the ball that much especially in a snow storm
so what do I think?
I think there is a fairly large amount of t of QBs that are simarly talented. But because some teams place way too much responsibility on the QB and the media hypes up the QBs as saviors (somehow team wins is a qb stat) leads to bad evaluations.
Barely anyone evaluates a QB on their own play.
“Advanced” stats that claim to isolate Qb play? EPA? No way is that a QB stat… that is an offensive stat. CPOE? Are we sure that isn’t a receiver stat?
So I have these QBs and more roughly the same:
Darnold
Purdy
Geno
Goff
Stroud
T Law
Hurts
Caleb (low end)
Herbert
Maye
And people will say … how is that possible? How can a QB that wins 3 games as good as one that wins 14!?
Well we just saw it. How can Sam go from discarded QB that no one wants to Super Bowl champ? Becuase, when you are a good but not great QB, you can win. Period. Build the team.
Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, healthy Stafford … are tier 1
The rest are tier 2.
Kyler is tier 3.
And Brosmer, McCarthy etc … are unplayable.
Conclusion? This is why it was right to pivot from Geno to Darnold. Same tier. And if Stroud became available at $30M/yr or so … he would be a great value etc.
QBs are overpaid and overrated. It’s a media narrative that is just not true. Build a great team and enjoy sustained success. If Sam wants to get paid top dollar … let’s move on.
Seahawks have never drafted a qb high, traded for a QB, and haven’t recently paid the QBs demands. What does that tell ya?
You most definitely undervalued Sam Darnold's contribution. Who threw all of those passes to JSN? No turnovers in the playoffs. C'mon man. I guess I get your general point, but the guy had a better season than a number of the QB's you lumped him with.
I think that is what most people would say. And you and most people could be right.
But I think one thing that I am trying to highlight: we have very flawed methods for QB evaluation just of the QB.
The QB needs pass blocking. They need play calling. They need recievers.
So how do we know how good a QB is? TD passes aren’t going to tell us
Shoot look at Mendoza.
When he was the QB for Cal 1 year ago … he wasn’t even going to be invited to the combine. Now? No question #1 pick. What happened? Well he went to the best O line in the country with a great coaching and great receivers.
What about Darnold? What changed from Jets to SB winning QB? Sure we can say he got better himself but does that explain everything?
May be I’m under rating his contribution… but may be the default for most other people is to over rate the QBs contribution?
Sam will either curtail his future salary demands or JS will trade him for crucial draft picks in a few years. Once Millroe settles his nerves, we will be screaming to see him play as Wilson did in his initial years, especially if he announces an intent to make Seattle his Home Team.
Boy Howdy on AR. Both he and Milroe are exactly the kind of supremely gifted young athletes JS is looking for. Had he not gone at #4, we would have grabbed him at #5. Getting Spoon was a great pivot.
I do not expect to see the Seahawks move on from their SB winning QB.
I also don’t expect Sam to play hardball.
But, if he does, the hawks history with the QB position adds intrigue. And from around the league, does it make sense to pay anyone that much at the QB position?
Surely Sam appreciates MM dealing with his shortcomings by finally developing an effective running game, as we saw in the 17-passes game in the Playoffs. No doubt he's telling his agent to STFU.
Milroe? Really? When does he learn to read defenses, hang tough in the pocket before getting:" Happy feet, " and develops a modicum of accuracy ? Not soon, I think!
All anybody needs to know about the Jets..they just signed Geno Smith .the second worst QB in that league to replace Justin Fields, the worst QB.!
What people seem to forget is that despite all the BS. football is still a TEAM game. All the hype regarding Patriots QB Drake Maye ended up in the toilet when his line blocked like 5 Anthony Bradfords.
That's why smart GMs like JS won't overpay for any player regardless of position and that's why Tom Brady didn't demand
maximum contracts so his team could sign good players to help him win.
I actually came here to note that there's a difference between correlation (teams with high-paying QBs don't succeed) and causation (why that might be so).
Great points. The one thing I thought of while reading this is how much the college game has changed to cause this to happen in the NFL.
Players are clearly not getting developed as they used to in college. Apparently pro-style offenses in college and high school often don’t matter because one athlete can tilt the field. Not in the NFL, everyone is that one athlete that tilts the field.
Great topic for a discussion. I’ll go read the comments.
I am baffled by the theoretical decline in QB play. I mean, it's measurable, but I'm not sure what's being measured, exactly. Young QBs are selected for elite workshops and programs, are recruited into prestige high school programs (yeah, I know, rules...), and with NIL money are enabled to move around, take in different coaching, and play with and against the best. Look at the number of players from Indiana, Clemson, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Ohio State...etc....in this year's draft. Young QBs have access to more and better coaching, more and better physical training (including diet), and have ridiculous amounts of film to watch. Why, then, do they fail in the NFL? RBs and WRs don't (I know there's a failure rate there, but, still). And I realize college coaches feel no obligation to prepare their players for future employment. It still makes no sense. The law of averages aragues against the results we're seeing right now.
I find this topic fascinating, because the US system is so weirdly unique in how it uses college sports and for its size and population has incredibly small and few pro leagues.
You are correct in a way. If you compared say the pre-nfl pathways of Payton Manning and Trevor Lawrence all logic, all analysis tells you T-Law should have been the more prepared and ready to go NFL player.
And, here's the weird secret, he was. I think a big part of the current issue is players are perhaps too prepared or too developed for the current NFL. They come in without adequate room or skills to develop to meet the higher level of Defence now being deployed. Physically they are fully set but there is some mental blocking going on. Conversely it's why someone like Flacco or Rogers (or Rivers!) can still be effective, as they have the mental capacity to grow and adapt.
With youth sports and college sports now being so incredibly focused (and money driven) the creativity of growth is seemingly being beaten out of the prospects. With NIL now coming in and developing that's not strictly a bad thing as they can earn a career at college level. So why shouldn't they put focus there and guarantee their families comfortable lives? The NFL is no longer the sole target it once was and soon is going to need to do something to find a balance.
Long comment but I really find this topic so interesting and so nuanced, and right now in such a wild state of flux.
Also, the amount of time and money parents spend on kid athletes hoping for a college scholarship, any college, is frightening to watch. I mean, dude, you’re 5’9”, your kid isn’t playing in the NBA…
From my round house in the woods I could plausibly drive to pro soccer games in four cities, only one of which has an NFL franchise, and that’s the Bengals.
Stephen, I respectfully disagree. Lock has a clear ceiling…we have seen it with the Hawks and the Giants….he is the definition of a solid backup. Glad we have him, but I never want to see him as QB1 in Seattle. Milroe is an unknown - as Nick Saban told him at Alabama, don’t try to turn every play into a home run, make your plays, but protect the ball and avoid turnovers. I am hopeful that Milroe could develop, but time will tell.
So far the only QB who I have watched who has overcome the inability to throw with touch is Lamar Jackson, and he has not completely fixed his touch throws problem, and apparently never will.
I heard JS speaking recently, it might have been at the combine about his takes on using the money they had to put the best 70 players together to be the most competitive team out there to win another one. When he said that, I immediately thought of how disciplined he is and never chasing a player once he goes beyond a certain point. I know people think Shaheed got more than he’s worth, but I don’t think so. I think he was a better value at that number than K9 at $14.5 million. At least in JS’s opinion for building the most competitive roster. There is a chance Darnold will seek more than the Seahawks will pay. I have no doubt that figure will be affected by a plan B and C. If they see another QB who can be had for less, and the value of the money saved could improve the team with a new QB more than the loss of Darnold would detract from their chances, well Darnold will be playing elsewhere. Same goes for JSN. If his number goes into the stratosphere, he will no longer be a Seahawk. I know JS wants to extend JSN (and Spoon) this summer, but if he has to use the 5th year option, we will have to question if there will be an extension or is his number beyond what the Seahawks are willing pay?
The NFL has not figured out how to value returners under the dynamic kickoff rules. Considering that Shaheed’s contract is nothing special for a receiver, he’s a bargain.
Fun fact: In the three Seahawks-Rams games last year, the Rams elected to kick a touchback 16 out of 17 times. I.e., the Seahawks started 16 new possessions on the 35–thirty yards from FG range. How do you value that?
It won’t be a surprise to see him have a game with 200 yards and big runs. He’s insanely talented and explosive. But his body has always had a problem holding up for a full season. There was a reason he was kept under wraps by the Seahawks last year. it wasn’t that they did not want him to have a great year. They wanted him to have a great playoffs. They didn’t trust him to stay healthy with 20+ carries every week. But if you listen to Gregg Bell’s interview, K9 did not agree with the Seahawks using him as RB1a. He wanted to be a workhorse and maximize his production. He will get to do that in KC. We will see if he hold up and gets 1700+ yards or hits IR.
One thing you didn’t touch on directly but this is why Stafford and even geriatrics like Rodgers and Flacco etc are still around and winning. Flacco better stats than the waste known as Sanders. I noted a while back. Offensive lines and QBs are “weak” even though bigger and stronger and faster because college mostly “Madden Ball”. Not Pro Ball. Sort of telling our failed OC, Grubb, goes back to college and the #2 QB is his guy. Can work in college. Again example of why JS is thinking ahead. Said before that other than roster spot, Milroe is “freebie” for Hawks thanks to Raiders. Works out. Then awesome for the Hawks. Doesn’t, then maybe a late round pick.
It is the Defenses… The defenses are better, and are learning more and more about the intracies of the QB’s and the offenses of the 2020… WITH OURS BEING THE BEST!!! Keep with the philosophy!!!
This is partly true, especially as we come out of the recent NFL era where the passing game exploded to new levels through the late 00's and right through the 10's. So many rule changes made the game ever more QB friendly, as did so many new training methods. We witnessed a true golden age of QB's with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Mannings plural, Russel, Mahomes and on and on.
Defences have at long last caught up yes, but also we're seeing a change in generation of QB, eventually there was going to be a regression at the position, and there will be a re-emergence of a new strong age in QB at some stage in the future.
The more complicating factor the NFL, and American Football in general, will need to contend with are the changes at the College level. It is not longer a feeder system for the NFL, it is a professional league in its own right where players are not longer focusing on developing into NFL players but are instead focusing on being good College players. How this will continue to impact is going to be interesting to watch, especially if College continues to professionalize and moves to become a genuine challenger to the NFL establishment.
If Milroe pushes Lock for the backup job this preseason, it'll be a good sign that he's making strides toward QB competency. We haven't seen him in such a long time now that it's easy to forget how excited I was about him at one point. He clearly wasn't even ready to handle snaps yet, but a smart hard working kid with good coaching can go far in a short amount of time. I'll still be surprised if he's ever a solid starting QB, but I'll have some hope for him as long as he's a Seahawk.
I heard that the other day not everyone was a fan of my Survivor references, to which I say I understand. I just hope that my header to "skip to this headline below if you don't want to read this" was at least sufficient advice.
All I can offer as defense is that I watch Survivor literally all the time. Naturally it's going to seep into my work now and then. I don't push it on anyone because that's not my vibe, I don't like the phrase "Oh you have to see this..." To each their own.
But I find there are two types of Survivor people:
1-the ones who say "That show is STILL on TV???"
2-And people who love Survivor.
Over the years I'll have friend who ends up watching a season of Survivor because they know I love it. Not once has that person come back to me and said they didn't like it and then they'll continue to watch it. Every time they end up loving the show. This may not be your experience and most people will never watch it and that's OK with me but just some behind the scenes info on why this "old show from 25 years ago" is still top of mind for me. It's a miracle I only reference it a couple of times a year.
I've never seen an episode, and I am not bothered in the least. And the older I get, the fewer pop culture references I seem to get. But that's okay and I'm not going to vote you off the island for writing about it.
Hypothetical...if you could be on survivor but it meant you were going to end the streak just before setting some type of record, would you give up and go be on survivor?
"I, an individual, do not understand one thing, therefore everyone must bend to my will and never mention it again".
Ken, please never stop with references to Survivor, or Mad Men, or whatever show you're enjoying. A huge part of the charm of your work is the intertwining of non-sports metaphors and explainers.
Do I watch Survivor? Nope. Was I capable of understanding the point you used Survivor to make? Yes. Did it help elevate the article and make your point clearer and easier to parse? Absolutely!
You do you. We come here because of you and your style. Keep it up!
Yep. Already a fan of obscure references and non sequiturs, I find them, at times, spot on, or...sometimes head scratchers. I get it. Made a "Tribbles" reference to a youngish bar tender's blank stare recently. Doesn't matter. Arthur throws out a topic pickle ball and all us Seaside Joeweenians swat it all over the place. He's a great facilitator putting the (subject) ball in motion and I enjoy the responses he provokes from the Seaside peanut gallery just as much.
I don’t watch Survivor. But you explained enough of the relevant points and the personal story details that I instantly understood what your point was. It was effective for me.
Sidenote, one of my friends is John Carroll, who was the “most hated contestant ever on Survivor”. He’s actually a really great guy, and he still gets a lot of survivor love in the convention that happened all over.
I am not a fan of survivor, although I can understand why some people are. I get burned out of all reality tv, just not my thing. Yet I thoroughly enjoyed your use of survivor to provide thoughts on the raiders and ravens. I look forward to your article(s) each day because of the unique and creative ways you explore and explain football as you see it. Keep it up. 👍🏼
I’m a big survivor fan, maybe not as big as SSJ, but I love the show. I thought SSJ did a good job in giving a quick way out of the analog;y. So don’t read that part if you don’t like or know anything about the show.
The uptight knuckleheads who were upset can pound sand. I have zero interest in any of the those nonsense reality TV shows, but I respect that you enjoy Survivor and see it as a relatable lens through which to make a point. Just keep doing you. You are quite consistent in providing disclaimers and warnings to be sure that you're more emotionally-fragile readers aren't sucked into anything that might give them an excuse to be outraged.
Excuse me while I break kayfabe for a minute. The simple fact that you felt obliged to post this apology/explanation troubles me, and I have zero use for or interest in Survivor. You used and explained an example from pop culture to explain what was going on between the Ravens and the Raiders. It worked. Even for me.
I wrote for a living for thirty years. Wrote, edited, designed, published. All that stuff at the end of the dead tree era of magazines. You have no obligation to the page/screen other than to be the best, most thoughtful version of yourself you can summon. I subscribe to you, and to The New Yorker. I read you every day and I haven't opened a New Yorker in months. (This has to do more with my sanity and my need to avoid ingesting politics too often than anything else. But.)
Just catching up on some of the newsletters. I have not read the comments but “Russ” his hand is hilarious.
Darnold has an arm and can make pinpoint throws. In the playoff run, we saw his decision making at another level. Even with the D and the run game, if he didn’t make the plays and the decisions he did, the Hawks would not have won. And I think there are only a few QBs that could’ve replicated what Darnold did. Having said that, the outcome of the conundrum will depend on the options that would be facing the Seahawks. What he asks for to be resigned will need to be compared against the options available. So until we get to this point, it’s hard to say what would happen. I’m just glad that he’s with us this upcoming season. Let’s go get another Lombardi!
Right on! Our D was sooo awesome, some folks didn't notice how awesome our O was. Bottom line: we're ALREADY relatively loaded for bear (*groan*...sorry), and with that JS off season wizardry I can easily see another Lombardi in our future. The "Dark Side" is poised to become a "Black Hole" swallowing up opposing offenses whole...and we're a tweak or two from a top 5 Offense (trade up for a Guardzilla...[Vega?] to dial Benton's Bruisers up a notch). I can not wait to see what, if any, progress Milroe has made in the pre-season. I am sooo hyped about our Hawks this year!!! Fortunately it's happy hour.
But please no more Raider references…. haha
You speak for me here, Bear.
Agree totally with the QB overpay of under-performing players and the team of 70 needed to win with a limit on superstar pay. Superbowl winners will likely either need rookie QB stars, so they can pay the rest of the team, especially defense, or reasonably paid players, in order to keep on winning.
It's really about ego. Do you have to be the highest paid so your team suffers or is 30 million enough to live on and invest for a comfortable future? Brady showed that it works.
It's a harder decision for kids in their 20's.
Decent QB's protected because there's money for a good O line, and a couple of good receivers, will have more time and perform better, last longer and win playoffs. QB's rushed make poor plays, even Stafford did so when he was pressured, when we finally got to him.
QB's should be paid to manage the game, make good decisions, make good throws, and get the ball out in a timely manner, as well as being good leaders.
JS is a good GM and makes good decisions. Hopefully he can reason with JSN and Spoon. I think the team has a good culture that lends to that direction. Not saying to scrimp, just be reasonable for the good of the whole. "Play it again, Sam."
I see JS setting the stage for future success in the corporate entertainment football industry. Surely guys like Wilson realized the effect obscene salaries would have on the rest of his teammates. These costs have already removed most Fathers and Sons experiencing the thrills of rooting for your Home Team. What's next, cardboard cutouts of cheering fans in the stands? Oh wait, that's been done during Covid... No doubt, it's being looked into...
I remain [cautiously] optimistic that the previous love affair with overpaying vets was a Pete thing (though I still appreciate everything he did for the team). JS [thankfully] seems far more pragmatic and I'm hopeful that will continue even into Sam's decision year.
Is there any evidence that Darnold is likely to shoot for the skies on an extension? He seems pretty humble and team oriented to me. I could be wrong about that, but I hope he is what I’m seeing and, when it’s time to negotiate, he accepts a team-friendly deal.
I read Darnold that way as well. The problem is the agents drive things. They're good sales people and talk the players into holding out for more money cause they're worth it and they could get hurt, etc, they need their payday.
And why is that? The agent gets a percentage commission on the players salary. The bigger the salary the bigger the cut. For the agent, it's all about the money.
Yeah, I get that. I’m hoping he’s the Brady type who calls the shots.
This is a fascinating conversation. And I have no idea what the Seahawks will do.
Sam Darnold was largely a fine QB. He also led the league in turnovers.
He was also largely irrelevant (meaning most QBs would win) in most games this year. He had an all time great defense and a run game.
After the biggest game of the year he played very poorly (4 interceptions). The team tightened the screws and went run game.
But, his best game of his career was the NFC Championship game.
However, last year his two worst games weee the two biggest games.
So where does that leave him?
As far as the NFL qb landscape goes … I just think many of them are similar. And what happens is the team around them, the oc, the line, the receivers, are not the same. But people tend to look at them like pitchers in baseball.
QBs aren’t pitchers in baseball,.. they are highly reliant on what’s going b on around them.
Last year, Geno was asked to throw the ball 56 times on the road in Detroit … this year … Sam Darnold “won” a playoff game throwing the ball 17 times! How is that even similar? In one game of work for Geno was 4 times the amount of t of work for sam. Thats crazy
Similarly, Stroud in a snow storm, was asked to throw the ball 47 times! The Seahawks under Kubiak and Mike Mac are never going to throw the ball that much especially in a snow storm
so what do I think?
I think there is a fairly large amount of t of QBs that are simarly talented. But because some teams place way too much responsibility on the QB and the media hypes up the QBs as saviors (somehow team wins is a qb stat) leads to bad evaluations.
Barely anyone evaluates a QB on their own play.
“Advanced” stats that claim to isolate Qb play? EPA? No way is that a QB stat… that is an offensive stat. CPOE? Are we sure that isn’t a receiver stat?
So I have these QBs and more roughly the same:
Darnold
Purdy
Geno
Goff
Stroud
T Law
Hurts
Caleb (low end)
Herbert
Maye
And people will say … how is that possible? How can a QB that wins 3 games as good as one that wins 14!?
Well we just saw it. How can Sam go from discarded QB that no one wants to Super Bowl champ? Becuase, when you are a good but not great QB, you can win. Period. Build the team.
Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, healthy Stafford … are tier 1
The rest are tier 2.
Kyler is tier 3.
And Brosmer, McCarthy etc … are unplayable.
Conclusion? This is why it was right to pivot from Geno to Darnold. Same tier. And if Stroud became available at $30M/yr or so … he would be a great value etc.
QBs are overpaid and overrated. It’s a media narrative that is just not true. Build a great team and enjoy sustained success. If Sam wants to get paid top dollar … let’s move on.
Seahawks have never drafted a qb high, traded for a QB, and haven’t recently paid the QBs demands. What does that tell ya?
You most definitely undervalued Sam Darnold's contribution. Who threw all of those passes to JSN? No turnovers in the playoffs. C'mon man. I guess I get your general point, but the guy had a better season than a number of the QB's you lumped him with.
I think that is what most people would say. And you and most people could be right.
But I think one thing that I am trying to highlight: we have very flawed methods for QB evaluation just of the QB.
The QB needs pass blocking. They need play calling. They need recievers.
So how do we know how good a QB is? TD passes aren’t going to tell us
Shoot look at Mendoza.
When he was the QB for Cal 1 year ago … he wasn’t even going to be invited to the combine. Now? No question #1 pick. What happened? Well he went to the best O line in the country with a great coaching and great receivers.
What about Darnold? What changed from Jets to SB winning QB? Sure we can say he got better himself but does that explain everything?
May be I’m under rating his contribution… but may be the default for most other people is to over rate the QBs contribution?
Sam will either curtail his future salary demands or JS will trade him for crucial draft picks in a few years. Once Millroe settles his nerves, we will be screaming to see him play as Wilson did in his initial years, especially if he announces an intent to make Seattle his Home Team.
Always though the Seahawks were going to go get Anthony Richardson off the QB trash heap when he inevitably “failed” after being overdrafted.
But we will gladly take Milroe instead.
Boy Howdy on AR. Both he and Milroe are exactly the kind of supremely gifted young athletes JS is looking for. Had he not gone at #4, we would have grabbed him at #5. Getting Spoon was a great pivot.
I do not expect to see the Seahawks move on from their SB winning QB.
I also don’t expect Sam to play hardball.
But, if he does, the hawks history with the QB position adds intrigue. And from around the league, does it make sense to pay anyone that much at the QB position?
Will be very interesting to see what happens
Surely Sam appreciates MM dealing with his shortcomings by finally developing an effective running game, as we saw in the 17-passes game in the Playoffs. No doubt he's telling his agent to STFU.
Milroe? Really? When does he learn to read defenses, hang tough in the pocket before getting:" Happy feet, " and develops a modicum of accuracy ? Not soon, I think!
All anybody needs to know about the Jets..they just signed Geno Smith .the second worst QB in that league to replace Justin Fields, the worst QB.!
What people seem to forget is that despite all the BS. football is still a TEAM game. All the hype regarding Patriots QB Drake Maye ended up in the toilet when his line blocked like 5 Anthony Bradfords.
That's why smart GMs like JS won't overpay for any player regardless of position and that's why Tom Brady didn't demand
maximum contracts so his team could sign good players to help him win.
I actually came here to note that there's a difference between correlation (teams with high-paying QBs don't succeed) and causation (why that might be so).
Great points. The one thing I thought of while reading this is how much the college game has changed to cause this to happen in the NFL.
Players are clearly not getting developed as they used to in college. Apparently pro-style offenses in college and high school often don’t matter because one athlete can tilt the field. Not in the NFL, everyone is that one athlete that tilts the field.
Great topic for a discussion. I’ll go read the comments.
I am baffled by the theoretical decline in QB play. I mean, it's measurable, but I'm not sure what's being measured, exactly. Young QBs are selected for elite workshops and programs, are recruited into prestige high school programs (yeah, I know, rules...), and with NIL money are enabled to move around, take in different coaching, and play with and against the best. Look at the number of players from Indiana, Clemson, Texas A&M, Notre Dame, Ohio State...etc....in this year's draft. Young QBs have access to more and better coaching, more and better physical training (including diet), and have ridiculous amounts of film to watch. Why, then, do they fail in the NFL? RBs and WRs don't (I know there's a failure rate there, but, still). And I realize college coaches feel no obligation to prepare their players for future employment. It still makes no sense. The law of averages aragues against the results we're seeing right now.
I find this topic fascinating, because the US system is so weirdly unique in how it uses college sports and for its size and population has incredibly small and few pro leagues.
You are correct in a way. If you compared say the pre-nfl pathways of Payton Manning and Trevor Lawrence all logic, all analysis tells you T-Law should have been the more prepared and ready to go NFL player.
And, here's the weird secret, he was. I think a big part of the current issue is players are perhaps too prepared or too developed for the current NFL. They come in without adequate room or skills to develop to meet the higher level of Defence now being deployed. Physically they are fully set but there is some mental blocking going on. Conversely it's why someone like Flacco or Rogers (or Rivers!) can still be effective, as they have the mental capacity to grow and adapt.
With youth sports and college sports now being so incredibly focused (and money driven) the creativity of growth is seemingly being beaten out of the prospects. With NIL now coming in and developing that's not strictly a bad thing as they can earn a career at college level. So why shouldn't they put focus there and guarantee their families comfortable lives? The NFL is no longer the sole target it once was and soon is going to need to do something to find a balance.
Long comment but I really find this topic so interesting and so nuanced, and right now in such a wild state of flux.
Also, the amount of time and money parents spend on kid athletes hoping for a college scholarship, any college, is frightening to watch. I mean, dude, you’re 5’9”, your kid isn’t playing in the NBA…
From my round house in the woods I could plausibly drive to pro soccer games in four cities, only one of which has an NFL franchise, and that’s the Bengals.
You mention Milroe, but never mentioned Lock. I still have more belief in Lock then Milroe by a factor of 10.
Milroe more likely to be our RB1 than QB1 at this point imo...
Sign me up as a lock believer also.
I think he would do great in this offense and on this team.
Stephen, I respectfully disagree. Lock has a clear ceiling…we have seen it with the Hawks and the Giants….he is the definition of a solid backup. Glad we have him, but I never want to see him as QB1 in Seattle. Milroe is an unknown - as Nick Saban told him at Alabama, don’t try to turn every play into a home run, make your plays, but protect the ball and avoid turnovers. I am hopeful that Milroe could develop, but time will tell.
So far the only QB who I have watched who has overcome the inability to throw with touch is Lamar Jackson, and he has not completely fixed his touch throws problem, and apparently never will.
Keep hoping.
I heard JS speaking recently, it might have been at the combine about his takes on using the money they had to put the best 70 players together to be the most competitive team out there to win another one. When he said that, I immediately thought of how disciplined he is and never chasing a player once he goes beyond a certain point. I know people think Shaheed got more than he’s worth, but I don’t think so. I think he was a better value at that number than K9 at $14.5 million. At least in JS’s opinion for building the most competitive roster. There is a chance Darnold will seek more than the Seahawks will pay. I have no doubt that figure will be affected by a plan B and C. If they see another QB who can be had for less, and the value of the money saved could improve the team with a new QB more than the loss of Darnold would detract from their chances, well Darnold will be playing elsewhere. Same goes for JSN. If his number goes into the stratosphere, he will no longer be a Seahawk. I know JS wants to extend JSN (and Spoon) this summer, but if he has to use the 5th year option, we will have to question if there will be an extension or is his number beyond what the Seahawks are willing pay?
The NFL has not figured out how to value returners under the dynamic kickoff rules. Considering that Shaheed’s contract is nothing special for a receiver, he’s a bargain.
Fun fact: In the three Seahawks-Rams games last year, the Rams elected to kick a touchback 16 out of 17 times. I.e., the Seahawks started 16 new possessions on the 35–thirty yards from FG range. How do you value that?
Yes. Rasheed IS a bargain. I can see him in an expanded role as a WR in 2026. Speed matters.
Yes, he will work out his timing with Darnold in the offseason and preseason and I expect 700+ yards from him this year.
Very Highly. ... also, no fumbles, no blocks in-the-back penalties.
Exactly. Sixteen instances of a positive outcome with almost no chance of anything going wrong. In sports, that’s gold.
I also think he will be significantly better as a receiver with a whole offseason and preseason to work with Darnold on timing.
I predict he's gonna surprise some folks.
It won’t be a surprise to see him have a game with 200 yards and big runs. He’s insanely talented and explosive. But his body has always had a problem holding up for a full season. There was a reason he was kept under wraps by the Seahawks last year. it wasn’t that they did not want him to have a great year. They wanted him to have a great playoffs. They didn’t trust him to stay healthy with 20+ carries every week. But if you listen to Gregg Bell’s interview, K9 did not agree with the Seahawks using him as RB1a. He wanted to be a workhorse and maximize his production. He will get to do that in KC. We will see if he hold up and gets 1700+ yards or hits IR.
One thing you didn’t touch on directly but this is why Stafford and even geriatrics like Rodgers and Flacco etc are still around and winning. Flacco better stats than the waste known as Sanders. I noted a while back. Offensive lines and QBs are “weak” even though bigger and stronger and faster because college mostly “Madden Ball”. Not Pro Ball. Sort of telling our failed OC, Grubb, goes back to college and the #2 QB is his guy. Can work in college. Again example of why JS is thinking ahead. Said before that other than roster spot, Milroe is “freebie” for Hawks thanks to Raiders. Works out. Then awesome for the Hawks. Doesn’t, then maybe a late round pick.
It is the Defenses… The defenses are better, and are learning more and more about the intracies of the QB’s and the offenses of the 2020… WITH OURS BEING THE BEST!!! Keep with the philosophy!!!
This is partly true, especially as we come out of the recent NFL era where the passing game exploded to new levels through the late 00's and right through the 10's. So many rule changes made the game ever more QB friendly, as did so many new training methods. We witnessed a true golden age of QB's with Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, Rothlisberger, Mannings plural, Russel, Mahomes and on and on.
Defences have at long last caught up yes, but also we're seeing a change in generation of QB, eventually there was going to be a regression at the position, and there will be a re-emergence of a new strong age in QB at some stage in the future.
The more complicating factor the NFL, and American Football in general, will need to contend with are the changes at the College level. It is not longer a feeder system for the NFL, it is a professional league in its own right where players are not longer focusing on developing into NFL players but are instead focusing on being good College players. How this will continue to impact is going to be interesting to watch, especially if College continues to professionalize and moves to become a genuine challenger to the NFL establishment.
No team can pay all of its stars, and QB is not the engine that drives a Mike Macdonald team.
If Milroe pushes Lock for the backup job this preseason, it'll be a good sign that he's making strides toward QB competency. We haven't seen him in such a long time now that it's easy to forget how excited I was about him at one point. He clearly wasn't even ready to handle snaps yet, but a smart hard working kid with good coaching can go far in a short amount of time. I'll still be surprised if he's ever a solid starting QB, but I'll have some hope for him as long as he's a Seahawk.
I heard that the other day not everyone was a fan of my Survivor references, to which I say I understand. I just hope that my header to "skip to this headline below if you don't want to read this" was at least sufficient advice.
All I can offer as defense is that I watch Survivor literally all the time. Naturally it's going to seep into my work now and then. I don't push it on anyone because that's not my vibe, I don't like the phrase "Oh you have to see this..." To each their own.
But I find there are two types of Survivor people:
1-the ones who say "That show is STILL on TV???"
2-And people who love Survivor.
Over the years I'll have friend who ends up watching a season of Survivor because they know I love it. Not once has that person come back to me and said they didn't like it and then they'll continue to watch it. Every time they end up loving the show. This may not be your experience and most people will never watch it and that's OK with me but just some behind the scenes info on why this "old show from 25 years ago" is still top of mind for me. It's a miracle I only reference it a couple of times a year.
I've never seen an episode, and I am not bothered in the least. And the older I get, the fewer pop culture references I seem to get. But that's okay and I'm not going to vote you off the island for writing about it.
Hypothetical...if you could be on survivor but it meant you were going to end the streak just before setting some type of record, would you give up and go be on survivor?
And imagine they’re into season 50! What’s the longest running show of all time? The Tonight Show? Days of Our Lives?
"I, an individual, do not understand one thing, therefore everyone must bend to my will and never mention it again".
Ken, please never stop with references to Survivor, or Mad Men, or whatever show you're enjoying. A huge part of the charm of your work is the intertwining of non-sports metaphors and explainers.
Do I watch Survivor? Nope. Was I capable of understanding the point you used Survivor to make? Yes. Did it help elevate the article and make your point clearer and easier to parse? Absolutely!
You do you. We come here because of you and your style. Keep it up!
"You do you. We come here because of you and your style. Keep it up!"
Yeppers.
Yep. Already a fan of obscure references and non sequiturs, I find them, at times, spot on, or...sometimes head scratchers. I get it. Made a "Tribbles" reference to a youngish bar tender's blank stare recently. Doesn't matter. Arthur throws out a topic pickle ball and all us Seaside Joeweenians swat it all over the place. He's a great facilitator putting the (subject) ball in motion and I enjoy the responses he provokes from the Seaside peanut gallery just as much.
I don’t watch Survivor. But you explained enough of the relevant points and the personal story details that I instantly understood what your point was. It was effective for me.
Sidenote, one of my friends is John Carroll, who was the “most hated contestant ever on Survivor”. He’s actually a really great guy, and he still gets a lot of survivor love in the convention that happened all over.
I am not a fan of survivor, although I can understand why some people are. I get burned out of all reality tv, just not my thing. Yet I thoroughly enjoyed your use of survivor to provide thoughts on the raiders and ravens. I look forward to your article(s) each day because of the unique and creative ways you explore and explain football as you see it. Keep it up. 👍🏼
I’ve never seen Survivor in my life, so the references are lost on me. (Which is hardly the end of the world.) I usually get the point, though.
I’m a big survivor fan, maybe not as big as SSJ, but I love the show. I thought SSJ did a good job in giving a quick way out of the analog;y. So don’t read that part if you don’t like or know anything about the show.
The uptight knuckleheads who were upset can pound sand. I have zero interest in any of the those nonsense reality TV shows, but I respect that you enjoy Survivor and see it as a relatable lens through which to make a point. Just keep doing you. You are quite consistent in providing disclaimers and warnings to be sure that you're more emotionally-fragile readers aren't sucked into anything that might give them an excuse to be outraged.
Just keep doing you.
Excuse me while I break kayfabe for a minute. The simple fact that you felt obliged to post this apology/explanation troubles me, and I have zero use for or interest in Survivor. You used and explained an example from pop culture to explain what was going on between the Ravens and the Raiders. It worked. Even for me.
I wrote for a living for thirty years. Wrote, edited, designed, published. All that stuff at the end of the dead tree era of magazines. You have no obligation to the page/screen other than to be the best, most thoughtful version of yourself you can summon. I subscribe to you, and to The New Yorker. I read you every day and I haven't opened a New Yorker in months. (This has to do more with my sanity and my need to avoid ingesting politics too often than anything else. But.)
So...thanks for being you. Please keep it up.
💯 what Grant said.
... what Defjames said.
What Grant, Defjames, and Charley said. Except I don't subscribe to the New Yorker.
I have enjoyed most of one season, and parts of others, but it is addictive like cigarettes, coca cola, and pizza.
I love it!