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Mike McD's avatar

I have a hard time seeing Kubiak picking Sam Darnold. I think JS got blindsighted by Pete Carrol who stole Geno smith for a bag of peanuts (compare Geno trade to Russ). In which case, JS said, damn what now? And Sam Darnold was the best option.

But make no mistake, this sad plan B.

Who were the other options?

The most realistic second option is Daniel Jones.

Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold are basically identical QBs (in terms of advanced stats).

Daniel Jones’ “breakout” year was 2022. What’s the difference between DJ 2022 year and Sam Darnolds 2024 “breakout” year? Did the Seahawks just sign SD like the Giants signed DJ in 2023? Why or why not?

For the record, I like the chance in Daniel Jones also if we were to sign him. And I do think SD is the best case scenario in a post Geno world. But it is very much a back up plan to the plan A.

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AggieHawk's avatar

The breakout years, as you label them, are not the same statistically. Darnold had a passer rating over 100, Jones was at 92: that is a difference between pro bowl consideration versus serviceable starter if the team has a good run game. As a pessimist you could argue that Darnold’s breakout season was a complete anomaly because it was far higher than any other season he had previously (especially his Jets years) whereas Jones had a few meh seasons previously that his breakout year somewhat improved upon. It makes sense to me to gamble on the guy who demonstrated a far higher ceiling.

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Mike McD's avatar

I think both guys are worth the gamble after losing our starting QB. It makes sense to go with Darnold because of the Kubiak connection.

But it amazes me the perception of these two QBs is wildly different even though they have statistically been identical QBs over their careers.

There are differences of course between 2022 Jones and 2024 Darnold. I would also point out the WRs

Giants leading yards:

1) slayton

2) Richie James

3) Isiah Hodgins

Vikings leading receivers:

1) Justin Jefferson

2) Jordan Addison

3) TJ Hockenson

Is the statistical difference due to QB talent/play or environment around the QB?

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Paul G's avatar

Or schedule? Or team health? Statistical comparisons only go so far in the NFL.

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Mike McD's avatar

💯

I think it’s wild in a sport with so many players and so many variables … that people will cite “QB wins” as if that indicates their skill level.

Like judging Felix Hernandez by wins in baseball instead of ERA or other pitcher specific stats

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Micah Parsons @

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JIMMY JOHNSON's avatar

So, Hutch tells us Zabel may have talents in bringing a Voice to our OLine, which infers they haven't had anyone speaking up for them at podiums after games. Come to think of it, I don't recall any of them at the podium. He tells us how important a vocal guy can be in venting much tension or injecting humor to lighten the moods on the sidelines. In the Huddle. Hmmm...

I've got a wild idea: Who better to teach them how to speak to the media than the toughest player of all time? Yep, #24. Have Marshawn come in and interview them all as a group. "Teach" them how to speak to media, as he was so famous at doing. How many times was he fined for not speaking to the Press? In listening to Lynch, I guarantee I'd need an "interpreter", so let's bring in Gee Scott, the funny podcaster who started out washing players cars during practises. They fell in love with Gee. He made a whole lot of Something from Nothing. And nothing loosens tongues quicker than belly-laughing. In that laughter, we'd get to know each and every one of our Big Men. Plus it will break any phobia's a few may have under the hot lights. Hell, find a little bar somewhere and add beers during class. Double hell, Lockett probably owns one, so toss him in! Bring these guys together in a way that hasn't been done before.

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Chris H's avatar

Or, go back to how the Broncos line did it in their heyday, and NEVER talk. Although, the NFL probably doesn’t allow that anymore.

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JIMMY JOHNSON's avatar

I did not know that about the Broncs. Marshawn got fined for not attending, so he began attending. Never responded other than to point out he was avoiding another fine. It was a Kick. I'm all-in rooting for our Big Guys.

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Bob's avatar

Inquiring minds want to know, will Sam Darnold be better or worse than in 2024? Well, since scrambling to extend plays IS in his wheel house, it's not his strongest suit. So, it pretty much depends upon, begins and ends upon, it all depends upon what kind of 0-line is in front of him. So, in conclusion, special teams looks really good and LS Chris Stoll rocks! (something for non sequitar fans)

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Tim McConnell's avatar

Looking forward to a deep dive on Emmanwori. Mostly so I know if I should wear the jersey I just ordered or hide in in the back of my closet when I find out he's a weirdo or something. But based on the tape I have watched, I am VERY excited to see what this kid brings. And not to compare him to Chancellor, but Kam was one of my favorite all-time Seahawks, I love a safety that can bring the wood.

Side note - every year I debate whether to get a #1 Efron Herrera jersey, just to see if anyone knows who he was. I can't imagine there are too many others with his jersey anyway, so it would be a limited edition by default. I have vivid memories of his fake field goals while watching the Hawks as a kid, and it always cracked me up to watch him run or pass.

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Rusty's avatar

Herrera was a lot of fun to watch. He made the kicking game entertaining.

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Charley Filipek's avatar

Cool, Tim. "Now that's a name I haven't heard in a long, long time."

Yeppers, t'would be a limited edition 'n start some conversations.

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Bobric's avatar

I don’t see Hill as the comparison for Milroe. I would compare him to Kordell Stewart, Milroe is a better runner and passer in college than either.

However decision making and the interceptions are a concern.

I believe he will be much better than Hill in.a couple years. I have always wondered why QBs seem to be rarely swapped out in games. We may see 2 qbs in the backfield qbs cooling out for a series much like running backs etc. it’s going to be interesting to see how he is used.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Correct, Hill is not a comparison for Milroe.

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Scott M's avatar

Milroe is a lot like Lamar...give it some time to get straight, but it could be a fun ride watching Milroe develop.

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Bobric's avatar

I agree it will be interesting

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huevobueno's avatar

I would probably insert an all pro cornerback if I had my druthers. Would be nice to get back to a defense that blankets opposing receivers and where the opposing QB have no one to throw the ball to. Then we'd see more sacks.

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Danno's avatar

Maybe we have one in Wollen and Witherspoon. Wollen needs to want it and put everything he has into his play. His ability is elite, but his play is yet to match it.

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Scott M's avatar

Woolen seems to have a hard time seeing the play and when he does he has elite closing speed, but too often he's not seeing the ball early enough and it's late to the party... Plus he's soft on run support and tackling in general...

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Danno's avatar

Yeah, that’s why I was hoping for Will Johnson or Shevon Revel as draft picks, but maybe MM thinks he can bring him to the next level

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Danno's avatar
1dEdited

I loved your comment about Cross and remarking on his young age. At 24 he’s actually still developing physical strength. This should help his game improve. You need to consider he was above average last year as a tackle given a poor scheme to succeed in. Just look at how abysmal the rest of the O-line did. Then we have new coaches and scheme coming in. Cross, whose nickname is sweet feet, has the athletic skills to suit the scheme, and he now has the coaches who know how to maximize the o-live to succeed in it. I hope they are still trying to get him a longer term extension. I think he could be a pro bowl left tackle this season. If so, you can forget signing him for under 25 million APY. I say we climb on board the Cross train!

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Scott M's avatar

Vegas win totals are in:

49ers 10.5

Rams 9.5

Cardinals 8.5

Seahawks 7.5

Ooof! Thats how it goes sometimes. Those who danced were called crazy by those who could not hear the music...

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Mike McD's avatar

Yep.

I always find it funny to watch the disconnect between fans and the sports betting markets.

The blogs/fans/media reactions post draft make it seem like the Seahawks have won the SB and John Schneider is a genius.

I don’t see it that way. And I can’t find a single media/blogger/fan who is outspoken that sees it similar to me (maybe Mike Dugar). But then I look at the markets (Vegas) … the people with real skin in the game and I see the reality that I see. So sanity prevails.

I think they are right on the money.

This is a bad O line. A young o line that needs a ton to go right just to get to average. This is a team going from a tier 2 level QB to a tier 3 level QB who was unplayably bad in the biggest games of the year which is why the Vikings didn’t keep him. This is a team with no depth especially on the o line. Linebackers? Who even is starting at cornerback? And who is the depth there? This is a team that has no speed at WR and no threats to take the top off.

What is a defense game planing against a Seahawks offense?

I am not sure. There is a path forward but Klint Kubiak needs to have a Kyle Shanahan level offensive playcalling and Charles Cross needs to turn into Trent Williams, and Ken Walker to CMC, and Darnold into Purdy.

Could it happen? Yeah it could. Is it the most likely outcome? Not even close.

So for me… hate to say it … but Vegas looks … right (and I have bet against Vegas quite often especially with the Hawks for succes. But not this year. Too much Kool Aid drinking for me to bet them)

Go hawks, hopefully I am very wrong

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Charlie Gage's avatar

Seems like Vegas predicted 7 wins for the Seahawks last year and they won 10.

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Mike McD's avatar

I can’t remember what it was. But yeah the hawks have went over the O/U the last three years.

2022 was ridiculous at 6.5 wins. (That was a no brainer IMO).

So yeah, I disagree with Vegas at times and will bet.

But the big difference to me is… back in 2022 you couldn’t find barely anyone in the media that thought the hawks were good.

Now? I can’t find anyone that thinks the Seahawks are bad.

That is a big difference to me

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Surprising!

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huevobueno's avatar

What does Vegas know anyway? haha

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Danno's avatar

Vegas set the odds solely on making the most money, and not based on the reality of what is likely to happen.

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Mike McD's avatar

Here is the other problem.

If Vegas is setting the lines on trying to split bets … who is betting the under?

I can’t find a single negative article from anywhere on the Seahawks.

All I read and listen to day after day podcast after podcast espn take after roam take is how good the Seahawks are.

So who is betting the under? It looks to me like the smartest people are happy to take over bets on the Seahawks. Why?

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Danno's avatar

They are pretty dumb if you ask me. Kubiak preferred Darnold over Geno, we signed all of our important Seahawk free agents. We’re bringing back everyone important other than Lockett and DK, and we have Kupp MSV and Horton plus JSN is more experienced. The defense improved throughout last year, and should continue to be better. The offense will be significantly better. We are playing a weaker schedule and we won 10 games last year. 12 wins! Don’t worry, Be happy!

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Mike McD's avatar

I am very happy thanks.

Go out and bet it! It’s America you are allowed to make money!

Of course I do not recommend it. I don’t see the future going that way.

The offense is most likely to be not good. The QB is downgraded. The WR is downgraded (and what does that imply for JSN?). Run run 3rd and long for Darnold behind a bad o line?

I don’t know the future … but if you can’t see the bear case for the Seahawks … then put on the rose colored glasses and guzzle the kool aid and buckle up for the ride!

I will probably just sit back and root for the best but keep my expectations where my heads at.

Cheers

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Danno's avatar

I don’t gamble, and I do have a nice pair of rose colored glasses. I like the tint they give the season :)

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Mike McD's avatar

Not exactly.

Vegas builds models to set lines. They typically try to release them with lower limits. But what really sets the lines is better betting into them.

This is what makes the predictions market.

If they put hawks O/U at 7.5 and sharp bettors disagree - they will try to get the most money possible down on the over. That will adjust the line.

Right now the lines are set on “Vegas” (which is global now with pinnacle sports being the sharpest book in the world) setting the lines based on their models.

So yeah they are trying to split the bets … but it is based on the projections - otherwise “Vegas” will get destroyed by sharp money (when the limits increase)

Doesn’t mean they are right. But I always want to know why the line is where it is. In other words, why do people betting money disagree with me? Then I’ll make a decision to bet against them or not.

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Danno's avatar

They are wrong, the Seahawks are going to win 12 games. I have personally met Nick the Greek. He would have the Seahawks at 12 wins.

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Charlie Gage's avatar

I think the Seahawks are going to win at least 12 games. In MHO, they are already better on offense than they were a year ago.

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Danno's avatar

I’m with you 💯

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Mike McD's avatar

That is awesome.

If you are at 12 wins … by all means drive up to the casino and let her rip!

That would be an enormous return on investment.

And I disagree time to time. 2022 I crushed the markets. But the big difference there: I was on an island. No one thought the Seahawks would be good. I did and was rewarded.

This time around… I can’t find barely anyone that thinks the Seahawks are bad. So why is the line where it is?

That always will send shivers down my spine. But if you feel differently - by all means - make that money!

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JIMMY JOHNSON's avatar

I like your Vegas reality-check on my optimism, Mike. Our Year-2 Defense will minimize the needed performance from our Offense. Last year, I bet our new OC would exceed expectations, which obviously did not happen. Still, they tied with LA for wins, so it was a solid bet. I'll bet Kubiak will plant his flag this year, if only for those minimal expectations from Defense holding opponents out of our endzone. We won't need a high scoring Offense, so optimism isn't as much a factor. Kubiak and his crew are miles ahead of last year's group with the amount of experience they bring to bear. My optimism wants to see them excel hugely and we may very well see this if our Year-3 offensive linemen gel. They are bigger, stronger, faster and healthier. They know what needs to happen, performance wise. Vegas thinks that's not in the cards.

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Danno's avatar

I don’t gamble, and I would never advise anyone to do it on my assurances. The Seahawks are a better team playing an easier schedule. 7.5 wins does not compute!

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Tim McConnell's avatar

I would like to know if Washington teams have lower odds to win because we can't bet online in our state. Since Vegas money lines fluctuate with the amount of money being bet, ours would be lower because we have less people betting on the Seahawks. If my logic holds, then that could be why the Hawks always rank lower in Vegas books.

Anyone that has a better understanding of it, please enlighten me. I would love to know the answer.

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Danno's avatar

That would make sense. More money is being bet on SF and LA, so they raise the win totals to make it more difficult for those bettors to win, and therefore make it more likely for Vegas to make money. I grew up in NY city. Before online betting when the only betting was with local bookies (technically illegal) my uncle would drive to Philadelphia to bet on the Giants when they played the eagles. Why? Because in NY you only got 2 points when you bet on the underdog Giants. If you bet on them in Philadelphia, you got 4 or 5 points. The heavy betting on the Eagles in Philly drove up the points the local team needed to win by. Likewise in NY, the heavy betting on the Giants lowered the points the underdog Giants received.

With everything today, I doubt that local markets exist like this, but you can see how it might affect things in a way you’re describing.

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JIMMY JOHNSON's avatar

I'm tempted to lock in an Under bet on Frisco at 10.5. Two years ago, they beat the crap out of themselves getting to the Super Bowl. I doubt Time has been kind to them. But then they should be playing an easier schedule this year. 10.5 (11) feels wildly optimistic.

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Danno's avatar
1dEdited

I’m with you, but I don’t gamble. Too many people i know were very negatively impacted by it. If i were going to bet, it would be on the hawks over 7.5. I can’t see them going 7 and 10 this year. I think they’re more likely to have 10 wins than the 10 losses it would take to lose the bet.

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Danno's avatar

Danno win totals are also in for the Hawks: 12.4

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Grant Alden's avatar

I agree, but it's also possible those numbers reverse. Darnold could regress. Zabel could prove to be a journeyman IOL reserve. Emmanwori and Milroe, both acknowledged gambles, could roll snake eyes. Horton and Rylie Mills might not properly recover from the injuries which dropped them into our laps. Kupp could break. MVS could drop more key passes than DK. I don't THINK those scenarios are likely, and I'm betting on the coaches/front office to know their business as much as anything else. But nothing is given, and some is taken, eh?

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Danno's avatar

Nah, through my rose colored glasses things are looking mighty good. I’d rather be overly positive than consider the negatives. It’s just way more fun for me and I enjoy it far more. I’ll accept defeat only when the possibility of winning hits zero. And if that remote possibility of not winning happens, we move on to winning there brass ring next year. Naysayers and pessimists tend to be unhappy people. Life’s too short for me to entertain that. Especially at my age.

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Grant Alden's avatar

Well, I am Eyore, with a twinkle. And yet we both agree on 12-4!

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Danno's avatar

Yes, 12-5. I’ve seen the NFL go from 12 games to 14 to 16 and now 17, but not for long.

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