I've said it before, QBs like Russ who are successful immediately are exceedingly rare. He was a talented player with a strong work ethic, but also benefitted from being on a well rounded, talented team. Most 1st round picks go to a bad team and are given little or no chance to learn before starting their first game. I worked in a job where it was expected that it would take 2-4 years to become skilled enough to work alone and in which 50% of hires would fail and I didn't work in front of millions of people screaming and analyzing every mistake I made. it's unrealistic to expect great play from a rookie at any position and especially QB which is why I love the Hawks current plan. Two experienced, reasonably talented vets with a low risk/high reward rookie in the training zone. I hope Milroe works out, but if he doesn't then I hope they find another like him in two to three years. For those later round picks I like a Russ, Purdy, Milroe type with some skills and experience in a power conference.
Interestingly, Matt Hasselback made the same point on Hawkblogger's show this week. Matt also feels like the QB factory is a bit broken. It's complicated, but the secret to success hasn't really changed much perhaps.
- does the player have the make-up to be a great QB? Smart, tough, hard-working, dedicated, a leader.
- does the player have the technical skills, or the physical skills to develop mastery in those skills? Accuracy, release, footwork.
- does the player land in the right environment to be successful? Jets, Giants, Cleveland....no. KC, SF, Seattle......yes.
Players are what they are coming out of college. Very few are NFL ready, and those few only because of who they are and the environment they were developed in in HS and College. The rest need to land in a great spot in the NFL and put in the hard work to develop, assuming they have the traits and physical abilities required to become great.
Sam Darnold is a case in point. Does he have the make-up? He does. Does he have the physical skills? Yes. Did he land in the right environment? 1st, no. 2nd, no. 3rd, yes. 4th, yes. 5th, yes.
Daniel Jones situation is similar. What I don't know yet is whether Indy is the right environment. It seems like it is, as they have quite a bit of talent, and he was playing plenty good enough early in the year. He's been injured lately, so that's likely part of the drop-off, and of course defenses adjust as well to the OC.
The other factor that I really wonder about is how difficult it can be to play QB against all of these really good defenses. You basically need to be able to overlay defensive scheme on top of offense scheme on every snap, understand where the players are likely to end up, and get the ball to the right space.....on time, and accurately with 300 lb'ers hurtling towards you. You need to understand what you're seeing, make the right protection calls, and adjust the play call on-the-fly within a few seconds. Then adjust to what actually happens post-snap. That, my friends, is hard. Some brains are very good at that spatial awareness, and understanding how the playing field is evolving on every play. Some aren't.
Milroe may be a smart and very hard-working young man, and by all accounts he is. He may have all of the physical abilities in the world, and that appears to be in place as well. But he may never be a good QB because he just never is able to process the game at the speed it needs to be processed. Very few QB's can, no matter how many snaps they get. It's very, very hard.
I'd argue the mental part is more important than the physical part. Tom Brady was nothing special physically. But he had good feet, an efficient release, and a strong enough arm. Where he excelled is thinking the game. Always a step ahead, and was one of the most competitive, focused SOB's you'll ever see. Savagely competitive.
Perhaps the only thing that has changed is the number of players driven to do the hard work it takes to be a legit NFL QB, largely due to NIL money and all of the modern distractions that are now out there for young players. And if GM's haven't established a way to evaluate young players to see if they've got the make-up to be successful, then their franchises will continue to suffer. You don't need to bat 1.000, but you need to have a pretty good batting average.
To me it's shocking how the NFL seemingly forgot that letting your young QB sit for even a little bit is massively beneficial to their development, and the instant success QB is by far the exception and usually accompanied by an already strong team. I believe this is why we see a range of "busts" change teams and find a better way to be successful - the QBs have learned and grown and with new found confidence, and better surrounding teams & staff, reach new heights.
Bad teams stay bad, because they chase this magical scenario that has pretty much never existed in the NFL. The Jets & The Browns are the peak of this phenomenon, but it's one that infects the Panthers, the Titans and beyond. Good teams make reasoned long term choices, willing to sit in a holding pattern for a few seasons is needed. Thank heavens we are a good team!
On the broader point of QB's, and football players getting worse, that's a fascinating and complex topic. There's so so many factors at play here. For me one of the big ones not mentioned by other comments here - the increase in awareness of concussions, CTE and reduction/de-emphasis on contact football at youth levels. (This is not a "omg the wokeness is killing football, boys should hurt themselves for success). I also continue to stand by the College to NFL pipeline is busted, and more so since the correct introduction of NIL, where College now operates basically as a competitor to the NFL and is a notable reduction there on the focus to 'prepare' college players for the NFL when it's better for College to focus on making good college players.
There's so much that could be discussed on this point, relating to not just QB's but every position. I really enjoyed watching Coach Prime, and The Money Game, for their looks and insights into the modern college football/sports landscape. Follow those up with a revisit to All Or Nothing Michigan to see how in just a few years things have changed massively (all three on Amazon Prime, and hey follow those with It's In The Game, the story of Madden for even more contrast as to how the game has changed!).
Maybe it's not that QB's are "worse", we just tend to remember the good and not the majority. Maybe it's the game that's changed. Maybe we just exited a golden age of the NFL. And yes, maybe the new kids coming through have different ways of doing things, but i'm sure the same was said a decade ago, twenty years ago, thirty years ago. It's all just cycles and evolution.
You know, it seems to me as the Seahawks record has improved, the profanity in the newsletter has increased. Coincidence? Not complaining, just an observation.
I think we all know what a high bar the Seahawks place on character, leadership and love of the game when selecting players. It’s the reason we have Spoon. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons they are hitting on so many draft picks. MM also talks about players who love playing football. I am not sure how high the Hawks were on Richardson, and we may never know if we got lucky he wasn’t there at 5 or he wasn’t in consideration like they felt about Carter. Although we haven’t seen much from Milroe just yet, he does hit on all the character, work ethic, love of the game, and athletic traits. He does not strike me as someone playing games or living on twitter. He will have a whole NFL offseason to work on bettering himself. Maybe he shows a little more ability next year. Many people said it would be a two year project. He doesn’t strike me as the type of person to give up and just collect what he can and walk away. We have Drew Lock next year, so there is no rush if it does take 2 years of development for Milroe. If Sam, for some reason is not as good as he appears to be after year 2 in Seattle, Lock and Milroe could be given an opportunity.
Rivers is 3 years older than Rodgers. I just can’t see it. I have the E-man getting a strip sack on grandpa.
I wonder if it’s been made worse since the college players are now getting royalties and payments. I could suggest that this has created a reduction in reaching for the NFL because…well…they no longer have to to make some coin.
I think at least the Daniel Jones section a different fan base could cut and paste and change DJ to Sam Darnold and some would say is the same.
In fact, SD and Daniel Jones have had basically identical careers so far from an advanced stats perspective.
Also, the look ahead line was hawks -3.5 prior to DJs injury. Now? 13.5! Not saying all 10 points are atteibuted to DJ but a huge amount is. Which means, DJ effectively might be the most important QB or player in football based on the betting markets. Wild stuff, I think Lamar and most elite QBs are close to 6-7 points for example.
Obviously it depends on the backup.
Also, Daniel Jones was playing with a fractured tibia from probably around week 12 on. Prior to that he would’ve probably beat the rams in LA, except his WR didn’t cross the end zone line with the football and dropped it instead.
Prior to the fractured tibia, Daniel Jones was ahead of SD in MVP voting staying in the top 5 for most of the year.
I see the QB position differently. It is both the most important and most overrated position in sports.
I like what the Seahawks have done. The QB is not Superman. We didn’t spend a fortune in draft capital or money to get him. No, Sam Darnold is a good QB but has his issues. We have decided to build the best team around him and give him the best shot at being his best version. Mike Mac went out and got an offensive scheme that has huge advantages over the NFL.
I don’t think the NFL has a QB problem, I just think the NFL defenses have caught up. And if you don’t have a good coordinator (or truly elite QB), you are toast. I would bet that many QBs in the NFL would perform well on the Hawks. Shoot, I think Drew Lock would do well, and I don’t ever want the chance to see it. 🤞 😀
This is also to say, I like where SD is priced at. I would expect JS to keep his pay steady and within reason in a couple years when the new contract talks come up.
My comp for SD contract negotiations was … Daniel Jones. Unfortunately, that won’t help now with the injury
I think that just from my eyes that Sam Darnold has been an objectively better quarterback than Daniel Jones over the courses of their careers in both college and the NFL. Darnold has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he deserves to be a starter and he's been as good over the last 4 years (in 4 different systems, albeit barely any work in SF) as what Jones has been for half of one season with the Colts. It's just not fair in my eyes to say that Jones elevated himself to Darnold's level after 8 good games. If he had not torn his Achilles, I think there's a reasonable chance he would have played himself out of a job again before the end of the year.
I would be happy to give Jones the benefit of the doubt but unfortunately his latest injury makes it impossible. If he somehow returns and has a great season in 2026, we can start to talk about whether or not Jones is on par with Darnold. I just don't see any comparison between the two QBs based on their careers. Darnold is better.
Much of these comments sound similar to me to what outsiders say or have said of SD.
“It’s only 14 good games out of 17. He’s playing with Justin Jefferson. Etc etc.”
All I know to be a fact: is that their numbers are incredibly similar.
2018-2024
Even giving SD the Vikings year
SD: 54th in EPA, 48th in success rate, 51st in CPOE
DJ: 52 in EPA, 46th in success rate, 45th in CPOE
2025 prior to DJs fractured tibia
Weeks 1-11
SD: 4th in EPA, 1 in SR, 2 in CPOE
DJ: 6th in EPA, 2 in SR, 8 in CPOE
We can look at the similar games they’ve played (rams, cards, titans) and we will probably see a slight edge to DJ.
But my point isn’t who is better DJ or Sam. My belief and opinion is that the QB position is extremely important but overrated.That many QBs would have found success on the Hawks or the colts this year.
We see another example of this with Mac Jones in SF.
They can’t be max Brosmer or Anthony Richardson. But guys like SD and DJ that people once or still do consider busts but have talent can shine on a good team with a good OC.
I think it’ll happen again next year too … and I will be looking for my next SD, DJ to back.
The problem is simple...an infatuation with the new shinning object. IE the dual threat QB. The good high school RB with a good arm I has replaced the good athlete with a great arm!
The great QB whisperer Bill Walsh said, accurately, that the five skills he wanted in a QB was 1) intelligence. 2) accuracy. 3) movement in the pocket. 4) leadership and 5) Quick release. Note: nothing about arm strength or great running ability. Until the old requirements come back into vogue, the NFL will have more Murray's, Lance's. Richardson's , Strouds Hurts Milroes etc. And more and more injured QBs
For sure, definitely makes sense to me. I think the players you mention (for the most part) didn't quite realize that they were so good in HS and college because of how much better they were than the competition and sometimes how much better their supporting casts were. That's not going to help you in the NFL where everybody is an NFL player.
Is it the QB prospects at fault or college coaching and systems that do not prepare players for future employment? The draft pods I follow tend to argue the latter, fwiw.
Grant based on limited reading and I’ve been saying some of this now for a couple years, combo of a couple things. SJ and his list of who not to take examples. Players immaturity. And we see this in society a lot now. But also the change of college ball where so many don’t stick around to learn. Nil jumping for example. The stories I’ve been reading about how these giant OLine kids and their “failure” at the NFL level. College is what I call “Madden Football”. Non traditional play calling “stunts” OLine. Add that jumping around (see Kifflin or Wazzu coaching carousel) and perfecting one’s skills has decreased. An “apprentice” spends years honing his skills. Now players and some coaches jump and those the “honing” has decreased and instead seeing guys with incredible physical skills but lack real world skills. I’ll bring minuscule Flutie in. Or are past guys like Zorn and Kreig.
The draft analysts I listen to seem to think college QBs learning in two different systems is actually a plus, so long as they're on the field. That seems to be a big part of the problem: QBs, like Anthony Richardson, who just haven't played enough ball. Given the coaching carousel in the pros, it might be good training. I dunno. But it seems important to mention OLine as the other area whatever this problem is crops up. Not at WR, and not that I can tell on the defensive side of the ball. Which, if it were just NIL mobility and all that...it should impact both sides of the ball, right? Strongest candidate is the offensive schemes college coaches use, which maximize...I don't know. I mean, I really don't know. Maybe it's the hashmarks, but it seems like college runs simple offense that doesn't require much processing, and depends on simply having better athletes in key positions. Even that doesn't explain deficient line development...
I’m not disagreeing about QBs. College should be about education. When talent is disbursed as it is in college, those great athletes, WRs for example, can get away and show greatness against lesser skilled players. QBs look great when they have that incredible athlete, like Hunter. One reason AR looked so good. But was brief. Cam Ward incredible stats at Wazzu due to those receivers. But then when talent starts equalizing at the Pro level, guys get exposed. One reason we see teams like Rams or Hawks or Ravens tending to “restock” with names not always known. Gardner top 4 pick, and good. Much cheaper and really good Bryant falling and Hawks being him on board. I’ll take our DB room and upcoming draft picks over the Colts DB room. But totally agree with comment about QBs, if the QB actually learns.
I had no intention to discriminate on who's at fault although in hindsight the article puts the blame on the players. I think it's more of an environmental issue. NIL, transfer portal, social media, coaches, etc. etc. etc. Lots of variables at play for sure.
It's something environmental. However; NIL, the portal, media, and so on, also all apply to baseball, basketball, hockey and other college sports. Yet in those sports, there is not an overall 'drop' in talent. There's something unique to football at play, and that's for better paid people to figure out.
College is a different game. Just the hash marks change the game, and so many programs are pure shotgun air raid. At the highest level, it isn’t even “college” football. They get paid, and jump from school to school. Do we really think they (or 90% of them) are getting an education anymore? In my day, you would not be able to play if you fell below a 2.5 GPA. If that rule still exists, I bet they are majoring in basket weaving. The NFL should start a minor league like baseball. Same football rules as the NFL. You draft people out of high school and play in the western league or eastern league. Each pro team has its own minor league team. After 3 or 4years they either sign with the pro team or go to a draft of all 32 teams.
It could also possibly be NFL clubs not having the patience/development programs installed that are failing young QB's. I look at clubs like the Packers who developed a line from Farve, Rogers and Love and see 2 of the players are HOFers with 1 player making the NFC Championship in his young career. Then I look at the Jets and wonder how they could miss on so many 1st round selections.
It's probably a combination of a few different variables leading to this problem.
Hope Rivers needs a week to get acclimated and only plays vs SF. Still think we get the W if he starts this week, but Rivers always had that fire in him. He's a winner.
If we have anything to worry about, I would be seriously surprised. He has more chance of being carried out on a stretcher than he does of winning this game.
It seems to me that more QBs are drafted higher, which overvalues them. We expect higher picks to be better but no, the NFL is just full of unqualified players. Perhaps GMs should be on the hot seat?
Clarification on Joe Flacco: He could have been a better option on the market this year compared to other options on the market. Not necessarily a good option in general. I don't think Joe Flacco is an above-average QB, but it's kind of scary to think that's he's maybe average now based on how far the league has fallen.
The Falcons signed Steve DeBerg in 1998, when he was 44 years old, five years after his last game. He actually started a game and had a grand total of 369 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT over eight appearances. That Falcons team was exceptional though.
It sounds like the start of a ‘Bad News Bears’ kinda situation - a ‘rising from the ashes’ type of vibe. Good luck to Rivers, though. He’s a brave man entering back into the frying pan.
I've said it before, QBs like Russ who are successful immediately are exceedingly rare. He was a talented player with a strong work ethic, but also benefitted from being on a well rounded, talented team. Most 1st round picks go to a bad team and are given little or no chance to learn before starting their first game. I worked in a job where it was expected that it would take 2-4 years to become skilled enough to work alone and in which 50% of hires would fail and I didn't work in front of millions of people screaming and analyzing every mistake I made. it's unrealistic to expect great play from a rookie at any position and especially QB which is why I love the Hawks current plan. Two experienced, reasonably talented vets with a low risk/high reward rookie in the training zone. I hope Milroe works out, but if he doesn't then I hope they find another like him in two to three years. For those later round picks I like a Russ, Purdy, Milroe type with some skills and experience in a power conference.
Interestingly, Matt Hasselback made the same point on Hawkblogger's show this week. Matt also feels like the QB factory is a bit broken. It's complicated, but the secret to success hasn't really changed much perhaps.
- does the player have the make-up to be a great QB? Smart, tough, hard-working, dedicated, a leader.
- does the player have the technical skills, or the physical skills to develop mastery in those skills? Accuracy, release, footwork.
- does the player land in the right environment to be successful? Jets, Giants, Cleveland....no. KC, SF, Seattle......yes.
Players are what they are coming out of college. Very few are NFL ready, and those few only because of who they are and the environment they were developed in in HS and College. The rest need to land in a great spot in the NFL and put in the hard work to develop, assuming they have the traits and physical abilities required to become great.
Sam Darnold is a case in point. Does he have the make-up? He does. Does he have the physical skills? Yes. Did he land in the right environment? 1st, no. 2nd, no. 3rd, yes. 4th, yes. 5th, yes.
Daniel Jones situation is similar. What I don't know yet is whether Indy is the right environment. It seems like it is, as they have quite a bit of talent, and he was playing plenty good enough early in the year. He's been injured lately, so that's likely part of the drop-off, and of course defenses adjust as well to the OC.
The other factor that I really wonder about is how difficult it can be to play QB against all of these really good defenses. You basically need to be able to overlay defensive scheme on top of offense scheme on every snap, understand where the players are likely to end up, and get the ball to the right space.....on time, and accurately with 300 lb'ers hurtling towards you. You need to understand what you're seeing, make the right protection calls, and adjust the play call on-the-fly within a few seconds. Then adjust to what actually happens post-snap. That, my friends, is hard. Some brains are very good at that spatial awareness, and understanding how the playing field is evolving on every play. Some aren't.
Milroe may be a smart and very hard-working young man, and by all accounts he is. He may have all of the physical abilities in the world, and that appears to be in place as well. But he may never be a good QB because he just never is able to process the game at the speed it needs to be processed. Very few QB's can, no matter how many snaps they get. It's very, very hard.
I'd argue the mental part is more important than the physical part. Tom Brady was nothing special physically. But he had good feet, an efficient release, and a strong enough arm. Where he excelled is thinking the game. Always a step ahead, and was one of the most competitive, focused SOB's you'll ever see. Savagely competitive.
Perhaps the only thing that has changed is the number of players driven to do the hard work it takes to be a legit NFL QB, largely due to NIL money and all of the modern distractions that are now out there for young players. And if GM's haven't established a way to evaluate young players to see if they've got the make-up to be successful, then their franchises will continue to suffer. You don't need to bat 1.000, but you need to have a pretty good batting average.
I loved everything about this EXCEPT the last paragraph, which I believe the jury is still out on.
To me it's shocking how the NFL seemingly forgot that letting your young QB sit for even a little bit is massively beneficial to their development, and the instant success QB is by far the exception and usually accompanied by an already strong team. I believe this is why we see a range of "busts" change teams and find a better way to be successful - the QBs have learned and grown and with new found confidence, and better surrounding teams & staff, reach new heights.
Bad teams stay bad, because they chase this magical scenario that has pretty much never existed in the NFL. The Jets & The Browns are the peak of this phenomenon, but it's one that infects the Panthers, the Titans and beyond. Good teams make reasoned long term choices, willing to sit in a holding pattern for a few seasons is needed. Thank heavens we are a good team!
On the broader point of QB's, and football players getting worse, that's a fascinating and complex topic. There's so so many factors at play here. For me one of the big ones not mentioned by other comments here - the increase in awareness of concussions, CTE and reduction/de-emphasis on contact football at youth levels. (This is not a "omg the wokeness is killing football, boys should hurt themselves for success). I also continue to stand by the College to NFL pipeline is busted, and more so since the correct introduction of NIL, where College now operates basically as a competitor to the NFL and is a notable reduction there on the focus to 'prepare' college players for the NFL when it's better for College to focus on making good college players.
There's so much that could be discussed on this point, relating to not just QB's but every position. I really enjoyed watching Coach Prime, and The Money Game, for their looks and insights into the modern college football/sports landscape. Follow those up with a revisit to All Or Nothing Michigan to see how in just a few years things have changed massively (all three on Amazon Prime, and hey follow those with It's In The Game, the story of Madden for even more contrast as to how the game has changed!).
Maybe it's not that QB's are "worse", we just tend to remember the good and not the majority. Maybe it's the game that's changed. Maybe we just exited a golden age of the NFL. And yes, maybe the new kids coming through have different ways of doing things, but i'm sure the same was said a decade ago, twenty years ago, thirty years ago. It's all just cycles and evolution.
Boy that got long and ranty - sorry!
You know, it seems to me as the Seahawks record has improved, the profanity in the newsletter has increased. Coincidence? Not complaining, just an observation.
I hope that trend continues. F-bombs incoming!
I think we all know what a high bar the Seahawks place on character, leadership and love of the game when selecting players. It’s the reason we have Spoon. Perhaps that’s one of the reasons they are hitting on so many draft picks. MM also talks about players who love playing football. I am not sure how high the Hawks were on Richardson, and we may never know if we got lucky he wasn’t there at 5 or he wasn’t in consideration like they felt about Carter. Although we haven’t seen much from Milroe just yet, he does hit on all the character, work ethic, love of the game, and athletic traits. He does not strike me as someone playing games or living on twitter. He will have a whole NFL offseason to work on bettering himself. Maybe he shows a little more ability next year. Many people said it would be a two year project. He doesn’t strike me as the type of person to give up and just collect what he can and walk away. We have Drew Lock next year, so there is no rush if it does take 2 years of development for Milroe. If Sam, for some reason is not as good as he appears to be after year 2 in Seattle, Lock and Milroe could be given an opportunity.
Rivers is 3 years older than Rodgers. I just can’t see it. I have the E-man getting a strip sack on grandpa.
I think you see a guy like JSN and Spoon and you see the Seahawks placed a high priority on players with self-discipline.
I wonder if it’s been made worse since the college players are now getting royalties and payments. I could suggest that this has created a reduction in reaching for the NFL because…well…they no longer have to to make some coin.
Interesting article.
I think at least the Daniel Jones section a different fan base could cut and paste and change DJ to Sam Darnold and some would say is the same.
In fact, SD and Daniel Jones have had basically identical careers so far from an advanced stats perspective.
Also, the look ahead line was hawks -3.5 prior to DJs injury. Now? 13.5! Not saying all 10 points are atteibuted to DJ but a huge amount is. Which means, DJ effectively might be the most important QB or player in football based on the betting markets. Wild stuff, I think Lamar and most elite QBs are close to 6-7 points for example.
Obviously it depends on the backup.
Also, Daniel Jones was playing with a fractured tibia from probably around week 12 on. Prior to that he would’ve probably beat the rams in LA, except his WR didn’t cross the end zone line with the football and dropped it instead.
Prior to the fractured tibia, Daniel Jones was ahead of SD in MVP voting staying in the top 5 for most of the year.
I see the QB position differently. It is both the most important and most overrated position in sports.
I like what the Seahawks have done. The QB is not Superman. We didn’t spend a fortune in draft capital or money to get him. No, Sam Darnold is a good QB but has his issues. We have decided to build the best team around him and give him the best shot at being his best version. Mike Mac went out and got an offensive scheme that has huge advantages over the NFL.
I don’t think the NFL has a QB problem, I just think the NFL defenses have caught up. And if you don’t have a good coordinator (or truly elite QB), you are toast. I would bet that many QBs in the NFL would perform well on the Hawks. Shoot, I think Drew Lock would do well, and I don’t ever want the chance to see it. 🤞 😀
This is also to say, I like where SD is priced at. I would expect JS to keep his pay steady and within reason in a couple years when the new contract talks come up.
My comp for SD contract negotiations was … Daniel Jones. Unfortunately, that won’t help now with the injury
Keep it rolling Hawks
I think that just from my eyes that Sam Darnold has been an objectively better quarterback than Daniel Jones over the courses of their careers in both college and the NFL. Darnold has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he deserves to be a starter and he's been as good over the last 4 years (in 4 different systems, albeit barely any work in SF) as what Jones has been for half of one season with the Colts. It's just not fair in my eyes to say that Jones elevated himself to Darnold's level after 8 good games. If he had not torn his Achilles, I think there's a reasonable chance he would have played himself out of a job again before the end of the year.
I would be happy to give Jones the benefit of the doubt but unfortunately his latest injury makes it impossible. If he somehow returns and has a great season in 2026, we can start to talk about whether or not Jones is on par with Darnold. I just don't see any comparison between the two QBs based on their careers. Darnold is better.
Much of these comments sound similar to me to what outsiders say or have said of SD.
“It’s only 14 good games out of 17. He’s playing with Justin Jefferson. Etc etc.”
All I know to be a fact: is that their numbers are incredibly similar.
2018-2024
Even giving SD the Vikings year
SD: 54th in EPA, 48th in success rate, 51st in CPOE
DJ: 52 in EPA, 46th in success rate, 45th in CPOE
2025 prior to DJs fractured tibia
Weeks 1-11
SD: 4th in EPA, 1 in SR, 2 in CPOE
DJ: 6th in EPA, 2 in SR, 8 in CPOE
We can look at the similar games they’ve played (rams, cards, titans) and we will probably see a slight edge to DJ.
But my point isn’t who is better DJ or Sam. My belief and opinion is that the QB position is extremely important but overrated.That many QBs would have found success on the Hawks or the colts this year.
We see another example of this with Mac Jones in SF.
They can’t be max Brosmer or Anthony Richardson. But guys like SD and DJ that people once or still do consider busts but have talent can shine on a good team with a good OC.
I think it’ll happen again next year too … and I will be looking for my next SD, DJ to back.
The problem is simple...an infatuation with the new shinning object. IE the dual threat QB. The good high school RB with a good arm I has replaced the good athlete with a great arm!
The great QB whisperer Bill Walsh said, accurately, that the five skills he wanted in a QB was 1) intelligence. 2) accuracy. 3) movement in the pocket. 4) leadership and 5) Quick release. Note: nothing about arm strength or great running ability. Until the old requirements come back into vogue, the NFL will have more Murray's, Lance's. Richardson's , Strouds Hurts Milroes etc. And more and more injured QBs
Not every Duel threat QB is Lamar Jackson!
For sure, definitely makes sense to me. I think the players you mention (for the most part) didn't quite realize that they were so good in HS and college because of how much better they were than the competition and sometimes how much better their supporting casts were. That's not going to help you in the NFL where everybody is an NFL player.
What do you think about Fernando Mendoza winning the Heisman and being a first round draft pick?
Assuming these unicorns still exist...
“I shit you not” Perhaps one of the greatest idioms in the entire English language!
Is it the QB prospects at fault or college coaching and systems that do not prepare players for future employment? The draft pods I follow tend to argue the latter, fwiw.
Grant based on limited reading and I’ve been saying some of this now for a couple years, combo of a couple things. SJ and his list of who not to take examples. Players immaturity. And we see this in society a lot now. But also the change of college ball where so many don’t stick around to learn. Nil jumping for example. The stories I’ve been reading about how these giant OLine kids and their “failure” at the NFL level. College is what I call “Madden Football”. Non traditional play calling “stunts” OLine. Add that jumping around (see Kifflin or Wazzu coaching carousel) and perfecting one’s skills has decreased. An “apprentice” spends years honing his skills. Now players and some coaches jump and those the “honing” has decreased and instead seeing guys with incredible physical skills but lack real world skills. I’ll bring minuscule Flutie in. Or are past guys like Zorn and Kreig.
The draft analysts I listen to seem to think college QBs learning in two different systems is actually a plus, so long as they're on the field. That seems to be a big part of the problem: QBs, like Anthony Richardson, who just haven't played enough ball. Given the coaching carousel in the pros, it might be good training. I dunno. But it seems important to mention OLine as the other area whatever this problem is crops up. Not at WR, and not that I can tell on the defensive side of the ball. Which, if it were just NIL mobility and all that...it should impact both sides of the ball, right? Strongest candidate is the offensive schemes college coaches use, which maximize...I don't know. I mean, I really don't know. Maybe it's the hashmarks, but it seems like college runs simple offense that doesn't require much processing, and depends on simply having better athletes in key positions. Even that doesn't explain deficient line development...
I’m not disagreeing about QBs. College should be about education. When talent is disbursed as it is in college, those great athletes, WRs for example, can get away and show greatness against lesser skilled players. QBs look great when they have that incredible athlete, like Hunter. One reason AR looked so good. But was brief. Cam Ward incredible stats at Wazzu due to those receivers. But then when talent starts equalizing at the Pro level, guys get exposed. One reason we see teams like Rams or Hawks or Ravens tending to “restock” with names not always known. Gardner top 4 pick, and good. Much cheaper and really good Bryant falling and Hawks being him on board. I’ll take our DB room and upcoming draft picks over the Colts DB room. But totally agree with comment about QBs, if the QB actually learns.
I had no intention to discriminate on who's at fault although in hindsight the article puts the blame on the players. I think it's more of an environmental issue. NIL, transfer portal, social media, coaches, etc. etc. etc. Lots of variables at play for sure.
It's something environmental. However; NIL, the portal, media, and so on, also all apply to baseball, basketball, hockey and other college sports. Yet in those sports, there is not an overall 'drop' in talent. There's something unique to football at play, and that's for better paid people to figure out.
College is a different game. Just the hash marks change the game, and so many programs are pure shotgun air raid. At the highest level, it isn’t even “college” football. They get paid, and jump from school to school. Do we really think they (or 90% of them) are getting an education anymore? In my day, you would not be able to play if you fell below a 2.5 GPA. If that rule still exists, I bet they are majoring in basket weaving. The NFL should start a minor league like baseball. Same football rules as the NFL. You draft people out of high school and play in the western league or eastern league. Each pro team has its own minor league team. After 3 or 4years they either sign with the pro team or go to a draft of all 32 teams.
Shoulda happened decades ago. Maybe the NFL could just merge either the power conferences? (That’s snark.)
I just think expectations are unrealistic for most QBs.
The draft is built off Hope. The franchises and fanbases are fed endless ideas of QBs being saviors.
When in reality these are bad organizations, coaches and players. So the QBs unsurprisingly don’t succeed.
Also, QBs could use time.
I like the hawks strategy to look for experienced QBs.
When we need a QB again… I would start with the “bust” list.
There aren’t many—if any—college coaches or systems interested in preparing players for futures in the NFL or anywhere else.
It could also possibly be NFL clubs not having the patience/development programs installed that are failing young QB's. I look at clubs like the Packers who developed a line from Farve, Rogers and Love and see 2 of the players are HOFers with 1 player making the NFC Championship in his young career. Then I look at the Jets and wonder how they could miss on so many 1st round selections.
It's probably a combination of a few different variables leading to this problem.
Hope Rivers needs a week to get acclimated and only plays vs SF. Still think we get the W if he starts this week, but Rivers always had that fire in him. He's a winner.
If we have anything to worry about, I would be seriously surprised. He has more chance of being carried out on a stretcher than he does of winning this game.
Yeah, hope for his 'n his family's sake that he isn't seriously injured.
I cannot say you sold me, but I will keep an open mind.
On which part? The NFL having a QB problem?
That Qb's are worse today than ever before. It could be true, but I suspect good QB's have always been hard to find.
It seems to me that more QBs are drafted higher, which overvalues them. We expect higher picks to be better but no, the NFL is just full of unqualified players. Perhaps GMs should be on the hot seat?
That clunk sounded we all just heard is SSJ dropping the mic after just slapping a truth bomb on the NFL.
I see nothing in this column to disagree with in the slightest.
This should be mandatory reading for GMs and the league office.
Including the comments.
Clarification on Joe Flacco: He could have been a better option on the market this year compared to other options on the market. Not necessarily a good option in general. I don't think Joe Flacco is an above-average QB, but it's kind of scary to think that's he's maybe average now based on how far the league has fallen.
Has anything like this Rivers situation happened previously in the NFL?
Yes, almost exactly.
The Falcons signed Steve DeBerg in 1998, when he was 44 years old, five years after his last game. He actually started a game and had a grand total of 369 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT over eight appearances. That Falcons team was exceptional though.
"Don't worry, Phil. We'll protect you."
"Cool! Wait! Is that Leonard Williams I hear laughing?"
It sounds like the start of a ‘Bad News Bears’ kinda situation - a ‘rising from the ashes’ type of vibe. Good luck to Rivers, though. He’s a brave man entering back into the frying pan.
I'm looking forward to the Hallmark movie they make about the comeback a few years from now.
Either brave or lacking sense - or in need of money.
10 kids…
That’s over $1 million easy to send them all to college