So refreshing to see the line of scrimmage move the OTHER WAY and our guys finishing blocks during (preseason) games. Last year felt like our line gets stoned or pushed into the backfield and that was that.
Huh. So, if I have this right, ya put a steaming pile of stats in a blender and get a QB smoothie...who then moves on to has been heaven? Sooo many variables detemine "succes" for a QB and I like "wins" as the top metric. The folks around the QB will have a sh*tload to do with "win's" I think...sorta.
I can understand all of the emphasis on the quantity of passing touchdowns. I also wonder if there is a workable statistic for the quality of touchdowns. So for example, a team that is run oriented might score 3 rushing touchdowns, but still be behind 24 to 21. In the last two minutes the quarterback completes a pass that puts the team ahead with a minute to go and they end up winning the game. Isn't that touchdown (a "comeback" or '"game winner", or even a "momentum changer") worth tabulating on a different scale than TD passes that widened an already solid lead? Please recall that I am a self-admitted know-nothing.
(I also think that SD is going to be primarily a 'game manager' in the first half of the season, allowing him to get fully comfortable with his receivers)
I've wondered about tipped passes that go into the interception column on a QB. No fault on his part. Since the stat damages their competency rating, it seems they should get an asterisk.
Great article as always. Well researched and laid out. I don’t expect Donald to have a Mahomes like season. 20-25 touchdowns with single digit interceptions would be a perfect, nice complementary passing games to short and middle of the field with a couple of deeps here and there with a good ground attack should do just fine.
My bet is Ken loves this new A.I., as no more does he need to comb through massive data dumps for hours when he can just ask. Making sense of it all is one of his Super Powers.
If his completion rate is 68%, his passing yards per game is 230 and his INTs are in single digits, I would consider it a win. I feel this offense is going to run, run and dink and dunk all the way down the field. Plus he shouldn't need to get 30 TDs if the run game produces 30 TDs. Hell, he could have 20 TDs and that would be enough to score 21 points a game, not counting FG.
If the defense is what we think it will be, keeping teams under 20 points a game, we should be just fine with Darnold "regressing" as planned.
Exactly what I was going to posit. 20 TD's through the air and 30 TD's on the ground (especially if it means we'll run the ball on 2nd and goal from the 1, with 20 secs left in the 4th quarter) would be an awesome offense because it means we're pounding the rock and dominating the defenses we face.
It's all about context but I expect overall numbers to regress to the mean. But if Darnold is in a position to throw up a meaningless pass right before halftime and it's intercepted, so what? It's meaningful interceptions I care about....ie red zone picks and picks at the worst possible times. If Sam avoids poorly timed picks, I think we're going to be alright.
Although love to see some multiple defensive scores. That Big Cat return was a thing of lumbering beauty :-)). I’ll go with some Riq, Nick, Knight, Spoon and Love TD returns. And a give me a Hoo Horton dancing return mixed in.
So what about the other direction? Is there any pattern to when QB’s improve from one season to the next? Could we look at stats and see who might be in the best position to be a breakout this season? (A lot of questions, sorry).
Yes! Regression happens to everyone, and it is always towards the mean. That means everyone tends to perform closer to average over time, regardless if it's negative (downard toward the mean) regression or positive (upward toward the mean) regression. It is a "regression" because an outlier result away from the mean regresses to a closer distance toward the mean over time, as a rule of thumb.
However, just because he had an outlying result, does NOT guarantee his results will regress towards the mean this year, just that over time results tend to get closer. He could very easily have a better season or another great season, the more good seasons one has eapecially consecutively, the greater the chance of regression back towards the mean will happen next or soon. That's why people say "he's due for regression", but that phrase has been overused and misused because it makes folks sound trendy and smart with statistics.
Do you really mean rate or just single digits of total interceptions? 9% interception rate is really bad. Like 30 passes a game = 46 interceptions for the season...
Interesting article. Don't forget Darnold had Jefferson to throw to, probably the best reciever in the game! Hopefully our top 3 WRs will approach Jefferson's numbers in the aggregate,.A play action passing scheme with a good running game should help.
Since Sherf retired. I hope one of our in house RG guys can play up to league average.
Yes Jefferson is top right now, with Chase 1b with him, and Addison is high quality, however, Hawks at this point have the totality of players vs single super stud. Kupp JSN Horton Arroyo, then Walker and Charbo are collectively better than what Vikes had. Hock is elite TE, but still hasn’t fully recovered from that horrible injury and Jones in no way equal to our backs out of the backfield.
Darnold has been having The Guys over to his place (in LA?) ever since he signed on last spring. That is what leaders do when up against newness: begin minimizing problems. Familiarize. I'm wondering how many more rushing TDs we will see as with our new Run Game? Will we overwhelm our opponents or decide to let up when victory looks assured? Even then, our backup players looked like they could field a decent Team on their own...
A running team as Kubiak and McDonald want 1st and foremost does not bode well for 35 TDs 25 would be fine.
Solid analysis, Joe - thanks,
and *GO*
you fighting, scrappy, scavenging birds known for vision!
So refreshing to see the line of scrimmage move the OTHER WAY and our guys finishing blocks during (preseason) games. Last year felt like our line gets stoned or pushed into the backfield and that was that.
You think MM will ever drop Harbaugh’s kid? Not sure I’m that optimistic about our Special Teams.
Huh. So, if I have this right, ya put a steaming pile of stats in a blender and get a QB smoothie...who then moves on to has been heaven? Sooo many variables detemine "succes" for a QB and I like "wins" as the top metric. The folks around the QB will have a sh*tload to do with "win's" I think...sorta.
I love it when you bring us face-to-face with: "So about that thing you always assumed? Yeah... here's some data-backed reality to the contrary."
Excellent article!
I can understand all of the emphasis on the quantity of passing touchdowns. I also wonder if there is a workable statistic for the quality of touchdowns. So for example, a team that is run oriented might score 3 rushing touchdowns, but still be behind 24 to 21. In the last two minutes the quarterback completes a pass that puts the team ahead with a minute to go and they end up winning the game. Isn't that touchdown (a "comeback" or '"game winner", or even a "momentum changer") worth tabulating on a different scale than TD passes that widened an already solid lead? Please recall that I am a self-admitted know-nothing.
(I also think that SD is going to be primarily a 'game manager' in the first half of the season, allowing him to get fully comfortable with his receivers)
Excellent point.
I've wondered about tipped passes that go into the interception column on a QB. No fault on his part. Since the stat damages their competency rating, it seems they should get an asterisk.
Great article as always. Well researched and laid out. I don’t expect Donald to have a Mahomes like season. 20-25 touchdowns with single digit interceptions would be a perfect, nice complementary passing games to short and middle of the field with a couple of deeps here and there with a good ground attack should do just fine.
My bet is Ken loves this new A.I., as no more does he need to comb through massive data dumps for hours when he can just ask. Making sense of it all is one of his Super Powers.
If his completion rate is 68%, his passing yards per game is 230 and his INTs are in single digits, I would consider it a win. I feel this offense is going to run, run and dink and dunk all the way down the field. Plus he shouldn't need to get 30 TDs if the run game produces 30 TDs. Hell, he could have 20 TDs and that would be enough to score 21 points a game, not counting FG.
If the defense is what we think it will be, keeping teams under 20 points a game, we should be just fine with Darnold "regressing" as planned.
Exactly what I was going to posit. 20 TD's through the air and 30 TD's on the ground (especially if it means we'll run the ball on 2nd and goal from the 1, with 20 secs left in the 4th quarter) would be an awesome offense because it means we're pounding the rock and dominating the defenses we face.
It's all about context but I expect overall numbers to regress to the mean. But if Darnold is in a position to throw up a meaningless pass right before halftime and it's intercepted, so what? It's meaningful interceptions I care about....ie red zone picks and picks at the worst possible times. If Sam avoids poorly timed picks, I think we're going to be alright.
We scored 43 TDs last year. Improve significantly on that and we won’t care how it’s done.
The Hawks win 13 games and nobody's going to care how they scored their points.
💯
Although love to see some multiple defensive scores. That Big Cat return was a thing of lumbering beauty :-)). I’ll go with some Riq, Nick, Knight, Spoon and Love TD returns. And a give me a Hoo Horton dancing return mixed in.
So what about the other direction? Is there any pattern to when QB’s improve from one season to the next? Could we look at stats and see who might be in the best position to be a breakout this season? (A lot of questions, sorry).
Yes! Regression happens to everyone, and it is always towards the mean. That means everyone tends to perform closer to average over time, regardless if it's negative (downard toward the mean) regression or positive (upward toward the mean) regression. It is a "regression" because an outlier result away from the mean regresses to a closer distance toward the mean over time, as a rule of thumb.
However, just because he had an outlying result, does NOT guarantee his results will regress towards the mean this year, just that over time results tend to get closer. He could very easily have a better season or another great season, the more good seasons one has eapecially consecutively, the greater the chance of regression back towards the mean will happen next or soon. That's why people say "he's due for regression", but that phrase has been overused and misused because it makes folks sound trendy and smart with statistics.
This guy’s 2017-2020 run was impressive:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm
Never heard of him 😂
LOL!
I would take25 TDs if it came with single digits interception rate. To me that wouldn’t be regression.
May the 12s be with you and Go Seahawks!
"single digits interception rate"
Do you really mean rate or just single digits of total interceptions? 9% interception rate is really bad. Like 30 passes a game = 46 interceptions for the season...
Sorry shouldn’t have put rate in there.
Below 10!
Interesting article. Don't forget Darnold had Jefferson to throw to, probably the best reciever in the game! Hopefully our top 3 WRs will approach Jefferson's numbers in the aggregate,.A play action passing scheme with a good running game should help.
Since Sherf retired. I hope one of our in house RG guys can play up to league average.
Yes Jefferson is top right now, with Chase 1b with him, and Addison is high quality, however, Hawks at this point have the totality of players vs single super stud. Kupp JSN Horton Arroyo, then Walker and Charbo are collectively better than what Vikes had. Hock is elite TE, but still hasn’t fully recovered from that horrible injury and Jones in no way equal to our backs out of the backfield.
Having skilled players around them will be a big help.
Darnold has been having The Guys over to his place (in LA?) ever since he signed on last spring. That is what leaders do when up against newness: begin minimizing problems. Familiarize. I'm wondering how many more rushing TDs we will see as with our new Run Game? Will we overwhelm our opponents or decide to let up when victory looks assured? Even then, our backup players looked like they could field a decent Team on their own...