Love reading your articles Kenneth, you're a very entertaining writer. As someone who strongly believes in the value of a run game, I think your point about stolen opinions is spot on. Semantics as to true positional value can be debated until we are all blue in the face, but the thing is, running the football matters to the Seahawks. Success in football and life is determined by many things, but one of the most important is authenticity. Simply put, a person, or in this case a coach, should have a philosophy THEY believe in, and act on it. There is no repeatable formula for success, no way to copy and duplicate the success of others. As Josh McDaniels recently pointed out, he's not Bill Belichick, but him trying to act like him during his stint as the Broncos' HC definitely hampered his success. Pete Carroll believes in having a strong run game (so do Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay for what its worth), and he should do everything he can to execute that philosophy. There is no single way to win, and that is what the opinion thieves are missing.
I love all the hype about running backs not being worth a first round pick. It just means you can get the best guy for a 2nd instead of a first if you were going after running backs that year. This way we get Cross, Mafe and Walker instead of getting Cross and Mafe and a lesser RB at 41.
Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 8, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
RUNNING BACKS DON'T MATTTER... unless they do. It's common knowledge that most NFL games are decided in the last five to ten minutes. However, I've yet to see any of the analytic types execute a study of the impact on a defense and it's psycholgical resilience after having been successfully run against for three and a half quarters. Handoffs get intercepted significantly less than passes, running uses more clock, and the OL gets to beat on the defense. Who cares if a running play is less efficient in terms of gaining yards if it furthers the overall goal of winning? If a running back can also provide explosive plays... winner winner chicken dinner!
Pete has a formula that transends eras in football. It's called "give yourself a chance to win on the last possession". That formula depends on a successful running game which in turn depends on a special running back. Think Reggie Bush or Marshawn Lynch. Before his ego blew up Russell understood that approach and was one of the best on game winning drives but Russell never gave credit to Pete's philosophy that put him in a position to win all of those games. I think Russell was jealous of Marshawn Lynch. You know, a running back that mattered.
Joe you and I have been on the same page and talked a lot about what a hard position to play, the runningback. I have no doubt that all the haters or fence climbers will be telling everybody how much they loved KWlll when he has a good first year. What really churns by stomach is they will never admit that Walker lll would not have been available in round 3 or lower. Anyone who holds runningbacks in such disregard have never played contact sports. Also how lazy they were in not knowing that Chris Carson had a neck injury. Their excuse will be, how was I supposed to know that this would force Carson to retire. All neck injuries have one thing in common they are the most dangerous injury a player could suffer and I am including spine injuries as they are an extension of the neck. Even worse are those who get (paid) to cover the sport and a great deal of them didn't even know Carson was injured. Let me also point out Johnathan Taylor was a second round pick, and I don't know anyone who wouldn't feel elated that their team had picked him in the second round.
I played rugby for 23 years, and played at a very high level, the hardest players to tackle are the 5ft 10 inch 210 to 220lbs or more, speedster. In the open field it is very difficult to get into position to tackle them low, if you go high your probably going to take a straight arm right in the mush.
If you have been a Hawks fan for a long time, you will know any success we have had always includes a good O line, and a very good first team runningback. Curt Warner a 1st round pick got it started, and set a very high standard for those who followed
Lastly a great defense is almost always coupled with an elite running game. The legion of Boom, and the Super Bowl winning Ravens of 2000. They are the 2 best defenses in the last 30 years. Both teams had runningbacks who both were 5ft/10 inches to six feet and both were power houses. Our favorite Beast Mode, Marshawn Lynch, and the Ravens, Jamal Lewis who one season rushed for over 2000 yards. As a side note both didn't like talking to the press.
Great article yet again Mr. Arthur. You're fast-becoming a meeting-interruptor (meaning, Seaside Joe flashes on my notifications and I suddenly am reading rather than listening to what I should be listening to). Meaning, I can't wait to read what you're putting down!
Evan Hill. The guy who has recently said on more than one occasion that he is afraid that if the Seahawks struggle in the start of the season, Pete Carroll will panic and trade away the Seahawks draft capital for a QB during the season. Yeah, he actually said this out loud, more than once.
In my Panglossian world, here is what happens over the first two games.
Geno starts Monday night, and the first three drives are miserable. Fans boo. Seahawks get behind going into halftime. Second half, guess who starts? Lock! And gets his first game-winning drive as the Seahawks score with no time left to win the game.
Then, Lock starts vs the Niners and leads the Seahawks to a wire-to-wire win for a 2-0 start.
The Seahawks go on to a 10-7 season and make it into the playoffs, while Denver finishes last in its division and out.
Like I said, Panglossian. It is a great world and I invite you to take a tour.
So much to respond to. Most of my responses, though, are the same answer regardless the issue, and my answer is also MY Prognostication that Geno Smith will EXCEED expectations. Thus to your suggestion that Geno will be benched in favor of Drew Lock is: No, Geno will play until hurt or the end of the season, whichever comes first.
Also, because Geno beats expectations by a LOT, so will the Seahawks. Like the minimum we will win will be 7 games, and our ceiling will be 12. And the only way we might only win 7 games would be bad luck, which I include excessive injuries, and fumbles lost at unlucky times or such.
People reading this might think I have had a long time love for Geno and his talents, and a history of consistently predicting an upside to Geno Smith, but that would all be wrong. I cannot remember saying a single kind thing about Geno until yesterday.
My vision has only recently cleared about Geno and the Hawks. Which sounds like a good name for a band back in the fifties or early sixties. Which makes me remember a great name for a current rock band I thought of yesterday, and am curious as to comments on. (drum roll) ....so without further ado, here is my idea for a rock bands name ... ALMOST HUMAN. What do you think?
My vision is, to some extent, reason based. That means football based. So here it goes. In spite of looking like crap most of the time he played last year, Geno had approximately the same results that Russell Wilson did for all of last year. I saw this in a recent article on FG's or here. Then I read an article by or about Huard's take that the one thing Geno does better than Russell Wilson is the RPO. Now, that is one large part of the Play Action category which is Russell Wilson's forte, and something he is given credit for as one area of elite play. But the RPO part of the play action category includes some slants, screens, and some intermediate passes as well. I would add another area where Geno is an improvement over RW. In fact, I can think of numerous areas where I think Geno is better than RW. Let me count the ways:
1) RPO. Supportiing evidence: Read the aforementioned article.
2) Passes over the middle. Supporting Evidence: For me, this is like "We take these truths to be self evident" It seems "self evident" that Russell Wilson sucks at passes over the middle. I would grant it possible that Geno throws too many INT's over the middle to justify Wilson's reluctance to throw that ball. We will see on that score as well as all of the rest.
3) Taking sacks. Supporting Evidence: Ever since being aware that Dan Marino routinely had the fewest sacks in the league throughout his career, and knowing he looked like a statue in the pocket more than anyone I can remember, and Marino being so slow he might lose a race with a slug, yet had very few sacks, I have learned that QB's are more responsible for sacks then bad OL's. And while during the first 5 years of RW's career, his sacks versus his magic ratio was low, I believe that last few years RW's sack to magic ratio has risen steadily till he is now a liability more often than not when he tries to improvise behind the line of scrimmage.
4) I won't belabor the point, but would accept any well thought out ideas from the peanut gallery. I am not trying to say that Geno Smith is a better QB overall to RW, but I believe the difference between them is less than perceived by the public at large. Which isn't hard to do, since the public at large are on average pretty stupid.
I really enjoy your articles too Kenneth. To me a good writer is one that keeps your attention and you do that very well. Like Starhawk said, you "entertain", so great job! Also, "entertaining" is the metric by which I judge our beloved Seahawks. I leave all the ins and outs, X's & O's, to all the folks who's football acumen is way above my pay-grade. What I am most interested in, besides seeing the Seahawks just win games, is how many months they can divert my attention from the mundane, during the months I cannot golf where I live. In this department, Pete Carroll and company do not disappoint. In fact, they have excelled. In just 2013 and 14 alone the Hawks took us all the way into the middle of February! Consider all the other years of post seasons in the Carroll era and that adds up to a lot of football bliss. "Seahawk" football bliss and for that dear Seattle Seahawk organization, I am grateful. So now, moving forward to keep this "entertain me" scenario going strong, Seattle simply as you have alluded to (I think), had to trade Russell Wilson, as much as most of us love him, in order to bring in the wealth of up and comers from this year and next that are about to flood our locker room with talent and excitement. Of course everything seems to be pointing to 2023 as the year of fruition, but what it means this season for this entertainment addicted follower, is that every game in 2022 is going to have a playoff feel to it because all the national prognosticators are picking them to have such few wins. We know though Seattle has a lot of hungry and very, very fast talent. We do know that, don't we? This playoff atmosphere is no more true than this first game against Denver on Monday night. OMG! ... That makes even a 9 win season pretty entertaining! And if they do not reach that lofty position in the win column this year, what the heck, I will watch them anyway and look forward to your analysis. Thank you so much Kenneth ...
Haha, you may remember my idea ? Backs should get a higher minimum as their careers are shorter, and they are more likely to suffer from injuries that present themselves later in life.
Love reading your articles Kenneth, you're a very entertaining writer. As someone who strongly believes in the value of a run game, I think your point about stolen opinions is spot on. Semantics as to true positional value can be debated until we are all blue in the face, but the thing is, running the football matters to the Seahawks. Success in football and life is determined by many things, but one of the most important is authenticity. Simply put, a person, or in this case a coach, should have a philosophy THEY believe in, and act on it. There is no repeatable formula for success, no way to copy and duplicate the success of others. As Josh McDaniels recently pointed out, he's not Bill Belichick, but him trying to act like him during his stint as the Broncos' HC definitely hampered his success. Pete Carroll believes in having a strong run game (so do Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay for what its worth), and he should do everything he can to execute that philosophy. There is no single way to win, and that is what the opinion thieves are missing.
I love all the hype about running backs not being worth a first round pick. It just means you can get the best guy for a 2nd instead of a first if you were going after running backs that year. This way we get Cross, Mafe and Walker instead of getting Cross and Mafe and a lesser RB at 41.
RUNNING BACKS DON'T MATTTER... unless they do. It's common knowledge that most NFL games are decided in the last five to ten minutes. However, I've yet to see any of the analytic types execute a study of the impact on a defense and it's psycholgical resilience after having been successfully run against for three and a half quarters. Handoffs get intercepted significantly less than passes, running uses more clock, and the OL gets to beat on the defense. Who cares if a running play is less efficient in terms of gaining yards if it furthers the overall goal of winning? If a running back can also provide explosive plays... winner winner chicken dinner!
Pete has a formula that transends eras in football. It's called "give yourself a chance to win on the last possession". That formula depends on a successful running game which in turn depends on a special running back. Think Reggie Bush or Marshawn Lynch. Before his ego blew up Russell understood that approach and was one of the best on game winning drives but Russell never gave credit to Pete's philosophy that put him in a position to win all of those games. I think Russell was jealous of Marshawn Lynch. You know, a running back that mattered.
Joe you and I have been on the same page and talked a lot about what a hard position to play, the runningback. I have no doubt that all the haters or fence climbers will be telling everybody how much they loved KWlll when he has a good first year. What really churns by stomach is they will never admit that Walker lll would not have been available in round 3 or lower. Anyone who holds runningbacks in such disregard have never played contact sports. Also how lazy they were in not knowing that Chris Carson had a neck injury. Their excuse will be, how was I supposed to know that this would force Carson to retire. All neck injuries have one thing in common they are the most dangerous injury a player could suffer and I am including spine injuries as they are an extension of the neck. Even worse are those who get (paid) to cover the sport and a great deal of them didn't even know Carson was injured. Let me also point out Johnathan Taylor was a second round pick, and I don't know anyone who wouldn't feel elated that their team had picked him in the second round.
I played rugby for 23 years, and played at a very high level, the hardest players to tackle are the 5ft 10 inch 210 to 220lbs or more, speedster. In the open field it is very difficult to get into position to tackle them low, if you go high your probably going to take a straight arm right in the mush.
If you have been a Hawks fan for a long time, you will know any success we have had always includes a good O line, and a very good first team runningback. Curt Warner a 1st round pick got it started, and set a very high standard for those who followed
Lastly a great defense is almost always coupled with an elite running game. The legion of Boom, and the Super Bowl winning Ravens of 2000. They are the 2 best defenses in the last 30 years. Both teams had runningbacks who both were 5ft/10 inches to six feet and both were power houses. Our favorite Beast Mode, Marshawn Lynch, and the Ravens, Jamal Lewis who one season rushed for over 2000 yards. As a side note both didn't like talking to the press.
Enjoy tonight's season opener, Rams, Bill's.
Great article yet again Mr. Arthur. You're fast-becoming a meeting-interruptor (meaning, Seaside Joe flashes on my notifications and I suddenly am reading rather than listening to what I should be listening to). Meaning, I can't wait to read what you're putting down!
Evan Hill. The guy who has recently said on more than one occasion that he is afraid that if the Seahawks struggle in the start of the season, Pete Carroll will panic and trade away the Seahawks draft capital for a QB during the season. Yeah, he actually said this out loud, more than once.
In my Panglossian world, here is what happens over the first two games.
Geno starts Monday night, and the first three drives are miserable. Fans boo. Seahawks get behind going into halftime. Second half, guess who starts? Lock! And gets his first game-winning drive as the Seahawks score with no time left to win the game.
Then, Lock starts vs the Niners and leads the Seahawks to a wire-to-wire win for a 2-0 start.
The Seahawks go on to a 10-7 season and make it into the playoffs, while Denver finishes last in its division and out.
Like I said, Panglossian. It is a great world and I invite you to take a tour.
So much to respond to. Most of my responses, though, are the same answer regardless the issue, and my answer is also MY Prognostication that Geno Smith will EXCEED expectations. Thus to your suggestion that Geno will be benched in favor of Drew Lock is: No, Geno will play until hurt or the end of the season, whichever comes first.
Also, because Geno beats expectations by a LOT, so will the Seahawks. Like the minimum we will win will be 7 games, and our ceiling will be 12. And the only way we might only win 7 games would be bad luck, which I include excessive injuries, and fumbles lost at unlucky times or such.
People reading this might think I have had a long time love for Geno and his talents, and a history of consistently predicting an upside to Geno Smith, but that would all be wrong. I cannot remember saying a single kind thing about Geno until yesterday.
My vision has only recently cleared about Geno and the Hawks. Which sounds like a good name for a band back in the fifties or early sixties. Which makes me remember a great name for a current rock band I thought of yesterday, and am curious as to comments on. (drum roll) ....so without further ado, here is my idea for a rock bands name ... ALMOST HUMAN. What do you think?
My vision is, to some extent, reason based. That means football based. So here it goes. In spite of looking like crap most of the time he played last year, Geno had approximately the same results that Russell Wilson did for all of last year. I saw this in a recent article on FG's or here. Then I read an article by or about Huard's take that the one thing Geno does better than Russell Wilson is the RPO. Now, that is one large part of the Play Action category which is Russell Wilson's forte, and something he is given credit for as one area of elite play. But the RPO part of the play action category includes some slants, screens, and some intermediate passes as well. I would add another area where Geno is an improvement over RW. In fact, I can think of numerous areas where I think Geno is better than RW. Let me count the ways:
1) RPO. Supportiing evidence: Read the aforementioned article.
2) Passes over the middle. Supporting Evidence: For me, this is like "We take these truths to be self evident" It seems "self evident" that Russell Wilson sucks at passes over the middle. I would grant it possible that Geno throws too many INT's over the middle to justify Wilson's reluctance to throw that ball. We will see on that score as well as all of the rest.
3) Taking sacks. Supporting Evidence: Ever since being aware that Dan Marino routinely had the fewest sacks in the league throughout his career, and knowing he looked like a statue in the pocket more than anyone I can remember, and Marino being so slow he might lose a race with a slug, yet had very few sacks, I have learned that QB's are more responsible for sacks then bad OL's. And while during the first 5 years of RW's career, his sacks versus his magic ratio was low, I believe that last few years RW's sack to magic ratio has risen steadily till he is now a liability more often than not when he tries to improvise behind the line of scrimmage.
4) I won't belabor the point, but would accept any well thought out ideas from the peanut gallery. I am not trying to say that Geno Smith is a better QB overall to RW, but I believe the difference between them is less than perceived by the public at large. Which isn't hard to do, since the public at large are on average pretty stupid.
Great article, Kenneth.
Great article, you are a good read. Thank u
I really enjoy your articles too Kenneth. To me a good writer is one that keeps your attention and you do that very well. Like Starhawk said, you "entertain", so great job! Also, "entertaining" is the metric by which I judge our beloved Seahawks. I leave all the ins and outs, X's & O's, to all the folks who's football acumen is way above my pay-grade. What I am most interested in, besides seeing the Seahawks just win games, is how many months they can divert my attention from the mundane, during the months I cannot golf where I live. In this department, Pete Carroll and company do not disappoint. In fact, they have excelled. In just 2013 and 14 alone the Hawks took us all the way into the middle of February! Consider all the other years of post seasons in the Carroll era and that adds up to a lot of football bliss. "Seahawk" football bliss and for that dear Seattle Seahawk organization, I am grateful. So now, moving forward to keep this "entertain me" scenario going strong, Seattle simply as you have alluded to (I think), had to trade Russell Wilson, as much as most of us love him, in order to bring in the wealth of up and comers from this year and next that are about to flood our locker room with talent and excitement. Of course everything seems to be pointing to 2023 as the year of fruition, but what it means this season for this entertainment addicted follower, is that every game in 2022 is going to have a playoff feel to it because all the national prognosticators are picking them to have such few wins. We know though Seattle has a lot of hungry and very, very fast talent. We do know that, don't we? This playoff atmosphere is no more true than this first game against Denver on Monday night. OMG! ... That makes even a 9 win season pretty entertaining! And if they do not reach that lofty position in the win column this year, what the heck, I will watch them anyway and look forward to your analysis. Thank you so much Kenneth ...
KW3 might be the single best defensive pick possible by keeping the defense off the field.
Haha, you may remember my idea ? Backs should get a higher minimum as their careers are shorter, and they are more likely to suffer from injuries that present themselves later in life.
Quite welcome and well deserved