Seahawks playoff picture and draft order update: 2 top-12 picks in 2023
How Seattle can get the number one overall pick, 12/25/22: Seaside Joe 1392
The Green Bay Packers beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, improving to 7-8 following their third straight win. If the Packers beat the Vikings and Lions in their last two games, Green Bay will finish 9-8 and have an outstanding chance of being in the NFC playoffs.
And the playoff chances of the Seattle Seahawks will go down no matter how their season ends.
But the only thing that Pete Carroll is focused on is how the Seahawks can beat the New York Jets in Week 17, then Seattle can turn its attention to the Los Angeles Rams in the season finale. If the Seahawks finish 9-8, I believe most fans will find the season acceptable even if Seattle does miss the postseason for the second year in a row.
And in spite of the fact that the Seahawks will have won just a single playoff game—a wild card win over Josh McCown’s Eagles in 2019—in the last six years.
Seattle can still say that they’ve posted a winning record during a season when expectations were as low as they’ve ever been amid the Carroll era and with multiple first and second round picks in 2023, the Seahawks could be back in contention next season. But that’s only if Seattle manages a competitive and winning effort in their last two games.
Something better than losing five of six.
If the Seahawks fail to beat the Jets or Rams, a feat that seems much more difficult after L.A.’s 51-14 thwomping of the Denver Broncos on Christmas Day, then January 8th will not come without questions of whether or not Pete Carroll is still going to be the head coach on January 9th.
If Carroll does retain his position with the Seahawks, then he will be orchestrating a 2023 draft class with much more capital than almost any other in franchise history: Two picks in the top-15 and potentially four in the top-40.
But first, the playoffs.
Because the Giants, Commanders, and Lions all lost their Week 16 games, Seattle’s wild card chances have not changed all that much. Because the Packers intercepted Tua Tagovailoa three times in the fourth quarter on Sunday, Green Bay controls their own destiny if the Giants beat the Colts next week.
The Packers could then beat the Vikings and Lions to finish 9-8 and guarantee themselves an NFC wild card spot, which would complete a rebound from 4-8 by winning each of their last five contests.
If New York does beat Indianapolis next week, not a stretch of the imagination, then the Giants will be 9-6-1 and are guaranteed to have a better record than Seattle.
The Commanders are 7-7-1 with games remaining against the Browns and Cowboys.
The Lions are 7-8 with games against the Bears and Packers, but a head-to-head loss to the Seahawks.
All told, the playoff picture is easy to figure out: The Seahawks should only worry about what happens if they finish 9-8. If that’s not good enough to make the playoffs, well, that’s what happens when you lose games to the Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Raiders, and Panthers.
And we can officially turn our entire attention to the 2023 NFL Draft. There are still slim odds that the Seattle Seahawks will end up with the number one overall pick.
The Houston Texans came so close to winning their games in Week 14 and Week 15, but then completed their efforts with a 19-14 victory over the Titans on Saturday. The Texans improved to 2-12-1, just a hair better than Denver’s 4-11 record. Had the Texans beaten the Cowboys and Chiefs, the Broncos’ pick would already be higher than Houston’s.
Even though I’ve heard so many times this year, “Well, there’s just no way I can picture the Broncos losing (that game) or (that game),” trust me…the Broncos continue to lose THAT GAME. They suck.
The Broncos will be heavy underdogs in their final two games and should finish 4-13.
The Chicago Bears are 3-12 and while I will do everything in my power to avoid asking the question, “Why is literally no one questioning if Justin Fields can actually start for a team next season?” I’m going to do it anyway: Why is literally no one questioning if Fields is capable of completing NFL passes when the supporting cast improves? If it even does improve.
The Bears have lost eight straight games and face the Lions and Vikings to close the season. If you believe that the Broncos will lose their last two games, it is hard to argue against the idea that the Bears will lose their last two games. The Lions looked terrible in Week 16, I give you that, but the Bears are a joke.
Chicago’s best chance of a win is the probability that the Vikings will sit their starters in Week 18, but that’s only if the Eagles clinch the number one overall seed by then. The 13-2 Eagles play the Saints and the 12-3 Vikings play the Packers in Week 17. It could happen.
If Minnesota sits their starters in Week 18, the Bears could finish 4-13. Because Denver’s strength of schedule is so much worse than Chicago’s, the Broncos will have the higher pick if they finish with the same record.
Because of that, my prediction of how the draft order will finish is simple: 1. Texans, 2. Seahawks (via DEN), 3. Bears
For now, Seattle’s pick is third and their original pick is 12th. The Seahawks are 7-8 against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, so they almost always win the tiebreaker against teams with the same record.
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Seahawks 2023 NFL Draft order
First round
3rd overall (via Broncos)
12th overall
Second round
34th overall (via Broncos)
49th overall
Third round
80th overall
Why is the Seahawks second round pick so much lower?
NFL draft order tiebreakers are determined by strength of schedule. Right now, Seattle is in a seven-way tie at 7-8 and they have the highest priority. When it comes to the next round, the team that had the highest priority is moved to the bottom and has the lowest priority. That means that the Seahawks second round pick is the lowest of those seven teams (18th overall in the round) and it drops to 49th overall.
There are only 31 first round picks in 2023 because the Dolphins were penalized.
I watched the Seahawks game and just came away feeling...'UGH!' Then I watched the Broncos first half...well, Geno isn't all that bad after all! Lol
Merry Christmas Ken.
And Merry Christmas Seahawks fans, the Denver picks keep looking better and better. The Seahawks were once again "Winners" in the Winners and Losers article at MHR lol.