It is very very difficult to answer these questions until we are on the clock, right? If we absolutely love somebody still on the board, we'll pick 'im. If we don't, we'll listen to offers. In other words, it is hard to speak hypothetically on trading our pick until we know what we could have at that pick. The only exception MIGHT be a whopper of an offer good enough for us to decide that our love of Player X at 5, no matter who it is, is trumped by the prospect of 2-3 future first round picks.
Amen. I view Richardson as Duane Haskins 2.0 and Levi's as Carson Wentz 2.0. The best for them would be late 2nd or early 3rd round picks. But you never know...if some team falls in love with them. I just hope it's not us!
All these scenarios change if the Seahawks do not re-sign Geno. He will ink somewhere prior to the draft, so John and Pete will know what's up before then. I think Geno will sign will Seattle for $30/35M/yr. If he can get more than that elsewhere, adios... If Geno is gone, that #5 pick must be a QB, maybe even requiring a trade up if it gets crazy.
Here's an idea, let's sign FAs B. Wags at LB. and Brandon Cooks 3rd receiver and we have taken care of 2 of our needs. B. Wags is still a great LB and all Cooks does is get open and kill the Hawks.
I voted yes in the poll, but it would all really depend on who's there. They don't make these trades until pick time, do they? I always assumed it was either spoken about beforehand (and then they wait to see) or just hammered out in the 5 minute period or as soon as the coveted prospect you wouldn't trade if he's available is gone. Seems I watched a draft behind the scenes involving a trade and it led me to believe that. Or maybe they were trying to make more compelling television. Or the possibility exists that I remember it totally wrong.
But if Anderson or Young were inexplicably there at 5, I would vote no. And maybe Carter. I know Carter is #1 on many boards, but his highlights aren't even exciting outside of picking up the LSU QB. But for the point of this exercise I'll defer to people who know much more about scouting than I do and say that if one of these 3 (or someone I didn't realize was top 5 level good at a position of need) is on the board, we don't trade down. Top 5 picks are a rare thing in Seattle.
We need special talent at any position where we can get it. I'd sooner have an all-pro center or guard than a decent #3 wideout or "pretty good" linebacker. Obviously pick #5 shouldn't be spent on a devalued position, but from 20 on it should be considered.
How do you evaluate current year draft picks vs future year draft picks? I've heard a rule of thumb that says a current year pick in round n is about the same as next year's pick in round n-1. That means a 2023 3rd is worth a 2024 2nd and a 2023 2nd is worth a 2024 1st (for a team that doesn't expect that pick to be a super high one at least).
You definitely have to discount the value of next year's picks because there's a whole year you don't get anything out of it. You might have to discount them somewhat due to the uncertainty of how high a pick it actually ends up being. So what's your general sense of the value of future draft picks compared to current draft picks?
Excellent analysis. Last year the majority of the media, including genius Mel Kiper Jr., had Willis, Ridder, Howard , Pickett and I forgot who else all drafted in the 1st round!
This year the media is hyping Levi's and Richardson beyond all reason. Buth have minor flaws like accuracy, anticipation and pocket awareness ( sarcasm) yet they think both are top 20 picks. The only top picks I see are Young, ( probably 1st pick) and Stroud if he has a great combine.
My hope for the Hawks is that every year some QB, needy team over drafts a QB. and trades up to get him, leaving the Hawks with a huge draft haul. If Carter and Anderson are gone they trade back.
The QB class next year is better and deeper than this years.
1) Everyone should read Seaside Joe! You put out an awesome quality blog here, full of genuinely interesting and well written ideas and content. There's no Ego, no self obsession, and a comment section that carries these same ideals. I try to pass you onto my non-'Hawks friends (because none of my friends are 'Hawks fans). If any of you have 'Hawks friends and they don't read this, you have to force feed them articles until they give in and sub!
2) Bijan #5, riding this dream straight to dissapointment come draft night. (Hope we make some Defensive FA splashes in the coming weeks so this becomes more likely)
3) I would so love to sit inside some of the interview rooms in the coming days and really see how various prospects handle the up close and deeply personal spotlight all the teams will be shining. The Combine tests are fun, but it's all a bit showy for me. I'll stick the full streams on as I fall asleep and just focus on highlights for specific prospects in the weeks after. But the interviews, that's the key bit of the week and we never get to really see how it all plays out. I find it fascinating.
Feb 27, 2023·edited Feb 27, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe
Sorry this is a longer comment but it just kept coming.
The realization that the S2 scores are historically good means that the top four QBs likely did well. If Richardson, Stroud, or Levis scored a 95, I'm taking him at five if he's available. This also increases the likelyhood that Anderson or Carter falls to five and weakens the case for Byrce Young going first.
We have a tendency to treat the draft in isolation but it's just one component of the team building strategy. Would the Hawks trade a first round pick for DaRon Payne on a sign and trade deal? Maybe he's the chip instead of a 2024 pick. Schneider has touted Dareke Young as a key future piece and Pete still professes love for Eskridge; does that move WR down the draft pecking order? What do the coaches think about Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe, and Darrell Johnson?
Another big question for the draft is how the defensive philosophy will morph this season. The Seahawk defense is based on three factors. First is making every coverage look the same at snap, much like a baseball pitcher wants every pitch to look the same coming out of his hand. Second is stopping the run up the middle, forcing everything outside. Third is getting pressure on third down with solid coverage by the secondary allowing rushers to get sacks. We had big problems with the first, most important component which is why the down linemen have to be replaced. It also indicates they need size for those three guys which is why I don't expect to see someone like Kancey taken by the Hawks. Carter, Breese and Benton remain my favorites in the draft. There are several good candidates in free agency including A'Shawn Robinson and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Second, the outside linebackers have to be able to stand up against the run and keep contain. Nwosu was good at this and Darrell Taylor was terrible which is why Taylor became a situational pass rusher. Third, the inside linebachers must be able to cover the middle zone effectively. If the Hawks spend a lot of time with Adams, Diggs, and Ryan on the field at the same time then we'll have often only one inside linebacker on the field which reduces LB coverage issues.
My pet peeve is Coby Bryant. I think he's a valuable reserve who can play anywhere but I'm not sure he's physically appropriate for the fulltime nickel position. The nickel may be the most demanding position on today's defense. He needs to be quick enough to cover slot receivers but big enough to cover a TE and strong enough to play a significant role in run defense. Someone like Antonio Johnson who I think would have a big impact for the Hawks. I don't know if any of our current DBs check all the boxes.
Objectively, the defensive line is our biggest hole. Given an ideal off-season we'd secure three impact defensive linemen, a quality mike linebacker who can slide to Will, a dynamic edge rusher, and an elite nickel. That is a huge ask for one offseason.
What about the opposite direction? If Bryce Young is THAT guy, how about 5, 20, a 2024 2nd and 4th for #1 overall? Chicago doesn’t pick again until 54, so they really could use that extra early pick. That and they don’t have to go too far back in Round 1 where they don’t get the impact defender they should want.
If Bryce Young was 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, teams would be beating Chicago’s door down. Curious what he measures out at this week, because the rest of it seems to be there.
I would be able to accept the deal with Washington but I like the Houston trade most. Still not quite what I would like but being able to essentialy bounce the Denver pick for a year would be outstanding.
Bit of a different comment here. "Commanders", what a horrible name. Dan Snyder must of picked this one when he was in the Men's Room. I too, refuse to use the C word. Me, I still call them the Redskins. If I had a vote on the new name, I think I would have picked Red Tails. This is a proud and accomplished WW2 fighter group. However, I am sure there is some left wing group out there that could find a way to condemn this name. I am good with 'Moons' Kenneth.
I tend to favor Claude's comment below. My feeling is that John and Pete turned the draft corner last year and I trust that they will do what is absolutely the best for the Seahawks. If that means using their 5 pick for a player, I am good with that. If they feel they can make the Seahawks even better in years to come by trading down, they will do that.
I would not favor trading down from #5. The Seahawks are more in need of Quality than Quantity, at this point. We already have enough draft capital to stock the roster and that is not the primary need. What we need are Star players to win championships by outperforming their opponents. If all the reports are true that John favored Mahomes and Allen over all the QBs of the past decade, then this strongly hints that, if he goes QB, it will be for Richardson, who most resembles them, right down to howitzer arms but uneven college careers and accuracy concerns. If not QB, then at least one of Carter, Anderson or Wilson will be there at #5, and any would be a huge upgrade for our defense.
It is very very difficult to answer these questions until we are on the clock, right? If we absolutely love somebody still on the board, we'll pick 'im. If we don't, we'll listen to offers. In other words, it is hard to speak hypothetically on trading our pick until we know what we could have at that pick. The only exception MIGHT be a whopper of an offer good enough for us to decide that our love of Player X at 5, no matter who it is, is trumped by the prospect of 2-3 future first round picks.
Amen. I view Richardson as Duane Haskins 2.0 and Levi's as Carson Wentz 2.0. The best for them would be late 2nd or early 3rd round picks. But you never know...if some team falls in love with them. I just hope it's not us!
Best case scenario besides getting our guy is there’s a quarterback we have no interest in on the board that another team covets.
All these scenarios change if the Seahawks do not re-sign Geno. He will ink somewhere prior to the draft, so John and Pete will know what's up before then. I think Geno will sign will Seattle for $30/35M/yr. If he can get more than that elsewhere, adios... If Geno is gone, that #5 pick must be a QB, maybe even requiring a trade up if it gets crazy.
Here's an idea, let's sign FAs B. Wags at LB. and Brandon Cooks 3rd receiver and we have taken care of 2 of our needs. B. Wags is still a great LB and all Cooks does is get open and kill the Hawks.
That leaves D tackle. Rush end and Center to do.
I voted yes in the poll, but it would all really depend on who's there. They don't make these trades until pick time, do they? I always assumed it was either spoken about beforehand (and then they wait to see) or just hammered out in the 5 minute period or as soon as the coveted prospect you wouldn't trade if he's available is gone. Seems I watched a draft behind the scenes involving a trade and it led me to believe that. Or maybe they were trying to make more compelling television. Or the possibility exists that I remember it totally wrong.
But if Anderson or Young were inexplicably there at 5, I would vote no. And maybe Carter. I know Carter is #1 on many boards, but his highlights aren't even exciting outside of picking up the LSU QB. But for the point of this exercise I'll defer to people who know much more about scouting than I do and say that if one of these 3 (or someone I didn't realize was top 5 level good at a position of need) is on the board, we don't trade down. Top 5 picks are a rare thing in Seattle.
We need special talent at any position where we can get it. I'd sooner have an all-pro center or guard than a decent #3 wideout or "pretty good" linebacker. Obviously pick #5 shouldn't be spent on a devalued position, but from 20 on it should be considered.
How do you evaluate current year draft picks vs future year draft picks? I've heard a rule of thumb that says a current year pick in round n is about the same as next year's pick in round n-1. That means a 2023 3rd is worth a 2024 2nd and a 2023 2nd is worth a 2024 1st (for a team that doesn't expect that pick to be a super high one at least).
You definitely have to discount the value of next year's picks because there's a whole year you don't get anything out of it. You might have to discount them somewhat due to the uncertainty of how high a pick it actually ends up being. So what's your general sense of the value of future draft picks compared to current draft picks?
Joe, could you distill the various proposals? E.g., I think that #1 is:
CAR get #5 overall
SEA get #9 overall and CAR 2024 1st-round pick
but I'm not certain.
Any trade is good if we draft well afterward.
Excellent analysis. Last year the majority of the media, including genius Mel Kiper Jr., had Willis, Ridder, Howard , Pickett and I forgot who else all drafted in the 1st round!
This year the media is hyping Levi's and Richardson beyond all reason. Buth have minor flaws like accuracy, anticipation and pocket awareness ( sarcasm) yet they think both are top 20 picks. The only top picks I see are Young, ( probably 1st pick) and Stroud if he has a great combine.
My hope for the Hawks is that every year some QB, needy team over drafts a QB. and trades up to get him, leaving the Hawks with a huge draft haul. If Carter and Anderson are gone they trade back.
The QB class next year is better and deeper than this years.
1) Everyone should read Seaside Joe! You put out an awesome quality blog here, full of genuinely interesting and well written ideas and content. There's no Ego, no self obsession, and a comment section that carries these same ideals. I try to pass you onto my non-'Hawks friends (because none of my friends are 'Hawks fans). If any of you have 'Hawks friends and they don't read this, you have to force feed them articles until they give in and sub!
2) Bijan #5, riding this dream straight to dissapointment come draft night. (Hope we make some Defensive FA splashes in the coming weeks so this becomes more likely)
3) I would so love to sit inside some of the interview rooms in the coming days and really see how various prospects handle the up close and deeply personal spotlight all the teams will be shining. The Combine tests are fun, but it's all a bit showy for me. I'll stick the full streams on as I fall asleep and just focus on highlights for specific prospects in the weeks after. But the interviews, that's the key bit of the week and we never get to really see how it all plays out. I find it fascinating.
Sorry this is a longer comment but it just kept coming.
The realization that the S2 scores are historically good means that the top four QBs likely did well. If Richardson, Stroud, or Levis scored a 95, I'm taking him at five if he's available. This also increases the likelyhood that Anderson or Carter falls to five and weakens the case for Byrce Young going first.
We have a tendency to treat the draft in isolation but it's just one component of the team building strategy. Would the Hawks trade a first round pick for DaRon Payne on a sign and trade deal? Maybe he's the chip instead of a 2024 pick. Schneider has touted Dareke Young as a key future piece and Pete still professes love for Eskridge; does that move WR down the draft pecking order? What do the coaches think about Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe, and Darrell Johnson?
Another big question for the draft is how the defensive philosophy will morph this season. The Seahawk defense is based on three factors. First is making every coverage look the same at snap, much like a baseball pitcher wants every pitch to look the same coming out of his hand. Second is stopping the run up the middle, forcing everything outside. Third is getting pressure on third down with solid coverage by the secondary allowing rushers to get sacks. We had big problems with the first, most important component which is why the down linemen have to be replaced. It also indicates they need size for those three guys which is why I don't expect to see someone like Kancey taken by the Hawks. Carter, Breese and Benton remain my favorites in the draft. There are several good candidates in free agency including A'Shawn Robinson and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Second, the outside linebackers have to be able to stand up against the run and keep contain. Nwosu was good at this and Darrell Taylor was terrible which is why Taylor became a situational pass rusher. Third, the inside linebachers must be able to cover the middle zone effectively. If the Hawks spend a lot of time with Adams, Diggs, and Ryan on the field at the same time then we'll have often only one inside linebacker on the field which reduces LB coverage issues.
My pet peeve is Coby Bryant. I think he's a valuable reserve who can play anywhere but I'm not sure he's physically appropriate for the fulltime nickel position. The nickel may be the most demanding position on today's defense. He needs to be quick enough to cover slot receivers but big enough to cover a TE and strong enough to play a significant role in run defense. Someone like Antonio Johnson who I think would have a big impact for the Hawks. I don't know if any of our current DBs check all the boxes.
Objectively, the defensive line is our biggest hole. Given an ideal off-season we'd secure three impact defensive linemen, a quality mike linebacker who can slide to Will, a dynamic edge rusher, and an elite nickel. That is a huge ask for one offseason.
What about the opposite direction? If Bryce Young is THAT guy, how about 5, 20, a 2024 2nd and 4th for #1 overall? Chicago doesn’t pick again until 54, so they really could use that extra early pick. That and they don’t have to go too far back in Round 1 where they don’t get the impact defender they should want.
If Bryce Young was 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, teams would be beating Chicago’s door down. Curious what he measures out at this week, because the rest of it seems to be there.
I would be able to accept the deal with Washington but I like the Houston trade most. Still not quite what I would like but being able to essentialy bounce the Denver pick for a year would be outstanding.
Bit of a different comment here. "Commanders", what a horrible name. Dan Snyder must of picked this one when he was in the Men's Room. I too, refuse to use the C word. Me, I still call them the Redskins. If I had a vote on the new name, I think I would have picked Red Tails. This is a proud and accomplished WW2 fighter group. However, I am sure there is some left wing group out there that could find a way to condemn this name. I am good with 'Moons' Kenneth.
I tend to favor Claude's comment below. My feeling is that John and Pete turned the draft corner last year and I trust that they will do what is absolutely the best for the Seahawks. If that means using their 5 pick for a player, I am good with that. If they feel they can make the Seahawks even better in years to come by trading down, they will do that.
I would not favor trading down from #5. The Seahawks are more in need of Quality than Quantity, at this point. We already have enough draft capital to stock the roster and that is not the primary need. What we need are Star players to win championships by outperforming their opponents. If all the reports are true that John favored Mahomes and Allen over all the QBs of the past decade, then this strongly hints that, if he goes QB, it will be for Richardson, who most resembles them, right down to howitzer arms but uneven college careers and accuracy concerns. If not QB, then at least one of Carter, Anderson or Wilson will be there at #5, and any would be a huge upgrade for our defense.