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Hawkdawg's avatar

It is very very difficult to answer these questions until we are on the clock, right? If we absolutely love somebody still on the board, we'll pick 'im. If we don't, we'll listen to offers. In other words, it is hard to speak hypothetically on trading our pick until we know what we could have at that pick. The only exception MIGHT be a whopper of an offer good enough for us to decide that our love of Player X at 5, no matter who it is, is trumped by the prospect of 2-3 future first round picks.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Yep it’s just a thought experiment, like the millions of mock drafts that come out every day but with more value because it gives Seahawks fans some insight into the board and the current openings and draft capital around the league. Which will change.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Amen. I view Richardson as Duane Haskins 2.0 and Levi's as Carson Wentz 2.0. The best for them would be late 2nd or early 3rd round picks. But you never know...if some team falls in love with them. I just hope it's not us!

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KHammarling's avatar

Can't tell if you are trying to knock Levis or praise him - such is the nature of Wentz who was awesome through his first two years, lost 2018 to injury, bounced back to throw 4000yds 27:7 ratio with a WR room that was headed by Agholor & Whiteside (so give Wentz a half-decent pair of receivers and imagine the improvement in stats). 2020 was where it went weird with unnecessary hero play as the Eagles as a whole continued to go backwards. If Levi is Wentz 2.0, but given a proper set of WR's (like DK & NoE), and can avoid the injuries, then lets please take him at #5 and ride him to many many playoff wins.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

I think we could get to April and Levis, Richardson have fallen to day 2 conversation. I’m getting to the point where I’ll be writing about Hendon Hooker and day 2.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

What has Richardson ever done to deserve all this hype? Same.goes for.Levis.who transfered from Penn State because he couldn't beat put an average for QB 1.

One thing I always.remember from the.late great Bill Walsh, when asked why the 49ers had so many great drafts, he said. " most teams.look at what a player can't do, and we look at what a player can do. And if he fits our needs , we draft him."

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Surprisingly, the vast majority of college QBs don't have special arms. Some cannons, some accurate passers, but honeslty not that much velocity or accuracy on the important throws. I think that causes players with those top-5% arms to rise up the prospect rankings, so that's understandable to a degree, but ultimately AR was helped out by short highlight packages and social media. He has some unique plays on film. But to me, that amounts to a chance you take on day 2. Teams may fear that there are other more aggressive GMs who will take that chance away from them.

I prefer Grayson McCall because his accuracy and decision making and consistency is 1 of 2. (Bryce Young being the other for me) But I have to admit his arm strength isn't there and probably won't ever be. But I like him to command an offense because he's proven it year after year.

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Chuck Turtleman's avatar

Best case scenario besides getting our guy is there’s a quarterback we have no interest in on the board that another team covets.

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Claude Golden's avatar

All these scenarios change if the Seahawks do not re-sign Geno. He will ink somewhere prior to the draft, so John and Pete will know what's up before then. I think Geno will sign will Seattle for $30/35M/yr. If he can get more than that elsewhere, adios... If Geno is gone, that #5 pick must be a QB, maybe even requiring a trade up if it gets crazy.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

I don't think that Geno Smith signing or not re-signing actually has much impact on the decision to draft a QB, nor do I believe that would be an organizationally smart way to approach any draft. Either you love a QB prospect and you draft him if he's available, or you don't love one and you pass on him. You don't draft a QB prospect to fill a need. That's, to me, how we end up with so many busts. And that's not how the Seahawks have ever acted under Pete Carroll in 13 years anyway. This is how so many people incorrectly assumed Seattle would be drafting a QB in 2022. If Geno walks, the Seahawks will act the same. They're a team that's comfortable rolling with Drew Lock, a veteran, and a day 2 pick.

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Hawkdawg's avatar

Assuming they know they have Lock in reserve, which at this point, they don't.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Yep, it’s just talking about what the Seahawks would be comfortable with. Not what they’re guaranteed to do.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Here's an idea, let's sign FAs B. Wags at LB. and Brandon Cooks 3rd receiver and we have taken care of 2 of our needs. B. Wags is still a great LB and all Cooks does is get open and kill the Hawks.

That leaves D tackle. Rush end and Center to do.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Brandin Cooks is under contract and not going to hit free agency. He might be traded and the Seahawks won't be trading for an $18 million 30-year-old receiver.

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Hawkdawg's avatar

And Wagner is likely to be far too expensive given our cap situation, especially given that we need to be building for a SB run in the next 2-3 years, not hanging on to make the playoffs for one more year....

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Not sure what Wagner will cost. Nobody can say.

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Chuck Turtleman's avatar

I voted yes in the poll, but it would all really depend on who's there. They don't make these trades until pick time, do they? I always assumed it was either spoken about beforehand (and then they wait to see) or just hammered out in the 5 minute period or as soon as the coveted prospect you wouldn't trade if he's available is gone. Seems I watched a draft behind the scenes involving a trade and it led me to believe that. Or maybe they were trying to make more compelling television. Or the possibility exists that I remember it totally wrong.

But if Anderson or Young were inexplicably there at 5, I would vote no. And maybe Carter. I know Carter is #1 on many boards, but his highlights aren't even exciting outside of picking up the LSU QB. But for the point of this exercise I'll defer to people who know much more about scouting than I do and say that if one of these 3 (or someone I didn't realize was top 5 level good at a position of need) is on the board, we don't trade down. Top 5 picks are a rare thing in Seattle.

We need special talent at any position where we can get it. I'd sooner have an all-pro center or guard than a decent #3 wideout or "pretty good" linebacker. Obviously pick #5 shouldn't be spent on a devalued position, but from 20 on it should be considered.

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Jon's avatar

How do you evaluate current year draft picks vs future year draft picks? I've heard a rule of thumb that says a current year pick in round n is about the same as next year's pick in round n-1. That means a 2023 3rd is worth a 2024 2nd and a 2023 2nd is worth a 2024 1st (for a team that doesn't expect that pick to be a super high one at least).

You definitely have to discount the value of next year's picks because there's a whole year you don't get anything out of it. You might have to discount them somewhat due to the uncertainty of how high a pick it actually ends up being. So what's your general sense of the value of future draft picks compared to current draft picks?

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Seaside Joe's avatar

We can't put every single trade and GM and how they value draft picks under the same little umbrella. It all depends. Generally that may be a rule of thumb the same as a point chart, but it's all dependent on supply-and-demand. It's kind of hard to answer that question without a more specific scenario. Something I wrote yesterday though is that Seattle should not be trying to add more first and second round picks in 2023. They're all set there. They need more capital in 2024, if they're going to trade down.

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Paul G's avatar

Joe, could you distill the various proposals? E.g., I think that #1 is:

CAR get #5 overall

SEA get #9 overall and CAR 2024 1st-round pick

but I'm not certain.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

That's it.

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Hawkdawg's avatar

My guess is that Carolina expects to be bad next year, with or without a stud rookie QB. Would they give that pick up for that QB this year, when they are going to need plenty more draft talent to compete for the Big One?

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Seaside Joe's avatar

You could be right.

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Ron Damman's avatar

Any trade is good if we draft well afterward.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Excellent analysis. Last year the majority of the media, including genius Mel Kiper Jr., had Willis, Ridder, Howard , Pickett and I forgot who else all drafted in the 1st round!

This year the media is hyping Levi's and Richardson beyond all reason. Buth have minor flaws like accuracy, anticipation and pocket awareness ( sarcasm) yet they think both are top 20 picks. The only top picks I see are Young, ( probably 1st pick) and Stroud if he has a great combine.

My hope for the Hawks is that every year some QB, needy team over drafts a QB. and trades up to get him, leaving the Hawks with a huge draft haul. If Carter and Anderson are gone they trade back.

The QB class next year is better and deeper than this years.

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KHammarling's avatar

1) Everyone should read Seaside Joe! You put out an awesome quality blog here, full of genuinely interesting and well written ideas and content. There's no Ego, no self obsession, and a comment section that carries these same ideals. I try to pass you onto my non-'Hawks friends (because none of my friends are 'Hawks fans). If any of you have 'Hawks friends and they don't read this, you have to force feed them articles until they give in and sub!

2) Bijan #5, riding this dream straight to dissapointment come draft night. (Hope we make some Defensive FA splashes in the coming weeks so this becomes more likely)

3) I would so love to sit inside some of the interview rooms in the coming days and really see how various prospects handle the up close and deeply personal spotlight all the teams will be shining. The Combine tests are fun, but it's all a bit showy for me. I'll stick the full streams on as I fall asleep and just focus on highlights for specific prospects in the weeks after. But the interviews, that's the key bit of the week and we never get to really see how it all plays out. I find it fascinating.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Thank you!

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Dale Roberts's avatar

Sorry this is a longer comment but it just kept coming.

The realization that the S2 scores are historically good means that the top four QBs likely did well. If Richardson, Stroud, or Levis scored a 95, I'm taking him at five if he's available. This also increases the likelyhood that Anderson or Carter falls to five and weakens the case for Byrce Young going first.

We have a tendency to treat the draft in isolation but it's just one component of the team building strategy. Would the Hawks trade a first round pick for DaRon Payne on a sign and trade deal? Maybe he's the chip instead of a 2024 pick. Schneider has touted Dareke Young as a key future piece and Pete still professes love for Eskridge; does that move WR down the draft pecking order? What do the coaches think about Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe, and Darrell Johnson?

Another big question for the draft is how the defensive philosophy will morph this season. The Seahawk defense is based on three factors. First is making every coverage look the same at snap, much like a baseball pitcher wants every pitch to look the same coming out of his hand. Second is stopping the run up the middle, forcing everything outside. Third is getting pressure on third down with solid coverage by the secondary allowing rushers to get sacks. We had big problems with the first, most important component which is why the down linemen have to be replaced. It also indicates they need size for those three guys which is why I don't expect to see someone like Kancey taken by the Hawks. Carter, Breese and Benton remain my favorites in the draft. There are several good candidates in free agency including A'Shawn Robinson and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Second, the outside linebackers have to be able to stand up against the run and keep contain. Nwosu was good at this and Darrell Taylor was terrible which is why Taylor became a situational pass rusher. Third, the inside linebachers must be able to cover the middle zone effectively. If the Hawks spend a lot of time with Adams, Diggs, and Ryan on the field at the same time then we'll have often only one inside linebacker on the field which reduces LB coverage issues.

My pet peeve is Coby Bryant. I think he's a valuable reserve who can play anywhere but I'm not sure he's physically appropriate for the fulltime nickel position. The nickel may be the most demanding position on today's defense. He needs to be quick enough to cover slot receivers but big enough to cover a TE and strong enough to play a significant role in run defense. Someone like Antonio Johnson who I think would have a big impact for the Hawks. I don't know if any of our current DBs check all the boxes.

Objectively, the defensive line is our biggest hole. Given an ideal off-season we'd secure three impact defensive linemen, a quality mike linebacker who can slide to Will, a dynamic edge rusher, and an elite nickel. That is a huge ask for one offseason.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Why didn't Anthony Richardson play for his first 2 years and then play so poorly for year 3? Can this be answered genuinely without any reply of "Well, (THIS OTHER QB) didn't play well." Just speak strictly of the life and times of Richardson and nobody else. Why's he so far behind Bryce Young and CJ Stroud in terms of putting a product on the field 3 years after HS ended?

I don't need to know what an S2 score is to know that top-5 talents could have less question marks than Richardson and Will Levis. Good football players are good football players.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

I see RIchardson as Haskins 2.0 and Levi's as Wentz 2.0.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

How about our 5 snd a high 2nd to move up to 3rd guaranting we get Carter or Anderson?

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Dale Roberts's avatar

In my view, Anderson is Jamal Adams, a guy who's special and plays bigger than his body. Unfortunately, he doesn't answer our biggest problem and I think he'll have injury issues after few years, just like Adams. I'd want to guarantee Carter to make that move but the cost is prohibitive. For Indy move four to one it would cost them picks 4, 36, 80, a 2024 first and a 2024 second. That's the medium projection so it could go higher.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

How about signing B. Wags and Brandon Cooks. No need for unproven rookie LB or 3rd receiver.

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Dale Roberts's avatar

I'm all for signing BWags. Cooks is guaranteed $18 million for 2023. Houston is on the hook for $16 million in Hook's dead cap for 2023. If he'd be willing to play for cheap, sure but I doubt he'll be in our price range and it'd be a one year deal.

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Martin Blank's avatar

What about the opposite direction? If Bryce Young is THAT guy, how about 5, 20, a 2024 2nd and 4th for #1 overall? Chicago doesn’t pick again until 54, so they really could use that extra early pick. That and they don’t have to go too far back in Round 1 where they don’t get the impact defender they should want.

If Bryce Young was 2 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier, teams would be beating Chicago’s door down. Curious what he measures out at this week, because the rest of it seems to be there.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Have written about this in the past before too.

Ultimately, I'm just tired beyond tired sick and tired of hearing about Bryce Young's size. He is what he is, it doesn't matter what he weighs this week after he drinks 30 gallons of water before his weigh-in. Just like it wouldn't matter for the 340 lb guy who cuts 20 lbs before the weigh-in just to add it all back again after.

I'm okay with Young's size. There's no way, in my opinion, he's getting past pick 1.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Love Bryce Young but only if he can get stronger. Joe Montana was the only QB. with " chicken legs " who had a long career.

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Tabby72's avatar

I would be able to accept the deal with Washington but I like the Houston trade most. Still not quite what I would like but being able to essentialy bounce the Denver pick for a year would be outstanding.

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Stu Wilson's avatar

Bit of a different comment here. "Commanders", what a horrible name. Dan Snyder must of picked this one when he was in the Men's Room. I too, refuse to use the C word. Me, I still call them the Redskins. If I had a vote on the new name, I think I would have picked Red Tails. This is a proud and accomplished WW2 fighter group. However, I am sure there is some left wing group out there that could find a way to condemn this name. I am good with 'Moons' Kenneth.

I tend to favor Claude's comment below. My feeling is that John and Pete turned the draft corner last year and I trust that they will do what is absolutely the best for the Seahawks. If that means using their 5 pick for a player, I am good with that. If they feel they can make the Seahawks even better in years to come by trading down, they will do that.

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Dale Roberts's avatar

Only 36% of the team's fans like the new name. Only 2% across the NFL give the name an A. It was decided on by the team's executive staff including Snyder and President Jason Wright. The did a focus group with the team's alumni and they didn't like any of the suggested names. Commanders was apparently like an election where we vote for the least offensive candidate.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

What did you expect from Snyder. Something good?

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Claude Golden's avatar

I would not favor trading down from #5. The Seahawks are more in need of Quality than Quantity, at this point. We already have enough draft capital to stock the roster and that is not the primary need. What we need are Star players to win championships by outperforming their opponents. If all the reports are true that John favored Mahomes and Allen over all the QBs of the past decade, then this strongly hints that, if he goes QB, it will be for Richardson, who most resembles them, right down to howitzer arms but uneven college careers and accuracy concerns. If not QB, then at least one of Carter, Anderson or Wilson will be there at #5, and any would be a huge upgrade for our defense.

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Seaside Joe's avatar

The quantity here is only for 2024 draft capital, as I've stated before, there's no need to add more premium picks in 2023. But there actually might not be a value difference in this particular class from the player at pick 4 and the player at pick 14. Or for that matter, from the player at pick 14 and the player at pick 40. This is a class of depth, not blue chips.

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Paul G's avatar

But, if Schneider doesn't assess any of the remaining players as being worth a #5, he almost has to trade down. Or, if they don't see much difference between Tyree Wilson and--say--Will McDonald, he'd want to trade down if McDonald has continued to project outside of the top 10.

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Dale Roberts's avatar

Unfortunately, I think we're in the position of needing league average quality in quantity. We don't rank as having a starting caliber player at any defensive line position, only Nwosu at linebacker, nickel, center, one guard position, and both offensive tackles. If we had just league average play at every one of those positions our team would be dramatically improved. Some of that will come from the maturation of rookies but most of those positions are vets.

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Paul G's avatar

There’s no center under contract.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

Tha k God!

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