One Big thing you wrote that was GREAT info - is the time it usually takes even Good Draft picks to really start producing how everybody wants them to their first year! Just doesn't usually happen. So just saying to keep that in mind-
Good Thoughts! Me- I draft a OG, Must get a FA center that's an A or A- , Then Draft a True DE (not a LEO) Draft a DT/NT plus in FA get another DT/NT - Draft a LB and fill the rest with best available. Plus the typical FA/UrFA and all the pull in people for a look see that they always do. I don't see them out of the playoffs next year with at least an average draft, But good quality FA acquisitions! Make some great moves and they could make a run!
With regard to the QB situation and our first round picks, I have to trust Pete and John know what they are doing. Let's examine the facts and rumors.
(1) Russell Wilson. Is there any doubt that they projected Russell's value correctly? He was rumored to be taken by the Eagles just after we did and he went on to have a great Seahawks career. They obviously traded Russ at the right time. Certainly the coaching in Denver had some part in Russ' bad season, but did John and Pete KNOW Russ was on the decline? Possible.
(2) Rumors had it that Russell's camp was miffed when JS was seen scouting Patrick Mahomes. Realistic that the Hawks could have picked Mahomes that year? Maybe/maybe not, but if true, Schneider's presence there would show he was looking in the right place as we know who Mahomes is now.
(3) Also rumored that JS was interested in trading Russ to the Browns for their #1 pick as he was interested in taking, not Baker Mayfield, but instead Josh Allen. Just a rumor but if JS was scouting Allen like he was scouting Mahomes, then JS seems to know who the good prospects are.
(4) Geno is not great, but NO ONE expected him to be top 5 QBR this season. For the value and the current state of the roster, Pete and John knew that Geno was the one.
(5) Many of us thought Lock didn't get a fair shake at the job, maybe that's right. But just maybe they "know" the talent is there and we will see that in due time (next season?)
All of this to say, the quarterbacks that JS has focused on whether in reality or rumored have turned out to be right. This gives me the confidence that if they pick a QB at 3 or 12, they know what they are doing and if they trade down, they also know that no QB is good enough for that draft position. I trust that PC/JS will get the "QB of the future" thing right.
I agree to an extent. I actually am very nervous about a top 5 pick and feeling "Obligated" to take someone that your gut tells you to pass on. I feel that a trade that keeps them in the top 10 but yields a 1st rd pick next year is the smart move. This could go on for years until they are ready to use that extra pick to draft a real difference maker.
In 2022, this team has won a fair bit more than expected - in fact, there are several wins that the team record does not account for...yes, the 2022 off-season had a Lot of wins too.
Wins via things that were done:
1) Trading Russ was Huge. 2) Signing Uchenna Nwosu in free-agency was exceptional, 3) Extending DK Metcalf not only was a good move but it shows the team the passion for keeping home-grown talent.
Wins via things that were not:
1) NOT replacing our outgoing QB with any of the schlunks that the media was so anxious for the Hawks to draft or bring in. 2) Not trading DK. 3) Not resigning players who did not fit the direction of the Defense.
Plus the areas prioritized delivered a Big win: 2 OTs, 2 DEs, 2 CBs, 2 depth WRs and even 2 Defensive Coordinators.
BTW - for any who feel this Defense 'experiment' is a failure...well, I suggest those remember that this D has not only a new coordinator (which typically takes time to integrate fully). The D also has 7 new starters, and an 8 has been needed since very early on with the Jamal Adams injury (8 starters take time to jell). Plus 3 of those starters are rookies who typically require nurturing - often times longer than a full season.
Yes, even if Nothing is done to improve the D for 2023, the Hawks will still field better stopping power. Of course, we gotta know the PC/JS team will bring in Interior D-linemen and LB improvement as well. I am looking forward to seeing how this upcoming draft plays out.
Trading down or out early in the draft? Sure. Or not...anything is on the table as long as we prioritize Game-wreckers on D to add to the 2022 influx of talent.
Mainly from a cap management point of view, it makes sense to not have two high 1st round picks from the same draft, and if you can flip one into a future round plus picks then that is hypothetically a good strategy.
One thing is an absolute certainty: the Seahawks will end up swapping some of the draft capital they have into more picks in 2024.
But with so many needs on both sides of the ball it would not surprise me to see the Seahawks make four picks in the first and second rounds even if they flip one (or more) of the picks they currently hold as of today.
Just a comment on process vs results--as much as the organization tries to project future performance of a player based on "measurables", tape, and meetings, it is still a crap shoot and luck does play a role. McDowell is often held out as a draft failure because he never played a down for the Seahawks, but who could have predicted he would make a dumb decision and get injured riding an ATV? Abe Lucas has looked like a stud at RT but he suddenly has pulled up lame with a pateller tendon injury. Will he be injury prone? Who could have predicted the injury? You just never know--you 'pays for your tickets and you takes your chances' as they say.
Speaking of 'process' the Russ trade has worked out to perfection so far--and Pete and John should get full marks for that no matter how the picks turn out. Phase I in 2022 has gone better than could be expected, and they have given themselves a chance to significantly improve the team in 2023.
Please, Santa, ask the Seahawks to dedicate this draft to the running game on both sides of the ball. If we could run the ball and stop the run, we'd have a 12-4 record right now. How ever we accomplish it, we need 3 new starters in the defensive front seven and two on the offensive line. John's challenge will be to unearth a starting linebacker and a wide receiver without using our top four picks which should go to the trenches. A trade with Indy going from 7 to 3 could net another 2nd rounder in 2023 and a 2024 2nd rounder. I hope Indy wants to trade because I don't think a rookie QB will fix their problems. A 2023 second has great value in a draft deep in areas of Seahawk's needs while a 2024 second should be near the top of day 2.
How many Super Bowl seasons can you attribute to a great non-QB? One? Ray Lews is the only example I can think of. The rest were above average rosters at every position and a game changing QB. Can you all think of other examples?
The draft is all about value. Signing players is all about value. The salary cap requires that be the sole focus. I'd be fine with Seattle trading down if the result is better value. Of course that means making a smart (and hopefully correct) evaluation of Carter and Anderson. If one were to lose out on the next Aaron Donald to pick up an extra pick, we'd all be kicking ourselves.
Which leads to my next point. There's no way to avoid the fact that there's a shit-ton of luck involved. Roseman's a good GM but he got lucky. Brown could have gotten injured or not panned out for some other reason. Maybe the players chosen with the traded picks will turn out to be Hall of Famers. It's all a colossal guessing game.
That said, there's no alternative to making the most educated guesses one can and if there seems to be clear value in trading back, then by all means trade back. Owning another team's first rounder has sure made this season fun for me. I've had so many games to watch that would have otherwise seemed irrelevant. Instead, I'm hoping against hope that (for instance, last night) the Cards would knock off the Bucks. Tonight I'll be rooting for the Colts just in case they infringe on our God-given right to choose in the top three (or trade the pick for tons of value).
I am shocked that more Seahawks twitter/blogger personalities don’t see this as a viable option if not a likely option.
The only way you use a top 3 pick for a Dlineman is if they are going to be game wreckers, truly elite. As your previous article wrote, many Dlineman come from the middle of the first round.
The other option for top 3 is a QB. The hawks still have Geno and I still think they will work with lock.
Trading away this years first for a future is that you get to “kick the can down the road” and chose on a qb, if needed, in subsequent years.
I really think this is the most likely scenario that the hawks trade down and continue to build this years roster and next year(s) draft capital.
Dec 26, 2022·edited Dec 26, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
As one of my favorite songwriters Mike Doughty says (sings), "You never know what you're getting or giving up." Like all important things in life, draft trades are all a risk. But I lean towards getting value after decades of watching highly touted draft picks not pan out to be special so many times. The feeling of making a trade where someone was picked before you who turned out TO be special is way less painful than say passing on the highest rated center in the draft for a wr who doesn't produce. I won't be mad almost no matter what they decide is best. Until I have time to see them all play, and then think they should have picked who I though was right, at least.
So hard to know but if you want a real blue chip QB 2024 would be better. I am not against us picking 3. I am not against us picking up proven young talent. Free agency first then the draft. Seattle rarely dips into high end free agents but 3 mid level guys could make a big difference.
Exactly. More prospects improves the odds that one or more will pan out. Another genius front office guy Bill Belicek of the Patriots employs that strategy
I have no idea what the Seahawks will do but it's sure great to have options. Contrast this to 2021 when they had no first and only 3 picks total. I'm so psyched to see what John does with re-signings and in free agency this year... I think we'll have a lot clearer idea what the plan is after that period occurs.
One Big thing you wrote that was GREAT info - is the time it usually takes even Good Draft picks to really start producing how everybody wants them to their first year! Just doesn't usually happen. So just saying to keep that in mind-
Thanks
Good Thoughts! Me- I draft a OG, Must get a FA center that's an A or A- , Then Draft a True DE (not a LEO) Draft a DT/NT plus in FA get another DT/NT - Draft a LB and fill the rest with best available. Plus the typical FA/UrFA and all the pull in people for a look see that they always do. I don't see them out of the playoffs next year with at least an average draft, But good quality FA acquisitions! Make some great moves and they could make a run!
With regard to the QB situation and our first round picks, I have to trust Pete and John know what they are doing. Let's examine the facts and rumors.
(1) Russell Wilson. Is there any doubt that they projected Russell's value correctly? He was rumored to be taken by the Eagles just after we did and he went on to have a great Seahawks career. They obviously traded Russ at the right time. Certainly the coaching in Denver had some part in Russ' bad season, but did John and Pete KNOW Russ was on the decline? Possible.
(2) Rumors had it that Russell's camp was miffed when JS was seen scouting Patrick Mahomes. Realistic that the Hawks could have picked Mahomes that year? Maybe/maybe not, but if true, Schneider's presence there would show he was looking in the right place as we know who Mahomes is now.
(3) Also rumored that JS was interested in trading Russ to the Browns for their #1 pick as he was interested in taking, not Baker Mayfield, but instead Josh Allen. Just a rumor but if JS was scouting Allen like he was scouting Mahomes, then JS seems to know who the good prospects are.
(4) Geno is not great, but NO ONE expected him to be top 5 QBR this season. For the value and the current state of the roster, Pete and John knew that Geno was the one.
(5) Many of us thought Lock didn't get a fair shake at the job, maybe that's right. But just maybe they "know" the talent is there and we will see that in due time (next season?)
All of this to say, the quarterbacks that JS has focused on whether in reality or rumored have turned out to be right. This gives me the confidence that if they pick a QB at 3 or 12, they know what they are doing and if they trade down, they also know that no QB is good enough for that draft position. I trust that PC/JS will get the "QB of the future" thing right.
I agree to an extent. I actually am very nervous about a top 5 pick and feeling "Obligated" to take someone that your gut tells you to pass on. I feel that a trade that keeps them in the top 10 but yields a 1st rd pick next year is the smart move. This could go on for years until they are ready to use that extra pick to draft a real difference maker.
In 2022, this team has won a fair bit more than expected - in fact, there are several wins that the team record does not account for...yes, the 2022 off-season had a Lot of wins too.
Wins via things that were done:
1) Trading Russ was Huge. 2) Signing Uchenna Nwosu in free-agency was exceptional, 3) Extending DK Metcalf not only was a good move but it shows the team the passion for keeping home-grown talent.
Wins via things that were not:
1) NOT replacing our outgoing QB with any of the schlunks that the media was so anxious for the Hawks to draft or bring in. 2) Not trading DK. 3) Not resigning players who did not fit the direction of the Defense.
Plus the areas prioritized delivered a Big win: 2 OTs, 2 DEs, 2 CBs, 2 depth WRs and even 2 Defensive Coordinators.
BTW - for any who feel this Defense 'experiment' is a failure...well, I suggest those remember that this D has not only a new coordinator (which typically takes time to integrate fully). The D also has 7 new starters, and an 8 has been needed since very early on with the Jamal Adams injury (8 starters take time to jell). Plus 3 of those starters are rookies who typically require nurturing - often times longer than a full season.
Yes, even if Nothing is done to improve the D for 2023, the Hawks will still field better stopping power. Of course, we gotta know the PC/JS team will bring in Interior D-linemen and LB improvement as well. I am looking forward to seeing how this upcoming draft plays out.
Trading down or out early in the draft? Sure. Or not...anything is on the table as long as we prioritize Game-wreckers on D to add to the 2022 influx of talent.
Mainly from a cap management point of view, it makes sense to not have two high 1st round picks from the same draft, and if you can flip one into a future round plus picks then that is hypothetically a good strategy.
One thing is an absolute certainty: the Seahawks will end up swapping some of the draft capital they have into more picks in 2024.
But with so many needs on both sides of the ball it would not surprise me to see the Seahawks make four picks in the first and second rounds even if they flip one (or more) of the picks they currently hold as of today.
Just a comment on process vs results--as much as the organization tries to project future performance of a player based on "measurables", tape, and meetings, it is still a crap shoot and luck does play a role. McDowell is often held out as a draft failure because he never played a down for the Seahawks, but who could have predicted he would make a dumb decision and get injured riding an ATV? Abe Lucas has looked like a stud at RT but he suddenly has pulled up lame with a pateller tendon injury. Will he be injury prone? Who could have predicted the injury? You just never know--you 'pays for your tickets and you takes your chances' as they say.
Speaking of 'process' the Russ trade has worked out to perfection so far--and Pete and John should get full marks for that no matter how the picks turn out. Phase I in 2022 has gone better than could be expected, and they have given themselves a chance to significantly improve the team in 2023.
Please, Santa, ask the Seahawks to dedicate this draft to the running game on both sides of the ball. If we could run the ball and stop the run, we'd have a 12-4 record right now. How ever we accomplish it, we need 3 new starters in the defensive front seven and two on the offensive line. John's challenge will be to unearth a starting linebacker and a wide receiver without using our top four picks which should go to the trenches. A trade with Indy going from 7 to 3 could net another 2nd rounder in 2023 and a 2024 2nd rounder. I hope Indy wants to trade because I don't think a rookie QB will fix their problems. A 2023 second has great value in a draft deep in areas of Seahawk's needs while a 2024 second should be near the top of day 2.
How many Super Bowl seasons can you attribute to a great non-QB? One? Ray Lews is the only example I can think of. The rest were above average rosters at every position and a game changing QB. Can you all think of other examples?
The draft is all about value. Signing players is all about value. The salary cap requires that be the sole focus. I'd be fine with Seattle trading down if the result is better value. Of course that means making a smart (and hopefully correct) evaluation of Carter and Anderson. If one were to lose out on the next Aaron Donald to pick up an extra pick, we'd all be kicking ourselves.
Which leads to my next point. There's no way to avoid the fact that there's a shit-ton of luck involved. Roseman's a good GM but he got lucky. Brown could have gotten injured or not panned out for some other reason. Maybe the players chosen with the traded picks will turn out to be Hall of Famers. It's all a colossal guessing game.
That said, there's no alternative to making the most educated guesses one can and if there seems to be clear value in trading back, then by all means trade back. Owning another team's first rounder has sure made this season fun for me. I've had so many games to watch that would have otherwise seemed irrelevant. Instead, I'm hoping against hope that (for instance, last night) the Cards would knock off the Bucks. Tonight I'll be rooting for the Colts just in case they infringe on our God-given right to choose in the top three (or trade the pick for tons of value).
Keep Geno? No! Levi's and Richardson? 3rd day maybe!
You trade a top 3 pick for a future high pick and that pick helps that team have a winning record and now you're holding a mid 20s pick! No!
A great player in 2023 is better than a non guaranteed pick in 2024.
Is Penick draft eligible for 2023 ?He's more pro ready than any QB
other than Young.
Great write up!
I am shocked that more Seahawks twitter/blogger personalities don’t see this as a viable option if not a likely option.
The only way you use a top 3 pick for a Dlineman is if they are going to be game wreckers, truly elite. As your previous article wrote, many Dlineman come from the middle of the first round.
The other option for top 3 is a QB. The hawks still have Geno and I still think they will work with lock.
Trading away this years first for a future is that you get to “kick the can down the road” and chose on a qb, if needed, in subsequent years.
I really think this is the most likely scenario that the hawks trade down and continue to build this years roster and next year(s) draft capital.
As one of my favorite songwriters Mike Doughty says (sings), "You never know what you're getting or giving up." Like all important things in life, draft trades are all a risk. But I lean towards getting value after decades of watching highly touted draft picks not pan out to be special so many times. The feeling of making a trade where someone was picked before you who turned out TO be special is way less painful than say passing on the highest rated center in the draft for a wr who doesn't produce. I won't be mad almost no matter what they decide is best. Until I have time to see them all play, and then think they should have picked who I though was right, at least.
So hard to know but if you want a real blue chip QB 2024 would be better. I am not against us picking 3. I am not against us picking up proven young talent. Free agency first then the draft. Seattle rarely dips into high end free agents but 3 mid level guys could make a big difference.
The answer is in Pete's mantra= Win forever.
I will be shocked if they use what is currently #3 overall for anything but.
Exactly. More prospects improves the odds that one or more will pan out. Another genius front office guy Bill Belicek of the Patriots employs that strategy
I have no idea what the Seahawks will do but it's sure great to have options. Contrast this to 2021 when they had no first and only 3 picks total. I'm so psyched to see what John does with re-signings and in free agency this year... I think we'll have a lot clearer idea what the plan is after that period occurs.
Great article!