One Big thing you wrote that was GREAT info - is the time it usually takes even Good Draft picks to really start producing how everybody wants them to their first year! Just doesn't usually happen. So just saying to keep that in mind-
Good Thoughts! Me- I draft a OG, Must get a FA center that's an A or A- , Then Draft a True DE (not a LEO) Draft a DT/NT plus in FA get another DT/NT - Draft a LB and fill the rest with best available. Plus the typical FA/UrFA and all the pull in people for a look see that they always do. I don't see them out of the playoffs next year with at least an average draft, But good quality FA acquisitions! Make some great moves and they could make a run!
With regard to the QB situation and our first round picks, I have to trust Pete and John know what they are doing. Let's examine the facts and rumors.
(1) Russell Wilson. Is there any doubt that they projected Russell's value correctly? He was rumored to be taken by the Eagles just after we did and he went on to have a great Seahawks career. They obviously traded Russ at the right time. Certainly the coaching in Denver had some part in Russ' bad season, but did John and Pete KNOW Russ was on the decline? Possible.
(2) Rumors had it that Russell's camp was miffed when JS was seen scouting Patrick Mahomes. Realistic that the Hawks could have picked Mahomes that year? Maybe/maybe not, but if true, Schneider's presence there would show he was looking in the right place as we know who Mahomes is now.
(3) Also rumored that JS was interested in trading Russ to the Browns for their #1 pick as he was interested in taking, not Baker Mayfield, but instead Josh Allen. Just a rumor but if JS was scouting Allen like he was scouting Mahomes, then JS seems to know who the good prospects are.
(4) Geno is not great, but NO ONE expected him to be top 5 QBR this season. For the value and the current state of the roster, Pete and John knew that Geno was the one.
(5) Many of us thought Lock didn't get a fair shake at the job, maybe that's right. But just maybe they "know" the talent is there and we will see that in due time (next season?)
All of this to say, the quarterbacks that JS has focused on whether in reality or rumored have turned out to be right. This gives me the confidence that if they pick a QB at 3 or 12, they know what they are doing and if they trade down, they also know that no QB is good enough for that draft position. I trust that PC/JS will get the "QB of the future" thing right.
I agree to an extent. I actually am very nervous about a top 5 pick and feeling "Obligated" to take someone that your gut tells you to pass on. I feel that a trade that keeps them in the top 10 but yields a 1st rd pick next year is the smart move. This could go on for years until they are ready to use that extra pick to draft a real difference maker.
In 2022, this team has won a fair bit more than expected - in fact, there are several wins that the team record does not account for...yes, the 2022 off-season had a Lot of wins too.
Wins via things that were done:
1) Trading Russ was Huge. 2) Signing Uchenna Nwosu in free-agency was exceptional, 3) Extending DK Metcalf not only was a good move but it shows the team the passion for keeping home-grown talent.
Wins via things that were not:
1) NOT replacing our outgoing QB with any of the schlunks that the media was so anxious for the Hawks to draft or bring in. 2) Not trading DK. 3) Not resigning players who did not fit the direction of the Defense.
Plus the areas prioritized delivered a Big win: 2 OTs, 2 DEs, 2 CBs, 2 depth WRs and even 2 Defensive Coordinators.
BTW - for any who feel this Defense 'experiment' is a failure...well, I suggest those remember that this D has not only a new coordinator (which typically takes time to integrate fully). The D also has 7 new starters, and an 8 has been needed since very early on with the Jamal Adams injury (8 starters take time to jell). Plus 3 of those starters are rookies who typically require nurturing - often times longer than a full season.
Yes, even if Nothing is done to improve the D for 2023, the Hawks will still field better stopping power. Of course, we gotta know the PC/JS team will bring in Interior D-linemen and LB improvement as well. I am looking forward to seeing how this upcoming draft plays out.
Trading down or out early in the draft? Sure. Or not...anything is on the table as long as we prioritize Game-wreckers on D to add to the 2022 influx of talent.
Mainly from a cap management point of view, it makes sense to not have two high 1st round picks from the same draft, and if you can flip one into a future round plus picks then that is hypothetically a good strategy.
One thing is an absolute certainty: the Seahawks will end up swapping some of the draft capital they have into more picks in 2024.
But with so many needs on both sides of the ball it would not surprise me to see the Seahawks make four picks in the first and second rounds even if they flip one (or more) of the picks they currently hold as of today.
Just a comment on process vs results--as much as the organization tries to project future performance of a player based on "measurables", tape, and meetings, it is still a crap shoot and luck does play a role. McDowell is often held out as a draft failure because he never played a down for the Seahawks, but who could have predicted he would make a dumb decision and get injured riding an ATV? Abe Lucas has looked like a stud at RT but he suddenly has pulled up lame with a pateller tendon injury. Will he be injury prone? Who could have predicted the injury? You just never know--you 'pays for your tickets and you takes your chances' as they say.
Speaking of 'process' the Russ trade has worked out to perfection so far--and Pete and John should get full marks for that no matter how the picks turn out. Phase I in 2022 has gone better than could be expected, and they have given themselves a chance to significantly improve the team in 2023.
Please, Santa, ask the Seahawks to dedicate this draft to the running game on both sides of the ball. If we could run the ball and stop the run, we'd have a 12-4 record right now. How ever we accomplish it, we need 3 new starters in the defensive front seven and two on the offensive line. John's challenge will be to unearth a starting linebacker and a wide receiver without using our top four picks which should go to the trenches. A trade with Indy going from 7 to 3 could net another 2nd rounder in 2023 and a 2024 2nd rounder. I hope Indy wants to trade because I don't think a rookie QB will fix their problems. A 2023 second has great value in a draft deep in areas of Seahawk's needs while a 2024 second should be near the top of day 2.
How many Super Bowl seasons can you attribute to a great non-QB? One? Ray Lews is the only example I can think of. The rest were above average rosters at every position and a game changing QB. Can you all think of other examples?
Better go back and review many of the Sb's. How many SB winners had a D worse than a number 14 ranking. Plus there are several SB winning teams without a top 5 QB- Just not below- again a number 14 (normally). Other than the QB, a Very Good O-line should be the top priority on Offense.
The draft is all about value. Signing players is all about value. The salary cap requires that be the sole focus. I'd be fine with Seattle trading down if the result is better value. Of course that means making a smart (and hopefully correct) evaluation of Carter and Anderson. If one were to lose out on the next Aaron Donald to pick up an extra pick, we'd all be kicking ourselves.
Which leads to my next point. There's no way to avoid the fact that there's a shit-ton of luck involved. Roseman's a good GM but he got lucky. Brown could have gotten injured or not panned out for some other reason. Maybe the players chosen with the traded picks will turn out to be Hall of Famers. It's all a colossal guessing game.
That said, there's no alternative to making the most educated guesses one can and if there seems to be clear value in trading back, then by all means trade back. Owning another team's first rounder has sure made this season fun for me. I've had so many games to watch that would have otherwise seemed irrelevant. Instead, I'm hoping against hope that (for instance, last night) the Cards would knock off the Bucks. Tonight I'll be rooting for the Colts just in case they infringe on our God-given right to choose in the top three (or trade the pick for tons of value).
I looked at how the Vikings have drafted since 2014 which is how far their draft stats go back to with Lance Zierlein's ratings. With their picks in the top 80 they have been pretty consistent with taking one of the top players available except in 2021 their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th players taken have already been cut, and in 2022, perhaps because of new coaches, all of the players taken were a bit of a reach with the exception of Andrew Booth.
When Jefferson was drafted he was the 4th rated receiver and the 4th taken. He fell to them because he just happened to be one of the best players left.
Going back to 2013 they drafted Coradelle Patterson (bust) and Laquon Treadwell (bust) in 2016. In 2017 they took center Pat Elflein (kind of a bust) with their 2nd pick and then drafted center Garrett Bradbury with their first pick (18) two years later. After Justin Jefferson they took Jeff Gladney who they waived, was picked up by Arizona, then died in a car accident in May of this year. Bradbury was thought to be a bust until this year when he seemed to flip the switch. Brian O'Neil (2nd round 2018), Bradbury (1st round 2019), Cleveland (3rd round 2020), Darrisaw (1st round 2021), and Ed Ingram (2nd round 2022) compose the starting offensive line. As you can see they've invested a ton of draft capital in those guys and hopefully they can grow together. Their drafting doesn't seem to be much better/worse than anybody else. I do like what they've done with the offensive line.
Even though some of those picks were busts, they were reasonable based on how the players were rated except they seemed to take more of a chance with the corner back position with some of their higher picks. It will be interesting to see how they do moving forward with new gm and head coach. It looks like their drafting policy has changed away from BPA.
Agreed. My only point was that the Vikings haven't beaten the draft odds. I like what they've done over the last five years in targeting the offensive line with high picks; they have the best odds of success.
I think Jefferson has given you a rosey view of their draft prowess. I can only find two other examples across since 2015 in Dalvin Cook and Stephon Diggs. That's balanced by Laquon Treadwell and Kellen Mond. I know Mond is a QB but that was a bad pick at 66. Mostly, they just don't draft many WRs or RBs.
Yup but let's be honest. They got lucky on Jefferson justs like the Hawks got lucky on Wilson, Wagner, and Sherman. If anyone knew they were going to dominate their position they would have been taken much higher. Every team has their hits and whiffs. I like what they're doing though. The safest pick is offensive line and they've spent the last five years spending a ton of draft capital on their line. I think it'll pay off and now they can add through trades like they did with Hockinson.
Everyone makes bad picks. There's a lot of, at best, educated guessing involved. It's not a science. Organizations can minimize the risk by having great scouting and evaluation people, but there are too many unknowns to develop serious consistency. Some teams are marginally better than others and those are the teams that tend to have long-term success. By any reasonable standard, Seattle's been among the better teams -- though our picks tend to be big hit or total miss, whereas a team like the Chiefs tends to be more consistent. At least that's my impression. Also, it's a limited sample size so it's conjecture to make up too much about what our success rate means when measured against that of other teams.
I like one thing that New England does, which is trade guys away before they lose all value. But then they gave up on Brady too soon and so much of their success was connected to him. I think it's ultimately a lot like stock picking. There may be an occasional Peter Lynch or Warren Buffet but good luck finding that person. Some will beat the odds for a few years, in a particular environment, but then under-perform against a different backdrop.
It's weird how the very best draft success odds you can hope for is 50-50 and that's with a high first round pick. It's like going to Vegas or becoming a HOFer because you have a .300 lifetime average. The odds of AJ Brown being good were certainly higher than a draft pick, but AJ also cost a lot more.
Penix is staying at college. Levis is still being touted as a high day one pick. IMO, Richardson might be ready to start in 2025 if ever. Few rookies, even top picks, are great players their first season. A team like Indy that desperately needs a QB and has organization issues is unlikely to see their record jump significantly in a rookie's first season. The only two teams I'd reject trading with are the Jets and the Lions unless it was a kings ransom. They both have accumulated a lot of talent and could be good just by adding a veteran QB. Most of the other teams with picks in the top ten aren't a year away from dropping to the 20th pick.
I am shocked that more Seahawks twitter/blogger personalities don’t see this as a viable option if not a likely option.
The only way you use a top 3 pick for a Dlineman is if they are going to be game wreckers, truly elite. As your previous article wrote, many Dlineman come from the middle of the first round.
The other option for top 3 is a QB. The hawks still have Geno and I still think they will work with lock.
Trading away this years first for a future is that you get to “kick the can down the road” and chose on a qb, if needed, in subsequent years.
I really think this is the most likely scenario that the hawks trade down and continue to build this years roster and next year(s) draft capital.
What surprises me is not necessarily that I have to convince people to agree with me (which I don’t) but that I have to convince people that there’s more than one way to skin a draft. And that their first choice is not the only choice. I only hope to Will people towards keeping an open mind.
There does have to be balance though. I remember the Redskins under George Allen who traded every draft pick for a veteran player. Kind of like the Rams, it worked for a couple of years but eventually imploded.
I was a big fan of those teams. That said, the sustainability of fielding higher priced veterans at nearly every position as Washington did - heck, they even had legitimate stars as back-ups (Sonny Jorgensen, for one). I
n the salary cap era, teams with too much talent that is Not on a rookie contract is the first sign of a slow death. PC/JS lost track of the drafts importance...thank goodness they have returned to early on in the cycle.
Another draft, like this last one and a few more quality free agent pick-ups like Uchenna Nwosu was and this team will be a front-runner for hoisting another trophy after the 2024 season.
Agreed. I am specifically referring to the top pick as it can have a ton of value if the hawks don’t draft one of the rookie QBs. QBs that hit on rookie contracts are one of the biggest advantages in the NFL
If we decide carter is not for us trading down to a QB needy team is a great option.
I don't think rookie QB contracts are as big of an advantage as they used to be since the salaries of pass rushers and WRs have risen so dramatically. Plus the burden of a missed pick at QB can really weigh down a franchise ala Zach Wilson, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or RGIII as the most recent examples. It's a scary QB draft world out there.
The other thing I think to be true, not all the time, but for the most part. Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll are smarter and have better access to information than the bloggers do. Having said that, they do make mistakes and should be held accountable at times.
I agree with you on an open mind. If JS thinks Jalen Carter is that guy ... let’s go. If Anthony Richardson/Levi’s offers the upside in JS’ mind. I’m here for it.
As one of my favorite songwriters Mike Doughty says (sings), "You never know what you're getting or giving up." Like all important things in life, draft trades are all a risk. But I lean towards getting value after decades of watching highly touted draft picks not pan out to be special so many times. The feeling of making a trade where someone was picked before you who turned out TO be special is way less painful than say passing on the highest rated center in the draft for a wr who doesn't produce. I won't be mad almost no matter what they decide is best. Until I have time to see them all play, and then think they should have picked who I though was right, at least.
So hard to know but if you want a real blue chip QB 2024 would be better. I am not against us picking 3. I am not against us picking up proven young talent. Free agency first then the draft. Seattle rarely dips into high end free agents but 3 mid level guys could make a big difference.
Exactly. More prospects improves the odds that one or more will pan out. Another genius front office guy Bill Belicek of the Patriots employs that strategy
I have no idea what the Seahawks will do but it's sure great to have options. Contrast this to 2021 when they had no first and only 3 picks total. I'm so psyched to see what John does with re-signings and in free agency this year... I think we'll have a lot clearer idea what the plan is after that period occurs.
One Big thing you wrote that was GREAT info - is the time it usually takes even Good Draft picks to really start producing how everybody wants them to their first year! Just doesn't usually happen. So just saying to keep that in mind-
Thanks
Good Thoughts! Me- I draft a OG, Must get a FA center that's an A or A- , Then Draft a True DE (not a LEO) Draft a DT/NT plus in FA get another DT/NT - Draft a LB and fill the rest with best available. Plus the typical FA/UrFA and all the pull in people for a look see that they always do. I don't see them out of the playoffs next year with at least an average draft, But good quality FA acquisitions! Make some great moves and they could make a run!
With regard to the QB situation and our first round picks, I have to trust Pete and John know what they are doing. Let's examine the facts and rumors.
(1) Russell Wilson. Is there any doubt that they projected Russell's value correctly? He was rumored to be taken by the Eagles just after we did and he went on to have a great Seahawks career. They obviously traded Russ at the right time. Certainly the coaching in Denver had some part in Russ' bad season, but did John and Pete KNOW Russ was on the decline? Possible.
(2) Rumors had it that Russell's camp was miffed when JS was seen scouting Patrick Mahomes. Realistic that the Hawks could have picked Mahomes that year? Maybe/maybe not, but if true, Schneider's presence there would show he was looking in the right place as we know who Mahomes is now.
(3) Also rumored that JS was interested in trading Russ to the Browns for their #1 pick as he was interested in taking, not Baker Mayfield, but instead Josh Allen. Just a rumor but if JS was scouting Allen like he was scouting Mahomes, then JS seems to know who the good prospects are.
(4) Geno is not great, but NO ONE expected him to be top 5 QBR this season. For the value and the current state of the roster, Pete and John knew that Geno was the one.
(5) Many of us thought Lock didn't get a fair shake at the job, maybe that's right. But just maybe they "know" the talent is there and we will see that in due time (next season?)
All of this to say, the quarterbacks that JS has focused on whether in reality or rumored have turned out to be right. This gives me the confidence that if they pick a QB at 3 or 12, they know what they are doing and if they trade down, they also know that no QB is good enough for that draft position. I trust that PC/JS will get the "QB of the future" thing right.
I agree to an extent. I actually am very nervous about a top 5 pick and feeling "Obligated" to take someone that your gut tells you to pass on. I feel that a trade that keeps them in the top 10 but yields a 1st rd pick next year is the smart move. This could go on for years until they are ready to use that extra pick to draft a real difference maker.
In 2022, this team has won a fair bit more than expected - in fact, there are several wins that the team record does not account for...yes, the 2022 off-season had a Lot of wins too.
Wins via things that were done:
1) Trading Russ was Huge. 2) Signing Uchenna Nwosu in free-agency was exceptional, 3) Extending DK Metcalf not only was a good move but it shows the team the passion for keeping home-grown talent.
Wins via things that were not:
1) NOT replacing our outgoing QB with any of the schlunks that the media was so anxious for the Hawks to draft or bring in. 2) Not trading DK. 3) Not resigning players who did not fit the direction of the Defense.
Plus the areas prioritized delivered a Big win: 2 OTs, 2 DEs, 2 CBs, 2 depth WRs and even 2 Defensive Coordinators.
BTW - for any who feel this Defense 'experiment' is a failure...well, I suggest those remember that this D has not only a new coordinator (which typically takes time to integrate fully). The D also has 7 new starters, and an 8 has been needed since very early on with the Jamal Adams injury (8 starters take time to jell). Plus 3 of those starters are rookies who typically require nurturing - often times longer than a full season.
Yes, even if Nothing is done to improve the D for 2023, the Hawks will still field better stopping power. Of course, we gotta know the PC/JS team will bring in Interior D-linemen and LB improvement as well. I am looking forward to seeing how this upcoming draft plays out.
Trading down or out early in the draft? Sure. Or not...anything is on the table as long as we prioritize Game-wreckers on D to add to the 2022 influx of talent.
Mainly from a cap management point of view, it makes sense to not have two high 1st round picks from the same draft, and if you can flip one into a future round plus picks then that is hypothetically a good strategy.
One thing is an absolute certainty: the Seahawks will end up swapping some of the draft capital they have into more picks in 2024.
But with so many needs on both sides of the ball it would not surprise me to see the Seahawks make four picks in the first and second rounds even if they flip one (or more) of the picks they currently hold as of today.
Just a comment on process vs results--as much as the organization tries to project future performance of a player based on "measurables", tape, and meetings, it is still a crap shoot and luck does play a role. McDowell is often held out as a draft failure because he never played a down for the Seahawks, but who could have predicted he would make a dumb decision and get injured riding an ATV? Abe Lucas has looked like a stud at RT but he suddenly has pulled up lame with a pateller tendon injury. Will he be injury prone? Who could have predicted the injury? You just never know--you 'pays for your tickets and you takes your chances' as they say.
Speaking of 'process' the Russ trade has worked out to perfection so far--and Pete and John should get full marks for that no matter how the picks turn out. Phase I in 2022 has gone better than could be expected, and they have given themselves a chance to significantly improve the team in 2023.
Please, Santa, ask the Seahawks to dedicate this draft to the running game on both sides of the ball. If we could run the ball and stop the run, we'd have a 12-4 record right now. How ever we accomplish it, we need 3 new starters in the defensive front seven and two on the offensive line. John's challenge will be to unearth a starting linebacker and a wide receiver without using our top four picks which should go to the trenches. A trade with Indy going from 7 to 3 could net another 2nd rounder in 2023 and a 2024 2nd rounder. I hope Indy wants to trade because I don't think a rookie QB will fix their problems. A 2023 second has great value in a draft deep in areas of Seahawk's needs while a 2024 second should be near the top of day 2.
How many Super Bowl seasons can you attribute to a great non-QB? One? Ray Lews is the only example I can think of. The rest were above average rosters at every position and a game changing QB. Can you all think of other examples?
Better go back and review many of the Sb's. How many SB winners had a D worse than a number 14 ranking. Plus there are several SB winning teams without a top 5 QB- Just not below- again a number 14 (normally). Other than the QB, a Very Good O-line should be the top priority on Offense.
The draft is all about value. Signing players is all about value. The salary cap requires that be the sole focus. I'd be fine with Seattle trading down if the result is better value. Of course that means making a smart (and hopefully correct) evaluation of Carter and Anderson. If one were to lose out on the next Aaron Donald to pick up an extra pick, we'd all be kicking ourselves.
Which leads to my next point. There's no way to avoid the fact that there's a shit-ton of luck involved. Roseman's a good GM but he got lucky. Brown could have gotten injured or not panned out for some other reason. Maybe the players chosen with the traded picks will turn out to be Hall of Famers. It's all a colossal guessing game.
That said, there's no alternative to making the most educated guesses one can and if there seems to be clear value in trading back, then by all means trade back. Owning another team's first rounder has sure made this season fun for me. I've had so many games to watch that would have otherwise seemed irrelevant. Instead, I'm hoping against hope that (for instance, last night) the Cards would knock off the Bucks. Tonight I'll be rooting for the Colts just in case they infringe on our God-given right to choose in the top three (or trade the pick for tons of value).
There's more than luck. See how the Vikings consistently draft great wide receivers (and pass catching backs).
I looked at how the Vikings have drafted since 2014 which is how far their draft stats go back to with Lance Zierlein's ratings. With their picks in the top 80 they have been pretty consistent with taking one of the top players available except in 2021 their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th players taken have already been cut, and in 2022, perhaps because of new coaches, all of the players taken were a bit of a reach with the exception of Andrew Booth.
When Jefferson was drafted he was the 4th rated receiver and the 4th taken. He fell to them because he just happened to be one of the best players left.
Going back to 2013 they drafted Coradelle Patterson (bust) and Laquon Treadwell (bust) in 2016. In 2017 they took center Pat Elflein (kind of a bust) with their 2nd pick and then drafted center Garrett Bradbury with their first pick (18) two years later. After Justin Jefferson they took Jeff Gladney who they waived, was picked up by Arizona, then died in a car accident in May of this year. Bradbury was thought to be a bust until this year when he seemed to flip the switch. Brian O'Neil (2nd round 2018), Bradbury (1st round 2019), Cleveland (3rd round 2020), Darrisaw (1st round 2021), and Ed Ingram (2nd round 2022) compose the starting offensive line. As you can see they've invested a ton of draft capital in those guys and hopefully they can grow together. Their drafting doesn't seem to be much better/worse than anybody else. I do like what they've done with the offensive line.
Even though some of those picks were busts, they were reasonable based on how the players were rated except they seemed to take more of a chance with the corner back position with some of their higher picks. It will be interesting to see how they do moving forward with new gm and head coach. It looks like their drafting policy has changed away from BPA.
Agreed. My only point was that the Vikings haven't beaten the draft odds. I like what they've done over the last five years in targeting the offensive line with high picks; they have the best odds of success.
I think Jefferson has given you a rosey view of their draft prowess. I can only find two other examples across since 2015 in Dalvin Cook and Stephon Diggs. That's balanced by Laquon Treadwell and Kellen Mond. I know Mond is a QB but that was a bad pick at 66. Mostly, they just don't draft many WRs or RBs.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/draft.htm
Jefferson, Diggs, Thielen (undrafted), Cook.
Yup but let's be honest. They got lucky on Jefferson justs like the Hawks got lucky on Wilson, Wagner, and Sherman. If anyone knew they were going to dominate their position they would have been taken much higher. Every team has their hits and whiffs. I like what they're doing though. The safest pick is offensive line and they've spent the last five years spending a ton of draft capital on their line. I think it'll pay off and now they can add through trades like they did with Hockinson.
Here's a link of the Vikings best and worst recent draft picks:
https://www.twincities.com/2022/01/10/best-worst-vikings-draft-picks-of-rick-spielmans-tenure/
Everyone makes bad picks. There's a lot of, at best, educated guessing involved. It's not a science. Organizations can minimize the risk by having great scouting and evaluation people, but there are too many unknowns to develop serious consistency. Some teams are marginally better than others and those are the teams that tend to have long-term success. By any reasonable standard, Seattle's been among the better teams -- though our picks tend to be big hit or total miss, whereas a team like the Chiefs tends to be more consistent. At least that's my impression. Also, it's a limited sample size so it's conjecture to make up too much about what our success rate means when measured against that of other teams.
I like one thing that New England does, which is trade guys away before they lose all value. But then they gave up on Brady too soon and so much of their success was connected to him. I think it's ultimately a lot like stock picking. There may be an occasional Peter Lynch or Warren Buffet but good luck finding that person. Some will beat the odds for a few years, in a particular environment, but then under-perform against a different backdrop.
It's weird how the very best draft success odds you can hope for is 50-50 and that's with a high first round pick. It's like going to Vegas or becoming a HOFer because you have a .300 lifetime average. The odds of AJ Brown being good were certainly higher than a draft pick, but AJ also cost a lot more.
The chances of Adams being good were higher than a draft pick too.
Keep Geno? No! Levi's and Richardson? 3rd day maybe!
You trade a top 3 pick for a future high pick and that pick helps that team have a winning record and now you're holding a mid 20s pick! No!
A great player in 2023 is better than a non guaranteed pick in 2024.
Is Penick draft eligible for 2023 ?He's more pro ready than any QB
other than Young.
Penix is staying at college. Levis is still being touted as a high day one pick. IMO, Richardson might be ready to start in 2025 if ever. Few rookies, even top picks, are great players their first season. A team like Indy that desperately needs a QB and has organization issues is unlikely to see their record jump significantly in a rookie's first season. The only two teams I'd reject trading with are the Jets and the Lions unless it was a kings ransom. They both have accumulated a lot of talent and could be good just by adding a veteran QB. Most of the other teams with picks in the top ten aren't a year away from dropping to the 20th pick.
Great write up!
I am shocked that more Seahawks twitter/blogger personalities don’t see this as a viable option if not a likely option.
The only way you use a top 3 pick for a Dlineman is if they are going to be game wreckers, truly elite. As your previous article wrote, many Dlineman come from the middle of the first round.
The other option for top 3 is a QB. The hawks still have Geno and I still think they will work with lock.
Trading away this years first for a future is that you get to “kick the can down the road” and chose on a qb, if needed, in subsequent years.
I really think this is the most likely scenario that the hawks trade down and continue to build this years roster and next year(s) draft capital.
What surprises me is not necessarily that I have to convince people to agree with me (which I don’t) but that I have to convince people that there’s more than one way to skin a draft. And that their first choice is not the only choice. I only hope to Will people towards keeping an open mind.
There does have to be balance though. I remember the Redskins under George Allen who traded every draft pick for a veteran player. Kind of like the Rams, it worked for a couple of years but eventually imploded.
Yea- and Allen always seemed to go for the really older Vets that usually only had one or two years left. Always felt that was his major issue.
I was a big fan of those teams. That said, the sustainability of fielding higher priced veterans at nearly every position as Washington did - heck, they even had legitimate stars as back-ups (Sonny Jorgensen, for one). I
n the salary cap era, teams with too much talent that is Not on a rookie contract is the first sign of a slow death. PC/JS lost track of the drafts importance...thank goodness they have returned to early on in the cycle.
Another draft, like this last one and a few more quality free agent pick-ups like Uchenna Nwosu was and this team will be a front-runner for hoisting another trophy after the 2024 season.
Very Possible if the spend their FA dollars on the right position and right people!
Agreed. I am specifically referring to the top pick as it can have a ton of value if the hawks don’t draft one of the rookie QBs. QBs that hit on rookie contracts are one of the biggest advantages in the NFL
If we decide carter is not for us trading down to a QB needy team is a great option.
I don't think rookie QB contracts are as big of an advantage as they used to be since the salaries of pass rushers and WRs have risen so dramatically. Plus the burden of a missed pick at QB can really weigh down a franchise ala Zach Wilson, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or RGIII as the most recent examples. It's a scary QB draft world out there.
Yes! Well said.
The other thing I think to be true, not all the time, but for the most part. Jon Schneider and Pete Carroll are smarter and have better access to information than the bloggers do. Having said that, they do make mistakes and should be held accountable at times.
I agree with you on an open mind. If JS thinks Jalen Carter is that guy ... let’s go. If Anthony Richardson/Levi’s offers the upside in JS’ mind. I’m here for it.
Good stuff Joe!
As one of my favorite songwriters Mike Doughty says (sings), "You never know what you're getting or giving up." Like all important things in life, draft trades are all a risk. But I lean towards getting value after decades of watching highly touted draft picks not pan out to be special so many times. The feeling of making a trade where someone was picked before you who turned out TO be special is way less painful than say passing on the highest rated center in the draft for a wr who doesn't produce. I won't be mad almost no matter what they decide is best. Until I have time to see them all play, and then think they should have picked who I though was right, at least.
So hard to know but if you want a real blue chip QB 2024 would be better. I am not against us picking 3. I am not against us picking up proven young talent. Free agency first then the draft. Seattle rarely dips into high end free agents but 3 mid level guys could make a big difference.
Amen! You should use the draft to supplement proven veteran talent.
The answer is in Pete's mantra= Win forever.
I will be shocked if they use what is currently #3 overall for anything but.
Exactly. More prospects improves the odds that one or more will pan out. Another genius front office guy Bill Belicek of the Patriots employs that strategy
Pete/John have always employed the "more is better" strategy in the draft.
100%!
I have no idea what the Seahawks will do but it's sure great to have options. Contrast this to 2021 when they had no first and only 3 picks total. I'm so psyched to see what John does with re-signings and in free agency this year... I think we'll have a lot clearer idea what the plan is after that period occurs.
So much better with more options!
Great article!
Thanks Adam!