I like this guy's videos and we have improved over the course of the season. I hope that Cross and Lucas have made strides and will make an even bigger leap in year two. Blythe is not good. Jackson has the knowledge and skill of a vet but his body betrays him too often. I don't know about Haynes. We have at least three-fifths of a good line but it may be two new players and late-season 2023 before it coalesces into a formidable unit.
After drafting Bijan Robinson at 13 and Mike Mayer at 19 - noting that I believe we would rather have the Jets 13 & 49 vs 13 and next year's #1. Why? It is so we can load up on more O.
So with those three 2nd-round picks: a Primo OG, Bad-azzed C, and Field-tilting WR. Moving on from RG Gabe Jackson and an upgrade at C (keeping Austin Blythe as a mentor like he did in KC last year), replacing Penny and Dissley with younger/healthier athletes with what many are calling Pro-bowl talent...
BTW - typically the best Centers begin to be selected in the 2nd-round and this year there are 4-5 real studs coming out. For RG, only the all-world OGs get selected later in the 1st-round so we would be on track to select the Best RB, Best TE, Best C, a top two OG and a game changing WR...
All this providing Geno can be signed and that we can find worthy LB depth as well as anything that can be done by JS/PC to upgrade our run defense. Of course one thing will happen naturally as our 7-8 new starters on D this year will have more time together and another off-season with their Defensive Coordinator. Yes, time will indeed help those 3 rookie starter too. I expect a big upgrade to happen.
So, if we were going All-in on Offense, wouldn't be cool to have Geno Smith back, TOP of the draft talent at RB, TE, plus Hard-edged Ball-busting RG and C to go with a 3rd WR with the talent to replace Tyler Locket when he chooses to hang up his toe-drag-swagging cleats?
That would be a Lot of offensive talent infusion. Use free agency and the rest of the draft on Defense. Right?
Looking over all the comments and theories, one thing is clear. The Hawks require improvement or depth just about everywhere. I trust Pete and John to find a balance that suits their plans. They have done it before, they’ll do it again. I also trust they will make us competitive again as they always have. I just hope they do it while also looking to build a Super Bowl challenging team for 2024/25. I think there’s too much to improve for that to happen next season, and staying competitive next season will keep all us fans interested. Also, very little is being discussed about coaching positions. Pete has been known to be pretty ruthless there if someone he thinks is better is available. Will changes be made and should there be?
Many different sites have so similar draft picks for any 'n every team that it's difficult to tell the difference (many of us fans, too), but not here. Kudos!
Under this plan, if we can't upgrade the defense in the later rounds the plan will be to out score the other team the way the Vikings do. If they are good and productive for 5 years, draft away.
I would love this approach if JS could execute an above average offseason prior to the draft by clearing discussed cap causilties and improve Off. & Def. interiors. Unfortunately these areas have been low priorities for most of the PC/JS era. Thus we will not likely be flexible enough for this slick 1st round maneuvering. Seems a little like a fantasy football approach. Trenches matter.
The draft capital spent on the offensive line in the JS era has been significant; 2016-1st, 2017-2nd, 2018-4th, 2019-4th, 2020-3rd, 2022-1st+3rd. He's tried to boost the defensive line through trades; Sheldon Richardson and Jadaveon Clowney are examples but the league's stout defensive lines are populated with first round picks we haven't had for a decade. I agree this is the year to replenish the defensive line and get at least a long term center.
I'd be good with this scenario, if it played out. But at number 5, we'll likely have to wait until the draft to see how things play out. I'd not be shocked if Anderson or Carter remained available. Or for that matter, any of the top QB prospects. In some ways, number 5 is less challenging than number 3 because it's a more reactive spot to pick from. If one chooses higher up, one needs to assess if anyone is likely to be worth the handsome draft capital expended and one had better be right. Further down, one can assess whether someone who a team might have chosen at number 1 or 2 has slipped and might present great value and a smart risk.
If I were GM, I'd feel so much better choosing Carter or Anderson at #5 than I would at #3 or #2. Of course trade-down options are better at the top of the draft. Or at least could be. At #5, we won't likely know what opportunities materialize until draft day.
The other concern is I think we need to improve both of our lines. We have two tackles to build around but I'd love to pick up guys at every other position on both sides of the ball. I think that's the spot where there's the most potential to leverage value. Line play has a huge impact on a team's success though the players themselves tend to go so-often unnoticed.
I wanted to share this quote from Jim Nagy, a former Seahawk scout who now runs the Senior Bowl. He stated, "If you're an NFL scout ... if you put a franchise-level grade on Bryce Young and you put a free agent grade on Stetson Bennett, in my opinion you've really hurt your argument for Bryce Young," Nagy said. "Because the size is a drawback on both of those players. Now Bryce has a stronger arm, no question about that. But from talking to those guys there, Stetson's going to run [the 40-yard dash] in the 4.5's, which is rolling for a quarterback. So the kid can legitimately run. He's very efficient. Has full command of that offense. Could potentially win back-to-back national championships. So if one guy is a franchise quarterback and a top-five pick, this other guy at least you have to give a seventh-round grade."
Are Robinson and K9 different? Dallas works because Elliot and Pollard have different styles. K9 gets better later in the game when he's in a rhythm. Would Robinson disrupt that flow?
Mayer is a pick I hadn't considered because first round TEs haven't been that productive relative to their cost. I like Mayer's blocking but unless we plan on jettisoning Fant or Parkinson, we already have three capable pass catching TEs on the roster. We need a third receiver more than a duplication of what we have. Quentin Johson would be ideal because he provides a big target and moves well after the catch. I'd much rather have Johnson, Parker Washington, or Jaxon Smith-Njiba than Mayer.
The trenches on both sides of the ball lack talent. I'm all in on trading down but ignoring our most obvious needs with our top picks seems foolhardy. I really like Minnesota's approach; they've spent a first, second, or third round pick on an offensive lineman every year since 2016. Whether through the draft or free agency, one of the more impactful moves would be a left guard that can compliment Charles Cross. Lewis is good, not great and I'd rather see him on his more natural right side of the line.
What do we need from the defensive front three in our 3-4 alignment? Their job is to hold their ground in the run game and occupy blockers in the pass rush. Linebackers are the play makers in a 3-4. Al Woods has been our best defensive lineman but at 36 how long can he continue? The other two need to be stout but quick to add pressure up the middle. I've dismissed anyone under three hundred pounds; Gervon Dexter at 6'6, 313 with great strength might be the prototype. Zach Pickens and Keondre Coburn are guys who might be available in the third round that fit the "stout against the run with some pass rush" genre. A rotation of Mafe and Taylor appears to have evolved with Mafe superior against the run and Taylor a pure pass rusher. We still need to give Nwosu a break but Darryl Johnson might be that rotational guy. Even though we have Al Woods, Siaka Ika would be tough to pass up if available. He's the closet athlete to Vita Vea since 2018.
If we trade down and Quentin Johnson were available I'd grab him. Otherwise, this draft needs to be about improving our overall talent level rather than drafting for instant impact.
Great post by you, Dale! Couldn’t agree with you more. Also look at what Howie Roseman with the Eagles. One of the things he did was focused on the LOS and got them back in contention quickly. I’m sure it didn’t sit well with PCJS that teams ran all over us. Go back to the early 2010s when the Steelers did that to us and JS said it made him sick to his stomach.
We also need a nickel CB like Brian Branch of Alabama. I dont think Coby progressed enough.
If I could, I would attach a gif of the Martians' from "Mars Attacks!" heads exploding to indicate the sports media and average Hawks fan's reaction to spending a 1rst round pick on Bijan Robinson.
I don't hate this idea. I could never hate adding special players to the roster no matter the position or current personnel. However, you only do this if you have a clear and innovative offensive vision of how to use both RBs, because you'll spend the rest of the season working to prove everyone wrong (not that that has ever been a concern for Pete and John).
I'm becoming more convinced stockpiling offensive weapons is the right course of action for this team. The only thing that concerns me with this approach to the draft is how other NFL teams are evaluating these players (or what their priorities are). I mean, that's the fun of the draft: it's not just who the best players are, but where finding the best value by predicting where other teams go. Finding the best value is tough; it requires navigating through the smokescreens other teams are putting up. They'll be lots of excitement and surprise come late April!
We already have 2 good running backs ( Walker and Penny) and 3 good tight ends ( Fant ,Dissly and Parkinson) What we need is DL and interior line help.
Doubling down on positions of strength doesn't help our run defense, our pass rush or our running game.
Penny's a free agent, so there's no guarantee he's coming back. And you have to worry about Dissly a lot like Kenneth said, so those positions aren't as strong as you make them out to be.
And the Seahawks aren't likely to keep both Parkinson and Fant past 2023. Probably need to choose one. Plus the Jets lost Breece Hall and completely fell apart, so having two good running backs is important.
Usually that means a A and A- and I think Walker needs double digit carries to be effective. You're talking about A+ and A+. If we were the Niners, Eagles, or Chiefs I'd be all over Robinson. The only reason I wouldn't keep both Fant and Parkinson is that neither are great blockers.
I like this idea if...Carter and Anderson are off the board by #5. Bijan is really tempting if we trade away #5 for a later '23 FR pick in that scenario.
Niners are where they are because of a strong defense. Vikings because of their offense. Always different ways to get to the playoffs. Taking into account the tendencies or persona of the HC, Hawks should have a strong defense. Trading #5 to get Bijan when Carter or Anderson are gone may still allow that to happen. But I think going the Bijan route demands heavy investment into the IOL which now may or may not facilitate the needs of the defense.
Hawks need to revamp the entire defensive front seven and maybe only retain one or two incumbents as part of that. Starting to feel like this will take multiple years to accomplish between draft and FA. Going heavy into draft capital for offense is a bridge too far then.
I ran across this video of a critique of the Hawks offensive line. The author is a big fan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jXUwXD8Wug8
I like this guy's videos and we have improved over the course of the season. I hope that Cross and Lucas have made strides and will make an even bigger leap in year two. Blythe is not good. Jackson has the knowledge and skill of a vet but his body betrays him too often. I don't know about Haynes. We have at least three-fifths of a good line but it may be two new players and late-season 2023 before it coalesces into a formidable unit.
Taking this further...
After drafting Bijan Robinson at 13 and Mike Mayer at 19 - noting that I believe we would rather have the Jets 13 & 49 vs 13 and next year's #1. Why? It is so we can load up on more O.
So with those three 2nd-round picks: a Primo OG, Bad-azzed C, and Field-tilting WR. Moving on from RG Gabe Jackson and an upgrade at C (keeping Austin Blythe as a mentor like he did in KC last year), replacing Penny and Dissley with younger/healthier athletes with what many are calling Pro-bowl talent...
BTW - typically the best Centers begin to be selected in the 2nd-round and this year there are 4-5 real studs coming out. For RG, only the all-world OGs get selected later in the 1st-round so we would be on track to select the Best RB, Best TE, Best C, a top two OG and a game changing WR...
All this providing Geno can be signed and that we can find worthy LB depth as well as anything that can be done by JS/PC to upgrade our run defense. Of course one thing will happen naturally as our 7-8 new starters on D this year will have more time together and another off-season with their Defensive Coordinator. Yes, time will indeed help those 3 rookie starter too. I expect a big upgrade to happen.
So, if we were going All-in on Offense, wouldn't be cool to have Geno Smith back, TOP of the draft talent at RB, TE, plus Hard-edged Ball-busting RG and C to go with a 3rd WR with the talent to replace Tyler Locket when he chooses to hang up his toe-drag-swagging cleats?
That would be a Lot of offensive talent infusion. Use free agency and the rest of the draft on Defense. Right?
Looking over all the comments and theories, one thing is clear. The Hawks require improvement or depth just about everywhere. I trust Pete and John to find a balance that suits their plans. They have done it before, they’ll do it again. I also trust they will make us competitive again as they always have. I just hope they do it while also looking to build a Super Bowl challenging team for 2024/25. I think there’s too much to improve for that to happen next season, and staying competitive next season will keep all us fans interested. Also, very little is being discussed about coaching positions. Pete has been known to be pretty ruthless there if someone he thinks is better is available. Will changes be made and should there be?
Side Topic: Did everyone see this? https://youtu.be/jr5sAG3mag8
RE: Gino Smith contract -- They are asking for opinions in the comment section.
It's a reasonable assessment.
Churning, Churning, KenJoe's mind is Churning.
Many different sites have so similar draft picks for any 'n every team that it's difficult to tell the difference (many of us fans, too), but not here. Kudos!
Under this plan, if we can't upgrade the defense in the later rounds the plan will be to out score the other team the way the Vikings do. If they are good and productive for 5 years, draft away.
I would love this approach if JS could execute an above average offseason prior to the draft by clearing discussed cap causilties and improve Off. & Def. interiors. Unfortunately these areas have been low priorities for most of the PC/JS era. Thus we will not likely be flexible enough for this slick 1st round maneuvering. Seems a little like a fantasy football approach. Trenches matter.
The draft capital spent on the offensive line in the JS era has been significant; 2016-1st, 2017-2nd, 2018-4th, 2019-4th, 2020-3rd, 2022-1st+3rd. He's tried to boost the defensive line through trades; Sheldon Richardson and Jadaveon Clowney are examples but the league's stout defensive lines are populated with first round picks we haven't had for a decade. I agree this is the year to replenish the defensive line and get at least a long term center.
I'd be good with this scenario, if it played out. But at number 5, we'll likely have to wait until the draft to see how things play out. I'd not be shocked if Anderson or Carter remained available. Or for that matter, any of the top QB prospects. In some ways, number 5 is less challenging than number 3 because it's a more reactive spot to pick from. If one chooses higher up, one needs to assess if anyone is likely to be worth the handsome draft capital expended and one had better be right. Further down, one can assess whether someone who a team might have chosen at number 1 or 2 has slipped and might present great value and a smart risk.
If I were GM, I'd feel so much better choosing Carter or Anderson at #5 than I would at #3 or #2. Of course trade-down options are better at the top of the draft. Or at least could be. At #5, we won't likely know what opportunities materialize until draft day.
The other concern is I think we need to improve both of our lines. We have two tackles to build around but I'd love to pick up guys at every other position on both sides of the ball. I think that's the spot where there's the most potential to leverage value. Line play has a huge impact on a team's success though the players themselves tend to go so-often unnoticed.
The only reason three would have been better is for the trade-down possiblities.
I wanted to share this quote from Jim Nagy, a former Seahawk scout who now runs the Senior Bowl. He stated, "If you're an NFL scout ... if you put a franchise-level grade on Bryce Young and you put a free agent grade on Stetson Bennett, in my opinion you've really hurt your argument for Bryce Young," Nagy said. "Because the size is a drawback on both of those players. Now Bryce has a stronger arm, no question about that. But from talking to those guys there, Stetson's going to run [the 40-yard dash] in the 4.5's, which is rolling for a quarterback. So the kid can legitimately run. He's very efficient. Has full command of that offense. Could potentially win back-to-back national championships. So if one guy is a franchise quarterback and a top-five pick, this other guy at least you have to give a seventh-round grade."
Are Robinson and K9 different? Dallas works because Elliot and Pollard have different styles. K9 gets better later in the game when he's in a rhythm. Would Robinson disrupt that flow?
Mayer is a pick I hadn't considered because first round TEs haven't been that productive relative to their cost. I like Mayer's blocking but unless we plan on jettisoning Fant or Parkinson, we already have three capable pass catching TEs on the roster. We need a third receiver more than a duplication of what we have. Quentin Johson would be ideal because he provides a big target and moves well after the catch. I'd much rather have Johnson, Parker Washington, or Jaxon Smith-Njiba than Mayer.
The trenches on both sides of the ball lack talent. I'm all in on trading down but ignoring our most obvious needs with our top picks seems foolhardy. I really like Minnesota's approach; they've spent a first, second, or third round pick on an offensive lineman every year since 2016. Whether through the draft or free agency, one of the more impactful moves would be a left guard that can compliment Charles Cross. Lewis is good, not great and I'd rather see him on his more natural right side of the line.
What do we need from the defensive front three in our 3-4 alignment? Their job is to hold their ground in the run game and occupy blockers in the pass rush. Linebackers are the play makers in a 3-4. Al Woods has been our best defensive lineman but at 36 how long can he continue? The other two need to be stout but quick to add pressure up the middle. I've dismissed anyone under three hundred pounds; Gervon Dexter at 6'6, 313 with great strength might be the prototype. Zach Pickens and Keondre Coburn are guys who might be available in the third round that fit the "stout against the run with some pass rush" genre. A rotation of Mafe and Taylor appears to have evolved with Mafe superior against the run and Taylor a pure pass rusher. We still need to give Nwosu a break but Darryl Johnson might be that rotational guy. Even though we have Al Woods, Siaka Ika would be tough to pass up if available. He's the closet athlete to Vita Vea since 2018.
If we trade down and Quentin Johnson were available I'd grab him. Otherwise, this draft needs to be about improving our overall talent level rather than drafting for instant impact.
Great post by you, Dale! Couldn’t agree with you more. Also look at what Howie Roseman with the Eagles. One of the things he did was focused on the LOS and got them back in contention quickly. I’m sure it didn’t sit well with PCJS that teams ran all over us. Go back to the early 2010s when the Steelers did that to us and JS said it made him sick to his stomach.
We also need a nickel CB like Brian Branch of Alabama. I dont think Coby progressed enough.
If I could, I would attach a gif of the Martians' from "Mars Attacks!" heads exploding to indicate the sports media and average Hawks fan's reaction to spending a 1rst round pick on Bijan Robinson.
I don't hate this idea. I could never hate adding special players to the roster no matter the position or current personnel. However, you only do this if you have a clear and innovative offensive vision of how to use both RBs, because you'll spend the rest of the season working to prove everyone wrong (not that that has ever been a concern for Pete and John).
The possibilities are infinite.
Still having navigation problems. Can only scroll with the bar on the side.
Me too! Maybe sending emails to support@substack.com will get them to listen. Wish I could code!
I'm becoming more convinced stockpiling offensive weapons is the right course of action for this team. The only thing that concerns me with this approach to the draft is how other NFL teams are evaluating these players (or what their priorities are). I mean, that's the fun of the draft: it's not just who the best players are, but where finding the best value by predicting where other teams go. Finding the best value is tough; it requires navigating through the smokescreens other teams are putting up. They'll be lots of excitement and surprise come late April!
We already have 2 good running backs ( Walker and Penny) and 3 good tight ends ( Fant ,Dissly and Parkinson) What we need is DL and interior line help.
Doubling down on positions of strength doesn't help our run defense, our pass rush or our running game.
I think you need to rethink this idea!
Penny's a free agent, so there's no guarantee he's coming back. And you have to worry about Dissly a lot like Kenneth said, so those positions aren't as strong as you make them out to be.
A tight end in the 1st round when you already have 3 good ones and have much greater needs on the D and O lines! Really?
Yep. You are more than welcome to disagree with the premise. It’s one of many that will exist on this newsletter over the next 4 months.
And the Seahawks aren't likely to keep both Parkinson and Fant past 2023. Probably need to choose one. Plus the Jets lost Breece Hall and completely fell apart, so having two good running backs is important.
Usually that means a A and A- and I think Walker needs double digit carries to be effective. You're talking about A+ and A+. If we were the Niners, Eagles, or Chiefs I'd be all over Robinson. The only reason I wouldn't keep both Fant and Parkinson is that neither are great blockers.
I like this idea if...Carter and Anderson are off the board by #5. Bijan is really tempting if we trade away #5 for a later '23 FR pick in that scenario.
Niners are where they are because of a strong defense. Vikings because of their offense. Always different ways to get to the playoffs. Taking into account the tendencies or persona of the HC, Hawks should have a strong defense. Trading #5 to get Bijan when Carter or Anderson are gone may still allow that to happen. But I think going the Bijan route demands heavy investment into the IOL which now may or may not facilitate the needs of the defense.
Hawks need to revamp the entire defensive front seven and maybe only retain one or two incumbents as part of that. Starting to feel like this will take multiple years to accomplish between draft and FA. Going heavy into draft capital for offense is a bridge too far then.