NFL Draft: The odds of finding a franchise QB in top-15 are lower than you think
Seahawks fans should hope for the best, prepare for the worst if Seattle drafts a QB: Seaside Joe 1413
Pete Carroll noted in his press conference after Saturday’s wild card game that the loss is hitting the young guys harder than they expected because it didn’t feel real that the season could end so suddenly, especially because the Seahawks were ahead at halftime. Before I begin today’s post, I want to remind you that I write this newsletter everyday in part because I keep waking up thinking about what to write about the Seahawks. Every damn day. And I feel that suddenness as well, although I am excited and ready for the 2023 offseason.
So I want to thank all of you for partaking in Seattle’s 2022 campaign with me—from January 10, 2022 (the day after the Seahawks last game) to January 15, 2023—and for helping Seaside Joe continue to break ground in media that nobody else is even attempting to excavate. Not only has this newsletter gone out for the last 1,413 days in a row (3.87 years) but with bonus articles I’ve had the privilege to write over 1,500 of these posts to help prepare me for the next 1,413 days.
In addition to the 15,000 NFL articles I’ve written outside of Joe, I’m confident that we won’t break stride as we cover every single day of the Seattle Seahawks’ 2023 campaign, which I believe wholeheartedly is going to surpass the results of 2022. When Carroll notes the heartache of losing on Saturday, I’m reminded of the 2012 playoffs divisional round loss to the Atlanta Falcons.
Though that game was the opposite—the Seahawks played poorly for three quarters and then turned it on late—who couldn’t have been stunned that taking the lead with :31 seconds left wasn’t good enough? But Seattle came back in 2013 and played the best football in franchise history.
Many of the parrallels kind of stop there, the Seahawks defense was more complete in 2012, but I’m confident that Carroll knows how to use today to invent a better tomorrow. And whether it is yesterday, today, or tomorrow, I guarantee that Seaside Joe will be there, so because I am obsessed with this newsletter I am going to plead again to share it with Seahawks fans, to help us get over 2,000 subscribers before the start of next season, and to support us with a miniscule monthly subscription.
Last free agency, I know that Seaside Joe did a bang up job of predicting Pete Carroll’s moves and which players the Seahawks would let leave. We covered every inch of the draft and kept it extremely real, helping people avoid non-sense rumors about Desmond Ridder and Malik Willis. And Joe calmed the crowd that was worried about the DK Metcalf situation by using evidence-based arguments that Seattle would sign DK to a three-year, $72 million contract before the season—and that’s exactly what the Seahawks did.
Free agency. Draft. Contract extensions. 2023 expectations. I believe that you Seahawks fans have come to the right place and I’m grateful for your support. I woke up this morning thinking about the draft—again—so let’s start the 2023 offseason right there.
The actual legitimate real authorized and legal truth about drafting a quarterback in the top-15 picks
There are certain things that I will need to probably keep repeating as we keep growing because they are important tenets of doing what I do that are not clear to everybody. This is one of those tenets: Just because I write or address something that could happen, it does not mean that I am arguing that it should happen.
Sometimes I get messages that essentially say, “omg you’re a hypocrite, yesterday you said seahawks should draft a corterback and today you say seahawks should not draft a quarteredback. why u lie to me?”
Using “draft a quarterback” as a topic example, there are different ways a writer could address that scenario:
a) I might write why I believe the Seahawks will or won’t draft a QB
b) I might write why I personally would or wouldn’t draft a QB
c) I might present historical evidence of teams that drafted a QB, generally speaking
d) I could write a fictional letter to the USA president arguing why I believe a certain quarterback prospect is a spy from outer space sent to america to study brand marketing
The 2022 draft cycle was easy for me because I was 99% confident that the Seahawks woudn’t draft a quarterback and I was 100% confident that I wouldn’t have drafted a quarterback last year. The 2023 draft cycle is much, much harder to predict for the Seahawks and at times I might flip and flop as we continue to get more information between now and April 27th. Last year I mocked Charles Cross to Seattle immediately after the Russell Wilson trade…and then a week later I convinced myself and wrote that the Seahawks would definitely not draft Cross.
We might get a clearly defined answer to Seattle’s offseason QB questions prior to 4/27, like if the Seahawks execute a veteran acquisition or pay Geno Smith an unquestionable (but questionable) amount of money, but we probably won’t know until the first day of the 2023 draft. I will say that I’ve consistently ranked Bryce Young as my number one 2023 quarterback prospect for the last two years and I haven’t had any reason yet to change that opinion.
But I work harder than most to try and change my opinions, so there is no telling what will happen in the next three months.
Today’s post is scenario c: What recent history has suggested about teams that draft a quarterback, specifically in the top-15 picks. And I’m not attempting to convince you of anything or to sway you in a certain direction, so let’s go full stop on those comments too. I might eventually suggest that the Seahawks should draft a quarterback in the top-five. I might eventually decide that the Seahwaks should not draft a quarterback in the top-five. And if you want to push me for an answer right now, I would say that if I ran the Seahawks I would be exhausting all options in the trade market to try and increase future draft capital as “plan a”.
There can be as much risk in passing on a quarterback in the draft as there is to use your most precious resource on one in the top-five, top-10, or top-15. Ask all the teams that passed on Aaron Rodgers in 2005 (a good example because it was assumed that Rodgers could go as early as first overall), the teams that passed on Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and the teams that passed on Josh Allen in 2018.
In the AFC, Mahomes is the number one seed, Allen is number two, Joe Burrow (first overall in 2020) is number three, Trevor Lawrence (first overall in 2021) is number four, Justin Herbert (sixth overall in 2020) was number five, Lamar Jackson (first round pick in 2018) is number six kind of, and Tua Tagovailoa (fifth overall in 2020) is kind of number five. Although Jackson and Tua have missed significant action and won’t play. I’m getting to that.
The entire AFC playoff field consists of first round quarterbacks, six out of seven went in the top-10.