The predictable thing about predictions is that fans tend to overestimate their teams. For example, a 2015 study showed that “optimism bias” led to NFL fans predicting an average of 9.6 wins for their team compared to only 6.1 wins for teams they disliked.
The average for a 16-game season should come to 8.0 wins, meaning that fans predicted a statistically impossible number of wins.
Optimism bias is the same reason that projects often taken longer than their projections (the Sydney Opera House opened in 1973 and cost $102 million to build, way off from the projections of 1963 and $7 million) and newlyweds predict a 0% chance of divorce despite national statistics around 40-50%.
It is also why I assume (sorry for making an ass out of you) that Seahawks fans will predict that the Seahawks will win every game this season, so long as the Seahawks don’t start staying out until 5 in the morning every night getting drunk with their friends and doing god knows what.
And that’s fine!
I do wonder though, will tracking out predictions every week end up changing them? Will we become more conservative as a Seaside Joe community because (it’s safe to say) we will usually over-estimate Seattle’s chances of winning every game with a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard rusher, and a 120-yard receiver with double-digit scoring margins?
This is the way to find out! I’m optimistic, to say the least.
Who did it best?
Something I didn’t cover on Friday was answering the question: “Which Seasider had the best Week 1 prediction submission?”
The answer was shocking!
One person predicted that the Seahawks would win 14-10 (closest correct answer) AND that Sam Darnold would only throw for 95 yards (lowest of any submission). That Seasider also predicted that Jadarian Price would rush for 68 yards (he had 52), which was close but not the closest.
By Price is Right rules, the closest to Price was 51 yards and another person guessed 53.
One person was right on the money for JSN’s 122 yards
One person correctly predicted that the Patriots would rush for 109 yards
I’m awarding best prediction to the person who submitted 14-10 … whoever you are. Next week maybe I’ll have people enter identifying usernames?
Your Week 2 predictions - And my over/under
Seahawks score: 24 points
My prediction: Over
The Seahawks scored at least 24 points in 14 games last year, including a 44-point game against the Cardinals. This is a new Arizona team and Sam Darnold is out, but I just think Seattle is more complete than the Chargers team that the Cardinals beat in Week 1 and potentially score a special teams touchdown too.
Cardinals score: 13 points
My prediction: Over (slightly)
It’s not easy to hold a team to 13 points. If anyone can do it, it’s the Seahawks, but even last season’s Cardinals score 20 and 22 against Seattle’s number one defense.
Drew Lock passing yards: 215
My prediction: Over
This is a great guess by y’all because 215 is right around the number I’d expect. In Lock’s five starts with the Giants in 2024, he averaged 212 passing yards per game. However, that included one game over 300 yards and two games under 200 yards.
Arizona gave up 187 passing yards in Week 1, which is exactly as many as Lock had against the Patriots. Funny how that works. I’ll go just a tad over as Brian Fleury and Lock have now had 10 days to prepare for this. Here’s what he said:
“I think the biggest thing for us ... is taking care of the football,” Lock said Thursday as the Seahawks prepare to face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday at State Farm Stadium. “I think that’s the one thing that’s at a premium in this position, no matter what team you’re on, but especially this one. Getting the ball in our playmakers’ hands, letting our defense go be our defense, take care of the football, win the turnover differential and ... see where the scoreboard is at the end of it, and hopefully we come out with a win.
“I would say if there’s one thing I’m saying to myself, it’s take care of the football and get it into these guys’ hands.”
Jadarian Price rushing yards: 86
My prediction: Under
Yeah, I’m smashing the “under” on 86 yards. Price would need to break off a 35-40 yard run to get over 80 yards, I think. He’s certainly capable of that, but that’s also not easy to do.
If the Seahawks played 20 games and Price averaged 10 carries per game, he’d have 200 rushing attempts in his rookie season, including playoffs. That’s almost double his career-high and that’s ONLY 10 carries! That’s as many carries as he had last week. I expect a much more gradual ramping up to a 15-20 carry running back than what I’m seeing out there from others.
So around 8-12 carries, even at a fantastic 5.0 yards per carry, would come in round 50 rushing yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards: 109
My prediction: Over
If Lock is passing for 220ish yards, it’s not hard to see half of that production going to JSN. He was over this number seven times last year, but interestingly didn’t top the century mark against Arizona in either contest. Maybe he’ll be out for some revenge this weekend.
Seahawks turnovers: 0.84
Seahawks takeaways: 2.31
My prediction: 1 takeaway, 1 turnover
Seattle had more than one takeaway in half of their games last season and they finished sixth in the NFL in turnovers forced. They finished second to last in giving the ball away, something that Mike Macdonald has the team focused on improving this year. So a 1:1 ratio seems fair to me.
I’m going over on turnovers and under on takeaways.
Seahawks sack Jacoby Brissett: 3.84 times
My prediction: Over
This was the quarterback who lost two fumbles via Tyrice Knight which were returned for touchdowns by DeMarcus Lawrence last season. I like a 4-sack prediction this week, with two of those going to Derick Hall.
#2 “WR” - A.J. Barner (51%)
The big topic for Seaside Joe this week was 13 personnel. The Seahawks led the NFL in Week 1 with the most 12 personnel (2 TE, 1 RB) and yet the tight ends were quiet in the receiving game. Everyone except JSN was quiet. Tory Horton is back this week, will he assume a prominent role?
And “Rashid Shaheed is a $17 million receiver” watch is officially on: In his last seven games he has 0 yards, 8 yards, 2 yards, 0 yards, 51 yards (on one catch), 27 yards, and 4 yards.
Defensive POG - Leonard Williams (21.6%)
Leo beat Byron Murphy 21% to 19%, followed by Ernest Jones at 14% and Devon Witherspoon at 13.5%. Hall got 3% of the vote but as I said before, he’s my sleeper pick in this category if he trucks the Arizona offensive line.
Offensive POG - JSN (47.1%)
Will anyone be able to dethrone JSN as the weekly winner of this prediction? Frankly I don’t care if Smith-Njigba is the answer every week, but I’ll be curious to see when that changes and why. Price was second with 22% of the vote, followed by Lock at 17% and Barner at 8%.
Sleeper: Cooper Kupp.
For what it’s worth, Anthony Bradford has been ruled out and Christian Haynes will make his first career start.
ST POG - Michael Dickson (58.2%)
The rest of the votes were almost split even between Jason Myers and Shaheed. It wouldn’t change much if I did a write-in, but I could see someone like Brady Russell getting the honor.
I predict a Seahawks 20-0 record every year. I’m not optimistic. I just haven’t aligned my prediction with the correct year, just yet.
2026 would be nice!
I could definitely see how optimism bias can affect many fans. It’s a good thing I have the capability to step back and make an honest assessment. Go Hawks!
I’m fine with usernames. I think you could make them optional. I called myself out for failing last week’s projections. Allow people to enter “Anon” as a username if they want?