I hope to see the pass setup the run game from KK. Look for Barner to have a big game in the middle early with Charbonnet running hard in up the middle and JSM going deep. If Sam is 6 for 8 and 120 yards in the first quarter look out 49ers.
In the last six 49ers games, which they have all won, exclude the Bears, the average wins of the remaining opponents is 5 games. The Bears were the only team in that time span that won more than 8 games.
I like all the optimism and SSJ, your handling of the statistics always wakes me up but (there's always a but with me, yes?) the 49ers look way better than I thought they were. I've avoided watching them so have been willfully in the dark. My Monster in the closet has been the much reviled Rams... and then we beat them. why now do I see the 49ers as the insurmountable obstacle? What's wrong with me? May need the Maalox cocktail (plus a dram or two of Redbreast) on saturday.
News flash, deep passes take time to develop! It also helps to have a clean pocket and more than one deep threat. Two things we don't have with this Oline and our best Oline man LT Cross injured. I think they should surprise the 49ers and and blitz the hell out of Purdy.
On offense Id like to see more draws and screens since since opponents seem to try to take advantage of our weak Oline. Hello future Hall of Famer Anthony Bradford.
I know it's not great but it's all we have, Pro Football Focus rates Jones about the same as Cross. I don't think the O-line is missing too much with Cross out.
I still fear Shanahan more than Mcvay. Niners are a tough team to beat whereas the Rams seem more opportunistic. Even last year Macdonald looked like he was able to stick with Mcvay, we could have swept LA. SF was a much harder out, we barely got the one win and it felt very lucky to get it. SF losing all the players they lost and still just keep trucking kinda seems to lead one to think coaching (cohesiveness) and playcalling might be the main factor in success..(Provided a base level of talent).
I am guessing Seattle wins but I'm expecting a grind out game. 20-17.
'Circumstances may have merely dictated...'That seems like Seattle's calling card. Whatever is easiest to take advantage of...if the defense shows any weakness, we start going after it. If you have heavy personnel we call plays to take advantage, you go light we run. You defend deep we go short, defend 3rd and fifteen like a pass cause you know for sure we're gonna pass...boom Walker run. So the game kinda dictates our playcalling it seems sometimes. I just wish we'd incorporate the screen game from last year...it was so effective.
Will the circumstances be favorable for Darnold over Purdy?
Purdy has been excreting gold lately. That could make him overconfident against a great defense. Our run defense could put him behind the sticks. His superpower is that he is unflappable. A quick change of fortunes could make him flap.
Darnold doesn’t need to prove himself, like he did against the Rams. He doesn’t even need to win to go to the playoffs and have the best record (aside from tie breakers) in the conference. The upside is great, the downside isn’t terrible. That can be a formula for playing calm and loose, like he was in the first half of the season. He’s facing an opportunity, not avoiding disaster.
As has been the norm, if the defense plays to capacity and the offense avoids turnovers, the game is ours. Heck, even with turnovers, the games are mostly ours!
I’m with you, Joe: The Hawks can handle these guys.
“I think I (and others) have falsely assumed that Darnold’s deep ball shyness is directly related to losing to the Rams…”
I think that this has more to do with DCs catching up to the reality that JSN is the only big-play threat on the offense.* They can sell out to take that away and the Hawks can’t respond.
* Mike Dugar says that some of this is because of poor blocking from the receivers and TEs—that too many times the OL actually springs Walker to the outside only for Ken to find unblocked DBs waiting for him. Matt Hasselbeck has made a similar observation, if more diplomatically.
KW seems endlessly capable of finding a right turn (or a left turn) when he just needs to go straight. Charbonet, probably because he knows he can't outrun guys, follows his blocks. Against the Rams, Walker had one cutback all the way across the field and gained like 3 yards. Sigh.
As for the general thesis that Seattle's defense should bottle up the 49ers, I certainly hope that's true. Mccaffrey is just a pest and I really want to see Seattle ready for him catching passes. I also want to see Purdy pressured with four. When Chicago managed pressure, they actually forced some bad throws. Again, Purdy is more slippery than Darnold, though..... Well, a lot of QBs are.
If you presume Seattle can hold SF down somewhat on defense, then the question has to be what Seattle can invent on offense that they just haven't so far this season. I'm not convinced, like so many others are, that everything that's not working there is Sam's fault. There's a combination of offensive line breakdowns that I'm certain Saleh will try to exploit and non-creative play calling as well. If part of the argument for the slow starts is that Seattle has shown all their JSN cards, then they'd better unfurl a new deck. I DO think Charbs and Walker catching passes has to be exploited more if Shaheed has to sit. I DO think there has to be a fullback threat leaking out to catch passes.
Mabe Kubiak has been keeping a whole passel of plays off the sheet just for the big game. Well, this is the biggest game of the season so far. It's basically a two-wins-for-one, because you earn that bye—and it's one game closer to the SB than if you lose. It's time for something back-breaking. And to make all those SF talent leaks turn into a broken dam.
I hope to see the pass setup the run game from KK. Look for Barner to have a big game in the middle early with Charbonnet running hard in up the middle and JSM going deep. If Sam is 6 for 8 and 120 yards in the first quarter look out 49ers.
In the last six 49ers games, which they have all won, exclude the Bears, the average wins of the remaining opponents is 5 games. The Bears were the only team in that time span that won more than 8 games.
Consider me comforted, SSJ. Done without bulsht or roses, either. Thanx mucho. My sole preseason gamble awaits this game... Hawks win their Division.
I like all the optimism and SSJ, your handling of the statistics always wakes me up but (there's always a but with me, yes?) the 49ers look way better than I thought they were. I've avoided watching them so have been willfully in the dark. My Monster in the closet has been the much reviled Rams... and then we beat them. why now do I see the 49ers as the insurmountable obstacle? What's wrong with me? May need the Maalox cocktail (plus a dram or two of Redbreast) on saturday.
GO (farther) HAWKS!
Add more beer...
News flash, deep passes take time to develop! It also helps to have a clean pocket and more than one deep threat. Two things we don't have with this Oline and our best Oline man LT Cross injured. I think they should surprise the 49ers and and blitz the hell out of Purdy.
On offense Id like to see more draws and screens since since opponents seem to try to take advantage of our weak Oline. Hello future Hall of Famer Anthony Bradford.
I know it's not great but it's all we have, Pro Football Focus rates Jones about the same as Cross. I don't think the O-line is missing too much with Cross out.
I still fear Shanahan more than Mcvay. Niners are a tough team to beat whereas the Rams seem more opportunistic. Even last year Macdonald looked like he was able to stick with Mcvay, we could have swept LA. SF was a much harder out, we barely got the one win and it felt very lucky to get it. SF losing all the players they lost and still just keep trucking kinda seems to lead one to think coaching (cohesiveness) and playcalling might be the main factor in success..(Provided a base level of talent).
I am guessing Seattle wins but I'm expecting a grind out game. 20-17.
'Circumstances may have merely dictated...'That seems like Seattle's calling card. Whatever is easiest to take advantage of...if the defense shows any weakness, we start going after it. If you have heavy personnel we call plays to take advantage, you go light we run. You defend deep we go short, defend 3rd and fifteen like a pass cause you know for sure we're gonna pass...boom Walker run. So the game kinda dictates our playcalling it seems sometimes. I just wish we'd incorporate the screen game from last year...it was so effective.
I feel very confident we will win this Saturday.
In my estimation, Kyle Shanahan deserves the COTY award due to what the Niners have had to overcome this year while still having an excellent season:
- They have been without their #1 receiver due to Aiyuk's drama.
- Their starting QB was injured for roughly of their games this year.
- They have been without their 2 star defensive players in Bosa and Warner.
- They have incurred significant injuries to other key players.
This is not the same team the Hawks played in week 1 and expect their Cinderella story will end without the prince fitting the shoe.
Hoping they can run the ball. 5 yards and a cloud of crumb rubber! Oh wait, they are playing on grass. Damn I wanted to use that line.
I hear the 12s’ Choir singing “we shall overcome”.
May the 12s be with you and Go Seahawks!
It is time SF wakes up to find themselves in deep DooDoo.
Will the circumstances be favorable for Darnold over Purdy?
Purdy has been excreting gold lately. That could make him overconfident against a great defense. Our run defense could put him behind the sticks. His superpower is that he is unflappable. A quick change of fortunes could make him flap.
Darnold doesn’t need to prove himself, like he did against the Rams. He doesn’t even need to win to go to the playoffs and have the best record (aside from tie breakers) in the conference. The upside is great, the downside isn’t terrible. That can be a formula for playing calm and loose, like he was in the first half of the season. He’s facing an opportunity, not avoiding disaster.
As has been the norm, if the defense plays to capacity and the offense avoids turnovers, the game is ours. Heck, even with turnovers, the games are mostly ours!
Purdy's Claim is he lives for PRESSURE. Gargles with it. Gotta admire the guy. Let's hope he believes the Vegas odds makers.
Semi-on-topic, but I've begun referring to this year's Seahawks D as "MOB Violence" - it seems fitting (your mileage may vary).
I’m with you, Joe: The Hawks can handle these guys.
“I think I (and others) have falsely assumed that Darnold’s deep ball shyness is directly related to losing to the Rams…”
I think that this has more to do with DCs catching up to the reality that JSN is the only big-play threat on the offense.* They can sell out to take that away and the Hawks can’t respond.
* Mike Dugar says that some of this is because of poor blocking from the receivers and TEs—that too many times the OL actually springs Walker to the outside only for Ken to find unblocked DBs waiting for him. Matt Hasselbeck has made a similar observation, if more diplomatically.
KW seems endlessly capable of finding a right turn (or a left turn) when he just needs to go straight. Charbonet, probably because he knows he can't outrun guys, follows his blocks. Against the Rams, Walker had one cutback all the way across the field and gained like 3 yards. Sigh.
As for the general thesis that Seattle's defense should bottle up the 49ers, I certainly hope that's true. Mccaffrey is just a pest and I really want to see Seattle ready for him catching passes. I also want to see Purdy pressured with four. When Chicago managed pressure, they actually forced some bad throws. Again, Purdy is more slippery than Darnold, though..... Well, a lot of QBs are.
If you presume Seattle can hold SF down somewhat on defense, then the question has to be what Seattle can invent on offense that they just haven't so far this season. I'm not convinced, like so many others are, that everything that's not working there is Sam's fault. There's a combination of offensive line breakdowns that I'm certain Saleh will try to exploit and non-creative play calling as well. If part of the argument for the slow starts is that Seattle has shown all their JSN cards, then they'd better unfurl a new deck. I DO think Charbs and Walker catching passes has to be exploited more if Shaheed has to sit. I DO think there has to be a fullback threat leaking out to catch passes.
Mabe Kubiak has been keeping a whole passel of plays off the sheet just for the big game. Well, this is the biggest game of the season so far. It's basically a two-wins-for-one, because you earn that bye—and it's one game closer to the SB than if you lose. It's time for something back-breaking. And to make all those SF talent leaks turn into a broken dam.
My take is that there’s no right turn to be had.