Seahawks-49ers scheduled for Saturday
What's on the line for Seahawks-49ers and what does it mean for Seattle's chances at the 1-seed?
The Seahawks will face the 49ers in a “winner-take-1” game in Week 18 and the NFL has scheduled the matchup for Saturday at 5 PM PT on ABC/ESPN.
If the Seahawks win or tie, they will earn the 1 seed, a bye week in the wild card round, and the chance to stay in Seattle for the entirety of their stay in the NFC playoffs.
If the Seahawks lose, they will be the 5-seed if the Rams lose either of their next two games (Falcons on MNF, Cardinals next Sunday) or the 6-seed if the Rams win out.
Where the 5-seed goes
As a 5-seed, the Seahawks would be on the road to face the winner of the NFC South. That game will be decided on Saturday afternoon; however, if the Falcons win out (yes, the eliminated Falcons), then the Panthers will win the NFC South and Week 18 won’t even matter. Then the Seahawks will be right back in Carolina in two weeks IF they lose in Week 18.
But if the Falcons don’t win out (and they probably won’t beat the Rams) then the NFC South winner comes down to Saturday’s Bucs-Panthers game and the 5-seed could be headed to Tampa Bay. The Bucs have lost seven of their last eight games and could still HOST a playoff game.
Where the 6-seed goes
In the worst case scenario, Seattle could lose in Week 18 and the Rams could win out, dropping the Seahawks all the way to 6. That would send the Seahawks on the road in the wild card round, either to the Eagles or the Bears; if Chicago beats the Lions in Week 18, then they will get the 2-seed and the 6-seed will go to Philadelphia.
Seahawks probabilities
The 49ers opened as 4.5-point favorites. San Francisco is at home and the offense has seemed rather unstoppable recently, although the Seahawks have had an historic day against a couple of teams in the past month and could have the best defense in the NFL.
We know where we’re leaning but it’s not hard to imagine the public national opinion shifting towards the 49ers favor this week. Oh well. The 49ers defense didn’t look good at all against the Bears. (Oh yeah, the 49ers beat the Bears 42-38. I should have mentioned that earlier.)
If the Seahawks beat the 49ers, then the playoff standings look something like this:
Seahawks (bye)
Bears
Eagles
Panthers or Bucs
Rams
49ers
Packers
That gives you Packers at Bears, 49ers at Eagles, and Rams at NFC South winner.
If the 49ers beat the Seahawks, then the playoff standings probably look like this:
49ers (bye)
Bears
Eagles
Panthers or Bucs
Rams
Seahawks
Packers
The Rams will be heavily favored to win their last two games, meaning that if they win out that L.A. will have a better divisional record than the Seahawks and earn the 5-seed if Seattle doesn’t beat San Francisco.
That means the matchups are Packers at Bears, Seahawks at Eagles, and Rams at NFC South winner.
If you want the Seahawks to at least be guaranteed the 5-seed, then root for the Falcons to beat the Rams on Monday Night Football (obviously).
Otherwise, it’s unlikely that Seattle would get the 5 because the Cardinals aren’t showing up at all. It’s possible, however, that Sean McVay will rest his starters next week because L.A. can’t win the NFC West.
Can the Cardinals even beat the Rams backups though?
The mission is simple:
Beat the 49ers, earn the 1 seed.
Anything else and the Seahawks are probably on the road for the entirety of the playoffs.
The game is Saturday night. Subscribe to Seaside Joe (and tell other fans!) and don’t miss any updates:
The forty whiners offense is a juggernaut. I’m sure the Hawks defense can do better than the Bears, but we will need 4 quarters of quality play from Sam Darnold and the offense. Shaheed will be a big loss. The Saturday game will make it more likely he won’t clear protocol in one fewer days. Horton does not sound promising for return this week. Kupp is going to need to have one big swan song for the Gipper.(Does anyone remember, “Win one for the Gipper?”) Only 4 targets for 88 vs the Panthers. (Barner) He caught three. I’d like to see Kubiak up the ante on Barner’s targets to 8 for next week.
A thought I had watching the Panthers game replay on NFL+. K9 is a more explosive runner, but it’s looked to me all year that Charbs is the preferred pass blocking RB and I wonder if one reason the Hawks run so much on 1st down with K9 on the field is his liability as a pass blocker. Playing Charbs on 1st down more frequently might make the pass game more effective with the added backfield protection. I think we’ll see more Charbs on 1st downs on Saturday. After all, it’s not like he isn’t an effective runner, he’s just not as explosive. But I’ll take 4 yards on 1st down.
I think if we lose, it will be due to turnovers. Can we keep it to one turnover, please! If we have three, I can’t see it coming out in our favor vs the SF offense. They will take advantage of them. I know Sam can play a more clean game. Let’s go do this! Go Hawks!
SF beat themselves up tonight, marginalizing more of their starters. Upton Stout looks to be out after exiting tonight's game (concussion?). Williams at LT looks like he's also sitting out from a hamstring. I watched McCaffrey getting special attention on the sidelines with a back issue, which was a big problem after he wore himself out getting to their last Super Bowl appearance. Maybe Kittle makes it back next week with an ankle issue? How valuable will the first round Bye be to them? Playing us at 80% next week can only diminish their ability to be effective in the Playoffs. Might they decide to rest crucial players, knowing the first round should be fairly easy victories using bench players?