How the Seahawks can 'Nail' free agency
Plus how can Sam Darnold avoid pressure to beat the 49ers?
The Seahawks signed tackle Amari Kight to the 53-man roster this week as both Charles Cross and Josh Jones did not practice on Wednesday. A former Alabama recruit who later transferred to UCF and spent two seasons there starting the majority (but not all) of their games since 2023.
Kight went undrafted in 2025 and is a rookie but spent six years in college so he’s not exactly young for a first-year player. Seattle may not need Kight on Saturday but it’s possible that they will start an undrafted rookie at left tackle with two career offensive snaps in their biggest game of the year. Best case scenario is probably that Kight is the backup to someone who isn’t 100%.
On the bright side, Rashid Shaheed is out of the concussion protocol and tracking to play against the 49ers without limitations.
Last year, I addressed part I of your Super Joes questions about the Seahawks. Finally after some time has passed, I’ll get to part II. There will also be a part III because the Super Joes Q&A is rapidly expanding! Join!
Grant: Looking at the wide receiver free agent market this offseason, who should we consider? The biggest name is George Pickens. Would the Cowboys pay both him and Lamb after failing to reach the playoffs? Some other interesting names to me are Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, and our own Rashid Shaheed. Seems like slim pickin's after Pickens.
On pending free agents like George Pickens, a general rule of thumb is that if you think his availability is too good to be true, it probably is. NFL teams have no reason to lose players over money, so that means that they’re letting them go because of something else: Maybe they don’t think they’re good enough at football. Maybe they’re worried about injuries or age. Maybe they’re worried about off-field or attitude issues.
The Cowboys will let a 25-year-old stud receiver leave in free agency (92/1,420/9) because why? They’re over the cap? That’s irrelevant. They have the cap moves available to afford Pickens. So if a second team moves on from Pickens is as many years, that decision has to be accounted.
The most important free agency red flag is that you are a free agent.
Remember a couple of years ago when the Dolphins let Christian Wilkins hit free agency and everyone was so confused as to why they would do that? How interesting that his $110 million contract with the Raiders was such a disaster. Whatever lists are out there right now about the top free agents in 2026, we should expect the majority of the attractive names to be re-signed or extended. It happens every year.
Doesn’t mean that free agents are never good. The Seahawks found their starting quarterback in free agency (which is rare). Sam Darnold’s availability was also easily explainable and the issues are still apparent now. Usually the best free agent pickups are VALUE SIGNINGS not ranked in the top-50, which would be the case with Uchenna Nwosu and DeMarcus Lawrence.
And even those examples, it doesn’t change the fact that Nwosu has missed so many games and Lawrence is 33.
Anyways, not that relevant to your actual question but I think the “slim pickin’s” is to be expected, which is why the real stars move teams via trade.
Once the Seahawks release Cooper Kupp (free agent signing), or he takes a massive pay cut because he just wants to keep playing in Seattle, the Seahawks could decide for a short-term fix like another older player or a long-term option if they really like somebody. John Schneider should have some flexibility on receiver type because JSN is so flexible.
Wan’Dale Robinson is 25 and the Giants might part ways because they’ll have a new head coach (and possibly a new GM).
Alec Pierce is an interesting case because the Colts have had so many QB issues during his career, but he’s still been a consistent 50% catch guy with all of them. That’s really low.
Out of 141 players with at least 160 targets in the last four seasons, Pierce is 138th (52.9%) in catch rate (Marquez Valdes-Scantling is 141st)
If you spot him +10% because of QB play, then Pierce goes up to 100th/141.
Someone like Pierce could end up being a great signing but if that would be the case then the odds of him being re-signed by the Colts are high.
I’ll give you another name to consider: Jalen Nailor.
A “VALUE SIGNING” like Nailor, who played with Sam Darnold in 2024, could be a better addition for the Seahawks than a receiver asking for “DK Metcalf money” like Pickens ($33m/year) or “Calvin Ridley money” ($23m/year) like Pierce.
Nailor could be “Jauan Jennings money” ($6m/year) and give a team a dependable number three receiver. So if the Seahawks do re-sign Shaheed and Tory Horton is healthier, Seattle has a very good 1-2-3-4 at receiver.
Nailor, a sixth round pick in 2022 out of Michigan State (teammates with Kenneth Walker), has also been cursed with inconceivably bad QB play this season. He’s shown some flashes in the last two years of being a good WR3. Darnold’s throws to Nailor last season:
28/42, 414 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT
So I think in terms of bang-for-buck and still leaving the door open for a player like Horton to become a star if he’s healthy, Jalen Nailor would be the name I’d keep your eyes on in free agency. He’s not going to be a franchise savior or anything, but he could be twice as valuable as a receiver who makes three times as much.
Glassmonkey: How best will Seattle neutralize McCaffrey and make the battle with the 9ers look lopsided?
Others will call me crazy but I’ll triple-down on Seaside Joe wrote on Wednesday. This is a terrible matchup for Christian McCaffrey. If he gets 100 rushing yards I’ll be flabbergasted, but if that does happen than I’d bet he got over 50% of his yardage on one play where Seattle’s defense has an inconceivable miscommunication.
I worry very little about McCaffrey and Brock Purdy. I worry more about George Kittle.
The wake-up call for San Francisco’s offense is in two days. On PFT, Chris Simms sees it my way and Mike Florio doesn’t, which I think is the best endorsement for a Seahawks-win that I can think of!
Glassmonkey: Will we see 'record pace' JSN again this game? Will we need to if Shaheed is out?
Only three receivers have hit 100 yards against the 49ers this season, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 1 (124). But this week it was rookie Luther Burden (138 yards) breaking out against San Francisco.
Shaheed is tracking to play on Saturday. I still think we have to prepare ourselves for questions about how the Seahawks would win without Shaheed producing as an offensive player because…Shaheed has only had two games with Seattle where he has produced anything on offense and the Seahawks are still winning with or without him.
If Shaheed’s presence merely opens up the field for more opportunities by JSN, that works too. I do expect over 7 catches and over 100 yards by JSN. In fact, I think it’s possible that he could hit 100 yards in the first half.
Grant: The Rams will know the outcome of the Seahawks vs 49ers going into their game. Assuming the Seahawks win, should the Rams play their starters and try to earn the #5 spot? I would think the opportunity to play against Tampa/Carolina instead of the Eagles/Bears might be worth it.
I’ll give you an even better reason to play for the 5-seed:
The Rams/49ers* are better than every division winner
The Rams/49ers* are both presumed to win as wild cards
If the Rams/49ers* both win as wild cards, then the 5 seed avoids the Seahawks* in the divisional round
The 6 seed would play Seattle*, unless the Packers also beat the 2 seed
*If the 49ers win on Saturday, all the same rules apply if the wild cards are Rams and Seahawks
There’s a good chance that the 5-seed doesn’t play the 1-seed in round 2 because I think every NFC wild card team could win their first matchup.
I’d much rather face the Bears or Eagles in round 2 than the number one seed coming off of two weeks rest.
AND if all three wild card teams win, that means that the 5-seed HOSTS the 7-seed in a divisional round game. How about that?
One other aspect to L.A. avoiding a loss to the Cardinals in Week 18 is that it’s merely just too embarrassing. What if the Rams lose to the Cardinals and then lose the wild card round? Any memories of them being called “the best team in the NFL” would be long forgotten. Why even bring back Matthew Stafford at that point? The Rams have to avoid an embarrassment before the playoffs begin and I’ll even say they have to whomp the Cardinals on Sunday.
On Whit and Fitz, they both picked the 49ers to win. However, Andrew Whitworth made an interesting point because he says that the game means more to the Seahawks given that Seattle is such a difficult place to play on the road, whereas Santa Clara isn’t much of a homefield advantage for the Niners. “I think that’s actually one of the easiest places to go play.” Interesting coming from someone who was on the Rams for five years.
Scott M: Re roster building: how much free cash do you anticipate Seattle having after resigning priority FAs and such? How many roster spots do you think might be open or worthy of bringing in competition? How many splash signings might we see and how many starters would/should we expect to target in the draft? Then, knowing what we know about age and career trajectory all while operating under the assumption we are actively in a Super Bowl window...what's our FA and draft strategy?
If you’re specifically asking about cash, that’s difficult for me to assess because I don’t know what the Seahawks have in their budget for signing bonuses and cash flow to players in 2026. Salary cap wise, there’s room.
Now (NFL cap is only a projection):
So we don’t know for sure that the team salary cap will be $312 million, but let’s just say that it is. Releasing Kupp gets the team to just under $80 million.
Seattle’s top-5 unrestricted free agents: Riq Woolen, Coby Bryant, Kenneth Walker, Boye Mafe, and Josh Jobe.
I don’t anticipate the Seahawks keeping all of those players, but even if they did it’s not going to come close to $80 million in 2026 cap space.
Over the years I have learned that new cap hits add up way faster than I expect them to, so in the off chance that something like that happens Seattle can still save even more space by restructuring contracts of expensive players who they know they want to keep for at least two more years (Sam Darnold’s restructure alone saves almost $20 million in 2026 cap space) or by assessing how badly they want to keep Nwosu ($11.5m savings).
Picking up the 5th-year options for Devon Witherspoon and JSN next year, Seattle also won’t be going to the negotiating table with either of those players in 2026. It would take one of those players forcing the issue but the Seahawks don’t negotiate extensions until the player is in a contract year and those two would be under contract through 2027.
The most expensive potential move for the Seahawks internally would be an extension for Charles Cross, although some fans have questioned if the left tackle is worth it or if the team should just keep Josh Jones (also a 2026 FA, but not expensive) and weather the storm.
All that being said, the Seahawks could actually bring back virtually the entire team in 2026 and bet on continuity and familiarity with system as the calling cards to a Super Bowl championship.
Their roster “holes” would be competition on the offensive line, defensive depth, and probably another receiver. The only notable players I have a really hard time seeing coming back are Kupp and Mafe. But even then, those players could go with a cheap deal to stay in Seattle if they really feel like this is the best team for them next year.
I kind of don’t see how Mafe could believe that. He’s having such a bad year in terms of playing time and production, a change of scenery seems best suited for Mafe.
Kupp, I could see him asking to stay. If he wants to keep playing football, why not do that for a good team that’s also his home town team? His salary is $13 million. He may need to give back $10 million and turn it into incentives.
So ultimately the needs do come down to how much the Seahawks want to prioritize iffy free agents like Walker, Bryant, Woolen, and Jobe (I say “iffy” only because re-signing can’t be guaranteed) and aside from that I think a vet interior lineman, a receiver, an edge, and a beefy defensive lineman (Jarran Reed’s age) should be prioritized.
In the draft, edge or receiver usually get priority in the first round, but it could be someone entirely different.
Seahawks seem to be setup nicely in 2026.
Defjames: Not really a question, but would love your insight into Darnolds pocket awareness, or lack thereof. I made a comment in today’s newsletter on this topic.
I’ll post some screenshots I found at Next Gen Stats:
Here’s something I found:
In the first 12 games, Darnold scrambled five times.
In the last 4 games, Darnold has scrambled nine times.
What do you think that’s about?
Here’s another one:
In the first 10 games, Darnold’s receivers dropped 3 passes
In the last six games, Darnold’s receivers have dropped 12 passes!
Batted passes was another thing I checked and it’s actually been fairly evenly distributed. His worst BP game by far was against the Vikings and maybe those defensive players just know him too well.
Here’s a third one:
Darnold was pressured 18.6% of the time in the first nine games
Darnold is pressured 24% of the time in the last seven games
Is the offensive line performing worse recently? There is some contextual explanation for that, if true. Is the pressure plan (combined effort of Darnold, Kubiak, and the center) failing? Is Darnold merging into pressure instead of away from it?
We all know that he’s not the same nimble pocket dancer as a QB like Mahomes or Caleb or even Purdy. I didn’t even realize that he’s rushing for less than half as many attempts and yards as he is accustomed to. Could be that Kubiak really wants him to focus on being a pure pocket passer. If that’s true, it could be that he’s a little more confused as to what to do when the pocket collapses, if Kubiak has told him to harness his urge to scramble.
His fumbles (10) are up this season (8 last season) despite significantly fewer attempts, fewer dropbacks, and fewer sacks than 2024.
Bad luck? Maybe. I also think that Darnold is one of the best QBs in the league in throwing across his body when he’s moving to his left. It’s gotten him into trouble at times, but I’m pretty confident when he’s moving to his left.
“Pocket awareness” can have different meanings in different settings, so I’m not sure if I’m exactly answering your request, but I haven’t had issues with Darnold when he’s given time to throw. Still leading the NFL in Y/A (9.2) from a clean pocket and top-10 passer when he’s not under pressure. Compare that to 22nd in passer rating when under pressure.
Although Darnold has thrown 8 interceptions from a clean pocket, Brock Purdy has actually thrown more INTs per pass from a clean pocket.
So I’d like to see Darnold get more clean pockets because for sure he’s not the type to avoid one or two would-be sackers and he’s definitely not always aware when a guy is about to thwap his arm or grab him from behind. That’s indisputable based on this season’s body of work and definitely worked against him versus the 49ers.