The stats are interesting but will be much more meaningful after another 3 games. If we still have a top 5 D after we have played 6 games (which will include the Niners) whoo boy that will be something! Huge test this week vs the Lions.
It may be worth noting that there have been a fair number of NFL teams that have made it into the postseason, including Super Bowl winners, without having any single player statistically in the top 10 in either offensive or defensive categories.
Fantastic SSJ, think this puts a much more specific light on exactly where Seattle is. There are so many advanced analytics sites that I wouldn’t even be sure which ones to read/believe, appreciate very much you sharing the ones you’ve chosen. Great article!!
Any stat that is based on any sort of expectation, e.g. EPA, has some type of opinion, assumption, or average at it's core. Usually, through some subjective experience, a statistician (or layperson) decides it is a good metric to predict success or is at least positively correlated with success.... again, someone decided. I always take these stats with a shaker full of salt, if taking them at all. My 1st reaction to Expected "Anything" is "whose expectations and why?".
I enjoyed the overall analysis by SJ, I am just particularly skeptical about those stats that are based on expectations. Another one is catchable balls as a descriptor of a QBs accuracy.
I will now abruptly end my old man rant, and you all may kindly get off my lawn.
Witherspoon and Woolen have a chance to be a latter day version of Mike Haynes (HOF 1997) and Lester Hayes* — Raiders CBs who were so good in coverage that even good QBs avoided targeting them.
* Why Hayes is not in the HOF is a mystery worthy of Arthur Conan Doyle.
I think SSJ is dead on when he speculates that Grubb doesn't want Geno's back to the defense right now. Too much early pressure. If we ever get the interior o-line in better shape, play action will show up more I'd guess.
Right. It could just be a strategy based on the teams/defenses we've played so far, also. Grubb may decided that play action is more effective against some opponents than others and game-plan differently. I'd imagine play action is more effective against a team that likes to drop their LBs into coverage, or play zone concepts, than against a team that likes to send them on blitzes, for example. More games = more data.
No. The RPO is designed so the QB can read the DE or edge and see if they bite hard on the handoff. If they do, the QB can run or throw a quick pass. If they don’t bite, he can complete the handoff. Play action is always a predetermined pass with a ball fake to hold the defence for a split second.
Im not explaining it very well, but hopefully that helps.
The stats are interesting but will be much more meaningful after another 3 games. If we still have a top 5 D after we have played 6 games (which will include the Niners) whoo boy that will be something! Huge test this week vs the Lions.
Yes sir. The Lions will be a legit test, and one that I'm greatly looking forward to.
It may be worth noting that there have been a fair number of NFL teams that have made it into the postseason, including Super Bowl winners, without having any single player statistically in the top 10 in either offensive or defensive categories.
Fantastic SSJ, think this puts a much more specific light on exactly where Seattle is. There are so many advanced analytics sites that I wouldn’t even be sure which ones to read/believe, appreciate very much you sharing the ones you’ve chosen. Great article!!
Any stat that is based on any sort of expectation, e.g. EPA, has some type of opinion, assumption, or average at it's core. Usually, through some subjective experience, a statistician (or layperson) decides it is a good metric to predict success or is at least positively correlated with success.... again, someone decided. I always take these stats with a shaker full of salt, if taking them at all. My 1st reaction to Expected "Anything" is "whose expectations and why?".
I enjoyed the overall analysis by SJ, I am just particularly skeptical about those stats that are based on expectations. Another one is catchable balls as a descriptor of a QBs accuracy.
I will now abruptly end my old man rant, and you all may kindly get off my lawn.
Witherspoon and Woolen have a chance to be a latter day version of Mike Haynes (HOF 1997) and Lester Hayes* — Raiders CBs who were so good in coverage that even good QBs avoided targeting them.
* Why Hayes is not in the HOF is a mystery worthy of Arthur Conan Doyle.
Low rate of play action cold be tactical, not revealing our playbook in games against weak teams.
Maybe we’ll see more Monday v Lions, or save ‘Hawks’ best looks and ballsy-est calls for NFC West rivals.
I think SSJ is dead on when he speculates that Grubb doesn't want Geno's back to the defense right now. Too much early pressure. If we ever get the interior o-line in better shape, play action will show up more I'd guess.
Right. It could just be a strategy based on the teams/defenses we've played so far, also. Grubb may decided that play action is more effective against some opponents than others and game-plan differently. I'd imagine play action is more effective against a team that likes to drop their LBs into coverage, or play zone concepts, than against a team that likes to send them on blitzes, for example. More games = more data.
Does RPO count as play action?
No. The RPO is designed so the QB can read the DE or edge and see if they bite hard on the handoff. If they do, the QB can run or throw a quick pass. If they don’t bite, he can complete the handoff. Play action is always a predetermined pass with a ball fake to hold the defence for a split second.
Im not explaining it very well, but hopefully that helps.
This was one of my favorite news letters. Love all of the stats! Thank you for this!
I feel like Jerome Bettis would eat Ron Dayne, and not the other way around.
Regardless, there'd be a whole lotta eatin' goin' on! That line was a highlight, for sure!
Nice stats, but I’d rather just trust my own eyes.
This week I saw Riq in a run fit at the line of scrimmage. :)