Reports on some Day 3 picks from various podcasts:
* Jim Nagy agrees that Derrick Hall deserved a first-round grade. Says the Hawks were all over him at the Senior Bowl
* Widespread agreement that Kenny McIntosh in the 7th round is a bargain. Interestingly, Nagy makes the argument that speed is overrated for RBs—that the leading rushers are rarely the fastest guys
* Paul Moyer says that ten rookies could make the team
* Again from Nagy, Oluwatami could have been drafted higher and is the center the Hawks had their eye on all along. Nagy says Olu is a week one starter
* Nagy describes Morris as a “projection” with a good upside. Moyer says that Morris could handle gaining another 20 pounds
* Ray Roberts agrees with Michael Bumpus that this year’s OL could be the best in a decade. Big Ray is an Olu fan as well, and highlights the sheer number of snaps he had as a college center. He’s glad the Hawks finally stopped drafting “versatile” O-lineman and have stopped trying to convert defensive lineman into offensive lineman
I projected higher than 8.5 wins because why not? It’s May. The talent has the makings of one of the best offenses in a weak conference. The defense pretty much has to be improved. Right?
I have been commenting now for years that we need the new players with energy, determination, and strong healthy bodies, as well as the veterans who have seen it all before; last year encouraged me and this year I see increased hope and success for the Hawks
In the 25 years since their last SB win—I.e., the last hurrah of the Jimmy Johnson roster—the Cowboys are 232-199. That’s 9-8 year in and year out. They are 5-11 in the post-season. They’ve never won two playoff games in the same year and haven’t once advanced to the conference finals. And JJ is in the HOF because of all the money he’s raked in.
LOL! The Cowboys are a monument to symmetry. Dallas actually had three straight years of 8-8 (2011-2013), which were followed by 12-4 and 4-12. Record by coach since the last SB:
Switzer 16-16
Gailey 18-14
Campo 15-33
Parcells 24-24
Phillips 34-22
Garrett 85-67
McCarthy 30-20
Gailey is the only one who got another head coaching job (Buffalo 2010-2012, 16-32).
Nothing to do with todays article! Back in the sixties in Kenya, my old man used to rally race and one of the events was the 444, that being the distance. His weapon of choice was a 2 stroke Saab 96. Ok bye.
I completely discount the optimism one routinely sees from fans in the preseason. Fanatics are, almost by definition, forever optimistic. That's a good thing for the NFL because if people grokked what a long shot their team was to win the Superbowl, it would be much harder to fill stadiums. 31 out of 32 teams come up short every year. Much longer odds than when there were six NFL teams.
We won't know how good the Seahawks are until the season begins. It's a good bet that teams like the Chiefs will be strong and teams like the Rams weak, but there are always surprises. Honestly, if the Hawks won 4 games next season, it wouldn't bum me out or leave me feeling any less connected. I'd look forward to our chance to pick early in what promises to be a strong draft. Win or lose, one can always find interesting things to notice.
That was more my thoughts about last year. Your observations of optimists and fans is correct, but I'm wondering why you reject optimism? There are certainly reasons to be optimist. Even being entirely objective for a moment, there are still plenty of reasons to be very hopeful, another word for optimistic. Sheer reason and logic suggest we will be a better team this year than last. With Al Woods gone, there is not a single player that is aging out. Wagner's got at least this year in him, and the rest are quite young and should improve year over year. We added significant pieces on both sides of the ball. The competition within the NFCW has only gotten easier.
I don't disagree, Stephen. If I were an odds maker, I'd say Seattle 2023 is 65-75% likely to be better than Seattle 2022. But that leaves the other 25-35%. I'm too old to get myself worked up counting baby chickens; however, years of watching sports teams has taught me that, winning or losing, I can always find something of value to appreciate. In down years, I typically love most of all watching the development of young players. With the internet, I enjoy talking to and connecting with other fans. Years ago, when tickets were reasonably priced, I enjoyed meeting up with folks at the games. Now, maybe at a sports bar, though most of the time these days I'm sharing the game at home with my wife and son. If there's a live blog to follow, that's ideal. I hope Kenneth considers creating one here as I think this community is almost ideal for it.
I like seeing a UDFA or late round pick becoming a star like Dog Baldwin, Steve Largent, Jim Zorn etal.
One of my fondest Hawk memories is Joe Namath telling the TV audience " If Steve Largent is so slow, how come he's always behind all those fast guys ?"
I dunno, division rivalry games almost never turn out the way one would expect they should. The Seahawks probably *should* beat the Rams by 2 TDs that first game but could McVay find a way to make it closer? At 5.5 points I would (if I were betting but I'm not) take the over, and straight-up I am as positive as I can be the Seahawks will win, but could it be by 3 points? Yeah, it could.
And the Seahawks could still go on from there and post up a 13-4 season.
Between 2005-2014, the Seahawks beat the Rams 17 out of 20 times, with 10 of those being by at least 10 points. I get the hesitancy to feel confident, but recency bias can come into play when ignoring that many times in history has one division team been dominant over another or that bad/terrible teams are bad/terrible most of the time. I just think the Rams are terrible, same as the Cardinals, and I suspect there's confidence going against the Cardinals too.
I don't disagree with you, and I also think that it's alright if someone feels that a good team should beat a bad team regardless of being in the same division.
I'm probably more hesitant because it's Week 1 than I would be because it's the Rams. Their defense is one of the least experienced in NFL history, if not the most inexperienced, and there isn't a single player expected to be good other than 32-year-old Aaron Donald.
Between 2012 and 2015 there were games that, on paper, the Rams had no business being in but were closer than they should have been (and a couple of losses as well)
It's funny though that I think of the Niners in the reverse: the Seahawks have been similarly dominant vs the Niners for the most part and swept them in 2021 when the Seahawks were not otherwise very good. The Niners swept the Seahawks last year, then beat them again in the playoffs, yet I think the odds of a split this year are very good for the Seahawks. It may be completely irrational, but there I do believe the Niners will not be as good this year and the Seahawks will be much improved on D.
I'm with you although I won't be surprised if the Seahawks defense hasn't improved that much but they still split the series. The Seahawks were in 2 of those 3 games last year, they lost mainly due to not being as good in the trenches. I'm not super optimistic about our DL in 2023 but I think our OL will improve enough that the odds are much more favorable, because I think the Niner offense is going to regress in 2023.
I'm blown away that so many people think the Jags are the wrong favorite in that division. I know they are historically one of the worst teams in the NFL, but look at the competition. I voted "they are all right," and sure, the Jags might have been my 3rd pick out of 4, but that's with the Chiefs and Bengals being nearly sure things in theirs.
Reports on some Day 3 picks from various podcasts:
* Jim Nagy agrees that Derrick Hall deserved a first-round grade. Says the Hawks were all over him at the Senior Bowl
* Widespread agreement that Kenny McIntosh in the 7th round is a bargain. Interestingly, Nagy makes the argument that speed is overrated for RBs—that the leading rushers are rarely the fastest guys
* Paul Moyer says that ten rookies could make the team
* Again from Nagy, Oluwatami could have been drafted higher and is the center the Hawks had their eye on all along. Nagy says Olu is a week one starter
* Nagy describes Morris as a “projection” with a good upside. Moyer says that Morris could handle gaining another 20 pounds
* Ray Roberts agrees with Michael Bumpus that this year’s OL could be the best in a decade. Big Ray is an Olu fan as well, and highlights the sheer number of snaps he had as a college center. He’s glad the Hawks finally stopped drafting “versatile” O-lineman and have stopped trying to convert defensive lineman into offensive lineman
I projected higher than 8.5 wins because why not? It’s May. The talent has the makings of one of the best offenses in a weak conference. The defense pretty much has to be improved. Right?
Great reports!
I have been commenting now for years that we need the new players with energy, determination, and strong healthy bodies, as well as the veterans who have seen it all before; last year encouraged me and this year I see increased hope and success for the Hawks
Absolutely, Candy! Thanks for the comment, have some free premium!
The Cowboys won't go to the SB until Jerry Jones fires GM Jerry Jones and head coach Jerry Jones and sticks to signing the checks!
In the 25 years since their last SB win—I.e., the last hurrah of the Jimmy Johnson roster—the Cowboys are 232-199. That’s 9-8 year in and year out. They are 5-11 in the post-season. They’ve never won two playoff games in the same year and haven’t once advanced to the conference finals. And JJ is in the HOF because of all the money he’s raked in.
Dang...that’s almost Jeff Fischer-esque from his Rams years.
LOL! The Cowboys are a monument to symmetry. Dallas actually had three straight years of 8-8 (2011-2013), which were followed by 12-4 and 4-12. Record by coach since the last SB:
Switzer 16-16
Gailey 18-14
Campo 15-33
Parcells 24-24
Phillips 34-22
Garrett 85-67
McCarthy 30-20
Gailey is the only one who got another head coaching job (Buffalo 2010-2012, 16-32).
Nothing to do with todays article! Back in the sixties in Kenya, my old man used to rally race and one of the events was the 444, that being the distance. His weapon of choice was a 2 stroke Saab 96. Ok bye.
Thank you, Duncan! I love to hear that.
I completely discount the optimism one routinely sees from fans in the preseason. Fanatics are, almost by definition, forever optimistic. That's a good thing for the NFL because if people grokked what a long shot their team was to win the Superbowl, it would be much harder to fill stadiums. 31 out of 32 teams come up short every year. Much longer odds than when there were six NFL teams.
We won't know how good the Seahawks are until the season begins. It's a good bet that teams like the Chiefs will be strong and teams like the Rams weak, but there are always surprises. Honestly, if the Hawks won 4 games next season, it wouldn't bum me out or leave me feeling any less connected. I'd look forward to our chance to pick early in what promises to be a strong draft. Win or lose, one can always find interesting things to notice.
Wait...in order to actually grok their team's odds, would they not have to make a stew of the players? Or, perhaps, a soup?
At least the ones named "Mike"!
That was more my thoughts about last year. Your observations of optimists and fans is correct, but I'm wondering why you reject optimism? There are certainly reasons to be optimist. Even being entirely objective for a moment, there are still plenty of reasons to be very hopeful, another word for optimistic. Sheer reason and logic suggest we will be a better team this year than last. With Al Woods gone, there is not a single player that is aging out. Wagner's got at least this year in him, and the rest are quite young and should improve year over year. We added significant pieces on both sides of the ball. The competition within the NFCW has only gotten easier.
I don't disagree, Stephen. If I were an odds maker, I'd say Seattle 2023 is 65-75% likely to be better than Seattle 2022. But that leaves the other 25-35%. I'm too old to get myself worked up counting baby chickens; however, years of watching sports teams has taught me that, winning or losing, I can always find something of value to appreciate. In down years, I typically love most of all watching the development of young players. With the internet, I enjoy talking to and connecting with other fans. Years ago, when tickets were reasonably priced, I enjoyed meeting up with folks at the games. Now, maybe at a sports bar, though most of the time these days I'm sharing the game at home with my wife and son. If there's a live blog to follow, that's ideal. I hope Kenneth considers creating one here as I think this community is almost ideal for it.
Yea, that's becoming more and more my interest in the game. Watching the development. Fun times.
I like seeing a UDFA or late round pick becoming a star like Dog Baldwin, Steve Largent, Jim Zorn etal.
One of my fondest Hawk memories is Joe Namath telling the TV audience " If Steve Largent is so slow, how come he's always behind all those fast guys ?"
Lol!
Yeah, and if we win too, so much the better.
I dunno, division rivalry games almost never turn out the way one would expect they should. The Seahawks probably *should* beat the Rams by 2 TDs that first game but could McVay find a way to make it closer? At 5.5 points I would (if I were betting but I'm not) take the over, and straight-up I am as positive as I can be the Seahawks will win, but could it be by 3 points? Yeah, it could.
And the Seahawks could still go on from there and post up a 13-4 season.
Between 2005-2014, the Seahawks beat the Rams 17 out of 20 times, with 10 of those being by at least 10 points. I get the hesitancy to feel confident, but recency bias can come into play when ignoring that many times in history has one division team been dominant over another or that bad/terrible teams are bad/terrible most of the time. I just think the Rams are terrible, same as the Cardinals, and I suspect there's confidence going against the Cardinals too.
I don't disagree with you, and I also think that it's alright if someone feels that a good team should beat a bad team regardless of being in the same division.
I'm probably more hesitant because it's Week 1 than I would be because it's the Rams. Their defense is one of the least experienced in NFL history, if not the most inexperienced, and there isn't a single player expected to be good other than 32-year-old Aaron Donald.
Yes, Week 1 is also the other variable.
Between 2012 and 2015 there were games that, on paper, the Rams had no business being in but were closer than they should have been (and a couple of losses as well)
It's funny though that I think of the Niners in the reverse: the Seahawks have been similarly dominant vs the Niners for the most part and swept them in 2021 when the Seahawks were not otherwise very good. The Niners swept the Seahawks last year, then beat them again in the playoffs, yet I think the odds of a split this year are very good for the Seahawks. It may be completely irrational, but there I do believe the Niners will not be as good this year and the Seahawks will be much improved on D.
The Cardinals... do they even count?
I'm with you although I won't be surprised if the Seahawks defense hasn't improved that much but they still split the series. The Seahawks were in 2 of those 3 games last year, they lost mainly due to not being as good in the trenches. I'm not super optimistic about our DL in 2023 but I think our OL will improve enough that the odds are much more favorable, because I think the Niner offense is going to regress in 2023.
I'm blown away that so many people think the Jags are the wrong favorite in that division. I know they are historically one of the worst teams in the NFL, but look at the competition. I voted "they are all right," and sure, the Jags might have been my 3rd pick out of 4, but that's with the Chiefs and Bengals being nearly sure things in theirs.