Seahawks biggest draft weakness: A blind spot at the most important position
Geno Smith vs. Dak Prescott on Thursday night: Seaside Joe 1731
It’s just my opinion, but if the Seattle Seahawks have a glaring blindspot in their draft philosophy under Pete Carroll and John Schneider, it is the franchise’s unwillingness to have used a few more of their picks on quarterbacks. I don’t care if the pick is forced, it’s kind of the point to be forced actually, the Seahawks should have done more in the past 14 years than using a third rounder and a seventh rounder on the most important position in football.
Especially given the incredible return on investment that they got with that third round pick.
Since 2010, the most valuable non-first round quarterback in the entire league has been Russell Wilson. Dak Prescott, this Thursday’s opponent and a quarterback who is a legitimate threat to be the league’s 2023 MVP, is making a strong case for the top-5.
QBs picked after first round, 2010-present, sorted by Adjusted Value:
It’s not that I think the Seahawks should have drafted Prescott. It’s not that I believe that a significant percentage of mid-tier quarterback prospects turn into starters, because that’s rarely the case.
It’s that two quarterbacks in 14 years is not enough. The evidence is all over Seattle’s schedule that it is not enough.
Baltimore Ravens: When the Ravens traded up for Lamar Jackson with the 32nd overall pick in 2018, they didn’t do so out of desperation for a quarterback. Yeah, Joe Flacco was a poor excuse for a starter by then, but a lot of teams would have fallen for the trap of trying to get a mediocre talent ‘more help’ at that point. Baltimore picked Jackson five spots after the Seahawks selected Rashaad Penny and did so only because if the rest of the league was wrong about the quarterback, it would change the makeup of a franchise that hadn’t been a legitimate Super Bowl contender since 2012.
The Ravens took a relatively small gamble with a potentially huge payoff.
Should Seattle have picked Lamar Jackson in 2018, four years before they traded Wilson? I’m not saying that we don’t benefit from hindsight, but there are two key facts to remember: Wilson was entering a negotiation period on a contract set to expire in 2020 and Schneider was reportedly VERY high on Josh Allen that same class.
If the Seahawks were considering a deal for Allen, as rumored, certainly they could have entertained Jackson without having to make a single trade at all.
Washington Moons: Sam Howell isn’t necessarily blowing my mind with his performances this season, but some of you may recall that he was the only QB in the 2022 class who I felt the Seahawks should draft. As a fifth round pick, what was Seattle so afraid of, especially given the state of the position last year? They could have kept Howell—or a different QB, he’s just the one I wanted at the time—as a third option next to two veterans who had proven little as starters in the NFL.
Now Howell is either going to pass or fail his test as a starter—he leads the NFL in completions, attempts, passing yards…but also interceptions and sacks—and that’s an opportunity afforded to few quarterbacks drafted on day three. He did something right and he could end up as the next Kirk Cousins, another Washington player who wasn’t very good until his third or fourth year as a starter.
The Seahawks can’t be mad with the first player they picked in the fifth round, Riq Woolen, but they did also select Coby Bryant and Tyreke Smith in that same general vicinity. It’s NOT that I’m saying Seattle should have drafted Howell and that I have all the answers. It’s that when you NEVER draft quarterbacks, it opens you up to being questioned on all the quarterbacks you didn’t draft…especially when you have a problem situation at quarterback.
San Francisco 49ers: You knew we would get here. Brock Purdy, the NFL leader in completion percentage, passer rating, QBR, DYAR, DVOA, yards per attempt, he could have been on any team in the league. He may be in the best possible situation for him, but we’ve also seen how mediocre San Francisco’s offense can be with the wrong quarterback. Where would Kyle Shanahan be today if a different team had taken Purdy and stolen that chance from the Niners? The Seahawks selected Bo Melton and Dareke Young in the seventh round instead of a quarterback.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys picked Dak Prescott in the fourth round of the 2016 draft, which was before they knew that Tony Romo would suffer a career-ending injury that same year. Yeah, Romo was 36 and had missed most of the previous season, but he almost won MVP in 2014. Choosing Prescott was insurance in case Romo missed a few games that year, not an expected franchise quarterback. You don’t pick QBs on day three because you expect them to be MVP contenders. You do it because the odds of finding ANY great player on day three are so low, you are practically obligated to spin the wheel on a quarterback every so often.
Except that Seattle doesn’t do that. They have only taken that risk one time: Alex McGough in the seventh round in 2018. And McGough wasn’t a bad pick, in fact he’s had a semi-successful football career, just not in the NFL. The decision was correct and nobody will ever criticize using a day three pick on a quarterback because the risk is so minimal and the reward is so great.
In back-to-back weeks, the Seattle Seahawks will be tasked with having to stop a quarterback who was one such risk, reward, and MVP candidate. And then Seattle will face Jalen Hurts, a second round pick in 2020 who was selected six spots after the Seahawks chose (many said “reached for”) Darrell Taylor.
Am I saying that the Seahawks should have drafted Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Sam Howell, and Brock Purdy? No!
Am I saying that Schneider, an executive whose mentor worked for the Packers when they picked Mark Brunell in the fifth round, when they picked Matt Hasselbeck in the sixth round, when they picked Aaron Brooks in the fourth round, when they picked Aaron Rodgers years before he’d get an opportunity, and when they picked Matt Flynn in the seventh round (good value, at least), that he should have strong-armed Pete Carroll into taking a few additional shots at the position?
Hell yes.
It doesn’t matter if none of those hypothetical picks would have ended up working out and most don’t. But while I can’t guarantee that drafting more quarterbacks would have yielded valuable results, I can guarantee that not drafting quarterbacks yields no quarterbacks.
And the Seahawks appear to have five games in a row against teams that drafted their current quarterbacks after the first round (49ers, Cowboys, 49ers, Eagles, Titans) with the second of those coming on Thursday. The career comparison between Seattle’s free agency solution to replacing Wilson vs. a day 3 draft pick who was only expected to backup Romo is one that has such a vast disparity in statistical talent that even I couldn’t believe the results.
Dak Prescott vs. Geno Smith
You could say that Dak Prescott has done more in 2023 than Geno has done since being a second round pick in 2013.
“Dak must have a better offensive coordinator than Shane Waldron then! Haha!”
Yeah, because that’s what I kept hearing about the Cowboys current offensive coordinator from 2018-2020…”Brian Schottenheimer is a genius.”
With the same offensive coordinator that was run out of Seattle in favor of Waldron, here’s what Dak is doing this season and over his career: