Top Reader Comments: Bijan Robinson to save Seahawks in 2023?
Should Geno Smith be protected from blame and how much will he cost to keep? Seaside Joe 1367
I have been living and breathing Seattle Seahawks news every morning, noon, and night since my first opportunity to start covering the team in 2011, but I’ve always emphasized that the collective knowledge of the communities that I oversee makes what I know about football seem like drawing Z’s and E’s in the sand instead of X’s and O’s.
Every time I send a Seaside Joe newsletter, I do so with a hidden coded message that reads “IMPOSTER” somewhere behind the GIFs, tweets, and ramblings on unrelated horror movies that most of you will never have any interest in seeing anyway. (Did you see Terrifier 2? You gotta see Terrifier 2!)
We’ve had mailbags, Q&As, surveys, and contests, but I REALLY want to emphasize to everyone just how GREAT our comments section and community is at Seaside Joe. The readers are better than Seaside Joe! You sign up for Joe, you get an entire community added for FREE!
Seasiders have written hundreds of comments in the last week as the community continues to expand, so I want to highlight some of those thoughts and give credit where credit is due, plus I think that some of you will have better answers/replies to these comments than what I could possibly give. As always, if you’re a free subscriber and leave a comment, I’ll hand out some gifts for access to regular joes! Some of you are not regular joes and are leaving comments, but I have nowhere to send the comped premium access because you’re not signed up for Seaside Joe.
Here are some of your top comments from the weekend and what Seasiders think as far as how to approach the offseason, how to fix Seattle’s issues with the defense, and whether or not Geno Smith can be held accountable for a loss, even if he’s not the sole reason for winning and losing.
Can I ask the folks here a rookie question (i'm the rookie)? comparing The Giants game against the Raiders Game, were we solidly in 3-4 defense for both? I know that there was a schematic change for the Giants and other games in that great streak where they were 'punching the gap' rather than staying back to read. Meanwhile whether they were reading or punching, were they always still in 3-4?
I gave Andy my honest answer of, “I’m not really sure, let’s ask around” and he replied with a follow-up. My man! Thank you! I appreciate it whenever someone decides to do the leg work:
I've been searching around, and I think here's the deal: Against the Giants it was more Bear front which is what they ran last year and the year before under Norton. With the Bucks and Raiders they back to more 3-4 principles which is more two gap read and react with the defensive tackles. It seems straightforwardly (though I could always use some backup or disagreement here because I'm not an expert) that the only games they used the 'old system' of Bear fronts were the 4 game hot streak, bookended with The Cardinals. Everything else has been the new 3-4 scheme brought in by Hurtt.
If that holds up to be true to more expert folks than me, I think it's a pretty straightforward sign that we should no longer run the 3-4, ever again this year. Arguments being that the bear 4/3 plugs gaps with quickness which is what we're built for, as opposed to the 3-4 which relies on strength and guys' ability to toss their blocker.
Well, there you have it. We also talked about abandoning the 3-4 in Monday’s post. I think it may be too soon and it’s all dependent on finding better personnel, no matter what scheme you’re running. Seattle has always said, “We’ve got 3-4 personnel, but we run a 4-3 base,” so what gives?
Do the Seahawks need to get 4-3 personnel so that they can run a 3-4 base?
I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I know for a fact that the Seahawks should draft a defensive lineman with their first pick, because I’d rather consider every option before we rule out players because they aren’t “a need.” I’ve never thought teams should draft for need. The NFL changes too quickly year-to-year and week-to-week.
I’m also not going to say that the Seahawks shouldn’t draft Jalen Carter or Will Anderson. I like good defensive prospects, too!
I like what Rob Staton had to say about Carter and Will Anderson. He has a different take than me on the 3-4 defense, but that’s another difference between Seaside Joe and most others: I don’t mind sharing differing opinions!
He’s right about the draft. The Seahawks can’t put all their eggs in one basket.
As for tackling, which I believe to be THE NUMBER ONE FUNDAMENTAL OF FOOTBALL, the seahawks were so bad that one has to wonder how much pure tackling time is spent at practice (although players at the pro level SHOULD know how to tackle correctly) don't hope hits will bring a guy down, wrap him up and put him on the ground! So Kenneth, what is different with the D the past 2 games that has them playing like they did at the start of the season? Mid season they demonstrated they could play reasonably good NFL defense so what has happened?
The Geno question is tough. I still do not trust or believe Geno is the starting QB that can lead us to the SB. $30M is a lot of money, money a team does not want to spend on an 11 year vet who breaks out after said 11 years. Caution please Pete.
On tackling, I think it’s easy to forget or overlook that for all the accoutrement we spend over-debating other elements of the game, football essentially boils down to one man’s test of speed and strength against another man’s speed and/or strength. We see that in Maxx Crosby dominating Abe Lucas. We see that in Kenneth Walker’s dudes pushing Crosby’s dudes over the goal line. (To be fair, the only number I could make out in the pile is #37 Tyler Hall.)
If you don’t tackle properly, then the test of strength and speed go out the window! I, Seaside Joe, don’t need to be fast or strong to move down the field if you don’t tackle me. The problem with Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry: They are fast and strong. You DEFINITELY can’t get away with poor tackling against them.
As for Geno and $30 million, we have to remember that the Rams won the Super Bowl last season while paying $30 million to JARED GOFF. Not to Matthew Stafford. The Seahawks are doing better this season by paying almost $30 million for Russell Wilson to not be here. I’ve always felt there’s an over-obsession with contract figures and I wish these numbers weren’t public. We should only be concerned with the players, not the salaries!
Not to disregard your point, which is fair.
Ultimately, I think fans need to only decide, “Do I want Geno Smith to return or do I not care that much?” I see too much of fans trying to talk themselves into Geno, but only halfway, because they’re worried about the money. Remember, Seasiders voted Geno as the team’s MVP and it wasn’t even close! That may be because there is not a super obvious alternative and QB is QB, but I think let’s first settle on how important the presence of Geno is to 2022 before trying to come up with ways for him to come at a discount.
If he wants to “Tom Brady” his value for the betterment of the team, by all means. But that is called the “Tom Brady” because nobody else has ever taken a discount at that level.
The 2023 franchise tag for a QB is $31 million and applying a second tag in 2024 would be $37 million. How negotiations tend to work in these cases is that if the team is willing to use the tag, the agent for the player says, “Well, then the starting point is two years, $68 million, fully-guaranteed” because that’s how much two tags would cost. And players have agents for a variety of reasons but one of the biggest is so that they don’t have to take a “discount.”
“Hey Geno, how are things going in negotiating with the team?”
“You have to talk to my agent.”
That’s what the players always say, unless they’re representing themselves, and then they still don’t say anything.
Right now, $30 million per year is a lowball if Geno is the starting NFC Pro Bowl quarterback. And fans don’t need to believe that it is a lowball. Only Geno Smith and his agent need to believe that it is a lowball. If Seattle doesn’t give Geno the contract offer he desires, it’s tag or let him test the market. If he tests the market, I don’t think Geno is coming back to the Seahawks. Too many desperate GMs out there with lots of cash and nothing to lose.
Why didn't this article go to my email? I know it's not your fault, Kenneth, but wah, wah, wah.
When articles failed to appear in my email in-box, I assumed you finally took a well earned and needed break from your writing marathon. But now I see it is just some fluke that keeps me from receiving the fruit of your marathon.
This SUCKS! I definitely HATE IT when there are any technical glitches or anything that prevents Seasiders from having the optimal experience with this newsletter or blog. I do not want that to happen! I may not always be the person to resolve the problem, but I do want readers to tell me if there are glitches or errors preventing them from having the perfect experience at Seaside Joe. Sometimes my writing may come off as sarcastic to some: I don’t think I’m ever sarcastic!
Thanks for letting me know, I want readers to let me know when the emails do not get to them. I, myself, had a newsletter go into my “promotions” tab the other day. So don’t hesitate to let me know when the site sucks!
Can we go back to what worked during our four-game win streak, or did Tampa Bay just give the league the blue print for scoring points against the Seahawks? It sounds a lot better for Pete to say we schemed to stop Brady's short passing game, or Devante Adams elite level of play, than to say we don't have the personnel to stop the power run game against the middle of our D line.
I will say that Pete Carroll has an outstanding history with picking up veteran defensive linemen on the cheap who have enjoyed career years under his guidance. Everyone from Chris Clemons as an edge rusher in year one to Al Woods as a maneater in year 2022. Michael Bennett, Tony McDaniel, etc. etc. etc. So, how will Seattle solve this issue next year? I think veteran acquisitions is more likely than counting on the number one draft pick.
And I think maybe this is the year to let Poona Ford go. It’s not to blame Poona, but as one of the only free agents, maybe it is time to let those snaps go to a different style/bigger nose tackle.
Adams wouldn't make any difference, but the draft picks we gave up for him would have. He's nowhere near the talent of Earl or Kam. He's a bad tackler, and doesn't cover well. He gets sacks, which really isn't something we need from a safety.
Well, I have to disagree with you on at least one point. The Seahawks need to put pressure on the quarterback from somewhere. Uchenna Nwosu is nice, I don’t think we can paint him as a singular dominant force. And then what? Quinton Jefferson will finish with four sacks?
No, Seattle should not be relying on safeties for sacks, but this pass rush feels like a similar story to the last few seasons.
As for Adams as a safety, what do the fans think? I have heard two completely different stories from people, one that Adams would be the difference on defense and the other that the Seahawks should have cut their losses last year.
In general, it seems to me that the teams are maybe playing harder than usual this year? I don't really see a bad team trying to give it up and tank for a better draft position. There are games where teams get blown out but I think for the most part from game to game teams are playing hard.
I think this has always been the case. The only thing a franchise can do to tank is to have the GM decimate the roster and if you’re the Dolphins, bribe the coach to try to lose. But I’ve never been able to come up with a single tank-related reason that players would try to lose. The Texans are a great example of a GM who has intentionally lost games in the last two years, but the players know they’re cannon fodder. They’ve got nothing to gain by losing! Lovie Smith too, what does he have to gain by losing?
But make no mistake, Houston’s 1-9-1 record is a product of the front office tanking and I think it is for Bryce Young.
I’m already shilling for Bijan Robinson in the 2023 draft. We need that piece to rotate with Walker if we don’t resign/can’t trust Penny for a full season
Seahawks draft a first round running back? Say it IS so! The worse Seattle’s draft grades, the better for Seattle’s draft.
Robinson, a running back out of Texas, has spent the last three years as “that guy” for draft analysts who are excited about his eventual placement in the NFL. We’ve seen this with Saquon Barkley before, but we’ve also seen it with Leonard Fournette. NFL teams draft receivers in back-to-back first rounds. We saw Miami draft Jaylen Waddle and trade for Tyreek Hill a year later. Why can’t they do it with running backs? And running backs get way more touches than receivers.
I am NOT against Bijan Robinson, although he will cost a first round pick.
I would love to join the subscriber chat, but according to Substack, it's not available to Android users. Why everyone has to adapt to the Apple cult, I have no idea. You're losing at least half of your audience.
If I ran the world, Substack would be on Android. All complaints about the website are warranted and I want to hear them! I want to help any way that I possibly can! This feels like it is outside of my capabilities, but Android dominates the world market and I’d like to see the Substack app make it to their phones. That day, we will throw a party!
The only thing I can ask for is more support. The larger that this community grows, the power Seaside Joe will have to get a seat at the table. Please tell Seahawks fans about us. Please!
Ken- Regarding defense, I posted last summer, that I've been saying for 3 seasons now, that the Seahawks needed to draft a high caliber DT to collapse the middle of the pocket, and to help stop the run. The raider game just put an exclamation mark on that need. The Seahawks need to draft 2 high caliber DT next Spring to take care of that DL problem. And CB M. Jackson will probably be replaced after tonite showing. Happy Holidays to you Ken
We’ll see! I don’t think fans should put all their eggs in one basket. Imagine trying to convince Seahawks fans that “number one cornerback will be fine because we’re gonna draft this guy in the fifth round and start him from day one.”
None of you (or me) would have been happy about that!
Were this game in week 1, we would be pleasantly surprised that we lost on overtime to a 2021 playoff team that added Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. And, by the way, we played better than Week 1.
I'm starting to think Seaside Joe is right about just about everything. On Nov. 17th Joe said the SeaHawks "are a mid-tier team that needs another superstar or two..." I think those superstars should be an edge rusher and D-lineman. A very good WR and an above average center would be my second round picks.
I am grateful that you’ve overlooked all my misses and screw-ups. Here’s what I’m going to say about “draft this position, draft that position.” Draft four good players in the first two rounds and I’ll be happy. If those are the positions that they play, sounds fine to me!
Brock Huard had the most salient comment of the day. QB and scheme go out the window if you can't block and Crosby was in Geno's face all day long. The Raiders manhandled both of our lines yesterday. I blame Waldron a bit for not giving Lucas help when it was obvious he was overmatched.
Has anyone asked Pete or Shane Waldron about this? I assume it is because it would have hurt them in other ways to have to constantly account for helping Lucas with Crosby. Oh well, I guess this is a day that Abe Lucas will have to talk about during his Hall of Fame acceptance speech as a learning lesson.
I was very dissatisfied with DK's game. He is not meant to be a reliable safety valve--he is meant to be a game-wrecking WR taking the top off of the D. He can't win 50-50 balls at a rate that justifies throwing them at this point. His effort on the end zone near INT was... not what we should expect. So, maybe because his talent says he should be playing at a higher level than he is, I would definitely put DK as a 'stock down'.
I do think that we all got a little over-excited about DK Metcalf because of his freakish athletic nature and the fact that for the first time in a long time, Seattle didn’t draft a wide receiver who took three or four years to develop into a starter. However, once you sign a contract that pays you top-10 money, it’s time to start playing like a top-10 receiver.
It’s Week 13, Geno Smith is leading the NFC in Pro Bowl voting, and Metcalf has one game all year long with more than 90 yards. He’s kind of just… Jimmy Graham at wide receiver? We’ve yet to see the real “wow” factor with Metcalf, but I will say that using Davante Adams as an example, he didn’t level up until year five.
Geno Smith lead the Seahawks to 34 points without any run game but two K9 great TD runs. Anyone blaming Geno is crazy.
Let’s breakdown 34 points over 65:40 of football time. Seattle had two 75-yard touchdown drives, one in the second quarter and one in the third quarter. That’s great news! They also had a 12-yard touchdown drive, two field goal drives of 29 and 47 yards, and a 47-yard touchdown drive.
It’s interesting phrasing, isn’t it? The quarterback “leads” but the quarterback “can’t be blamed.”
The Seahawks also had a 64-yard drive end in a Geno Smith fumble and an 11-yard drive that ended in a Geno Smith interception, leading directly to a Raiders touchdown by Josh Jacobs on the next play. So Seattle scored 34 points, but Geno Smith also took at least three points off the board with his fumble and gave Las Vegas back seven points because of his interception, and we’ve also got the case of a pick in the end zone that was overturned on replay.
So if Geno Smith “led” the Seahawks to 34 points in four and a half quarters, but was also worth -10 points, if not -14, didn’t he kind of only lead Seattle to 20-24 points in more than a game’s worth of drives?
There’s a protection from blame given to quarterbacks sometimes like they need the secret service. Instead of going that route, couldn’t we praise Geno Smith for his good plays and also keep track of the ones that we never want to see from him again? I know that I didn’t blame Geno for the loss. That doesn’t make him blameless.
The incomplete pass to DK hurt but that's nitpicking.
I don’t know what else to say other than QB tiers are not separated by a dozen plays per game or arm strength or mobility. QB tiers—”elite” and “great” and “good enough” and “average” and so on—are separated by two or three plays per game. So to me, the difference between great and average could be as little as three or four plays in a game. And those are the plays that could lead to winning or losing. Unfortunately in Geno’s 14 starts with Pete Carroll so far, there’s quite a few losses that were a play or two from being a win.
At no point have I ever said that Geno Smith hasn’t earned the right to continue starting. But if and when Patrick Mahomes is in the Super Bowl this year, which would be his third in four years, and his fifth straight AFC Championship appearance, it won’t be because Kansas City drafted George Karlaftis and signed Carlos Dunlap. Seattle should not be tricked into thinking that just because Geno and Mahomes are starting in the Pro Bowl that they are of equal value.
And I don’t think the Seahawks should pass on Bryce Young if they get the opportunity to draft him.
Before Germany I would have agreed about Geno & the pro bowl. I am not saying he's our main problem, but the Hawks need to turn things around if Geno is going to have the perception of being a top QB.
If they want the respect, Geno Smith and the Seahawks as a whole need to absolutely obliterate the Rams at their lowest.