Do teams have a 'mini-bye' advantage?
Seahawks rule out 4 players against the Bucs, including 3 starters
No.
In short, the bye week and the mini-bye week (the 10 days between Thursday and the next Sunday) have shown “no significant evidence” of being an advantage due to extra rest. Studies from several sources, including the NFL’s own league office, have shown a non-significant advantage for teams getting 10 days rest, as the Seahawks have this weekend against the Bucs.
We find that the most commonly referred to inequities—both the bye week rest advantage and the mini-bye week rest advantage— currently show no significant evidence of providing the rested team a competitive edge.
Notably, there actually WAS an advantage in the mini-bye prior to 2011, but the Collective Bargaining Agreement gave players an extra four days off from work during the mini-bye, which meant that they stopped using their extra time to study and prepare. It turns out the advantage was not from rest but from preparation.
Further, we trace a decline in the advantage of a bye week to a 2011 change to the NFL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement, which represents a natural experiment to test the relevance of rest and preparation in football. Prior to the agreement, NFL teams off a bye week received a significant advantage (+2.2 points per game), but since 2011, that benefit has been mitigated. Our findings imply that extra days with practice time, and not extra days off alone, are the primary driver of any NFL rest advantage.
Knowing this, you would think that some players would say “screw the four days off, I want to win” and study harder, but who knows if that’s happening. Did any Seahawks use the mini-bye to prepare more for Tampa Bay? If anyone did it, you would hope it’s Sam Darnold. I guess we’ll never really know.
Impact of Thursday Night Football
On Thursday, I wrote that Seahawks fans should root for the 49ers to win because the Rams are the better team and I stand by that for at least one reason: The 4-1 Rams would be scarier than the 4-1 49ers.
Even though San Francisco already has a win over Seattle and is 3-0 in the NFC West, there are plenty of significant obstacles on the horizon for a 49ers team with a mountain of important injuries and road games in five of the next eight weeks. The Niners have barely squeaked by in every win and although they get my respect for beating the Rams, this was a home game on the road.
The Rams play road games at their home arena, it’s insane.
By the way, this is a very weird fact that I posted in the comments of yesterday’s newsletter:
QBs to win their first 3 starts, throw 900 yards, 6+ TD, and 0-1 interceptions:
-Johnny Unitas, 1967
-Tom Brady, 2011/2015/2016/2019
-Donovan McNabb, 2004
-Peyton Manning, 2013
-Aaron Rodgers, 2011
-Patrick Mahomes, 2019
-Russell Wilson, 2020
-Josh Allen, 2020
-Matthew Stafford, 2021
-Mac Jones, 2025!!!
Do we think that Mac Jones is going to stay undefeated?
The flipside to this question is “Well then maybe the Rams aren’t that good?” Maybe the Rams aren’t that good! But the Rams started 1-4 last season and won the NFC West over the Seahawks. The Rams started 3-6 in 2023 and won a wild card berth over the Seahawks.
L.A. being 3-2 right now is literally the best start that Sean McVay has had in four years and the Rams made the playoffs the last two years.
If the 49ers are this year’s miracle team, so be it, but the safer bet is the team with Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, not the one with Mac Jones/Brock Purdy and Kendrick Bourne. At least, that’s what I think. And the Seahawks, despite Week 1, tend to do a lot better against Shanahan than against McVay.
Seahawks-Bucs injury report
Seahawks ruled OUT:
S Julian Love
CB Devon Witherspoon
DE DeMarcus Lawrence
T Josh Jones
Nick Emmanwori is going to return on Sunday. Byron Murphy was limited on Friday with a back injury, but doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing the game.
Bucs ruled OUT:
CB Jamel Dean
WR Mike Evans
RB Bucky Irving
S Christian Izien
CB Benjamin Morrison
Everybody else on the Bucs seems ready to go, including Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Haason Reddick, and Lavonte David.
It’s going to be harder for the Seahawks to trade Tariq Woolen when the secondary keeps losing players each week. It looks like another heavy workload this week for Derion Kendrick.
I wonder how much Tampa likes their secondary depth as Dean is a starter and the other two have important roles. Rookie third round pick Jacob Parrish is a cornerback who has played a lot of snaps already, maybe Darnold will aim the ball towards him a lot?
Seaside Joe 2405
I was pissed at the Rams for not kicking the FG in OT. I wanted both teams to get half a loss (a tie.)
Thursday night was confusing for me. As a football fan I found myself admiring the 49ers grit, team effort, and coaching. As a Seahawks fan I hate that they do anything well.