The Seattle Seahawks ruled out Jadarian Price this week, meaning that Emanuel Wilson will make his first start with the team. Wilson’s first career start came in Week 12 with the Minnesota Vikings last season, and in that game he rushed over 100 yards for the first time.
In a blowout led by the Packers defense, Wilson had 28 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns in place of Josh Jacobs. The Seahawks hope to lean on Wilson in a similar fashion against the Chargers on Sunday, and he’s already had the best game for the team so far this season, as he rushed for 92 yards against the Cardinals in Week 2.
Seaside Joe’s Week 4 expectations survey was built around the assumption that Price would start, but I think I’ll have your blessing to pivot.
Price’s declining expectations
Price has yet to come within 25 yards of fan expectations this season, and last week he fell 43 yards shy after he both got sent to the doghouse and injured himself.
Price Emanuel Wilson expectations: 61.5 yards
My guess: Over
I think Wilson can do it and I think he will do it. This is the most clear example so far of a Seahawks running back expected to get the bulk of the work, and I’m not sure L.A. is built to stop the run if Seattle gets a lead.
JSN expectations: 128 yards
My guess: Under
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s expectations have gone up every week, from 101 yards in Week 1 to 128 yards in Week 4, and he’s exceeded the mark every time.
I don’t expect JSN to have a bad game by any means, but maybe this is the week that Brian Fleury and Sam Darnold spread it around a bit more and he “only” has 100-120 yards.
Darnold expectations: 295 yards
My guess: Under
Seahawks QBs have exceeded expectations in each of the past two games, including a season-high 379 last week. I think this will be a more conservative offensive performance by Seattle and they won’t need to pass the ball as much. The Chargers have not allowed more than 277 yards passing in a game, but they’re also often trailing.
Score: Seahawks 30, Chargers 14
Well, your confidence has not taken a hit after last week’s loss. Perhaps the most interesting data point here will come next week against the San Francisco 49ers, because against a winless Chargers team there’s no wavering in belief of the Super Bowl champs.
2nd most-yards: A.J. Barner
First TD: JSN
Sacks Leader: Leonard Williams
Most likely to force a TO: Ernest Jones IV
OPOG: JSN
DPOG: Williams
STPOG: Michael Dickson
Cooper Kupp has only averaged 36.5 yards per game with the Seahawks, which ordinarily would make a player a bit of a gamble in this case but not necessarily on Seattle’s offense. Kupp is still second on the team in yards and he’s going to be my guess for “WR2”.
I like Wilson for the touchdown, Jones IV for the turnover, and Uchenna Nwosu to notch the most sacks since the Chargers are his former team.
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scottula: Is this the season of the backup QB or what? Exciting for our Lock, pretty cool for Chicago tonight. Geno ain’t doing bad either, fwiw. WHEN do we see STETSON BENNETT!?!?! Does Stafford throw so hard in week 5 that his torso seperates from his legs and Kelly has to bring all the girls on the field (becuz he’s a girl dad!!!) to reassemble him.....but his football career, is over. But Stetson only has the rockin’ name, not the years of experience....yet.
I think Bennett has quietly managed a miracle. He’s 29, he’s basically never played a real NFL game before, and yet he’s somehow the backup quarterback on a team that is supposed to be good. I’ve watched all of Bennett’s preseason games, however, and he’s not good. I think it would only take one start for Bennett to be replaced by rookie Ty Simpson.
Matthew Stafford will “magically” look better this week with the return of Puka Nacua and going against the Eagles defense. Stafford is able to get rid of the ball so quickly that he could probably make it through the entire season, unless the Rams lose so many games that he shuts it down like what happened in 2022.
Samuel Garfield: Do you understand the mechanics of EPA to explain how a team can give up 33 points, lose the game, and have such good EPA numbers? Obviously turnovers are the story, but shouldn’t turnovers TANK your “expected points added”? If you can, what does that say about what the Seahawks are doing well vs. what went wrong on Sunday?
The Seahawks had a defensive EPA of -0.15 against the Moons, which technically is “bad” but only by a hair. That’s a combination of a -9.75 EPA against the pass and 8.60 against the run, meaning that Seattle was indeed dinged heavily for allowing three touchdown passes and forcing zero turnovers, but they got credit for holding Washington to only 82 yards on 32 carries.
If you go to the box score on Pro-Football-Reference, you can actually scroll down to the play-by-play and sort every play by EPA:
A “+7” is obviously a touchdown because the team literally got 7 points added. If you scroll to the bottom, you get a “-7” when Darnold threw a pick-six.
The thing about EPA is that if your team is down 24-20 and has to go 85 yards for a touchdown, and then they go 85 yards for a go-ahead touchdown, there could be a lot of plays on the drive that add up as positives and the end result is a massive point swing because of the lead change. However, when Price fumbles and Washington only has to go 21 yards for a touchdown, it’s more of a gimme. The defense didn’t play horribly.
I don’t think there was anything wrong with the EPA outcome of this game. It says to me that the Seahawks had some really costly plays, but the team wasn’t terrible. To be down 14 points in the second half, on the road, and end up tying it and making it close in the fourth quarter, those plays add up to a team consistently executing situations that they needed to have to almost win the game.
Speaking of EPA, Seattle’s special teams has yet to have a positive game so far this season. Week 3 would have also been their third-worst special teams game of 2025, so Jay Harbaugh needs a rebound against Jim Harbaugh.
Largentium: When it comes to the defense, is losing a key starter or two (Love, Okada, E) having a cascading effect on the rest of the defense? Finley clearly hasn't had a lot of snaps with the starters and I wonder if losing one or more of those key starters negatively affects the Seahawks more than other defenses?
The Seahawks do get back Julian Love this week, while Ty Okada is questionable but was a full participant on Friday.
If Okada plays, the Seahawks will essentially be back to full strength on defense, not including Bud Clark, who is out for the year. When asked if there could be any depth chart changes though, Mike Macdonald was not clear if Rodney Thomas II would be pulled for Okada anyway. It sounds like Seattle has been happy with Thomas and might not rock the boat.
I know that doesn’t answer your question, but this week the Seahawks look healthy—and they have had a great defense.
Seattle has been an elite, say top-2 or top-3 defense through three games. That’s just by pure result though, right? The results show that against three offenses (Patriots, Cardinals, Moons), the Seahawks have had excellent results. But are those good offenses? Not especially.
When you say “cascading effect” my mind goes in the complete opposite direction:
It feels to me like Seattle’s defensive problems would have more to do with their somewhat, is it safe to say “mundane”, pass rush? The Seahawks are 12th in pressure rate (38%) and 15th in sack rate (6.5%). It’s not bad and that’s coming from a defense that is 31st in blitz rate. Still, unlike most things that Seattle does on defense, bothering the quarterback doesn’t feel common enough.
Moving forward I feel more confident in the players in the secondary (Devon Witherspoon, Nick Emmanwori, Julian Love, Nehemiah Pritchett, Thomas, Okada, Josh Jobe) than I do in the outside linebackers. That being said, your point does feel true if applied to a A.J. Finley→Jobe after the bad game he had last week, so maybe that’s something to monitor.
Relative to other defenses? I’m not sure, what do you all think?
Let's go Seahawks! This could well be a tough one. But shaky after the Moons and shuffling the offence around to try and kick it up a gear. But I have faith, and still predicting our first TD is a defensive player.
https://youtu.be/qcWPVd_2Irs?is=lBXe287jLkU5e_Qy
I found this video this week, going behind the scenes in the kitchen pre-season. As a former chef and currently working in food wholesale this is right up my street, but I think easily appeals to any Hawks fan.
Great highlight from everyone involved this team is a TEAM. And as long as we all keep pulling together in the same direction the odds are it'll work out in the end.
Plus I love shining a light on those in the background without whom the Seahawks just would not function. Dieticians, cooks, cleaners, kit staff, anyone and everyone that makes it work so our players can just play to their best.
If you have any other links to behind the scenes at Seahawks drop them as a reply. We should share the love and show our appreciation for everyone that's a Seahawks, not just the 53 highlighted on Sunday night.
I see our defense much more like an offense than most teams. I think it relies on the interplay of the different individuals more than individual contributions. When a offense replaces a player, even with an equal caliber player, it can throw off timing and precision. In the same way, our defense depends on each person knowing exactly what to expect from his teammates.