If there is a silver lining to the Seahawks coming off of a loss, it’s that this is the most unpredictable and exciting week of the Seaside Joe Expectations survey yet. How affected is the fans’ confidence in the team after losing to the Moons and ending a 12-game winning streak?
Even though the Seahawks are at home against winless Chargers team on Sunday, I expect expectations to dip compared to last week’s 33-9 pre-game expectations against the Moons. And I kind of love that: If we want the team to be resilient following an upset loss, so too do we expect Seattle’s fans to hold the line.
But I also think we’re going to see a change in the predictions. Fewer points scored, smaller scoring margins, fewer yards, different players picked for “of the game” winners. And maybe that caution will only last a week if the Seahawks can blow out L.A. on Sunday.
I mean, look at how excited this guy is to play for the Chargers:
Another great thing about running this survey deeper into the season is that now we’re starting to get relevant data points of reasonable expectations.
So let’s talk about those data points before we get to the survey link:
Seahawks scoring average: 25 (13th)
Seahawks opponent average: 16.7 (3rd)
Seattle still ranks third in points allowed in spite of last week’s result. The defense is also first in the NFL in yards allowed per drive (21.4) and percentage of drives allowing points (25%) which are even more relevant statistics for their defensive prowess.
(For anyone who doesn’t like this series, and that’s your right, I hope it is conveyed to everyone that I’m using these “prediction articles” as a jumping off point to talk about the teams. Not just as an excuse to make predictions. So we can dive into the matchups and the data and dig deeper before and after every game.)
The obvious downside is that it’s only been three games. Three is still more than zero, one, and two.
Chargers scoring average: 14.7 (29th)
Chargers opponent average: 25.3 (20th)
In 2024, the only head coaching hire consistently cited as the one better than Mike Macdonald was his former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers went 11-6 in each of his first two seasons, but have now lost six games in a row and it’s gotten to the point where insiders have to address Justin Herbert trade rumors. (He has a no-trade clause.)
Seahawks passing yards per game: 266.7
Chargers passing yards allowed per game: 233
It’s maybe only a little funky that Sam Darnold has only played in one full game and I’m talking about season-long passing stats, but that’s how good Drew Lock was in his absence. Darnold threw for 379 yards last week and that’s probably not as many as he’ll have this week.
The Chargers haven’t allowed that many yards, but rank 26th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Jadarian Price rushing yards per game: 39.7
Chargers run defense: These running backs
James Cook had a field day against the Chargers on Sunday. Tyler Allgeier and Jeremiyah Love combined for 102 yards. Ashton Jeanty has yet to really enjoy a breakout in the NFL.
The decline of Jadarian Price expectations should be significant this week. And we’re not hating on him or anything, this is just kind of what I expected to happen because rarely do rookie running backs meet “he should be great immediately” expectations put on the position. Look no further than Ashton Jeanty!
I have not lost any faith in Jeanty. Running backs deserve patience too.
Fans expected 78 yards in Week 1, then 87 yards in Week 2, then 68 yards in Week 3.
Coming off of 15 yards and his second fumble in as many games, what will Seahawks fans expect from Price in Week 4? At this point it’s not even clear to anyone how much trust the coaches have lost in Price and the plan moving forward.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba yards per game: 135
Chargers pass defense: These players
Tre Tucker is the only player to gain over 100 receiving yards against L.A., and the only wideout to gain more than 75 yards. These are the only six players to gain at least 50 yards, including a running back and a tight end. Luckily, JSN isn’t built like these players or anyone else.
First TD scorer
JSN has NFL leading totals of 27 catches, 405 yards, and six touchdowns. We almost saw Brady Russell score the first Seahawks touchdown last week. A.J. Barner is a dual threat scorer. But it’s really hard to bet against the league’s leading scorer.
Most Sacks
Leonard Williams leads the team with three sacks, followed by Derick Hall with two, then Drake Thomas and Jarran Reed with one each. Herbert has been sacked eight times, which is quite a lot. Seattle had a hard time getting home last week because Marcus Mariota was getting the ball out so fast.
Most Non-JSN rec yards
Cooper Kupp is second on the team with 101. Barner has 90. I think this is perhaps the most wide-open category on the survey.
Most likely to force a TO
No solid update on Julian Love yet. And it’s starting to look like maybe Ty Okada should have gone on IR right away, although I don’t know how much that would’ve helped the situation.
Herbert has thrown four interceptions and fumbled three times, so quarterback is the most obvious target for giving away the ball this week. That may be a clue for where to set your sights. Both cornerback interceptions were by Raiders rookie Hezekiah Masses (and he added a third last week) and the other two picks were by safeties.
The Chargers also fumbled FIVE TIMES against Las Vegas, but only one of them was recovered. Running back Omarion Hampton has fumbled twice this season.
If the Seahawks don’t get multiple takeaways this week, that will be a huge missed opportunity against this crumbling franchise.
OKAY ARE YOU PREPARED?
Last week’s “Greatest Expectations!” winner was Bret. And I don’t know what winners will get yet, but I’m keeping notes and I hope you now feel inspired to get competitive with your fellow Seasiders and take the plunge into a cold expectations survey. What’s the worst that could happen?
YOU WIN?
The only thing I can focus on is the 49ers in two weeks, we gotta get this run game situation figured out before then. Hopefully the Chargers game lets us air that out