Schneider's 4 most important players

Why Charles Cross is doing good enough to get an extension

My prediction of the month: The Seahawks will pay Charles Cross a lot of money next year, whether that’s the best idea or not, because it’s John Schneider’s next opportunity to prove to everyone that he made a great top-10 pick in 2022. And because he might need a win on his resume if this season doesn’t turn around.

Schneider’s first opportunity to indicate to the world that “Charles Cross was a great pick!” will be when Cross becomes eligible for an extension next year. Most fans, including myself, put a lot of stock into how much $MONEY$ offensive linemen get paid to judge how good they are because it’s impossible to have an informed opinion of ALL of those players:

• There are 160 starting offensive linemen (32 x 5) at any given time

• Then over twice that amount when including the backups

• And then there’s Jason Peters

Even Brandon Thorn, who specifically focuses on OL in college and pros, tweeted that he had never heard of Rams left guard Justin Dedich:

To be fair, few people have heard of Dedich, he’s a huge surprise. This is just an example of how there are hundreds of offensive linemen who have some role in the NFL and it is really hard to keep track, let alone watch each of them play, which would be 1200 snaps x 5 positions x 32 teams x 17 games for however many players. (Also an argument against PFF grades.)

So draft position and salary are KEYSTONES for OL opinions, and those two numbers also help fuel votes for awards and the Pro Bowl, which does even more to drive the opinions of individual linemen.

I started this by saying “prediction”, but that’s not really what it is. At the rate that Cross is going — he’s not a bust, he will start for a long time — it only makes sense that Schneider would want to approve the drafting of Cross because a) he’s the one who made the pick and b) he’s the one who gets to confirm to the world that it was as GREAT pick. Even if it was only a good pick.

😲SURPRISING ACT 2 TWIST😲

It actually does not make sense to extend Cross next year, but I still think that Schneider will do it.

With the fifth-year option, the Seahawks have Cross under contract through 2026 and with a franchise tag they could even hesitate for another year or two. If cautious, Seattle won’t extend Cross until at least 2026.

The reason Schneider would rush it?

If he feels like he needs a win.

Seattle has made four top-20 picks in the last three years (more than in his first 12 years as GM combined) and Schneider knows that most fans will judge his success based on how those four do:

• LT Charles Cross, 9th overall 2022

• NB Devon Witherspoon, 5th overall 2023

• WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 20th overall 2023

• DT Byron Murphy II, 16th overall 2024

Like offensive linemen, we have simplistic ways of judging GMs: First round draft picks, Trades, and Big Free Agents.

For a long time, the Seahawks could get away with having underwhelming first round picks because Seattle was always picking late. Schneider can’t make that excuse with Cross, Witherspoon, JSN, and Murphy. At least two of these picks have to be home runs, but more than likely some fans will hold it against Schneider if any one of them is a bust.

If I have a bias it is for these picks, not against them, and yet I would say that the reviews are “UNIVERSALLY MIXED” with all four.

Byron Murphy: Fans are going to like Murphy this year no matter what, so this couldn’t be a win for Schneider this early. Maybe if he was having a DROY type of year it could be, but that’s not the case.

Spoon: Definitely going through the most criticism he’s had in his career to this point. Top Billin’ called out Witherspoon’s tackling and coverage abilities this week:

JSN: A lot of his yards are “hidden yards” I guess. There has to be more actual yards and actual touchdowns for his actual value to be believed.

And then there’s Charles Cross.

(I still really like all of these players, by the way.)

These first round tackles were recently extended after three seasons in the NFL:

• Christian Darrisaw, Vikings

• Andrew Thomas, Giants

• Kolton Miller, Raiders

• Garrett Bolles, Broncos

Cross has had a similar career arc to those players and their extensions did “inception” ideas into my head that they must be great left tackles because of it. In the years that followed, I’ve seen more criticism of their play than before they got paid. It just makes sense to me that Schneider wants people to associate Cross with “great pick” and the easiest way to do that is to have headlines that say, “Seahawks pay Charles Cross $100 million”.

Then no matter what happens to the Seahawks between now and then, at least Schneider can say that his top-10 left tackle wasn’t a bust because he got paid. Which in turn will give fans optimism that JSN and Witherspoon will also have better year 3s than year 2s, like Cross, buying Schneider more time to continue to develop those players.

Is it a prediction if it’s just what makes the most sense?

Friday bonus: Pays QBs who win, don’t pay QBs to win

Seaside Joe 2040