50 '3-and-Outs'?
Seahawks did a better job of getting off of the field than any recent season, but what's the CONTEXT to this number?
Prediction: The Seahawks defense will lead the NFL in three-and-outs forced in 2025.
Seattle’s 2025 opponents, when combined with the likelihood that Mike Macdonald will continue to make the defense better, paints the picture of a unit that should have great season-long stats. But those numbers come with a price if the team fails to recognize their CONTEXT:
Season-long stats are the weapon of choice for fans and media members making arguments for their most-respected players and teams to get recognition, but those numbers are also full of plot holes.
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Less content, more conteXt.
This is just an example of context being important
Going into the last three games of the season, Geno Smith had thrown 14 touchdowns in 14 games. When Smith added four touchdowns to his season tally in Week 18’s “preseason game” against the Rams, that juiced his 2024 numbers and is one example of stats needing context.
I’m not piling onto Smith to cite him as an example: It’s just as important to add the context that Smith’s worst game of the year would also not be fairly representative of who he was as a quarterback for that entire season. Smith always plays poorly against the 49ers; nearly all of his games as a Seahawk with less than 6 adjusted yards per attempt have come against San Francisco:
But it doesn’t mean that he can’t be trusted in many other situations.
Everybody’s always trying to add context to Smith’s stats — whether that’s to hype him up or keep him down — so let Seaside Joe be one of the few to question Seattle’s defense against good teams in high-level situations:
The Packers kicked their asses in the first half (lost 22-10 in playoffs)
Sam Darnold had a clean game in a Vikings win that all but crushed the Seahawks playoff hopes (lost 27-9 in playoffs)
The Rams had 403 total yards and scored on 6 of 10 drives with their BACKUP offense in Week 18
Without a reprieve from the Bears offense in Week 17 — what if the Seahawks had to play their Lions matchup in Week 17 instead of Chicago? — how much different would fans feel about Macdonald’s first season as HC/DC given that Seattle was that close to a disastrous finish on defense?
Seaside Joe is only criticizing the Seahawks to the extent that Seaside Joe hopes Macdonald is criticizing himself and that players (who will be back) are holding themselves accountable so that Seattle actually CAN have the best defense next year.
3-and-Stout?
The Seahawks shared this image/stat on Twitter this week:
I just wanted context. I’m not looking to prove that Seattle’s defense is better or worse than any season-long totals, I’m only following the path of curiosity:
How does a defense — especially one that had such high variance in 2024 — accumulate the second-most three-and-outs during the season?
When I say “variance”, this is what I mean:
The Seahawks 5-best games by defensive EPA
(This is going to be a VERY screenshotty-post today, so probably best read on a big screen.)
Their sixth-best game in this category (29-20 loss to Giants) has a massive drop-off.
The Seahawks 5-worst games by defensive EPA
That’s “variance”: The Seahawks were an elite defense against bad offenses and they would only be considered “adequate” against good offenses IF their offense was able to consistently score 30 points. That was not the case. (Which is why I would most definitely focus the offseason on the offense.)
The number of Seahawks fans who won’t be able to stomach another 9 or 10-win season without being competitive in the playoffs* will only continue to grow UNLESS the Seahawks either win playoff games next year or they don’t come anywhere close to 10 wins.
*Teams that have won playoff games since Seattle’s last playoff win:
Bills, Rams, Bucs, Browns, Saints, Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers, Jaguars, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Texans, Lions, Moons
Did the Seahawks have a good defense? Compared to Pete Carroll’s last 5 years as the head coach, Macdonald already has a case for being Seattle’s best defensive coordinator since Dan Quinn in 2014.
But I still have to know:
What do 50 3-and-outs tell us about the defense?
How many of those came during Seattle’s 3-0 start?
How many involved an offensive penalty?
Are Seahawks close to locking down good offenses?
How many 3-and-outs did Seattle’s offense have?
After I accounted for all 50 three-and-outs one by one (which is what you’re going to read today after the paywall jump) these are the tentative answers to those questions:
Not much
16 (32% of the grand total)
13
Not really
39
A 3-and-out defensive drive doesn’t fit the definition of “ideal” (ideal would be a turnover) but it is great; the defense gets a rest and the offense gets the ball.
We just have to have the CONTEXT when we are examining any SEASON TOTALS and that’s why today’s post is an examination of all 50 of those drives by the Seahawks…Think of it like opening a deck of playing cards:
The pack contains 52 cards, but they aren’t equal.
50 three-and-outs by the Seahawks in 2024. What do they look like game-by-game and one-by-one? Let’s look: