Is DK Metcalf having a good season?

DK Metcalf is on pace for 1,500 yards and 21 penalties: Seaside Joe 2039

Leave it up to the Seattle Seahawks to finally unearth a 1,300-yard receiver only to realize that his overall value to the team on Sundays is at best a little bit questionable. Through four NFL weeks, DK Metcalf is third in the league in receiving yards and on pace for franchise records in both yards and receptions, yet the sixth-year Seahawk is also 73rd in receiving EPA.

Metcalf’s case for being either valuable or detrimental is unique and complicated, as no fans want to hear that one of the team’s most awesome players of all-time is also costing his team points and scoring opportunities because of inexcusable penalties and fumbles that could best be described as “lapses in concentration”.

Since 2019, no receiver is more penalized than DK Metcalf’s 31, including 10 holding penalties and 10 for pass interference.

Since 2019, Metcalf’s 8 fumbles is tied with Stefon Diggs for the third-most among receivers who don’t also return punts.

If aliens descend upon earth (or out of the ground?) and ask to see humanity’s greatest athlete, DK Metcalf will be no less than a nominee. So how it is possible that THIS guy…

How is that the strongest-looking receiver in the NFL has fumbled that many times? Or why does he need to grab a jersey in order to block for a touchdown run? Or what could ever compel a player who looks like that to need to get handsy before the ball arrives in order to make a catch?

Tyler Lockett is built like the polar opposite of Metcalf and he has the same number—eight fumbles—over 64 additional games. And I don’t know how to play football or anything, but I’m pretty sure that the 180 lb Lockett could at least stand in my way and do the job without drawing a holding penalty…Lockett’s only career holding penalty came in his FIRST career game back in 2015. His OPI on Monday night was his first since 2019.

Maybe the Seahawks just choose not to run to Lockett’s side that often because he is so undersized compared to some other players. But running near Metcalf could be even more detrimental because what’s the point if the play is just going to set you back another 10 yards anyway?

I’m just as confused as you might be when I say this but:

I can’t imagine how the Seahawks would have won three games already without Metcalf flexing his physical advantages over corners and safeties who are smaller/slower, yet I also don’t know if the Seahawks can invest a great deal into a player who has consistently proven that he lacks discipline and concentration in other key moments.

It’s impossible to ignore Metcalf when he’s screaming 71 yards down the field for an easy touchdown against the Dolphins.

It’s impossible to ignore Metcalf when your oldest friend taps you on the shoulder and tells you to “stop celebrating what the Seahawks just did” because “DK did something” and it’s coming back.

We went through the full gamut of DK Metcalf emotions in Monday’s loss to the Lions: 3 catches that gained at least 20 yards, at least a couple of additions to Metcalf’s best career highlights, and a ridiculously well executed two-point conversion that the NFL screwed up by ruling incomplete.

And a fumble that the Seahawks spent the entire rest of the game trying to make amends for, and his 13th penalty since the start of last season, all of which were of the 10 and 15-yard variety; by far the most of any offensive player on the Seahawks, including Anthony Bradford. I know Bradford was only a part-time player last season, but on 900 snaps he still has fewer penalties per snap than Metcalf.

Maybe the solution to Bradford’s penalties isn’t to bench him, but to make him a starting receiver.

This newsletter may so far seem heavily weighted towards DK’s negatives, but that’s only because I know none of you need to be convinced that DK has a lot of positives.

Through four games, Metcalf has 24 catches for 366 yards, which ranks third in the NFL behind only Nico Collins (full season pace of 2,078 yards, so he will eventually slow down) and Malik Nabers, and both of those playeers have been targeted significantly more times than Metcalf. Nabers is likely to get over 200 targets as a rookie because the New York Giants truly have nothing else to celebrate other than their first round pick.

(My theory is that Giants GM Joe Schoen figured that even if Nabers wouldn’t help the team make the playoffs, New York could at least do everything in their power to showcase Nabers as a superstar so that everyone might keep their jobs in 2025.)

Given that Ryan Grubb is coming from a situation in which he helped Washington Huskies receiver Rome Odunze gain 1,145 and 1,640 yards in his final two college seasons, I don’t find it outlandish to suggest that Metcalf’s early season pace (102 catches for 1,556 yards) is indicative of what he will have at the end of the year. These stats would set franchise records in both categories, breaking the 100-catch season by Lockett in 2020, and Metcalf’s own yardage record of 1,303 yards, which also happened in 2020.

Despite Steve Largent retiring as the NFL’s all-time leading receiver at the time, the Seahawks have never experienced anything like a 100-catch, 1,500-yard season by a receiver before and DK Metcalf has the ability and opportunity to make it a reality.

But will the Seahawks reward that season with a new $30 million annual salary contract given that the lapses in concentration are likely going to continue?

Maybe they will and maybe they should. Just in case you are forgetting what Metcalf’s five penalties and one fumble in four games this season has ended up costing the Seahawks offense, let me do a quick review.

Penalty #1: 1st-and-Goal, DEN6, Kenneth Walker TD (Metcalf: Holding)

Holding penalty on Metcalf takes a Walker touchdown off the board and the Seahawks eventually settle for a field goal, so this was a -4 point play. I don’t think fans would do themselves any favors to blame “poor officiating” or “ticky tack penalties” given that we’re not talking about a single play here: Metcalf is by far the MOST penalized receiver in the NFL and that’s been consistent for his entire six-year career.

Sometime last year when Metcalf was having a similar start to the 2023 season, I wrote that fans should stop expecting Metcalf to change. He’s not going to change. This is what he is, so either you’re okay with the penalties or you’re not, but nobody should expect the penalties to go away.

Penalty #2: 2nd-and-9, SEA39, Pass Complete to JSN (Metcalf: Holding)

Though the pass to JSN gained no yards, the Seahawks faced 2nd-and-19 instead of 3rd-and-9. The drive stalls after the penalty, Seattle punts, and Broncos come back to score touchdown, cutting lead to 26-20 and letting Denver have hope.

Penalty #3: 1st-and-10, SEA30, Pass Complete to JSN for 9 (Metcalf: OPI)

Offsetting penalties resets the play, but wipes a 9-yard gain off the board. In addition, the facemask on Christian Gonzalez would have given the Seahawks first-and-10 in Patriots territory instead of replaying first down at their own 30. That’s how big of a swing this OPI was and instead of that they punt the ball back to the Patriots a few plays later without picking up a first down.

Seattle should have blown out the Patriots (New England has lost by a combined 54-16 since Week 2), but they went to overtime. That’s hardly Metcalf’s fault, and he scored that wide open 56-yard touchdown, but I think this is just one example of how the Seahawks lack of discipline has kept the team from playing up to their full potential so far.

Penalty #4: 2nd-and-11, SEA9, Pass Complete to DK (Metcalf: OPI)

Seahawks set back to their own 5, with 2nd-and-15. Geno Smith intercepted two plays later, giving Dolphins first-and-Goal from the 6. Miami settled for a field goal, their only points of the game. I can’t really say how much different this drive would have gone with or without the penalty.

Penalty #5: 2nd-and-2, DET38, Charbonnet Run 3 yards (Metcalf: Holding)

Down 35-27 in the fourth quarter, Seahawks get a first down negated by Metcalf penalty. Would have been first-and-10 from the DET35 instead of 2nd-and-9 from the DET45. Seahawks don’t end up getting a first down, punt ball back to Lions, give up another touchdown and lose 42-29.

Fumble #1: 1st-and-10, DET48, Metcalf 11-yard REC (Fumble returned 49 yards)

You can’t be mad at Metcalf at fighting for extra yards, but when only two receivers in the NFL have more fumbles than him over the past 5+ seasons, it brings up the question of whether or not Metcalf knows how to appropriately protect the football. As the strongest-looking receiver in the NFL. “Hey, I’m going to fight for extra yards.” Great. Tuck that football like your life depends on it because “ball security is job security”.

Is DK Metcalf having a good season?

That’s a complicated question to answer, but it’s easier to make the argument that Metcalf is doing good than the counterpoint because the perceptive value of “stats” like EPA is not something that everyone’s going to embrace.

Another receiver having a complicated season is CeeDee Lamb, as he is eighth in receiving yards (316) but 92nd in EPA (+0.6).

In fact, Metcalf still has a better EPA than Rashid Shaheed, Brandon Aiyuk, Drake London, Deebo Samuel, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, Christian Kirk, Mike Evans, Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Lockett, Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Cooper Kupp, Odunze, D.J. Moore, Michael Pittman, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, and dozens upon dozens of other players.

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So it’s not as though Metcalf is this outlier of a receiver who gets overrated because of receiving yards when it could be argued that the full body of work he’s actually responsible for is at times doing more harm than good. We could say the same for many of the NFL’s star receivers after only four games.

I would say that DK Metcalf IS having a good season, in part because Ryan Grubb is compelled to build an offense that takes advantage of his unique skillset and will continue to do so for the next 13 games.

But I would also say that even if Metcalf finishes with more catches, yards, and touchdowns than an elite receiver such as Justin Jefferson, it will not make him an elite receiver.

Jefferson has caught 20 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns this season, putting him slightly behind Metcalf. Like Metcalf, he also got a good chunk of his yards on just a couple of plays (97 yards and 44 yards) and Jefferson’s not going to be able to win every route. However, Jefferson’s illegal shift penalty in Week 1 was his first penalty since a false start that happened almost two years ago. Both were 5 yards and the most recent one was declined.

Whereas Jefferson has been blamed for 17 drops since 2020, Metcalf’s unofficial tally is 35 drops since 2019. Jefferson has three career fumbles to Metcalf’s eight.

Both were born as human beings who would be physically capable of being the best receiver in the NFL. Only one of the two has shown to discipline to actually be the best receiver in the NFL. What’s that going to cost the next team that gives DK Metcalf a new NFL contract?

As I’ve been writing, Metcalf will want a new contract after this season and if the dust settles as “100 catches, 1,500 yards”, I can guarantee you that points like the ones brought up in this article (“How much harm do DK’s mistakes actually create?”) will become completely forgotten and meaningless. The only points in negotiations will be “look at how many yards he had” and “look at how gorgeous it is when DK Metcalf gets the ball” because it is so pretty when he does.

1,500 receiving yards for a 28-year-old receiver will cost a team over $32 million per season. Will that team be the Seahawks?

The prospect of losing Metcalf over money is potentially still scarier than the idea of overpaying for a receiver who is going down as one of the most entertaining players to watch in Seattle Seahawks history.