The scary retirement trend that Seahawks should consider before draft
Are Seahawks prepared in case an early offensive lineman retirement happens?
If your doctor told you that there was a 5% chance that your skin would fall off in a couple of years, that protective layer of dermis and whatnot, but you had to hand over a year’s worth of salary to insure against this nightmare, would you pay up or take the risk?
Well, the Seahawks have a protective layer on their football team called the offensive line and though their tackles are young and talented is there a chance of either of them “falling off” in a couple of years? The NFL’s latest early retirement of a starting offensive lineman could compel John Schneider to insure football’s most important position group with another first round pick.
Battle Ground, Washington native Kaleb McGary announced his retirement on Wednesday after having never played an NFL game during his 30s.
McGary signed a two-year, $30 million extension last August, less than a month before he suffered a leg injury in practice that has ended his career.
A month ago, 27-year-old center Drew Dalman retired just a year after signing a three-year, $42 million contract with the Bears. Contrary to McGary’s obvious health issue, Dalman played every snap last season. Dalman seems to have retired because he doesn’t want to have any future health problems.
The most obvious health issue at hand for offensive linemen is that many of them would not choose to be overweight if it wasn’t for their job.
“These offensive and defensive linemen typically have body-mass indexes that exceed 30,” said Dr. David Geier, a board member of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine. “Essentially, many of them are what we consider obese, which is bad for your overall health for a lot of medical reasons.”
It’s easy to look at a weight of 270 pounds and think, “These players haven’t really lost many pounds.” But many forget, these are massive, big-boned humans. The 50th percentile (average) height and weight of an offensive tackle is 6-foot-5, 314 pounds, according to data from The Scouting Academy. The average height for an American male, according to the Centers for Disease Control, is 5-foot-9. The average weight is 195.5 pounds.
Even if Abe Lucas is never going to weigh under 200 lbs on his frame, a healthier lifestyle might come in under 250 lbs.
Some offensive linemen lose a lot of weight after they retire, like Steve Hutchinson for example, whereas some others struggle. It is still not healthy to have been obese for ten years. Grey Zabel’s frame as a pitcher compared to his body type as a 317 lbs guard is a stark difference in lifestyles:
We tend to focus a lot on the dangers of CTE by banging helmets in the trenches, and for good reason, but a simpler explanation for why offensive and defensive linemen have heightened health concerns is that they’re intentionally carrying far more weight than most people.
The media criticizes centers who weigh 290 lbs and celebrate tackles who can run a 5-second 40 at 340 lbs.
(And yet Aaron Donald, the greatest defensive tackle of the century, says that his playing weight was around 260 lbs.)
Lucas, Zabel, and Charles Cross are listed around the NFL average of 315, whereas Anthony Bradford is listed at a perhaps-generous 335.
Other retirements
Many Seahawks fans wanted the team to sign Dalman or Ryan Kelly in free agency last year, but now both are retired. Kelly called it a career last month too, although he’s 32 and more clearly dealing with health issues.
Another center, Bradley Bozeman, retired in February despite starting all but one game since 2019.
A year ago, Lions Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow surprised everyone by announcing his retirement at age 29 while still considered a top-3 player at the position, citing health issues, both present and future.
When Ragnow attempted to return to the Lions during the season, he failed the physical.
Back in 2022, there was a similar story when Ali Marpet retired at 28 despite coming off of the best season of his career and he too walked away from millions of dollars. Marpet lost 65 lbs after he retired and now looks like this but says he still has the same appetite:
On a smaller, more expected scale, Rams right tackle Rob Havenstein retired, as did veteran backups Will Clapp and Dan Skipper. Had these players been veteran quarterbacks or receivers or cornerbacks would they have walked away from another potential 1-3 years of being on an NFL roster at these ages?
Josh Johnson never really “plays” in the NFL, but the 39-year-old quarterback just signed with the Bengals. Because why not?
So when I look at the Seahawks offensive line, I see at least five more years of stability at three of five positions, if not four. But that’s because I’m using my “normal expectations brain” for a general football player’s career span instead of the more complicated calculation of health concerns for offensive linemen.
Abe Lucas is 27 and he turns 28 in October.
Who am I to say that Lucas is going to play in the NFL when he’s 30?
“Chronic” knee issues nearly ended Lucas’s career between 2023-2024
A healthy weight for a 6’6 male is considered to be 75+ lbs below his listed playing weight and he’s carrying it on a past knee injury (tackles are at the highest risk for knee injuries due to a higher BMI)
Lucas has made $12.8 million to date and if he plays through 2026 he’ll earn another $7.5 million
He’ll be 29 during the 2027 season, around the age many of these surprise retirements have come when linemen says it’s not worth it anymore
A study by The American Medical Society for Sports Medicine found that offensive linemen had a “significantly higher number” of undiagnosed concussions than any other position:
Significant differences were found between position groups in the frequencies of several postimpact symptoms, including dizziness (p<0.001), headache (p<0.001), and seeing stars (p<0.001) during the 2012 football season, with offensive linemen reporting significantly more symptoms compared to most other groups.
So yes, in addition to health concerns related to being overweight, as well as being at a higher risk of knee cartilage and osteoarthritis due to the squatting position and blocking movements, of course offensive linemen also have to worry about the constant “microconcussions” from banging helmets on every play.
Former Washington Husky and NFL first round pick at guard Curt Marsh, who retired at 28, cited 30 surgeries (including a leg amputation below the knee) in a 2006 interview with The Seattle Times:
“It’s like I’m the poster child for injured players,” Marsh says.
HE’S NOT ALONE. Offensive linemen know the averages — careers lasting less than four years, almost all in anonymity, lives lucky to extend past 60, salaries among the lowest in professional sports.
In this recent interview, the very first words of Marsh’s mouth as he opens the front door: “That’s me ‘running’ to the door.”
So if I’m Abe Lucas, if you’re Abe Lucas, can we put ourselves into his shoes today and see the reasoning behind a consideration that “Hell, if I get through one more season and collect another $7.5 million, is that worth cashing out with my health?”
Although Lucas signed a three-year extension in 2025, that’s no different than the now-retired/younger/healthier Dalman.
And if Lucas gets through 2027, that’s another $14 million that he will earn.
NFL players used to sacrifice their bodies for six figures. Now they’re practically incentivized to retire early because now they’re sacrificing their bodies AFTER they’ve made $20 or $30 or $50 million. Even after taxes and all that, couldn’t a player reasonably expect to live off of the take home pay from $20 million?
If we put ourselves into John Schneider or Mike Macdonald's shoes, I’m also asking myself, “Am I totally sure that I have Sam Darnold’s left and right side protected for the next three years?”
Should Seahawks draft an offensive linemen first?
During Wednesday’s article on whether the 2026 class was “boring enough” at pick 32 for the Seahawks to consider taking Ty Simpson, I didn’t get into the offensive tackles who could be available.
There is a potential wealth of options in this range as it is a relatively loaded position group on the NFLMockDraftDatabase consensus big board:
If the 6’7 Kadyn Proctor (praised for being a “good athlete” at 352 lbs) makes it to pick 25 or so, is it a serious consideration to get a player like that added to the roster and letting John Benton develop his pass protection issues that might cause him to slide to Seattle’s range?
Then in 2027, whether Lucas is good to go again or not, Proctor could have a role as a right tackle or one of them could move inside to guard.
At a time when we’re debating the merits of drafting 24-year-old prospects because they’re staying 6-7 years in college, Proctor doesn’t even turn 21 until June. He has also been playing for Ryan Grubb and Schneider clear has some affinity for Grubb and Kalen DeBoer’s offensive system.
Is this a better play with their first round pick than a running back or a cornerback, positions you can probably address much later and still win?
Abe L-Bodied
I don’t intend to start any hysteria over a scenario that by all accounts on our end is not happening. We don’t have any reason to apply the retirements of Dalman, McGary, and Ragnow to Lucas or other Seahawks offensive linemen just because they play the same position.
It could happen to them, but it won’t happen to most offensive linemen. By all accounts, the majority of offensive linemen are still retiring after they’ve basically left it all on the field and will carry that burden with them for the rest of their lives in varying capacities, the outliers of which are a lifetime of surgeries.
(But the norm of which still seems to be painful and burdensome.)
The Seahawks could currently have 80-100% of their starting offensive line for the next four years already on the roster now.
Is the 32nd overall pick in the draft too valuable to use as insurance against the possibility that the team’s protective layer will fall off before anyone was prepared to lose their skin?