Seahawks top-48 big board!!!
Seaside Joe 1143: Surprises! Shockers! Sleepers! Decisions!
Creating a big board for the Seattle Seahawks this year has been much more difficult than I anticipated. Thankfully, the exercise itself of working the board over and over again—with major changes and re-thinks at every turn—has helped me better define the directions that I believe Pete Carroll and John Schneider will go next Thursday-Saturday in the 2022 NFL Draft.
That doesn’t mean that anyone knows what the hell is going to happen next Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
A team’s number one job in the draft is the most obvious, which is to scout the hell out of these prospects and to make your best guesses as to which of them will provide your team THE MOST VALUE in the future. It may be a long-term future, like say picking Tyler Linderbaum and expecting him to be a starter on your team for 12 years. It may be a short-term future, such as picking Breece Hall and giving him all the resources at your disposal to turn him into an All-Pro for three or four years. Decisions like that are one of many debates that the Seahawks front office has to have behind-the-scenes for all of draft season.
And a team’s number two job is to keep those secrets behind the scenes. I don’t know what’s smoke and what’s real. Pete’s entire M.O. as chairman of the Seahawks has been to shock the hell out of the NFL world with every early pick he’s had, even if those surprises come after a predictable trade down for more picks.
I’ve been saying from the beginning that Bernhard Raimann is the player who most fits the Pete Carroll model, the current team needs, and the positional value of a top-25 pick for Seattle. But if we can assume that Raimann is the guy, then is he the guy? Trading Russell Wilson wasn’t exactly surprising, but it was shocking.
Pete’s been on his grind since the Wilson trade by pounding home that he’s not going to change his ways for anybody, not even Russ, and so we should not expect these early picks to go so far against the grain as selecting a quarterback in the top-10 (when there isn’t even a quarterback being given a first round grade) or choosing a cornerback early unless he’s an absolute fucking steal—which we could see this year.
This is the value that I see on the board right now for Seattle’s needs, the positional importance for each one of them in relation to how much importance Pete has placed on those positions in the past, and the class itself.
I do not see much value in the top-10 or top-15 of this draft, but I see a LOT of value on day two, and that’s why a trade down is practically a guarantee unless there simply isn’t another team willing to move up to nine.
That’s also why my top-40 big board has stretch out to a top-48! I had to keep going just to get a few more important names out there with one week until the draft.
I’ve been promising extra Big Board access to premium Regular Joes subscribers at the $5/month level and I’m going to stick to my word. But if you’re a free subscriber, don’t fret, I’ll be releasing all the information before next week’s first round and today’s top-30 is for EVERYONE to see.
I will also be doing a live NFL Draft streaming event next Friday with Mookie Alexander of Field Gulls, so stay tuned for more information on that.
If you want to help support Seaside Joe, by all means hit the Subscribe button and I appreciate you. I’m just as gratefu if you share this post with other Seahawks fans you know to get the word out there about the intense QUANTITY of coverage at this newsletter. In the meantime, I’ll continue to do my part to improve the QUALITY.
If you’re having trouble reading this on mobile, I apologize for that and will work to fix that. I’ve tested it myself and was able to read everything but if that is NOT the experience you have, please let me know!
Seahawks 2022 Top-48 Big Board (4/21/2022)
Even though this is a list of eight names that the Seahawks might have in their top-eight, I actually don’t think that Pete Carroll would stick-and-pick for anyone less than Sauce Gardner. My belief is that anyone ranked Ickey or lower would result in an intense effort to trade down and so even if Walker is there at nine, Seattle would probably rather leverage the “heat” on him for a better trade package if a team like the Texans, Ravens, or Eagles was willing to move up for a defensive lineman.
Then the Seahawks could still probably pick one of their “top-eight prospects” like Raimann by moving down as many as 10-15 spots in the first round. As soon as the Seahawks traded Russell Wilson, I said, “Raimann-Raimann-Raimann!!!” and that was when most people were projecting him for mid-round two, and many said he would go in round three. Now I’m seeing not only many Seattle fans mocking Raimann to the Seahawks in round one, I’m also seeing the national writers/analysts plugging him to a team on day one all the time.
Travon Walker interests me less and less as the draft draws closer, he’s the guy getting top-5 love who I could see falling out of the top-10, not Kayvon Thibodeaux.
I understand why people would hate seeing Kyle Hamilton this high for the Seahawks, but I think we’re getting to the point now where maybe the best player in this draft is being treated like the next Mark Barron. That’s not what Hamilton is and the better comparison as a draft pick would be Derwin James, a safety who everyone agreed had top-three talent… and then look at what he’s done in the NFL. Setting position aside, Hamilton could do what Pete Carroll wants most: neutralize George Kittle, create turnovers, end the nightmare that is Seattle’s pass defense in the middle of the field.
Yes, I guess I’m starting to go all-in as Sam Howell being the Seahawks’ favorite QB in this class. That doesn’t mean he’ll be a first round pick. Many people still have Howell as QB5 in this class and if the NFL feels that way, perhaps the Seahawks get him in the second round, even after trading down. Ultimately, I would say there’s a 65/35 chance that Seattle doesn’t pick a QB before round 4.
The Seahawks met with Boye Mafe and while that’s not necessarily an indication of being this high on him, it’s not smoke. He’s got all the tools Pete wants in an edge player and he might have a higher ceiling than Jermaine Johnson, if not one of the highest in this entire draft class. Mafe is projected in the 25-45 range, but so was Bruce Irvin in 2012.
Don’t forget to deliver me your comments and thoughts on the big board!
Seattle met with Sauce Gardner in the process and that makes sense to me, just as it made sense to meet with all of Cincinnati’s draft prospects of note. (They also met with Desmond Ridder.) However, I see this CB class being deep enough for Seattle to select on one day two, in either round.
The Seahawks want a wide receiver out of this draft class. He might be a day three receiver, but they want one with special upside which is why they met with Christian Watson. However, look at what Jahan Dotson could do for this team in 2-3 years: slide into the Tyler Lockett role by the time he’s over 30 and really expensive. Lockett took a few years to adjust to the NFL level, why not let Dotson work behind Lockett for a couple of seasons?
Tyler Smith is another pre-draft riser and someone that a few draft analysts LOVE.
I have Drake London high on my personal board, but lower for the Seahawks’ receiver plans unless there actually is a DK Metcalf trade on the horizon. (There isn’t.)
David Ojabo has “Seahawks” all over him and the torn Achilles could be what pushes him to Seattle’s pick at 40—they might not hesitate to pick him there and then bring him along for a December debut.
I think Kaiir Elam is super underrated now. Skyy Moore is a player who has gone from day three to potentially the end of the first round… I think he’s higher for most teams than Watson. He might be higher than Chris Olave. If what your team needs is a slot with outside potential, he could be higher than London.
Free subscribers: I’ve got 16 more draft prospects ranked after the paywall. Unfortunately, Substack doesn’t allow me the chance to open comments up for everyone on a subscriber-only post. If it were up to me, that would NEVER be the case! I will open up comments to everyone in a separate post coming soon… I apologize for this, I just wanna fulfill my promise to Regular Joes on the Big Board. Thank you to you ALL.