Seattle's recent draft classes have been below average but not by as much as most casual football fans seem to think. Drafting young guys is an enigma for every team. If you hit on one out of three, that's par. If you land one real impact player in a class, you're golden. We only had three picks last year and none were particularly high, so it wouldn't be surprising if we yield nothing from it. I think we did unusually well in 2020. You didn't mention Damien Lewis. He was a pleasant surprise from day one.
So many of our unsuccessful or yet-to-be-determined draft picks have had careers delayed and/or derailed by early career injuries. There's a luck component to drafting and also to avoiding injuries, and they could certainly be related. Could Penny have been one of the best RBs in the league for 3 years straight? Could Blair have erased the thought of ever trading for Adams? Could Tre Brown and Eskridge been undisputed starters this year. Could McDowell have been anything? Is our bad luck greater than other teams' bad luck? Is there a NFL conditioning lesson to be learned from all this, or just dumb luck?
That's true but not at all unique to Seattle. Part of the mix of luck and skill that goes into drafting guys. I think the mistake Seattle made was in failing to keep an eye out for the consensus in valuating kids. If you like a guy like Penny, great. But don't take him in the first round when everyone else has him going in the third or fourth. Sure, you take a risk that he'll be gone. That happens but so what. Who's to say you're right about a particular kid or that he won't escape injury.
This year, we finally drafted guys near or above their expected notch. Provides a lot more opportunities for things to break your way. Don't ever draft a projected third rounder with a lower-tier first round pick. Not unless you have a true crystal ball and it's not foggy. Sneider and Carroll got arrogant in thinking they could find the next Chancellor, the next Sherman by focusing only on their own metrics. No way. No matter how great you may be at evaluating talent, there are too many unknowns. Like at the blackjack table in Vegas, you've got to make smart bets that maximize your chances of looking wise when evaluating a class with 20/20 hindsight.
Point taken on how terrible a lot of our drafts were, but not accounting for players we have signed in exchange for draft picks seems a little misleading. Jamal is the most obvious one of course, but there are presumably others? I hope?
Not at all! Only to the likes of me, who failed to take into account the other part of roster management when looking at how abysmal the record looks in the middle 10’s. Would the Rams draft record look equally as bad in isolation given that they seem to trade for everyone? Probably not, but they probably aren’t light years ahead in drafted talent.
Want to make sure my reporting is fair. I agree that the Seahawks used some important draft capital on Jamal Adams. Here, wanted to focus on players who the Seahawks actually used their draft scouting/development resources on.
The flip side of this being the opportunity costs of acquiring Adams, Duane Brown, and Sheldon Richardson. They had to give up future high picks because of poor drafts.
They didn't really cover it up, it's more that nobody really challenged them on it. The Seattle media has been more intent on putting out puff pieces than critical thought.
"I am sure you were a great lady. RIP." < this got me good.
I've been watching our dumpster fire drafts and wondering if those amazing early PCJS drafts were primarily down to Scott McLaughlin's eye for talent? Seems like our good drafts coincided with his time in our front office/scouting dept.
There's little doubt that McLoughlan has talent in his field. But it's impossible to quantify that value of any one person or any one decision. What's important to note is that NOBODY has a super power when it comes to drafting. If there were any elite scouts, we would know about them. They'd be as big of a star as Tom Brady. They'd be a GM. It's that simple. At the end of the day, there's two things you can never forget:
- LUCK is involved. Seattle got some good luck, then they got some bad luck
- Picking in the top-10 or top-20 is a LOT better than picking in the very late first or second round. The odds of finding more Shermans and Kams have always been low. That's why they're Sherman and Kam.
But yes, the Seahawks have probably had some of the worst draft classes of the 2010s after 2012. That's undeniable.
Plus, once the Seahawks won a Super Bowl with 6’2 LCB, there was no chance of ever finding another Sherman in the 5th round. Kam was a unicorn—a 6’3” battering ram of a SS who could play run and pass defense. All props to the Hawks for spotting what he could be, but no one can plan on finding another Kam..
I don’t blame Newton for this one. Not even Tom Brady would expect a SS to jump a route on his own 10.
The magic was in finding all those unicorns at the same time. That would be close to a miracle if we could see that tight of a brotherhood on the team again.
Kind of reminds me of an old Peter, Paul and Mary song; “Where have all the flowers gone…”. Teams spend all year deciding who they’re going to draft, who is going to make them a better team, take them to the Super Bowl. Did the Seahawks paint themselves into a corner with poor draft evaluation causing them to have to trade their star quarterback so they could try build another contender
Seattle's recent draft classes have been below average but not by as much as most casual football fans seem to think. Drafting young guys is an enigma for every team. If you hit on one out of three, that's par. If you land one real impact player in a class, you're golden. We only had three picks last year and none were particularly high, so it wouldn't be surprising if we yield nothing from it. I think we did unusually well in 2020. You didn't mention Damien Lewis. He was a pleasant surprise from day one.
So many of our unsuccessful or yet-to-be-determined draft picks have had careers delayed and/or derailed by early career injuries. There's a luck component to drafting and also to avoiding injuries, and they could certainly be related. Could Penny have been one of the best RBs in the league for 3 years straight? Could Blair have erased the thought of ever trading for Adams? Could Tre Brown and Eskridge been undisputed starters this year. Could McDowell have been anything? Is our bad luck greater than other teams' bad luck? Is there a NFL conditioning lesson to be learned from all this, or just dumb luck?
That's true but not at all unique to Seattle. Part of the mix of luck and skill that goes into drafting guys. I think the mistake Seattle made was in failing to keep an eye out for the consensus in valuating kids. If you like a guy like Penny, great. But don't take him in the first round when everyone else has him going in the third or fourth. Sure, you take a risk that he'll be gone. That happens but so what. Who's to say you're right about a particular kid or that he won't escape injury.
This year, we finally drafted guys near or above their expected notch. Provides a lot more opportunities for things to break your way. Don't ever draft a projected third rounder with a lower-tier first round pick. Not unless you have a true crystal ball and it's not foggy. Sneider and Carroll got arrogant in thinking they could find the next Chancellor, the next Sherman by focusing only on their own metrics. No way. No matter how great you may be at evaluating talent, there are too many unknowns. Like at the blackjack table in Vegas, you've got to make smart bets that maximize your chances of looking wise when evaluating a class with 20/20 hindsight.
Point taken on how terrible a lot of our drafts were, but not accounting for players we have signed in exchange for draft picks seems a little misleading. Jamal is the most obvious one of course, but there are presumably others? I hope?
Is it your belief that I was intending to mislead everybody?
Not at all! Only to the likes of me, who failed to take into account the other part of roster management when looking at how abysmal the record looks in the middle 10’s. Would the Rams draft record look equally as bad in isolation given that they seem to trade for everyone? Probably not, but they probably aren’t light years ahead in drafted talent.
Want to make sure my reporting is fair. I agree that the Seahawks used some important draft capital on Jamal Adams. Here, wanted to focus on players who the Seahawks actually used their draft scouting/development resources on.
The flip side of this being the opportunity costs of acquiring Adams, Duane Brown, and Sheldon Richardson. They had to give up future high picks because of poor drafts.
Awesome read.
There definitely needs to be more accountability by PCJS - they whiffed a lot and somehow covered it up.
This season will be interesting
They didn't really cover it up, it's more that nobody really challenged them on it. The Seattle media has been more intent on putting out puff pieces than critical thought.
"I am sure you were a great lady. RIP." < this got me good.
I've been watching our dumpster fire drafts and wondering if those amazing early PCJS drafts were primarily down to Scott McLaughlin's eye for talent? Seems like our good drafts coincided with his time in our front office/scouting dept.
There's little doubt that McLoughlan has talent in his field. But it's impossible to quantify that value of any one person or any one decision. What's important to note is that NOBODY has a super power when it comes to drafting. If there were any elite scouts, we would know about them. They'd be as big of a star as Tom Brady. They'd be a GM. It's that simple. At the end of the day, there's two things you can never forget:
- LUCK is involved. Seattle got some good luck, then they got some bad luck
- Picking in the top-10 or top-20 is a LOT better than picking in the very late first or second round. The odds of finding more Shermans and Kams have always been low. That's why they're Sherman and Kam.
But yes, the Seahawks have probably had some of the worst draft classes of the 2010s after 2012. That's undeniable.
Plus, once the Seahawks won a Super Bowl with 6’2 LCB, there was no chance of ever finding another Sherman in the 5th round. Kam was a unicorn—a 6’3” battering ram of a SS who could play run and pass defense. All props to the Hawks for spotting what he could be, but no one can plan on finding another Kam..
I don’t blame Newton for this one. Not even Tom Brady would expect a SS to jump a route on his own 10.
https://youtu.be/z7qcnIu9L9Y
The magic was in finding all those unicorns at the same time. That would be close to a miracle if we could see that tight of a brotherhood on the team again.
Metcalf would have run him down...lol
For a period, the draft class doesnt seems that good, I'm wondering how it compare to other good teams like the rams or packers?
At the time I am spread very thin. Would be interesting if anyone else wanted to share that research.
Kind of reminds me of an old Peter, Paul and Mary song; “Where have all the flowers gone…”. Teams spend all year deciding who they’re going to draft, who is going to make them a better team, take them to the Super Bowl. Did the Seahawks paint themselves into a corner with poor draft evaluation causing them to have to trade their star quarterback so they could try build another contender
“the concept of a “franchise” is much more like an organism than it is like a book!”
True in the college ranks also; you probably could name Quarterback U, Linebacker U, etc.