Where have all the QBs gone?
Have we lost confidence in predicting future QB stars?
Do you want to hear about the 2026 NFL Draft and what the Seahawks should do when we get there? According to early polling results from Saturday’s fan survey for fans of surveys — not too late to get your answers in ! — at least one-third of you definitely do and over 50% voted at least a 3 out of 5.
That brings me to one question:
Assuming that Jalen Milroe doesn’t make the decision easy by getting an opportunity and earning the seat as heir apparent starting quarterback, should the Seahawks bring John Mateer home by drafting him in 2026?
Many of you are saying “Who?” right now and that’s fair. It’s probably fair with most of the potential first round quarterbacks in the 2026 draft because that list is very, very long. And not necessarily because the class is loaded.
It could just be that in the era of the transfer portal and paying college football players that developing passers and projecting them for the NFL is as hard as it has ever been. Mateer could be the next Jayden Daniels or Cam Ward, vaulting from an afterthought prospect to being the number one or number two overall pick in next year’s draft after he transferred from Washington State to Oklahoma this offseason.
And Mateer should know…
He and Ward were both recruited to Washington State in the same year:
Washington State picked up a commitment from an intriguing quarterback prospect out of Texas who had been underrecruited despite recording impressive numbers in the state’s top classification of prep play.
John Mateer, a record-breaker at Class 6A Little Elm High, announced over Twitter on Monday that he has pledged to WSU.
—
He didn’t attract much Division I interest. Mateer’s first Power Five offer came from WSU on Jan. 14. The Cougars hosted him on an official visit last weekend, just days after the two-star prospect had decommitted from Central Arkansas.
Mateer is WSU’s second quarterback recruit of its 2022 class, joining Incarnate Word transfer Cameron Ward – the program’s expected starter next season.
Now coming off of a debut season in which he threw for 29 touchdowns and rushed for 15 more after replacing Ward as WSU’s starting QB, Mateer could next follow Ward’s footsteps by catapulting his stock into a top-3 draft pick after leaving the Cougars; Ward threw 39 touchdowns for Miami last season and was named as a consensus All-American, accolades not often afforded to players in Pullman, Washington.
Ward was well out of Seattle’s range in this year’s draft — he went 17 picks ahead of the Seahawks — but the 2026 class might have more to offer at quarterback than 2025, which means that maybe a mid-to-late first round pick will be enough for a decent prospect at the position. Including, but certainly not limited to, John Mateer.
Mateer would just be a compelling fit for any WSU/Seahawk fans and he’s squarely in the “I don’t know what’s going to happen” mix for a QB class that has ZERO CONSENSUS … other than to say that everybody knows Arch Manning, but does not necessarily know that he’s great or if he’ll declare for the draft.
The NFL Stock Exchange podcast shared two top-15 QB rankings for the 2026 class and Manning was the ONLY quarterback to have the same poll position on both lists:
Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers both have Manning at #1 despite him only making two starts in two seasons and padding his stats against competition that is far outmatched by the Texas roster. I don’t have to tell you why Manning is so hyped — and the expectations could be warranted — but it also says something that the consensus “next great NFL quarterback” is not someone who has earned it in college yet…
It’s someone who is quite literally thriving thanks to his name, image, and likeness!
That’s college football in 2025 for you.
Arch Manning also wouldn’t be such an easy pick for 2026’s top prospect if not for the fact that no other quarterback has played so well as to get us excited for the next class. There’s no Matthew Stafford, Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence, or Caleb Williams in the pipeline that we know of right now. There could be a Cam Newton or a Cam Ward, someone who will save his best for his last college season, but nobody that draft analysts seem confident to hang their hat on just yet.
Here are a few example of why not:
Drew Allar, Penn State
Although he is Trevor’s number two, he’s only number four for Connor. Allar could have entered the 2025 draft but chose to go back to school despite a clear indication that he could be QB2 in a “weak” class. Is that a red flag or a smart move?
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
While Allar is barely 21 and going back for a fourth season, Nussmeier will be 24 when he goes to the 2026 combine and he’s returning for a fifth year. Experience isn’t a bad thing (Daniels, Joe Burrow saw their stocks explode with a senior season at LSU) but could indicate that NFL teams need to see a lot more from him. During one five-game midseason stretch, Nussmeier had 8 TD/9 INT and not all against good teams.
For a QB who is top-3 on both lists, that’s a surprise.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
PFF called Klubnik the most improved QB in college football. It’s another way of saying that Klubnik — the top QB recruit in 2022 — was really bad the season before. Most drafts do not produce more than two, at best three, starting NFL quarterbacks. Klubnik is third on one list, but fifth on the other, which I only bring up to emphasize that even as low as QB5 we could be talking about players who end up as day three picks or undrafted free agents.
While another top recruit/Clemson star — Trevor Lawrence — could afford a mediocre junior season and still be the number one pick of the draft, Klubnik highlights just how far away we are from recent drafts when it felt easy to point to a consensus “tank for this guy” quarterback prospect.
If “two starts” Arch Manning is the quarterback you tank for, then there clearly isn’t a quarterback that teams should get their hopes up for in 2026 — YET
Sam Leavitt, ASU
Here’s the quarterback who really highlights the extreme disparity of draft opinions right now:
Trevor’s QB4
Connor’s QB11
Leavitt has only played one season as a starter but it was an ideal scenario in that he helped lead Arizona State to their best year since 1996. Leavitt — a Pacific Northwest native who was the Oregon Class 6A player of the year — is praised for protecting the football and being an ideal fit in a spread offense. However, he could also be the type who most of us will have forgotten about by November and he never makes the NFL.
If you split the difference between 4 and 11, that’s only a borderline draftable quarterback.
Just ask Carson Beck…
A year ago, Beck was considered one of the favorites to be the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Instead, he had 20 turnover worthy plays for Georgia and transferred to Miami (to replace Ward) rather than declare for the draft.
And yet because analysts probably feel burned by how many times they’ve been wrong lately due to transfers propelling prospects to new heights, Beck is actually considered a potential riser in the 2026 draft class. This will be Beck’s SIXTH year of college football.
He now has a chance to revive his stock at Miami, which just produced the No. 1 pick in April's draft in Cameron Ward. Beck is a rhythmic passer who plays well when he gets into an early groove. He gets the ball out in a hurry and is a true distributor who can spread the ball around the field.
“And the rest…”
Truly any of these prospects or Manning or Mateer could end up being the top quarterback in the 2026 draft, but don’t forget:
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Nico Iamaleava, UCLA (transfer)
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Taylen Green, Arkansas
Miller Moss, Louisville (transfer)
And more. Jayden Daniels and Cam Ward made tremendous strides in their final season and would have probably been on the “and the rest…” list at the same time of year. ESPN’s Matt Miller highlighted Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson as a sleeper in the 2026 class.
"If you want a dude that's going to come out of nowhere, it's [Robertson]. He's what everyone wants [Penn State's] Drew Allar to be," said an AFC South area scout who covers the Southwest. "Big, big arm, and he can move."
There’s that old saying that if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. Well, what if you have 15 quarterbacks?
Will this actually impact the Seahawks at all?
John Schneider made only his third career quarterback draft selection when Milroe was picked in the third round this year. Is it way too soon to expect a fourth in 2026?
I don’t think so.
If anything, Seattle’s choice to draft or not draft a quarterback early-ish in 2026 will hinge far more on the performance of Sam Darnold than anything we are likely to see from Milroe. If Darnold sinks his prove-it shot and locks himself in as the Seahawks quarterback for at least a couple of more years after 2025, then why not leave it alone and let Milroe continue to develop his throwing mechanics somewhere in the background?
It should only become apparent that Seattle has a quarterback problem if Darnold struggles or gets seriously injured.
That’s the only way to find out this year if Milroe is a draft steal or a tremendous athlete who can’t pass the ball well enough to stick behind center.
Well, Sam Darnold very well could struggle…
It’s happened (several times) before and we know that it could happen again. If that happens, it is unlikely that Drew Lock would alleviate any long-term concerns with the position and improbable that Milroe will give Seahawks fans the same confidence that Ravens fans had with Lamar Jackson in 2018 or Eagles fans and Jalen Hurts in 2020.
Maybe Hurts is within earshot of Milroe’s potential, but he also had such great advantages on the offensive line that it is hard to assume that the situations will mirror each other.
Should the Seahawks draft a first round quarterback in 2026?
We can’t know the answer to that question right now. But if you think that they might and you want to know which quarterback is the best fit, I recommend that you start doing your homework yesterday.
Seaside Joe 2295
It’s way too early for me to focus on the 26 draft. I will stay focused on our pro game until after our Super Bowl win ;) But off the cuff, Lock is a top 10 backup QB and he’s on the team for 25 AND 26. Our starting QB (Darnold) is under contract through 27. If he looks as good as he was in 24 with the Vikings, I would be emphatically against taking a college QB on day 1 or day 2 of the draft in 26. I’d be fine on day 3. If Darnold’s performance is significantly worse than his 24 season, I’d be more inclined to take a QB in day 1 or 2 to compete with Milroe as our QB of the future.
This being said, I loved the analysis of what’s currently available at QB in the college ranks. I’s my hope that our QB situation will look good after this season with what we have and our first round pick could be used to add a difference maker at EDGE, CB, or OT if we don’t extend Cross and Lucas.
Best situation possible is to be settled enough at QB to be able to take a young hotshot and sit him for a year or even two years. I’m hoping by the end of the season they know whether to roll the dice on Milroe or spend another pick on a QB.