The O-line is a place where players NEED to stay and play together to get good or even better! What it truly takes too is leadership , which means at least one Vet that is good to great in teaching the intricacies of playing up front! Many players have been available but none chosen ! And Again IF we see the same thing this year as the past several JS head should be on the block!
Great post, totally makes sense. Thanks for dispelling the hype and frenzy about the O line and giving a make sense approach to what could have been done for a whole lot more money with even the outcome of a lesser result. Let's see what happens. I say take a good WR (Matthew Golden) or maybe TE Tyler Warren, in the first, if he falls then take a couple OL.
Hey Joe, great article! Here's an article idea/not sure if youve already done it that I'd enjoy.
Could you look back at Johns last X (10?) years of drafting o line and determine his 1) overall hit rate (maybe as defined by grade or starts or dollars paid on second contract by the Seahawks or another team?) 2) how long it took for them to develop?
I've sensed that we have indeed drafted a lot of o linemen, and more recently, in day 1 and 2. John made a comment in his show recently that we also need to do a better job of developing talent, so I'm curious if the evidence shows that.
Been saying we likely have 4 of 5 already. Just need to get all 5 set at start of camp and working as a single unit. Love the positiveness. Love JS and Coach Mac coming out and saying this. We’ve got a coach who’s been coaching for more years than most of these guys or our head coach has been alive.
This is just a fantastic article. The comps with fries are so appreciated. This meshes well but mixes differently with Mike Dugar's critical refrain that coaching is the solution. Well, maybe it is, and that's reasonable I now ponder for the first time...
College kids, except the incredible specimens, are just not ready. Been reading and seeing scouts and assistant coaches stating this for a long time. CBA also impacts them. Stunts their growth. No hitting in camp. Hard to “beef” up when not going full contact with Big Cat, JReed and Murphy. And practice against the speed of Mafe.
That is great insight to what really is the core of a team, development. If we look at the root of problem, the lack of a successful running attack, redzone scores, third down conversions would it not start with the lack of consistent (OC) coaching styles, coaching staff, change of schemes?
To me, its hard to assess player skill and development when the schemes and play calling are out of sync, lacking consistent success. We have been use to last minute comebacks, hoping we are on a winning streak.
This feels like a coaching staff that can build the key (Core) fundamentals to development young lineman and a scheme that doesn't add pressure to the OL. I don't believe throwing more draft picks at it is the solution. A more balanced scheme, with experienced and successful coaches itself, should help the OL and the QB. Go Hawks!
I'm fine with being patient working with Bradford and Olu...they at least show some promise. So glad Tomlinson is gone. Hope Abe is healthy, that's a big one and could alter draft plans significantly. I agree with extending Cross now and saving money, young and getting better. I really like Donovan Jackson in the draft, plays LG/LT but most likely doesn't go at 18 and is long gone by 50-52. I also really like Barron in the first round...if he falls.
Youth is great....so long as it comes with baseline athleticism, the right body, determination, football intelligence, coachability, good coaching and good playcalling. The jury is clearly out on some of the returning line, on some of these factors. We'll just have to wait and see
You present a hopeful picture and I want to buy in. Not to be the wet blanket, but I entered the off-season thinking that job one was to actually fix the O line. Instead, they traded away a QB who seemed able to put up decent numbers behind a very poor Oline. They replaced him with a QB who I suspect will have trouble matching Geno’s production if the Oline doesn’t magical gel in the coming season. They traded away some of the best receivers and replaced them with … players who may have trouble playing all the games and matching the production of those who have gone out the door.
You are putting a lot of faith in the new OC and coaches. Will they have enough secret sauce to convert a poorly performing line into one which will give the new QB enough time, and the confidence needed to be as good as he was last year? I think Darnold is fragile, and slower to get the ball out than Geno was, o so if this Oline is no better or only marginally so then I fear we may be looking at a less exciting, less successful season.
I’ve been a fan since the beginning, and I realize this is a major gamble I’ll hop on the wagon as a hopeful, life long fan, but doubt lingers because, so far things have gone way wide of what I was expecting. Then again a perpetual no playoff team, or one and done playoff team makes my stomach hurt. I have high hopes but tempered expectations.
Wow - this article really lays out all my hopes and dreams for the O-line. Cross is 24?? Dang . . . Thanks for all the detail, since for me it’s all been gut feel that we have a young line and now is not the time to panic.
This inexperienced line last year, with multiple RT injuries right off the bat, a center who quit midseason, and an aging LG well past his glory years, still allowed the QB to throw for 4300 yards - and did it when every defense pretty much knew they were going to throw! This year - balanced offense, run-blocking, quick-hitters - all helping a line that’s growing in experience. One more vet and a 2nd-round rookie added to the mix, and we go from there.
Well said Bob. It’s nice having a bit of positivity with this article and your post. I’m getting over all these JS bashers. Give the guy a chance. It’s a new group of people trying to work it all out. I think most of the moves have been positive ones. Let it play out before mouthing off about what ‘might’ happen, I say.
I admit I've been critical of JS. It's not easy selecting players and whenever we deal with people things get less predictable. I've seen what JS has done this off season and approve of his moves, hoping he will crush the draft and we can all eat crow.
Fries wouldn't submit to a physical and still wanted 18 mill? I'm glad the Hawks didn't sign him.
I think they only take an IOLman in the 1st round if they think there's another Walter in the Draft. With new and hopefully better coaching and a different blocking scheme, the Oline may be much better than last year. If not, they can always pull a trade during the pre season or the regular season! I think they stay at 18 and take the BPA.
I would've liked to at least try for Joe Thuney or a vet to stabilize the line.
You look at what the Bears did.
Even Ben Johnson talked about the importance of passing EPA (over turnovers) in predicting the outcome of an NFL game. What is the biggest negative impact to passing EPA? Not interceptions... it is Sacks. So, no surprised that the Bears have immediately addressed the O-line.
But as far as signing Fries, why would you not just sign Lewis the previous year? Pocic? Glowinski? The list goes on and on.
It is ok right now to not panic but we should never be in this situation to have the youngest line because we should extend lineman.
They are not "over drafted" and "overpaid" ... The market has just beat JS to the punch time and again.
Hoping play calling and overall scheme help mitigate this. Establish the run, rpo Quick hitters, mix in screens and play action and hope on the ( hopefully) few times a game we have to drop back on third and long we can hold the pressure just long enough....but if not, it could get ugly.
I am reading a ton of hope and Kool-Aid drinking in the fan base right now. Even though I tend to agree that the line should be better with Kubiak's scheme and another year of experience ... I would still take good players over scheme any day.
Not to mention, you add on the fact that Darnold holds the football almost as long as any QB in the league.
All this leads me to a position of caution when it comes to the offense.
Vegas is out with an Over/Under win total of 8.5 which seems about right to me (I have it at 8).
Absolutely it’s possible. 12 wins probably about as likely as 5 wins.
I disagree with Vegas win totals often. But it is an unbiased assessment of the team set by all the bettors opinion of that teams skill or outcomes.
And just becuase the Hawks won 10 games last year doesn’t necessarily mean the O/U was wrong. 10 wins is just 1 possible outcome.
So at least right now the average or median outcome for the market is 8.5 (with juice on the under) and it’s not cause they are dumb it’s becuase of the reasons that Seahawks fans don’t want to see. QB downgrade, offensive line more of the same, lost talented WR etc
IN my opinion, given the off-season thus far, the Hawks are far more likley to get to 12 wins than they are to only win 5. And, regardless, the assessment improved from last year despite the downgraded at QB (I agree with you there), the potential the Oline may be similar to 2024, and the WR room potential to be better or worse than 2024. The Hawks also signed necessary players, avoided contracts that were too expensive, and shedded players who failed to live up to their contracts (except for Fant). Further, the Hawks hired (hopefully good) new offensive coaches, and have numerous young players who will (again hopefully) improve. I take the 8.5 line as an indication that Vegas feels better about the team than they did last year, and I hope that they have underestimated the quality of the team again.
Pointing out that (I think) they had a 7.5 O/U win total last year (think it closed around 8.5) and 8.5 this year points towards progress.
I would agree with that and that is due to A) Mike Mac looks like a very good coach B) the defense looks stout C) the team has been young and so these guys are now hitting 3-4 years into the league and are likely to progress
But it seems to me that it is a bit more stuck in the mud. As the defense gets better and players gain experience, we have also ratcheted up risk at QB (he could be good not saying what he is or isn’t, but I think for sure he is more risky) and are hoping for a better o line through the same players and different coaches.
Compare that to what the bears did: aggressively upgraded the o line.
Every offseason is a different set of challenges and circumstances. I don't think JS would go back in time and do anything different with Damian Lewis than what he did before. However, if Lewis were a contract decision for this offseason, and this set of circumstances, I wonder if JS would have paid to keep him.
I bet he would. Even though I scoffed at the contract the Panthers gave him at the time. And it WAS too much; waaaaay too much based on his below league average play his entire career up until that point. He's rounding into form and it worked out for them, but based on watching him in Seattle I figured he'd get maybe half of that contract ($13.25M per season). He was always strong but somehow, he learned how to move side to side with the agility of a gazelle the second he became a Panther.
But even not knowing how well he's done, I would still wager that JS would try hard to resign him. Offensive line is all he gets asked about lately! And I firmly believe that Jody Allen and that ownership group are chronically online and surely reading horrible sources like X and Reddit. And the pulse in places like that seems to be, "I don't care if we go 5-12 as long as our O line rocks!"
The O-line is a place where players NEED to stay and play together to get good or even better! What it truly takes too is leadership , which means at least one Vet that is good to great in teaching the intricacies of playing up front! Many players have been available but none chosen ! And Again IF we see the same thing this year as the past several JS head should be on the block!
They really only needed to bring in one guy , I believe , But still haven't done that , my question is WHY!
Great post, totally makes sense. Thanks for dispelling the hype and frenzy about the O line and giving a make sense approach to what could have been done for a whole lot more money with even the outcome of a lesser result. Let's see what happens. I say take a good WR (Matthew Golden) or maybe TE Tyler Warren, in the first, if he falls then take a couple OL.
Hey Joe, great article! Here's an article idea/not sure if youve already done it that I'd enjoy.
Could you look back at Johns last X (10?) years of drafting o line and determine his 1) overall hit rate (maybe as defined by grade or starts or dollars paid on second contract by the Seahawks or another team?) 2) how long it took for them to develop?
I've sensed that we have indeed drafted a lot of o linemen, and more recently, in day 1 and 2. John made a comment in his show recently that we also need to do a better job of developing talent, so I'm curious if the evidence shows that.
Thanks!
Opening paragraph and already marked it. Exactly.
Been saying we likely have 4 of 5 already. Just need to get all 5 set at start of camp and working as a single unit. Love the positiveness. Love JS and Coach Mac coming out and saying this. We’ve got a coach who’s been coaching for more years than most of these guys or our head coach has been alive.
This is just a fantastic article. The comps with fries are so appreciated. This meshes well but mixes differently with Mike Dugar's critical refrain that coaching is the solution. Well, maybe it is, and that's reasonable I now ponder for the first time...
College kids, except the incredible specimens, are just not ready. Been reading and seeing scouts and assistant coaches stating this for a long time. CBA also impacts them. Stunts their growth. No hitting in camp. Hard to “beef” up when not going full contact with Big Cat, JReed and Murphy. And practice against the speed of Mafe.
That is great insight to what really is the core of a team, development. If we look at the root of problem, the lack of a successful running attack, redzone scores, third down conversions would it not start with the lack of consistent (OC) coaching styles, coaching staff, change of schemes?
To me, its hard to assess player skill and development when the schemes and play calling are out of sync, lacking consistent success. We have been use to last minute comebacks, hoping we are on a winning streak.
This feels like a coaching staff that can build the key (Core) fundamentals to development young lineman and a scheme that doesn't add pressure to the OL. I don't believe throwing more draft picks at it is the solution. A more balanced scheme, with experienced and successful coaches itself, should help the OL and the QB. Go Hawks!
Seaside Joe, thank you for your perspective and insight! The off season is so much more enjoyable!
Double rec on this one, Rob.
I'm fine with being patient working with Bradford and Olu...they at least show some promise. So glad Tomlinson is gone. Hope Abe is healthy, that's a big one and could alter draft plans significantly. I agree with extending Cross now and saving money, young and getting better. I really like Donovan Jackson in the draft, plays LG/LT but most likely doesn't go at 18 and is long gone by 50-52. I also really like Barron in the first round...if he falls.
Interesting take!
Youth is great....so long as it comes with baseline athleticism, the right body, determination, football intelligence, coachability, good coaching and good playcalling. The jury is clearly out on some of the returning line, on some of these factors. We'll just have to wait and see
“Why does there seem to be so much patience for Seattle’s other draft picks, but the offensive linemen seem to rarely get a second or third chance?”
Because our patience is exhausted.
You present a hopeful picture and I want to buy in. Not to be the wet blanket, but I entered the off-season thinking that job one was to actually fix the O line. Instead, they traded away a QB who seemed able to put up decent numbers behind a very poor Oline. They replaced him with a QB who I suspect will have trouble matching Geno’s production if the Oline doesn’t magical gel in the coming season. They traded away some of the best receivers and replaced them with … players who may have trouble playing all the games and matching the production of those who have gone out the door.
You are putting a lot of faith in the new OC and coaches. Will they have enough secret sauce to convert a poorly performing line into one which will give the new QB enough time, and the confidence needed to be as good as he was last year? I think Darnold is fragile, and slower to get the ball out than Geno was, o so if this Oline is no better or only marginally so then I fear we may be looking at a less exciting, less successful season.
I’ve been a fan since the beginning, and I realize this is a major gamble I’ll hop on the wagon as a hopeful, life long fan, but doubt lingers because, so far things have gone way wide of what I was expecting. Then again a perpetual no playoff team, or one and done playoff team makes my stomach hurt. I have high hopes but tempered expectations.
Wow - this article really lays out all my hopes and dreams for the O-line. Cross is 24?? Dang . . . Thanks for all the detail, since for me it’s all been gut feel that we have a young line and now is not the time to panic.
This inexperienced line last year, with multiple RT injuries right off the bat, a center who quit midseason, and an aging LG well past his glory years, still allowed the QB to throw for 4300 yards - and did it when every defense pretty much knew they were going to throw! This year - balanced offense, run-blocking, quick-hitters - all helping a line that’s growing in experience. One more vet and a 2nd-round rookie added to the mix, and we go from there.
Well said Bob. It’s nice having a bit of positivity with this article and your post. I’m getting over all these JS bashers. Give the guy a chance. It’s a new group of people trying to work it all out. I think most of the moves have been positive ones. Let it play out before mouthing off about what ‘might’ happen, I say.
I admit I've been critical of JS. It's not easy selecting players and whenever we deal with people things get less predictable. I've seen what JS has done this off season and approve of his moves, hoping he will crush the draft and we can all eat crow.
Why I’m posting all over. Just makes no sense.
Fries wouldn't submit to a physical and still wanted 18 mill? I'm glad the Hawks didn't sign him.
I think they only take an IOLman in the 1st round if they think there's another Walter in the Draft. With new and hopefully better coaching and a different blocking scheme, the Oline may be much better than last year. If not, they can always pull a trade during the pre season or the regular season! I think they stay at 18 and take the BPA.
I would've liked to at least try for Joe Thuney or a vet to stabilize the line.
You look at what the Bears did.
Even Ben Johnson talked about the importance of passing EPA (over turnovers) in predicting the outcome of an NFL game. What is the biggest negative impact to passing EPA? Not interceptions... it is Sacks. So, no surprised that the Bears have immediately addressed the O-line.
But as far as signing Fries, why would you not just sign Lewis the previous year? Pocic? Glowinski? The list goes on and on.
It is ok right now to not panic but we should never be in this situation to have the youngest line because we should extend lineman.
They are not "over drafted" and "overpaid" ... The market has just beat JS to the punch time and again.
Bingo!
Sacks are the biggest negative impact and I foresee Darnold taking a lot of them behind this suspect line.
Hoping play calling and overall scheme help mitigate this. Establish the run, rpo Quick hitters, mix in screens and play action and hope on the ( hopefully) few times a game we have to drop back on third and long we can hold the pressure just long enough....but if not, it could get ugly.
Unfortunately, I agree with you.
I am reading a ton of hope and Kool-Aid drinking in the fan base right now. Even though I tend to agree that the line should be better with Kubiak's scheme and another year of experience ... I would still take good players over scheme any day.
Not to mention, you add on the fact that Darnold holds the football almost as long as any QB in the league.
All this leads me to a position of caution when it comes to the offense.
Vegas is out with an Over/Under win total of 8.5 which seems about right to me (I have it at 8).
They had the hawks at 6.5 last year, right? So maybe we win 12 games instead of 10?
Absolutely it’s possible. 12 wins probably about as likely as 5 wins.
I disagree with Vegas win totals often. But it is an unbiased assessment of the team set by all the bettors opinion of that teams skill or outcomes.
And just becuase the Hawks won 10 games last year doesn’t necessarily mean the O/U was wrong. 10 wins is just 1 possible outcome.
So at least right now the average or median outcome for the market is 8.5 (with juice on the under) and it’s not cause they are dumb it’s becuase of the reasons that Seahawks fans don’t want to see. QB downgrade, offensive line more of the same, lost talented WR etc
IN my opinion, given the off-season thus far, the Hawks are far more likley to get to 12 wins than they are to only win 5. And, regardless, the assessment improved from last year despite the downgraded at QB (I agree with you there), the potential the Oline may be similar to 2024, and the WR room potential to be better or worse than 2024. The Hawks also signed necessary players, avoided contracts that were too expensive, and shedded players who failed to live up to their contracts (except for Fant). Further, the Hawks hired (hopefully good) new offensive coaches, and have numerous young players who will (again hopefully) improve. I take the 8.5 line as an indication that Vegas feels better about the team than they did last year, and I hope that they have underestimated the quality of the team again.
I think that’s a fair argument.
Pointing out that (I think) they had a 7.5 O/U win total last year (think it closed around 8.5) and 8.5 this year points towards progress.
I would agree with that and that is due to A) Mike Mac looks like a very good coach B) the defense looks stout C) the team has been young and so these guys are now hitting 3-4 years into the league and are likely to progress
But it seems to me that it is a bit more stuck in the mud. As the defense gets better and players gain experience, we have also ratcheted up risk at QB (he could be good not saying what he is or isn’t, but I think for sure he is more risky) and are hoping for a better o line through the same players and different coaches.
Compare that to what the bears did: aggressively upgraded the o line.
We will see what happens.
Every offseason is a different set of challenges and circumstances. I don't think JS would go back in time and do anything different with Damian Lewis than what he did before. However, if Lewis were a contract decision for this offseason, and this set of circumstances, I wonder if JS would have paid to keep him.
I bet he would. Even though I scoffed at the contract the Panthers gave him at the time. And it WAS too much; waaaaay too much based on his below league average play his entire career up until that point. He's rounding into form and it worked out for them, but based on watching him in Seattle I figured he'd get maybe half of that contract ($13.25M per season). He was always strong but somehow, he learned how to move side to side with the agility of a gazelle the second he became a Panther.
But even not knowing how well he's done, I would still wager that JS would try hard to resign him. Offensive line is all he gets asked about lately! And I firmly believe that Jody Allen and that ownership group are chronically online and surely reading horrible sources like X and Reddit. And the pulse in places like that seems to be, "I don't care if we go 5-12 as long as our O line rocks!"
A refreshing and different angle, nice work.