Seahawks cap savings if they select QB, WR, EDGE, or Bijan Robinson in the 1st round
Saving millions at tackle with Charles Cross, Abe Lucas, how could Seattle continue that trend in 2023? 3/20/2023
This is “GM season” in the NFL and while that job never gets a true day off—not unlike running a daily Seahawks newsletter—at no point in the year are people like John Schneider more scrutinized for what they do during free agency and the draft. Schneider will get grades for his free agency decisions (speaking of which, voting is still open today! results soon!), his free agency indecisions, and will most heavily be judged for what happens in the draft beginning April 27th.
But it’ll takes years for us to truly understand the impact and quality of what the Seattle Seahawks and other teams are doing right now. For example, we knew a year ago that selecting a left tackle with the number nine pick could carry a significant net value to the team IF Charles Cross turns out to be a good one. Cross held his own as a rookie, so that choice is starting to give hope that the Seahawks could save millions against the cap in the next few years as compared to other players at the position.
It was Seattle’s third round offensive tackle who could carry the most on the offensive line. And a fifth round cornerback who does at least as much as Sauce Gardner but at a fraction of the cost.
As I wrote in February, the Seahawks are saving a ton of money by having Charles Cross and Abe Lucas as their bookend tackles, which is looking even better now after right tackles like Mike McGlinchey and Jawaan Taylor signed deals north of $17 million per season. Seattle has a great opportunity ahead to find even more savings with their draft picks by holding selections at 5, 20, 37, and 52 through the first two rounds alone.
How much in savings? Especially when we’re addressing the possibility of the Seahawks making a historic franchise decision if they select a quarterback with #5? That’s what I wanted to find out with today’s bonus episode of Seaside Joe. Let’s start with two numbers that we know already:
5th overall pick: $34.3 million guaranteed, $6.2 million 2023 cap hit
20th overall pick: $15.2 million guaranteed, $2.8 million 2023 cap hit
Last year’s fifth overall pick, Giants edge Kayvon Thibodeaux, had a $5.7 million rookie cap hit which jumps to $7.1 million in year two. Last year’s 20th overall pick, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett, had a $2.6 million rookie cap hit which jumps to $3.2 million in year two.
We are not addressing second round picks today, but for what it’s worth Seattle’s 37th pick has a rookie cap hit of $1.7 million and pick 52 has a rookie cap hit of $1.25 million.
I’ll start with quarterback and show FREE subscribers a preview of what’s ahead, but join the Regular Joes club to read the full post! We added more than FIFTY new total subscribers over the weekend—If you’re new here, explore the archives! Come check out what’s behind the curtain or wait until a new FREE newsletter later on Monday.
QB
Seahawks commitment: Geno Smith $10.1 million (2023), $31.2m (2024), $33.7m (2025)
5th overall pick: $6.2m (2023), ~$7.6m (2024), ~$9m (2025)
20th overall pick: $2.8m (2023), ~$3.4m (2024), ~$4m (2025)
If the Seahawks use their first pick on a quarterback, they are most likely spending that $6 million cap hit on a player who won’t contribute next season. That’s not a guarantee, of course, I’m just playing the probabilities. We now know that Drew Lock got a nice $1.75 million signing bonus (more than three times as much as Geno last year), which suggests that Pete Carroll most certainly expects and wants him to be the backup. If for any reason Seattle drafted a QB and cut bait with Lock before the season, they would have wasted about $2 million and would save about $2 million against the cap.
Right now, the Seahawks are spending $14.1 million against the cap at QB, a number that goes up to $20.3 million if the #5 pick is a QB; $16.9m if the QB pick is made at #20.
As much as it is worth mentioning that if the QB pick works out, that results in future savings—important word we often forget with rookie QB contract savings: “If”—it’s also good to note that a QB will likely sit for all of 2023. There are definitely some positions that could carry immediate value at $6.2 million and just last year we saw that play out with Sauce Gardner, Aidan Hutchinson, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and others.
How do we weigh Seattle’s potential savings in future cap space if the Seahawks do pick a QB early and if that player is good enough to replace Geno and Lock by 2024? How would those savings compare to savings at edge, receiver, and if the Seahawks select Bijan Robinson at either #5 or #20? If you’re not in the Regular Joes club yet, join now to find out! Access hundreds of bonus articles from the past, many more in the future, and to support the newsletter, as well as to keep reading today’s bonus Joe…