We might as well talk about it

Could Seahawks draft a first round QB and who are the suspects?

If the 2025 quarterback class is as underwhelming as the experts are saying it is right now, does that make it the worst time for the Seattle Seahawks to target one in the first round? Or the ideal time?

Should the Seahawks do the least-Seahawky thing of the franchise’s existence and pick a quarterback in the first round, the move doesn’t have to be framed as a “bad decision” or a “great decision” because the only judge that matters is time: Over a long enough period of time in the future, will that quarterback prove to be Seattle’s best draft pick since Russell Wilson?

Strictly judging quarterbacks drafted within the same range as the Seahawks pick 18, there’s a chance for that player to be anything from a Super Bowl winner to a Hall of Famer to someone that the rest of the world outside of Seattle (like Dan McGwire can attest to) will soon forget about forever.

Before we look at this year’s options, consider the last 20 years of “mid-first round” quarterbacks:

• Since 2004, there have been 21 QBs picked between 11 and 26 (I went 7 picks up and eight picks down from 18, giving us half of the first round)

• Super Bowl winners include Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Joe Flacco

• The only other QB with over 80 career starts (5 seasons) is Jay Cutler

• QBs between 50-79 starts are Josh Freeman, Deshaun Watson, and Jason Campbell

• Still working on it: Jordan Love, Bo Nix

• Current backups: Justin Fields, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett

• 20 starts or less: Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, Dwayne Haskins, Tim Tebow, E.J. Manuel, Brady Quinn

Any quarterback drafted outside of the top-10 is more likely to be Manziel than Rodgers, and a team would actually be VERY lucky to land Jay Cutler or Joe Flacco. The two quarterbacks with a chance to make the Hall of Fame (Rodgers, Roethlisberger) despite sharing so many letters in their last names are so different with respect to their draft situations and styles as to not warrant comparison.

Roetherlisberger went 13-0 as a rookie and won the Super Bowl in year two, while Rodgers didn’t start a game until year four. As we’re seeing with Rodgers’ replacement, a team can’t really follow the same plan anymore because the Packers had to pay Love a huge contract extension after just one season as a starter. Roethlisberger fell to 11th in a draft class that had two borderline Hall of Famers at quarterback, as well as Larry Fitzgerald, Sean Taylor, and Robert Gallery (who was supposed to be good).

In a class without Eli Manning and Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger is probably the first overall pick. Not 11th.

So every year is different and that makes it difficult to compare quarterbacks just based on how high they were drafted, but especially before the draft has actually happened at a time when analysts clearly can’t predict the order.

Do QBs go higher than expected?

A year ago around this time, people were still warming up to the idea that Jayden Daniels was going to be placed in the top-3 alongside Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, while Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix were still thought of as day two picks.

By the 12th pick, all six were taken off the board. Could something similar — albeit at a smaller scale — play out in 2025, with more than two quarterbacks being drafted in the first round?

The very trite question of “How would you slot this year’s QBs with last year’s?” was posed to Daniel Jeremiah and he gave this answer:

“When you look at this group compared to last year, I had Cam Ward with the same grade as Bo Nix — so that would put him behind those top four for me,” Jeremiah said. “He’d be kind of in that fifth range. Michael Penix, I had just slightly ahead of Shedeur, so Shedeur would be behind ... Caleb, Drake, Jayden, McCarthy, Nix, Penix. I would have Shedeur right behind that group.”

Jeremiah is essentially saying that the top two quarterbacks in 2025, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, would be drafted somewhere between 12-15ish in last year’s class.

But since this draft doesn’t have a top-3 like last year’s, similar to the Roethlisberger scenario I mentioned earlier, Ward could be drafted earlier than a normal expectation for a quarterback prospect of his caliber.

(As someone who has followed the Cougs, I would not put the burden of “top-3 pick franchise quarterback” on Cam Ward. His decision making crumbled at key moments. If you have an opinion though, what do you think? Is he that good?)

The questions about first round quarterbacks seem to start after Ward is drafted because he’s the one guy who has the tools that you’d typically see go early and the intrigue falls on these guys:

• Is Shedeur Sanders worthy of a top-10 draft pick?

• Does Jaxson Dart go in the first round?

• Does Tyler Shough go in the first round?

• Does anyone else go in the first round?

• Who are the top QB prospects in the second round?

We may get to the draft and find out that the Seahawks actually have to make a decision on Sanders when they’re on the clock. We might also find out that Dart is the Penix or Nix of 2025, going earlier than anticipated because outsiders underestimated how desperate teams are for a quarterback with experience and just enough tools to start in the NFL.

The downside to drafting a QB at 18:

He almost certainly lacks the traits you would typically find in a first round prospect because the NFL usually does not let those guys slip outside of the top-10.

The potential for upside:

The teams picking ahead of Seattle could decide to overlook a QB prospect because their need at the position isn’t that great (maybe they picked a QB last year) and/or they’re waiting for a much better QB prospect in 2026 (a chance that may never come if you’re the Seahawks.

Let’s look at the draft order and decide how great the odds are of the Seahawks getting lucky with a QB prospect who maybe shouldn’t be there.

KEEP SCROLLING FOR MORE QB CONTENT AFTER A QUICK PROMO

Subscribe to Seaside Joe!

I used to urge people to upgrade to Regular Joes or Super Joes a lot more often than I have done in the last year, so please allow me two seconds to remind folks how important it is to have your support.

If you have the means and desire to do so, upgrade to Regular Joes for only $5 per month or $55 for an entire year, or go SUPER(!) at $10 per month.

If you’d like anymore encouragement, here is a picture of Seaside Clark after he got a haircut last week. Despite the look on his face, he really likes it! (The groomer dresses him up, not us.)

BEFORE

AFTER

If you can do it, please subscribe! Thanks!

Now back to whether the Seahawks could draft a QB!

How many teams ahead of the Seahawks might pick a QB?

We’re used to seeing the order go from 1 on down, but let’s start at 17 and move our way up:

2025 reverse draft order

17 - Bengals NO

16 - Cardinals PROBABLY NOT

15 - Falcons NO

14 - Colts PROBABLY NOT

13 - Dolphins MAYBE

12 - Cowboys PROBABLY NOT

11 - 49ers PROBABLY NOT

I err on the side of conservative, which is why I write “probably not” when most rational people would give it a flat-out no. In reality though, the seven teams picking ahead of the Seahawks do not need a quarterback, especially not a quarterback in a weak quarterback class.

All of these teams recently drafted a quarterback, recently paid a quarterback, or are expected to pay a quarterback soon.

A team like Miami might have buyer’s remorse with Tua Tagovailoa and could be a sneaky team for a quarterback, but are they going to address a position that they already addressed over replacing some of the oldest starters in the NFL?

There’s a good chance that unless a team trades up and over Seattle — which is possible but could become unlikely depending on the QB carousel — that any quarterback who doesn’t go in the top 10, including Sanders and Dart, are still available at 18.

What about teams in the top-10?

There are far more teams with a QB need in the top-10 than the rest of the first round, including:

• 1 Titans

• 2 Browns

• 3 Giants

• 6 Raiders

• 7 Jets

• 9 Saints

So will those teams throw caution to the wind like the Broncos did with Nix and pick a QB much earlier than his draft grade or will they address QB before the draft and hope that they can still take one in 2026? Because other than what the Cardinals did with Josh Rosen, no team drafts a QB early one year after picking a QB in the top-10.

If the Browns get Kirk Cousins, the Giants get Matthew Stafford, and the Raiders get Aaron Rodgers, it could be a long wait for someone like Sanders or Dart to have their name called.

Does that benefit the Seahawks?

QB Shedeur Sanders

Jeremiah has ranked Sanders 15th on his big board and wrote the following:

Sanders is a slightly undersized quarterback with outstanding touch, accuracy and toughness. He operates out of the ‘gun and is crisp in his footwork/setup. When he has time and space in the pocket, he throws from a strong platform, showcasing a compact, smooth delivery. He really keeps his left arm tucked close to his body, which aids his ball placement. He relies more on timing and anticipation than pure velocity. He isn’t a sudden/twitchy mover when pressured, and that’s part of the reason why he took so many sacks over the past two seasons. Still, the main culprit was poor protection. Despite taking some hellacious hits, he hangs in the pocket and doesn’t drop his eyes to see the rush. His toughness is unquestionable. Overall, Sanders doesn’t have elite size, arm strength or athleticism, but he can find success in an offense based on timing and ball placement.

I would not doubt that Sanders has the work ethic to succeed in the NFL (Deion Sanders has not struck me as a dad who gives his sons a free pass) but are we talking about him because he’s a great prospect or because he’s been in the national spotlight for so long?

Maybe the name “Sanders” has even worked against Shedeur, giving people pause to actually consider him because they assume he’s been overhyped.

QB Jaxson Dart

Dart first got attention for having a pretty decent debut season at USC in 2021, but transferred to Ole Miss after Lincoln Riley came to the Trojans with Caleb Williams. He got better every year at Ole Miss, finishing first in the country last season with 11.53 adjusted yards per attempt, first at 10.8 Y/A, and first at 180.7 passer rating.

Where he’s not first is Jeremiah’s big board, as he ranked 42nd:

Dart has slightly below-average height and a thick/sturdy frame. He’s an excellent athlete and was very productive in Lane Kiffin’s offensive system. Dart connects on a lot of RPOs, quick hitters and seam balls. He has the touch to get the ball up and down at the second level. He flashed the ability to get deeper in his progression, but the first or second option was usually open. His eyes work fast and there are occasions where his feet fail to catch up, which can impact ball placement. He doesn’t have a huge power arm, but he has enough to drive the ball outside the numbers without issue. His decision-making continued to improve throughout his college career, but there were still hiccups at times. I love his athleticism and competitiveness as a runner. He can create off-script and execute on designed QB runs. Overall, Dart is still a work in progress, but he possesses starter traits and his competitiveness will endear him to his teammates.

Same as Sanders, here are some highlights:

Do you see anything you like in either of these two QBs?

The Seahawks have an advantageous situation for a QB

What Seaside Joe wants to see for a quarterback if he’s drafted by the Seahawks (or really any team) in the first round is having a year to sit behind a veteran and learn. Even Roetherlisberger’s rookie season that I mentioned earlier, he was coddled and put on a team with a #1 defense and a veteran supporting cast including Hines Ward, Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley, and Plaxico Burress. Roethlisberger threw just 295 pass attempts, half the number we might see today.

Whether the Seahawks retain Geno Smith for a year or go the cheaper route of attempting to replace him with Kirk Cousins, Seattle’s in a position to have a bridge quarterback on the roster and let Sanders or Dart (or someone else) hang out behind him for an entire year.

All due respect to Sam Howell, either of these prospects would offer more upside and reason for optimism that the QBOTF is on the roster. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and QBs coach Andrew Janocko would have a full year to develop that QB and see whether or not he was misevaluated as a prospect and/or passed on simply because the teams ahead of them didn’t feel they absolutely had to pull the trigger on a quarterback.

Is one year with Jaxson Dart in the hopes that he can take over in 2026 BETTER than the Seahawks waiting until the 2026 draft and finding out if that player (if they can even take one, as Seattle’s going to probably win 10ish games again) could become a starter in 2027?

The Seahawks have been extremely passive as their rivals addressed the QB position, some with success and others in failure (but continue to try), so picking one this year could actually be John Schneider’s “We zig when they zag” effort to put someone in place for the future.

“But shouldn’t the Seahawks address a bigger need or pick a higher rated prospect?”

Of course that’s on the table! Drafting a QB in the first round could be a wildly unrealistic picture to paint for the Seahawks. This is just Seaside Joe’s stab at addressing the possibility and opening the floor for discussion.

Remember that one of the big storylines of 2020 was how the Packers “had to” draft a wide receiver for Aaron Rodgers and that picking Love instead was malpractice. Maybe that was a mistake, but measuring Love against most of Green Bay’s first round picks in the last 10 years, he’s easy to argue as the most valuable pick in the bunch.

Is drafting a QB with a 40/60 chance of success over a guard or a linebacker or a receiver with a 65/35 chance of success really going to go down as Schneider’s biggest mistake as a GM? A bigger mistake than never drafting a QB?

This might not be the year to do it. Then again, if the Seahawks ARE in position to draft a quarterback early in the 2026 draft, Schneider might not even be around anymore to make the pick. A first round QB pick might be so unlikely that Seattle actually ends up doing it.

Seaside Joe 2184