Seahawks draft is a K.O.
Seahawks deserve praise for not lying to themselves about the offense
Klint Kubiak feels like the second active head coach of the Seahawks and the offseason moves since hiring him to replace Ryan Grubb have been dedicated to a knockout punch (K.O. = Kubiak Offense) of the previous offense so that Kubiak is allowed a total reset to prove what he can do.
The 2025 draft class reaffirms that John Schneider and Mike Macdonald were NOT HAPPY with the previous offense, from Grubb to most of the starters, as 9 of the team’s 11 picks were on that side of the ball! With as much change as we’ve seen between Grubb’s firing and Saturday, the Seahawks have at least one advantage on offense:
Unpredictability!
Week 1, 2024 FACTS
6 of 11 offensive starters in Week 1’s win over the Broncos are GONE
That includes 3 of 5 offensive linemen (Tomlinson, Williams, G. Fant)
It does not include Stone Forsythe (54 snaps in place of Fant), who is also gone
A 7th starter, Anthony Bradford, is all but pushed out of a starting role and will have to compete for a spot on the 53
2 of the remaining 4 returning starters will need to compete for starting roles again: TE Noah Fant, RB Kenneth Walker
That only leaves 2 survivors: WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, LT Charles Cross
If we extend this to players who were not healthy enough to start in Week 1 but are expected to retain their jobs, then RT Abe Lucas would make three. And although Walker has to compete against Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh to win over Kubiak as the starting running back, he’s in a good position to hold onto the job, or Charbonnet could be a great player in his own right and deserve it anyway.
Fant is on the hot seat, especially after the team drafted Elijah Arroyo with the 50th overall pick, but it’s too early to say if his job is really in danger until he’s either traded or released and that might never happen.
But under no circumstances is half of Seattle’s offense returning in 2025: They’ve fired the person responsible for designing and offense and calling plays, and they’ve ripped off the band-aid for five of the team’s top-seven players in offensive snaps:
QB Geno Smith (97% snaps): Traded
WR DK Metcalf (76% snaps): Traded
WR Tyler Lockett (70% snaps): Released
G Laken Tomlinson (99.7% snaps): Free agency departure
C Connor Williams (56% snaps): Retired
Including Forsythe (38%) and Pharaoh Brown (24%), the Seahawks have gotten rid of about 5,000 offensive snaps from last season. Another 1,000-1,500 are definitely competing for their jobs. By the numbers, Seattle’s offense didn’t look that bad in 2024:
18th in scoring
14th in total yards
8th in passing yards
17th in yards per carry
18th in EPA per play
But the decision to rebuild the offense and to not “run it back” with Geno and DK, even after firing Grubb, is likely due to two undeniable realities:
1) The Seahawks were TERRIBLE at running the football (28th in yards, 29th in attempts, 21st in EPA/run despite facing a light box on the 4th-highest percentage of run plays; plus we have eyes and it sucked to have to watch Walker and Charbonnet be wasted).
2) If you want to beat good teams in the NFL, you have to be able to keep up with the best-of-the-best in terms of scoring and scoring at will: If the Seahawks want to stand any chance of winning playoff teams, they can’t show up with a “pretty good” offense to face the Lions (564 points), Commanders (485 points), and Eagles (463) points.
I don’t know if you remember or not, but Philadelphia scored 95 points in their NFC Championship + Super Bowl wins. They scored 28 in the divisional round at 22 in the wild card.
The Seahawks scored 375 points last season
They scored 30 only three times (34, 30, and 30)
They scored 28 points only four times (42-29 loss to the Lions)
If you’re keeping track at home: The team that won the Super Bowl scored 28 points in EACH of their final three playoff games, including 40 and 55.
The Seattle Seahawks have not scored 40 points in a football game since October 2, 2023 (48-45 win over the Lions).
The Seahawks have not scored 50 points since a 51-29 win over the Lions in the second-to-last game of 2021.
The Seahawks have not scored 40 points against a team that isn’t the Lions since 40-3 over the Jets on December 12, 2020. They also scored 40 points against the Bucs (in OT) on November 3, 2019.
This newsletter started on March 4, 2019 and has been posted every single day since then. It’s a long time, right?
Well, in that period of time — over 2,200 days — the Seattle Seahawks have only scored OVER 40 points exactly TWICE and both of those came against the Lions. The last time Seattle scored OVER 40 points against a non-Detroit team was a 43-16 win over the 49ers on December 2, 2018.
The entire pandemic + a year and change has happened since then!
(While we’re on the topic, if you think this newsletter is cool and deserves your support for $5 a month or $55 per year, please upgrade to Regular Joes and I’ll keep it going, just hit the button and I’ll keep delivering; if you pay for a year today, you’ll be paid up for bonus content through the 2026 draft)
The Buffalo Bills scored 30 or more points in 12 of their 17 regular season games last year and 40 or more points in four of those games. If you want to be the best, you not only have to BEAT the best, but you have to COMPETE with the best and the Seahawks have not truly been competing with them for years.
Schneider’s efforts to erase almost anything left from the Pete Carroll era, and to admit his own mistakes with Grubb and a poor investment on the interior of the offensive line (Tomlinson, Williams, and to this point Christian Haynes) is the sign that fans were hoping for that the Seahawks were not going to settle for a “safe” offseason.
Seattle has gone from one of the most predictable offenses to one of the least predictable, and it’s better to fear that the bottom might fall out next season by making these changes than it would have been to run it back knowing that the Geno offense had already hit its peak.
The New Offense
QB - Sam Darnold^, Drew Lock^, Jalen Milroe*
RB - Walker, Charbonnet, McIntosh, Damien Martinez*
FB - Robbie Ouzts*, Brady Russell
WR - JSN, Cooper Kupp^, Marquez Valdes-Scantling^, Tory Horton*, Jake Bobo, Steven Sims^, River Cracraft^, Dareke Young, WR Ricky White III*
TE - Fant, Elijah Arroyo*, A.J. Barner, Eric Saubert
LT - Charles Cross, Josh Jones*, Mason Richman*
LG - Grey Zabel*, Sataoa Laumea
C - Olu Oluwatimi, Jalen Sundell, (Zabel)
RG - Christian Haynes, Anthony Bradford, Bryce Cabeldue*
RT - Abe Lucas, Michael Jerrell,
*Draft
^Free Agency
(Not a complete depth chart, just the players I felt like naming)
Do you feel better about this than running it back with Geno and DK?
2025 draft updates
There will be no dedicated post to each day three draft pick, but here is what we haven’t covered yet on Seaside Joe:
4.142: DT Rylie Mills, Notre Dame. PFF notes Mills is a better pass rusher than run defender and at 6’5, 295, he is set to backup Leonard Williams
5.130: WR Tory Horton, Colorado State. Horton would not have been a reach if he was picked late in the third round, as a lot of people saw Day 2 potential but he missed more than half of last season with a knee injury. One of the best at the combine at 6’2, 196 with a 4.41 40-yard dash, Horton has the potential to be a Day 3 steal.
5.175: TE/FB Robbie Ouzts, Alabama. Milroe gets to bring a buddy with him to Seattle and Ouzts figures to be Kubiak’s fullback as he told the media that he’d rather block than score touchdowns. Brady Russell has huge (6’3, 274 lbs) competition for that role now.
6.192: G Bryce Cabeldue, Kansas. Another Seahawks pick who was one of the best athletes in the entire 2025 draft. Cabeldue ran a 4.95 40 and posted a 32” vertical, elite numbers for someone who is 6’4, 308. By all means, feel excited about all the picks, but keep in mind how rare it is for sixth and seventh round picks to become starters, so Cabeldue’s journey to make the team is only beginning. With Zabel, the Seahawks have drafted 7 players over the last 3 years who could play guard for them, and 8 if you add Sundell.
7.233: RB Damien Martinez, Miami. In the new era of college football, you can be one of the top players in your conference and still transfer as a “business decision”. It seems Martinez did that after he rushed for over 2,000 yards combined in his first two seasons at Oregon State, but he didn’t improve his draft stock as he had hoped after transferring to Miami despite rushing for 1,002 yards in 2024. He’s a “big back” who would probably only complement a starter.
7.234: OL Mason Richman, Iowa: There were not many scouting reports written about Richman before the draft, so this is a small surprise. He figures to play guard in the NFL.
7.238: WR Ricky White III, UNLV: At 6’1, 184 lbs, 4.61 40-yard dash, White is actually one of the least athletic players in the draft. He was, however, the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Year in 2024 (led FBS with 4 blocked punts!!!) and that figures to be his best shot at making the 53.
Sam Howell was traded to the Vikings for a 5th round pick swap
What was your favorite pick of the draft?
Seaside Joe 2245
Favourite pick of the draft? Basically everything the Eagles did.... yet again.... Or the Ravens... again... how do they do it year after year with such ease...
Pick that made me laugh and smile the most? Browns fumbling over themselves to not draft Sanders, only to then fumble into drafting Sanders, and just in general prove why Bad teams stay Bad.
Top of the Hawks? Might be Milroe... It's a real boom or bust move, but as my main frustration with JS for the last few years has been his lack of chutzpah, i kind of have to love this pick. Lets give Kubiak the reigns and space to get funky. If we're going to bust at least be entertaining.
Sneaky good pick for the Hawks? Mills. Hopefully he's the same player after recovery from the ACL as he was in the run up to Nov '24. If so we bagged a game changer on the line in the 4th.
Any Other Notes? We did well vs the other West teams. The Rams i don't get, they seemingly just gave up on the year mostly and i have no idea what their plan is. Cardinals could have had a great draft, but I think too many of the boom/bust picks will bust for them, not enough solid/smart picks there. 49ers embraced the D-build, which will inevitably be annoying to play against but they have not fixed their Offensive issues at all. The West should be there for the taking...
I know they keep saying that they are going to develop Milroe as a QB but because of a diehard Bama friend I did have to watch every Bama game this season or part of them and the only thing I see when I watch Milroe is Eddie George. Seriously except for the occasional deep ball hes basically the same size, speed and running style of Eddie. For those of you that didn't watch Ouzts this season he is also an absolute hammer that Milroe followed through alot of holes. Here is a patriots fan video pulling for them to draft Ouzts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM0HVdPi1Yo
Just for those that want to see more of him.
Super excited for the fun gadget plays this season but the overall O line competition and different scheme to get the ball possession aspect back and just go downhill and thump people on the chin.