Can Seahawks trust this pick at 18?
A Seahawks coaching connection to this first round prospect could be too good to ignore
A common and totally fair reaction to Thursday’s post about Cooper Kupp’s potential fit with the Seattle Seahawks was, “Couldn’t the Seahawks just draft receivers to complement Jaxon Smith-Njigba instead of buying an over-the-hill one?”
The Answer:
Yes, of course they could.
However, there are two counterpoints to that plan and they run against each other in 2025.
1 - Day 2 receivers have largely been busts, while the few good picks usually need time to develop.
2 - Unlike the past 5 years or so, there are no apparent good fits for Seattle’s first round pick.
If the Seahawks enter 2025 with JSN, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and a rookie second round pick, they could be setting $100.5 million Sam Darnold up for failure in his first season with Seattle.
I’ll use 2021 as an example because in a comment I left on yesterday’s post, I used 2022 already and the results were just as bad. Here are second round picks from 2021:
2.34 - Elijah Moore
2.49 - Rondale Moore
2.56 - Dee Eskridge
2.57 - Tutu Atwell
2.59 - Terrace Marshall
If the Seahawks risk an offense that features outside receivers like these examples, what reason do defenses have to not bring a safety into the box, double-JSN, and shut down the run?
The third round that year was better in that it featured Nico Collins, but he didn’t breakout until his third season, his third offensive coordinator, and his third quarterback.
Seaside Joe doesn’t doubt that the 2025 class will end up producing a few really good wide receivers, but this group is especially difficult to predict because experts can’t seem to agree on who those players will be. The top end guys are few and far between (Travis Hunter could play cornerback, Tatairoa McMillan divides analysts, and Matthew Golden is a late riser based on the combine, a formula that often produces busts) and day two will be packed with shots in the dark.
Even if there are two “Puka Nacuas” in the 2025 draft, the odds of landing him will be about 1-in-20.
JSN-Rookie-Rookie simply not a receiver plan that John Schneider can trust when it comes to supporting the highest-paid employee in the entire organization: Darnold.
Does that mean that the Seahawks should sign Cooper Kupp? The answer to that question is unequivocally: NO.
Nothing is going to force Seattle to sign Kupp and Thursday’s newsletter featured plenty of reasons to be hesitant, the least of which is money; plenty of players have “stolen” cap space recently (Uchenna Nwosu, Dre’Mont Jones, Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs) but if anyone is going to be an overpay, let it be someone who might save the Seahawks from starting John Rhys Plumlee.
The someone doesn’t have to be Kupp.
No offense to MVS, Plumlee, Jake Bobo, Cody White (re-signed Friday) and Dareke Young, but the Seahawks can’t show their cards by telling defenses, “Yeah, we’re running the ball and throwing to JSN, just try and stop us!” because they probably will.
Look no further than Klint Kubiak’s former team in New Orleans
The Saints scored 47 and 44 in their first two games (big play threat Rashid Shaheed had 169 yards and 2 TDs) but then New Orleans ranked 31st (!) in scoring over the rest of the season.
Shaheed went on IR and missed the rest of the year starting Week 7. Top receiver Chris Olave was injured in Week 9 and missed the rest of the year.
Lacking depth and experienced starting talent at wide receiver, the Saints were as bad as any offense in the NFL whether they had Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara or not. Even if they had Olave or not.
Best Supporting Cast
Ignore Kupp if all you can think of is “32”, “injury prone”, and “overpaid”. The Seahawks can’t just “go young and cheap” at wide receiver. It risks lowering the value of every single other player and stunting the development of Seattle’s offense as a whole. The Seahawks — who are not tanking or rebuilding — don’t want to come out of the first year of Darnold being asked, “Will you move on from Sam Darnold? And how will you move on?”
Unless there’s a trade, there are no free agent wide receivers that you are going to like more than Kupp or Stefon Diggs. They’re all “too old”, hence why they are available at all. But when a team opts to trade a starting receiver who wants too much money — which risks him becoming the next “overpaid Cooper Kupp” — these are the sacrifices they have to make.
The Seahawks have to sign or trade for a veteran in addition to drafting one or two wide receivers, that’s the only explanation. The problem is that not only are 2025’s receivers lacking first round talent, Schneider should also focus Seattle’s pick at 18 somewhere else on the team:
Do you know what Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, and Brian Thomas all have in common?
In addition to mostly starring as rookies in 2024, that crop of first round receivers were all on terrible teams.
Without any other objectives (like, say, winning), why not target your top first round receiver?
Maybe the Seahawks will target a first round receiver anyway, someone like McMillan if he’s available at 18, or one of the fringe day one picks, but that seems unlikely. That doesn’t take Seattle out of the running for a first round offensive weapon.
Is this the perfect year to test the theory:
Do first round tight ends matter?
Keep reading to find out if they do and which Seahawks coach has been a HUGE fan of this prospect since recruiting him, saying “He’s one of the best prospects I’ve ever seen”: