Seahawks draft: Things I don't think
What I DON'T think the Seahawks will do in the 2024 draft, 4/22/2024
Football fans want to believe that the NFL draft is like “Selling Sunset”, but college coaches seem to treat it like “Property Brothers”. Fans expect first round picks to walk into the league like perfect homes being sold at peak value that are ready to live in, while college football programs that are prioritizing winning over preparing players for what happens after school act as though draft prospects are fixer-upper projects that should necessitate a makeover at the next level.
Should first round picks be dream homes that only require a bit of personal style over a little time or full reclamation flipping projects that could boom or bust?
There doesn’t have to be a villain here like the “Bud Kilmer” head coach or the hapless GM who probably works for the Raiders, this is just our reality. I understand why colleges prioritize winning when they have 70 players who won’t even get NFL tryouts and maybe two that make some money in pro football, and I don’t blame teams for failing to hit on half of first round prospects given that the tape DOES lie in college.
Nobody knows what will happen in the draft or after the draft, but this is what I don’t think about Thursday’s draft.
I don’t think that colleges are setting up NFL prospects for success
We know that 98% of college players don’t stand a chance at the NFL, but even from the remaining 2% these top tier programs should have a higher success rate of blue chip prospects than we’re currently getting.
Every class since the 2021 draft, including this one, would probably be ranked “below-average” relative to other classes in the past 30 years. There are also some early signs that the 2025 class is even weaker than 2024.
College programs are always going to prioritize winning over development and I’m aware how important it is for the vast majority of players to do the same because most aren’t going to the NFL, but I still believe that somewhere something’s off due to the low rate of success we’ve seen out of recent first round picks. Especially quarterbacks.
Drafting a first round quarterback should be a celebrated moment. I can’t help but sympathize with jaded fans who only expect the worst after their favorite team picks one early this week. It’s not just Drake Maye, Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix, there is reasonable doubt for Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels too. It’s not “being a hater” to express skepticism over the best NFL draft prospects given the eroding track record of the NCAA and the NFL to come together close enough to increase the chances of success.
Should the Seahawks draft a first round quarterback for only the third time in franchise history, I will feel equally entertained (which fans shouldn’t take for granted) and terrified. The first names we think of when the Seahawks eventually do draft a first round quarterback will be Rick Mirer and Dan McGwire. (Maybe Kelly Stouffer even butts his way into the memory.) Mid-first round names of any team in recent drafts will be Justin Fields, Mac Jones, and Kenny Pickett.
If only we could feel that non-quarterback picks would be exceptionally “safer” but the 2024 draft is said to be low on first round grades in general and even lower on first round defensive players. Is Dallas Turner one-dimensional? Is Laiatu Latu healthy? Is Quinyon Mitchell going to make a successful transition from Toledo to NFL competition? Is Byron Murphy too small? Does Cooper DeJean have a position?
There could be somewhere between 10-12 defensive players picked in the first round this year, one of the all-time lowest numbers in draft history and it’s not because the offensive prospects are overwhelmingly impressive. I think outside of the first 12-15 picks, there won’t be a significant gap in grades between the prospects who go in the first round this year and the prospects who go in the second round most other years.
Former GM Randy Mueller noted on The Athletic Football GM podcast that this class also has a steep drop-off after the first 100-120 players, which implies that there will be a below-average number of prospects picked in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds, plus undrafted free agents, who are better than players who were picked at their positions last year and the year before.
The Seahawks enter with seven picks and only three of the first 102, but John Schneider might do better to leave with six picks but have four in the top-102. I think they either need to go up or go down to increase their odds of success because I don’t think that the prospects would make any GM feel that comfortable.