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Hawkman54's avatar

why not do both need and talent- Jackson Powers-Johnson-

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HD's avatar

I like what Scott had to say to use later round picks to trade up with fewer picks but say 5 picks between 30-120. Interesting approach I hadn't really thought of.

I have really not posted anything on the draft this last month and have just read and tried to get a pulse on options and draft strengths.. It seems offensive and defensive line has some options even into say round 4/5. There also appears to be some safety and corner potential in round 4-6. LB is not so hot. Make your choice by round 3 ( I have a sleeper for round 4-5 more later). QB is really a crapshoot after the top 5. I think there is a sleeper who could come in later rounds that gets no press and could be a PS guy this year. Both Seattle and McVay going after Howell speaks well for him. If the Rams wanted him that bad and we got him something is up.

Joe quite succinctly lines out some very interesting and realist trade partners for Seattle to trade down with. Adding picks in the first 100 I think bides well for this years draft strengths as already noted by Scott.

Do I think Seattle will drop to the 30's for the first round. I don't. Early to mid 20's at best.

Seattle will get a pretty good interior guy (I think Schneider might have thrown up a smoke screen this year with his comments about IOL). Two guys Seattle has a shot at also have played tackle. For my money it's Barton or Fautanu. It might cost Seattle getting a second round guy but adding 3rd and 4th round could still be done.

D line I like Brandon Dorlus out of Oregon. At 290 he is a tweener for either 3-4 or 4-3 but he has potential at interior pass rush. He also can bulk up next year and have a more 3 down role in the new defense. Interior pass rush is his strength. With Camernon Young and Hankins I think Seattle is looking for someone to work with Reed, and Williams. Morris is going to get a hard look with Adams as well.

IOL I like Christian Haynes in round 3. If not Mason McCormick N Dakota State round 3-4.

LB is really thin. I guess it comes down to somone one of the coaches likes that is anon to the rest of us. I'm going with Marist Liufau (ND) in round 4 or 5. He has some of the same measurables of KJ Wright. 6'2", 34 1/4" arms and he ran a 4.56 40. He could be a good project guy for next year with some reps this year and definately ST. I think he has a higher ceiling than PFF of NFL are giving him. (coverage as well)

At Safety I'm going with Cole Bishop from Utah. He's a 5th-6th round guy. 4.45 speed 6'2" 207 LBs . Pretty good in coverage and can really hit.

I have Seattle taking a RB in the 7th round. I like Isaiah Davis out of S Dakota State. 6'1" 220 power back. Nothing fancy just smash with some twitch and also as some receiving skills. Might be a 3rd down back option next year.

If Seattle goes for a corner say in the 4th/6th round I would think TJ Tampa from Iowa State might have potential.

I don't think Seattle drafts edge, which sound crazy but with Nwoso back and Bell getting a shot this year I think they stay the course unless someone falls to thems in round 3. TE could be a possibility in round 4 depending on what the lay of the land is . I think Mabry is going to the #3 this year.

At QB I going with Joe Milton lll in round 7 as a project. 6'5" 235 from Tenn. Needs work in lots of fundementals and reads. He has unique athletic talents and arm strength. He is slippery for a big man in the pocket extending plays. He is a real project but with Geno and Sam Howell why not? No one is is going to pluck him off the PS.

Seattle currently has picks Round 1: No. 16

Round 3: No. 81 (from NO through DEN)

Round 4: No. 102 (from WAS)

Round 4: No. 118

Round 6: No. 179 (from WAS)

Round 6: No. 192

Round 7: No. 235

They have the potential to trade for a 5th or add a 5th and a 7th with one of their 4th rounders.

This is all guess work and the real show starts Thursday.

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Bryant's avatar

Latu’s kneck injury makes me nervous. Kam and Chris Carson were bonafide hard hitting tough guys on either side of the ball and both were felled by kneck injuries. I loved watching both of them play and didn’t blame either of them one bit for retiring rather than risk permanent paralysis. I could be totally wrong and Latu is medically fine, but I’d worry more about that type injury than leg, arm, or hand injuries.

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Randall Murray's avatar

And there goes Wilson from Jets to Broncos. Since they already have a Wilson QB jersey and Jets paying his salary, Denver can save some money. SJ brought up Wilson and fresh start some time back.

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Randall's avatar

I'm really curious about the work being done behind the scenes by John Schneider (and his team) on how to improve picks when trading down. Surely they must look at previous drafts and say something along the lines of "when we trade down, our drafts end up being kind of shitty." Maybe they incorrectly estimate who will be around when their new pick arrives? Maybe they aren't at their best at separating players into tiers?

And on that note, what's the difference between trading up and trading down (from a player/tier perspective, or from a scouting perspective)? In both cases I would presume you're trying to get one of the last guys in a specific tier (well, at least with trading up). Maybe they are good at ranking the top 30 guys in the draft, but bad below that? Maybe they go for the home run too often (they definitely have a bunch of home runs, but a bunch of strikeouts, too).

Bottom line - I want so bad to be in the room during the draft, just to hear the conversations. That'd be so fun.

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Chris H's avatar

Harrison/Alt I had to noodle on for a bit, but at the end of the day, Harrison might be the most talented player in this draft, and Alt can't begin to claim that, so it would have to be Harrison. There is also some debate that Alt might not even be the best OT in this draft, so there's that.

Trying to pick a single player for the Seahawks in the first round is really hard, especially this year.

- They may not pick at all in the 1st round if they can find enough willing trade downs, and depending on how their board is stacked and who falls to them at 16.

- New coaching staff, and we have no idea what they think of the current roster, or what they value at each position, other than MacDonald talking about versatility a lot. Side note, they've kept MacDonald out of the press for a while now. Some of that is just to protect his time I expect, but some of that, I think, is so he doesn't say too much ahead of the draft. Speculation of course.

- They may pick at 16, or 22nd, or 25th, or 28th, or who knows where else. Picking a player without a draft slot is, well, hard.

- The deeper they trade back in the first round (if they do trade back) the more likely we'll see the Seahawks pull an upset, and pick someone well ahead of the consensus value, just because they evaluate differently. Of all the things I ponder about the draft, this is the one I keep coming back to. Who do most draftnicks have as a 2nd round player that the Seahawks might look at quite differently. Could be one of the LB's. Could be someone like Darius Robinson. Could be one of the WR's. Nothing would surprise me.

I've given up trying to guess. They have so much more information than I do, it's silly really. If you do pick a player SSJ, and you're right again, I will tip my cap to you and become a Super Joe. That's a promise.

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KHammarling's avatar

It's fun to see the voting patterns change over time. Last night when I looked Harrison was out front and now Alt is in command.

4.102 is fine for G/C. Whilst there is a ton of hype for the tackles in this class, the whole OLine class is deep. Personally at 81 I'd pull the trigger on Zinter if he's still available, at 102 he's definitely gone - and if he'd stayed uninjured he'd be in the 1st rd conversation (same as Payton Wilson). Into the 4th round is where I see us finding value at Safety and LB, whilst I struggle to see many remaining certain IOL options. But I'm ok with that, as I'm a lot higher than most on our OLine as it is.

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Scott M's avatar

Whoever we draft, regardless of position, needs to make the team and make the team better. Looking at our roster vs where we pick and who we likely will be able to draft, I'm left thinking we are not going to make a ton of picks this year. As we get into rounds 5-7 I just don't know if there is much likelihood of players even making the team, let alone making us markedly better. Not many holes to fill and coaches still need to figure out who's on the team still. I have used several draft sims and I like my results of trading back from 16 and trading up from anything 100-120ish or later. Make 4 picks between 30ish and 100ish or 5 picks between 30ish and 120ish....I tend to get 4-5 players with great chances to make the team and help out. Just my opinion...but for the love can we speed up the clock and lets do this already!!!! DRAFT WEEK IS HERE!!!!!

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Charlie Swift's avatar

Fun experiment. I too made choices based on who I thought was better. My overall thought is that for a team to compete for a Super Bowl the team needs multiple all pros. In the most recent Super Bowl the 49ers had an all pro LT, RB, WR, ILB and DE. The Chiefs had an All pro QB, TE, LG (injured but they are not there without him) C, DT and CB. Some are premium positions and some aren’t. What I know is the Seahawks don’t have any - I have hopes for Witherspoon, Cross (injured all of last year turf toe = 80%), JSN, Mafe Walker, and Woolen (if he can learn to tackle) but at this only Witherspoon looks particularly promising. I have harped on the foolishness of passing on a potential all pro on the interior offensive line just because of the position value because I believe the value has changed. But I am happy with any player that is special. To contend the Seahawks need more of those.

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Grant Alden's avatar

Without access to confidential medical reports on Latu and Penix (which I would be both unable and unqualified to read) I'm unwilling to advocate for either. Draft chatter says next year's QB class won't be as good, but I'm not convinced by the same draft chatter that this class is any kind of bargain. And Daniels was a marginal first rounder at the beginning of the season. At QB I want to see how Howell pans out, and hope we pick up someone as a UDFA or round 7 chance (I keep going back to Devin Leary because UK wasn't good, especially on offense -- three mid-round draft prospects, one an RB -- and he comes out of a pro scheme; and his OC is now a pro OC). One of too many mocks I've clicked on had us trade 16 with GB for, what is it, 36 and 40? And the picks there seemed as solid and hopeful and useful as anybody I've seen mocked to us at 16, only it was a two-for-one deal. We need a WR for the future and this is a deep WR class, with solid prop prospects dropping into the third round. The roster seems good...enough...for us to draft BPA. But what I want to feel at the end of seven rounds is that we got better, and that we made at least one position on the roster so dominant that other teams will have to adapt to us. Every. Single. Time. The more choices we have, the more chances we have to hit with a terrific player. If next year's draft is anticipated to be a dud, that would seem to make grabbing solid prop players out of this one a priority. Next year, maybe, you trade up because that's the best choice. But we have nothing to trade that gets us a blue chip prospect unless things fall just right.

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Nicholas Donsky's avatar

A pro scout, friend of the family, once told me that there isn't a significant difference after the 1st ten to 15 picks than the next 60

players talent wise. It all comes down to drive to be the best, heart, and love of the game. That can't be measured by physical metrics.

For every Cam " Bam" Chancellor there's a Ryan Leaf.

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Bruce White's avatar

If the rest of the roster were fixed up, Geno Smith is plenty good enough to get us deep into the playoffs. Only once we've shown we can get deep in the playoffs, should a new QB be considered -- and most of the new college QB's in our range are liable to be busts, or at least are not as good as Howell.

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David's avatar

My QB OK is based on the assumption that Penix is still available…lol

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Shaymus McFamous's avatar

I don't think BPA vs Need is an "either/or" proposition in the 1st -3rd rds (depending on where JSMM draw the line). I like JS's comment quoted in the article that he will go BPA early, then needs late. I agree with that basic premise. The thing is that you draft BPA, but there has to be a tier of players you consider to be "worth" your pick. If there is 1 guy, then he is the guy. If there are 6 in that "tier", then you go with the guy from that tier that fills the biggest need.

If we ignore need, then we could theoretically get good players that never see the field (or not enough of it, or don't reach their full potential until leaving) at certain positions (say, DB), while we continually underachieve as a team because other position groups are liabilities.

That's why I like the tier system. We balance talent with needs to raise our overall team talent as efficiently as possible. Then, as our team gets closer to a Super Bowl contender, we move more towards blind-BPA.

I tried to answer my survey questions through my tier-system lens, so every answer has the caveat attached: IF these 2 guys are considered in the same tier by JS, then I go with -blank-. It is then strictly a needs-based analysis since I removed the 1st variable by assuming BPA being equal. I inferred from the details of the Mitchell vs JPJ question that Mitchell is considered a tier-above JPJ, so I voted Mitchell in that circumstance. IF MM can get them all on the field, then I say goat's head and do it. If not, and all similarly tiered players are gone, then we can trade down as far as we can while guaranteeing we get a guy from that next tier.

I voted to trade down, but only in so much as we can get more picks in that top-120 (or whever JS's line is) good starting-caliber player range while minimizing our losses of picks in that acceptable range this year and next year. I would be ECSTATIC if we trade up, though. It would mean we identified an immediate difference maker then went to get him. It just seems that we don't enough desirable resources move into the next tier of guys above where #16 pick falls. So ecstatic as I would be,I might be even more surprised than ecstatic.

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Shaymus McFamous's avatar

The talent dropoff from 1 tier to the next is a factor, as well.

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Thomas Stewart's avatar

BPA versus need is not black-and-white. For example, Latu may be ranked higher than Barton, but they may be in the same tier/very similarly ranked. In this case I would prefer Barton, the lower ranked player even though generally I prefer BPA.

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Shaymus McFamous's avatar

I think you wrote the concise version of my long-winded comment at the same time! Lol

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Thomas Stewart's avatar

Ha ha! Yes, we had the exact same thought process.

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Paul G's avatar

* You can’t win a Super Bowl without great players, and the first round is a team’s best chance to add one

* By all accounts, Latu is by a wide margin the best pass rusher in the draft. I don’t quite see why 71% of respondents would pass on that for a guard, even given the medical history

* I’d rather have the best CB in the draft than the best center (although not everyone agrees that Mitchell is a better prospect than Terrion Arnold)

* QB in R1 okay as long as JSMM *really* like him. But this does mean waiting until 81 to get immediate help

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Grant Alden's avatar

As I typed above, without knowing what the teams know about Latu's medical history...dude retired because of a neck injury. Being wrong about that is a very big thing, and necks are kind of central to the work of a DL. That's why I voted against him. I would hate to see him leave on a cart two games into his second season and never play again. I will be thrilled for him if he has an HOF career. But the risk, from the sidelines, seems ridiculous.

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Paul G's avatar

To me, the risk of passing on a potentially outstanding EDGE—regardless of injury history—for a potentially outstanding guard is negligible.

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Paul G's avatar

OK, not neglible. But worth taking.

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