The strange part of this whole discussion is the reasons that Seattle shouldn't select Carter are the same reasons Seattle may be able to select Carter.
Carter is highest rated player based on two years of performance against the highest level of competition in college at a position where elite college success has directly correlated to on the field success, not just this year but over the past 10 years. Carter based on performance should be the number 1 pick in most years, but inefficiencies are very likely going to create an extraordinary opportunity for Seattle.
Carter is not going to be the Number 1 pick because Chicago roster is severely deficient and needs multiple players so Chicago traded the pick to Carolina. The trade plus the needs of Carolina dictate that Carolina is taking a QB.
Houston has the number 2 pick and also needs a QB, but given the historic bust rate of the 2nd QB in these situations, Houston may take a player other than a QB. Houston, however, is unlikely to take select Carter because of need at edge rusher and red flags. Red Flags - Unsourced reports that Carter had unspecified issues at Georgia, Carter has pled no contest to a traffic misdemeanor of racing. Carter - did not test at the combine, struggled in a linebacker work out with conditioning and gained ten pounds since the combine. All of these issues understandably would make a first year regime nervous but not necessarily because of fan base reaction but because the Texans don't have the locker room culture to bring in a player like Carter. There are no leaders in the Texan's locker room who demand respect. When a player needs strong leadership and Carter probably does what is needed in leadership provided by coaches. When Diggs and Sherman talked about Carter recently they weren't worried about the issues of his conditioning because Bobby would take care of it. When a future Hall of Famer is on your butt it is different. The Texan's need to draft players who will build their culture. The Seahawks still have their culture inside the building. Putting aside the read flag the Texan's Colts and Cardinals all need a premium edge rusher and there are two - Anderson and Wilson. The Colts and Texans also need a QB. Of course other scenario's are possible, and I am sure that the Seahawks have alternative plans if those come to fruition but in my view the most probable outcome is Carter falling into the Seahawks at 5 and the Seahawks selecting him.
The thing about Carter and Richardson - as I see it - is that their survey questions are inextricably tied to how one feels about PC/JS.
Do I want either player on the team based on my incredibly myopic and limited info about them? Heck, no! But do I trust PC/JS and their vision for the team - do I think they will only make that call if their interpretation of the data says it's worth the risk? Heck, yeah!
So if - given all that extra data they have that I don't - they choose to draft either player, I will put my faith in their process. They're imperfect people and good process doesn't always lead to good results, but I believe their track record supports the idea that they operate with a consistent system and a positive culture - one which has been a lot more fun to watch with far better results than most fanbases get and most years that I've rooted for the Hawks (it's off-topic, but inspired by that fairly lengthy fandom: re. the recent FG poll on the worst Seahawk draft pick ever, the answer is Dan McGwire, no question).
Can you imagine how sad it would be to be a fan of the Browns, Jets, or Jags, teams that routinely get beat senseless week in and week out? Or teams like the Cowboys, Packers and Raiders that expect to win every week and don’t. I like being a Seahawk fan and love being able to trust the management.
It's an exciting final nine days on the one hand. On the other hand, it's all dragged out way too long and should have gone down a couple of weeks back. But no point in arguing with what is. That's an argument one always loses.
I'm circumspect about all of our choices. I've no way of knowing, for instance, whether it would be smart to take Carter at #5 without a lot more information. Like you, I'm skeptical about taking Richardson there or even Stroud, and maybe I wouldn't be thrilled, but I'd hope for the best. And you know, if it doesn't work out, the grand thing is it's only football. If our season flops, there will be other drafts and other stuff to get excited about. Plus, it's all fluff compared to the things in life of real importance. Our spouses, children and other loved ones. Our great friends. The sunrise.
I don’t think that they would pass on Stroud were he actually available at #5. Except for not having a big arm, Stroud is that high-percentage completion low interception rate point guard that Carroll covets. “Point guard” is not a pejorative, either: Pete’s frame of reference for point guard is John Stockton and Maurice Cheeks.
Love the Saints trade honestly. Just that move almost puts us back at cap space with rookies picks and gotta love rooting against teams all years. I think all Hawks fans found that incredibly amusing. Plus its a fun write up to see who fans would pick with those spots. Ive wrote in comments before that anything that adds a 1st rounder next season is almost worth it this season as 1-5 is such a crap shoot and I love the idea of bolstering the entire team this season and just throwing 2 1st and the following season 1st for one of the QBs next season. Just for fun looking at the slot positions Ill throw my choices for fun. Would love to see some others in replies:
20 Bijan Robinson PFF 27
29 Mazi Smith PFF 33
37 O'Cyrus Torrence PFF 36
40 Ade Ade PFF 41
52 Tippman PFF 52
Also before people start saying who will be gone and where. I just went off PFF and drafted earlier than ranking or within 1 slot. Added there current PFF next to them.
OK, here goes. Below you will find a test mock draft to demonstrate out it works and its format.
Before I show my test mock draft, I would propose that Seaside Joe indulge us and dedicate a page, with whatever introduction he might want to make, to mock drafts. We could make up our rules as we agree to or just Calvin Ball style. Personally, I would propose we can initiate ONE and only one trade, and we can accept one trade offered to us.
Here is my test mock draft, as you can see, it explains the trades and the draft follows.
Seattle Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 30
2023: Round 2, Pick 62
Philadelphia Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 20
My Selections
5Seahawks Logo
Jalen CarterDL | Georgia LogoGeorgia
Right below the Name it says "Click to defend your pick" in very small print. This is where you can explain why you make your pick. You MUST remember to do it just before you make your pick. That is difficult. Witherspoon was gone and so I jumped in and drafted who everyone wants and expects us to take.
30Seahawks Logo
Bryan BreseeDL | Clemson LogoClemsonTRADE
Not my favorite player, but this is good value, and Darnell Washington is gone. This should be all the early picks I will make for DL.
37Seahawks Logo
Dawand JonesOT | Ohio State LogoOhio State
This is a commitment to the RUN and Pass Protection. Generational talent. As long as his health remains we won't be disappointed.
52Seahawks Logo
D.J. TurnerCB | Michigan LogoMichigan
Here is our Nickel Cornerback. Lucky to get him here.
62Seahawks Logo
Joe TippmannIOL | Wisconsin LogoWisconsinTRADE
We know they have shown interest in this guy and he's the best value here.
83Seahawks Logo
Tyjae SpearsRB | Tulane LogoTulane
Just in time I thought about RB. In a nod to Seaside Joe, this is for you Joe.
123Seahawks Logo
Zack KuntzTE | Old Dominion LogoOld Dominion
I want a TE out of this draft. This guy is raw or something, but he has athletic talent like no other. Check out his stat sheet. I mean his measurables.
To recap some of the #5 trade proposals I've made:
Trade it to the Broncos for Patrick Surtain and something else
Trade with the Commanders for pick #16, #47, and a 2024 first round pick
Trade with the Saints for #29, #40, 2024 first round pick, Alvin Kamara
Trade with Eagles for #10, #30
I had some smaller trades. But to get back a premier player or a future first round pick, probably need to go lower than the Eagles at #10, and I don't really think Howie Roseman would do that.
Agree about Roseman. He's built to good of a roster. He has the ability to build depth now after signing Hurts. I think Tennesse, Houston the Moons and Tampa are the 4 true options for a trade and add a future first rounder with potential to excite fans to root against next season. Plus all the qb situations are in flux. Reading other pages has become difficult lately because everyone is dealing with absolutes. "If we don't draft a qbotf I'm done with the Seahawks being the one that's most laughable. It's almost fun looking people up and seeing how they said the same thing last year about Willis and Ridder. The truth is NFL people have a clue. We don't. We can enjoy the guessing games. The drams and wants. I love JSN, Mazi Smith and honestly Jalen Carter. Odds are we may draft none. But last year was fun. No qb drafted. Lots of high upside guys. Rooting for another team to lose. Seeing a plan come together. Feeling hope like 2011-2012. Looking forward to the draft that always happens to fall on my birthday somehow lol. Let's just hope when we here Goodell say we have a trade. We hear a team that could absolutely suck next season lol.
Agreed. Some fans get completely lost in their own fantasies. Without the interviews, we know nothing. But it's fun to fantasize, just recognize reality.
OK, here is the best case I can make for Richardson. I don't have a strong view about #5 -- in my simulations, I trade down more often than not -- so this is not an endorsement of the pick. Just an explanation if it happens.
If one thinks that Seattle is a few players away from a Super Bowl, then filling in those pieces makes sense. Looking up and down the roster, I don't see Seattle a few players away from a Super Bowl. I think the team is a few players away from being competitive in every week, but to be a Super Bowl team you need either to be solid up and down the roster or have enough superhumans to overcome the holes. In Seattle's case, it might be easier to find a few superhumans -- especially one at QB -- than to construct an overall roster that can win consistently at the highest levels. This is the KC mode. They don't have the greatest roster, but they have a QB who can carry a team a long way. AR did that for years with a dubious GB roster.
So the question becomes: What is the likelihood of Richardson rising to that level? Is it ten percent? Would you be willing to spend a top-5 pick for a ten-percent chance of a championship-caliber team, if the alternative is, let us say, an eighty-percent chance of helping construct a roster than can make the playoffs but lose before the conference level?
I am not saying that there is a right or wrong answer. But it is a reasonable question to ask. And I can understand the thinking that leads to "yes."
I definitely think you always have to account for "What if this player or draft pick is worth 0 to you, how will your team respond?" Because the Seahawks spent all year thinking that they had Jamal Adams and then they didn't. So yeah you could basically say that the #5 pick could be worth 0 no matter what you do, so is it worth it to try your hands on a player of crazy upside but little chance to get there? It used to be those players were 2nd round picks. Trey Lance going #3 remains ridiculous to me. Did Trey Lance do more to help or hurt players like AR? We will find out.
Thanks Gary...very good perspective and I appreciate your leaning in.
This leads to another age-old debate. Would you rather field a team that is often or usually in the playoffs, but not realistically a SB winner (like the Seahawks have been)? OR Would you rather take a big risk on a potential SB caliber team carrying QB, at the expense of building a strong foundation around him, and potentially not going to the playoffs at all if the QB doesn't pan out?
I'm in the camp that would rather have a better QB (not great), freeing up resources for a strong supporting cast. That's based on the Seahawks history...I like that we are competitive every year and in the playoffs often. If they get in, I get jacked up and feel they have a chance every playoff week against any opponent. Probably naive I know. I acknowledge that hasn't been a SB winning formula for Seattle since 2013, and the KC formula is the perfect example of the other approach. I'm just not big on spending all my rubles on the QB position. I like the affordable QB with a strong team around him.
And I do think Geno can get the job done, if HE only has a few more pieces. I guess the short answer is I think we are close with this team, and a few more studs can get us there. More naive I know.
The only reason Richardson is in the conversation at all, given his football play, is his athletic traits. Those are impressive, but not enough to overshadow his football play. Why on earth would we cash in an extremely rare fifth pick on an amazing athlete who isn't very good at the football thing, especially when our defense has sucked for a number of years? AND we have a strong starter who may get even better...on a team friendly deal and with a probable good backup? Why would we do that?
Carter's "character concerns" aren't any different than all of our "character concerns" when we were that age...doing stupid stuff, being young, etc. Those concerns pale in comparison to Richardson kind of not being very good at football, in the most important position on the team. If we draft him, and he becomes the next Mahomes, so be it...I'll be happy as a clam. But no way in hell would I give up my #5 pick and pass on defense for a "project-athlete-qb". No way.
Furthermore (ooh...I'm getting fired up when I use the word "furthermore"), even if Carter is gone there's Anderson, Witherspoon, others. We can get top-tier defensive talent no matter what happens in front of us...we don't need to trade up and we don't need Richardson at #5.
I have faith John and Pete can get a disruptor out of any of the top defensive guys. However, I am much less confident they can turn an athlete into a reliable, NFL-caliber, better than 2/3 of the other quarterbacks kind of guy out of Richardson. And I don't want to wait 3 years to see if they can do it. Go with defense and plug the hole now. Rant over.
After Carolina picks Young, there are four defensive players that I'd be happy to draft at #5 (Carter, Anderson, Wilson, Witherspoon). I'm not great at math, but I'm pretty sure we can add one of these guys to the team if we just sit there and do nothing. I'm with you. Include me in the camp that would be flabbergasted (not "upset") if we take Richardson at #5.
Thanks Grant. What I'm hoping for is someone in the camp who WANTS us to draft Richardson to jump in and provide their perspective on WHY. Seaside Joe's poll says 48% (a slight majority) do want us to draft Richardson at #5 if available. Why...on its own merit? Why over defense? Why when his play is up-and-down and when he has so many flaws? Why when we have Geno and a serviceable backup? I don't feel like the Seahawks are wealthy enough in all the other areas on the field to cash in this high draft choice on an experiment. Why would we do that? I'm sure there are sound reasons, since more than half of us who said yes or no are in on Richardson at #5. Somebody educate us that don't see it..why? #throwingthegauntlet #Ihatehashtags
48% of Seasiders would not be upset because 82% or us trust in Pete and John. That's a bit different than saying that 48% of Seasiders WANT to draft Richardson. Kenneth points this out in the article as well, but I think we'd get different results with a slightly different poll question.
That's a good point. Goes to show how important it is how you phrase your question or statement Well...I think Kenneth needs to clear this up and ask a followup poll question: Regardless of who else is available (including Young or Stroud or Carter or anyone else, should the Seahawks draft Florida QB Richardson with the #5 pick if he's available? Hopefully this would be straightforward and get some folks that are solidly in the Richardson camp to vote 'yes'. Then maybe they can tell us why. I'm not against them or opinions or Richardson the person...just curious what drives that perspective. I learn every day and I bet I'd learn from someone who says 'hell yes I want Richardson!'
Nagging knee pain is nothing to gloss over on a guy who's being drafted strictly for his potential.
RG3 is the poster child for what can go wrong. His athleticism led Washington to the playoffs, he hurt his knee and because he wasn't a complete QB he never enjoyed success again. I don't think it's too difficult to see Richardson have a similar outcome.
I went to the playoff game where RG3 blew out his knee. Almost from the beginning, we couldn’t figure why Griffin was playing--he was that hobbled. Mike Shanahan’s name is still toxic in these parts.
What are the odds of Carter AND Witherspoon being gone at 5? That is within the realm of possibilities, but the odds are long, and so I remain committed to taking one of those two (if Pete and John concur, which should be included in all my opinions on the draft).
In the few cases where those two are gone, I'm trading down to wherever and trying to get Bijan with a pick around 10. I think that covers enough of the likely scenarios. Anything else would fall into the less than 2% chance of happening. John and Pete might not accept that level of unknown, but I think it is OK for us to go by.
After watching an analyst/scout who was covering Darnell Washington I have fallen back in love and want him at 20. I see him playing for 15 years and destroying defenses the entire time. He is an elite blocking TE. With limited pass catching chops. That may improve, but the way we use Parkinson is the way the Georgia team used him. As a run blocker and as a pass protector.
I would also like to take a flier on Zack Kuntz, TE, so we would be all in on massive TE's. Three 6'7" plus TE's. Commitment to the run.
Take Carter, if there is no Alabama more. Young or Anderson wolud make me jump and joy, Will Jr´s appearance in today´s Good Morning Football was a joy! He looked so intelligent and focused.
I can live with "take Carter," but no so much, "get Carter," in any sense of moving up for him. The risks are big enough at 5, IMO. But just like if they draft Richardson, I'm just going to have to remind myself that they know an awful lot more than I do.
The strange part of this whole discussion is the reasons that Seattle shouldn't select Carter are the same reasons Seattle may be able to select Carter.
Carter is highest rated player based on two years of performance against the highest level of competition in college at a position where elite college success has directly correlated to on the field success, not just this year but over the past 10 years. Carter based on performance should be the number 1 pick in most years, but inefficiencies are very likely going to create an extraordinary opportunity for Seattle.
Carter is not going to be the Number 1 pick because Chicago roster is severely deficient and needs multiple players so Chicago traded the pick to Carolina. The trade plus the needs of Carolina dictate that Carolina is taking a QB.
Houston has the number 2 pick and also needs a QB, but given the historic bust rate of the 2nd QB in these situations, Houston may take a player other than a QB. Houston, however, is unlikely to take select Carter because of need at edge rusher and red flags. Red Flags - Unsourced reports that Carter had unspecified issues at Georgia, Carter has pled no contest to a traffic misdemeanor of racing. Carter - did not test at the combine, struggled in a linebacker work out with conditioning and gained ten pounds since the combine. All of these issues understandably would make a first year regime nervous but not necessarily because of fan base reaction but because the Texans don't have the locker room culture to bring in a player like Carter. There are no leaders in the Texan's locker room who demand respect. When a player needs strong leadership and Carter probably does what is needed in leadership provided by coaches. When Diggs and Sherman talked about Carter recently they weren't worried about the issues of his conditioning because Bobby would take care of it. When a future Hall of Famer is on your butt it is different. The Texan's need to draft players who will build their culture. The Seahawks still have their culture inside the building. Putting aside the read flag the Texan's Colts and Cardinals all need a premium edge rusher and there are two - Anderson and Wilson. The Colts and Texans also need a QB. Of course other scenario's are possible, and I am sure that the Seahawks have alternative plans if those come to fruition but in my view the most probable outcome is Carter falling into the Seahawks at 5 and the Seahawks selecting him.
The thing about Carter and Richardson - as I see it - is that their survey questions are inextricably tied to how one feels about PC/JS.
Do I want either player on the team based on my incredibly myopic and limited info about them? Heck, no! But do I trust PC/JS and their vision for the team - do I think they will only make that call if their interpretation of the data says it's worth the risk? Heck, yeah!
So if - given all that extra data they have that I don't - they choose to draft either player, I will put my faith in their process. They're imperfect people and good process doesn't always lead to good results, but I believe their track record supports the idea that they operate with a consistent system and a positive culture - one which has been a lot more fun to watch with far better results than most fanbases get and most years that I've rooted for the Hawks (it's off-topic, but inspired by that fairly lengthy fandom: re. the recent FG poll on the worst Seahawk draft pick ever, the answer is Dan McGwire, no question).
Can you imagine how sad it would be to be a fan of the Browns, Jets, or Jags, teams that routinely get beat senseless week in and week out? Or teams like the Cowboys, Packers and Raiders that expect to win every week and don’t. I like being a Seahawk fan and love being able to trust the management.
It's an exciting final nine days on the one hand. On the other hand, it's all dragged out way too long and should have gone down a couple of weeks back. But no point in arguing with what is. That's an argument one always loses.
I'm circumspect about all of our choices. I've no way of knowing, for instance, whether it would be smart to take Carter at #5 without a lot more information. Like you, I'm skeptical about taking Richardson there or even Stroud, and maybe I wouldn't be thrilled, but I'd hope for the best. And you know, if it doesn't work out, the grand thing is it's only football. If our season flops, there will be other drafts and other stuff to get excited about. Plus, it's all fluff compared to the things in life of real importance. Our spouses, children and other loved ones. Our great friends. The sunrise.
I don’t think that they would pass on Stroud were he actually available at #5. Except for not having a big arm, Stroud is that high-percentage completion low interception rate point guard that Carroll covets. “Point guard” is not a pejorative, either: Pete’s frame of reference for point guard is John Stockton and Maurice Cheeks.
I agree that the draft should have been in early April.
But what would we be talking about now if not for the lead up to the drFT?
The Kraken making their first Playoffs and then handling the Avalanche in Game 1!
Love the Saints trade honestly. Just that move almost puts us back at cap space with rookies picks and gotta love rooting against teams all years. I think all Hawks fans found that incredibly amusing. Plus its a fun write up to see who fans would pick with those spots. Ive wrote in comments before that anything that adds a 1st rounder next season is almost worth it this season as 1-5 is such a crap shoot and I love the idea of bolstering the entire team this season and just throwing 2 1st and the following season 1st for one of the QBs next season. Just for fun looking at the slot positions Ill throw my choices for fun. Would love to see some others in replies:
20 Bijan Robinson PFF 27
29 Mazi Smith PFF 33
37 O'Cyrus Torrence PFF 36
40 Ade Ade PFF 41
52 Tippman PFF 52
Also before people start saying who will be gone and where. I just went off PFF and drafted earlier than ranking or within 1 slot. Added there current PFF next to them.
OK, here goes. Below you will find a test mock draft to demonstrate out it works and its format.
Before I show my test mock draft, I would propose that Seaside Joe indulge us and dedicate a page, with whatever introduction he might want to make, to mock drafts. We could make up our rules as we agree to or just Calvin Ball style. Personally, I would propose we can initiate ONE and only one trade, and we can accept one trade offered to us.
Here is my test mock draft, as you can see, it explains the trades and the draft follows.
Seattle Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 30
2023: Round 2, Pick 62
Philadelphia Receives:
2023: Round 1, Pick 20
My Selections
5Seahawks Logo
Jalen CarterDL | Georgia LogoGeorgia
Right below the Name it says "Click to defend your pick" in very small print. This is where you can explain why you make your pick. You MUST remember to do it just before you make your pick. That is difficult. Witherspoon was gone and so I jumped in and drafted who everyone wants and expects us to take.
30Seahawks Logo
Bryan BreseeDL | Clemson LogoClemsonTRADE
Not my favorite player, but this is good value, and Darnell Washington is gone. This should be all the early picks I will make for DL.
37Seahawks Logo
Dawand JonesOT | Ohio State LogoOhio State
This is a commitment to the RUN and Pass Protection. Generational talent. As long as his health remains we won't be disappointed.
52Seahawks Logo
D.J. TurnerCB | Michigan LogoMichigan
Here is our Nickel Cornerback. Lucky to get him here.
62Seahawks Logo
Joe TippmannIOL | Wisconsin LogoWisconsinTRADE
We know they have shown interest in this guy and he's the best value here.
83Seahawks Logo
Tyjae SpearsRB | Tulane LogoTulane
Just in time I thought about RB. In a nod to Seaside Joe, this is for you Joe.
123Seahawks Logo
Zack KuntzTE | Old Dominion LogoOld Dominion
I want a TE out of this draft. This guy is raw or something, but he has athletic talent like no other. Check out his stat sheet. I mean his measurables.
151Seahawks Logo
Kobie TurnerDL | Wake Forest LogoWake Forest
Time to bulk up on the DL.
154Seahawks Logo
Jerrod ClarkDL | Coastal Carolina LogoCoastal Carolina
This guy is an Al Woods replacement. Solid run stopper and two gapping NT.
198Seahawks Logo
Bryce Ford-WheatonWR | West Virginia LogoWest Virginia
Too late for a great WR, now we are looking for special teams and upside.
237Seahawks Logo
Ali GayeEDGE | LSU LogoLSU
An OLB or something, something.
To recap some of the #5 trade proposals I've made:
Trade it to the Broncos for Patrick Surtain and something else
Trade with the Commanders for pick #16, #47, and a 2024 first round pick
Trade with the Saints for #29, #40, 2024 first round pick, Alvin Kamara
Trade with Eagles for #10, #30
I had some smaller trades. But to get back a premier player or a future first round pick, probably need to go lower than the Eagles at #10, and I don't really think Howie Roseman would do that.
Agree about Roseman. He's built to good of a roster. He has the ability to build depth now after signing Hurts. I think Tennesse, Houston the Moons and Tampa are the 4 true options for a trade and add a future first rounder with potential to excite fans to root against next season. Plus all the qb situations are in flux. Reading other pages has become difficult lately because everyone is dealing with absolutes. "If we don't draft a qbotf I'm done with the Seahawks being the one that's most laughable. It's almost fun looking people up and seeing how they said the same thing last year about Willis and Ridder. The truth is NFL people have a clue. We don't. We can enjoy the guessing games. The drams and wants. I love JSN, Mazi Smith and honestly Jalen Carter. Odds are we may draft none. But last year was fun. No qb drafted. Lots of high upside guys. Rooting for another team to lose. Seeing a plan come together. Feeling hope like 2011-2012. Looking forward to the draft that always happens to fall on my birthday somehow lol. Let's just hope when we here Goodell say we have a trade. We hear a team that could absolutely suck next season lol.
Agreed. Some fans get completely lost in their own fantasies. Without the interviews, we know nothing. But it's fun to fantasize, just recognize reality.
I am now using the NFL Mock Draft Simulator: https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator
I'll get back to you.
If anyone wonders about the missing ten percent, I am allowing for the Aaron Curry world in which whoever is picked at #5 is a bust.
OK, here is the best case I can make for Richardson. I don't have a strong view about #5 -- in my simulations, I trade down more often than not -- so this is not an endorsement of the pick. Just an explanation if it happens.
If one thinks that Seattle is a few players away from a Super Bowl, then filling in those pieces makes sense. Looking up and down the roster, I don't see Seattle a few players away from a Super Bowl. I think the team is a few players away from being competitive in every week, but to be a Super Bowl team you need either to be solid up and down the roster or have enough superhumans to overcome the holes. In Seattle's case, it might be easier to find a few superhumans -- especially one at QB -- than to construct an overall roster that can win consistently at the highest levels. This is the KC mode. They don't have the greatest roster, but they have a QB who can carry a team a long way. AR did that for years with a dubious GB roster.
So the question becomes: What is the likelihood of Richardson rising to that level? Is it ten percent? Would you be willing to spend a top-5 pick for a ten-percent chance of a championship-caliber team, if the alternative is, let us say, an eighty-percent chance of helping construct a roster than can make the playoffs but lose before the conference level?
I am not saying that there is a right or wrong answer. But it is a reasonable question to ask. And I can understand the thinking that leads to "yes."
I definitely think you always have to account for "What if this player or draft pick is worth 0 to you, how will your team respond?" Because the Seahawks spent all year thinking that they had Jamal Adams and then they didn't. So yeah you could basically say that the #5 pick could be worth 0 no matter what you do, so is it worth it to try your hands on a player of crazy upside but little chance to get there? It used to be those players were 2nd round picks. Trey Lance going #3 remains ridiculous to me. Did Trey Lance do more to help or hurt players like AR? We will find out.
Thanks Gary...very good perspective and I appreciate your leaning in.
This leads to another age-old debate. Would you rather field a team that is often or usually in the playoffs, but not realistically a SB winner (like the Seahawks have been)? OR Would you rather take a big risk on a potential SB caliber team carrying QB, at the expense of building a strong foundation around him, and potentially not going to the playoffs at all if the QB doesn't pan out?
I'm in the camp that would rather have a better QB (not great), freeing up resources for a strong supporting cast. That's based on the Seahawks history...I like that we are competitive every year and in the playoffs often. If they get in, I get jacked up and feel they have a chance every playoff week against any opponent. Probably naive I know. I acknowledge that hasn't been a SB winning formula for Seattle since 2013, and the KC formula is the perfect example of the other approach. I'm just not big on spending all my rubles on the QB position. I like the affordable QB with a strong team around him.
And I do think Geno can get the job done, if HE only has a few more pieces. I guess the short answer is I think we are close with this team, and a few more studs can get us there. More naive I know.
The only reason Richardson is in the conversation at all, given his football play, is his athletic traits. Those are impressive, but not enough to overshadow his football play. Why on earth would we cash in an extremely rare fifth pick on an amazing athlete who isn't very good at the football thing, especially when our defense has sucked for a number of years? AND we have a strong starter who may get even better...on a team friendly deal and with a probable good backup? Why would we do that?
Carter's "character concerns" aren't any different than all of our "character concerns" when we were that age...doing stupid stuff, being young, etc. Those concerns pale in comparison to Richardson kind of not being very good at football, in the most important position on the team. If we draft him, and he becomes the next Mahomes, so be it...I'll be happy as a clam. But no way in hell would I give up my #5 pick and pass on defense for a "project-athlete-qb". No way.
Furthermore (ooh...I'm getting fired up when I use the word "furthermore"), even if Carter is gone there's Anderson, Witherspoon, others. We can get top-tier defensive talent no matter what happens in front of us...we don't need to trade up and we don't need Richardson at #5.
I have faith John and Pete can get a disruptor out of any of the top defensive guys. However, I am much less confident they can turn an athlete into a reliable, NFL-caliber, better than 2/3 of the other quarterbacks kind of guy out of Richardson. And I don't want to wait 3 years to see if they can do it. Go with defense and plug the hole now. Rant over.
After Carolina picks Young, there are four defensive players that I'd be happy to draft at #5 (Carter, Anderson, Wilson, Witherspoon). I'm not great at math, but I'm pretty sure we can add one of these guys to the team if we just sit there and do nothing. I'm with you. Include me in the camp that would be flabbergasted (not "upset") if we take Richardson at #5.
Thanks Grant. What I'm hoping for is someone in the camp who WANTS us to draft Richardson to jump in and provide their perspective on WHY. Seaside Joe's poll says 48% (a slight majority) do want us to draft Richardson at #5 if available. Why...on its own merit? Why over defense? Why when his play is up-and-down and when he has so many flaws? Why when we have Geno and a serviceable backup? I don't feel like the Seahawks are wealthy enough in all the other areas on the field to cash in this high draft choice on an experiment. Why would we do that? I'm sure there are sound reasons, since more than half of us who said yes or no are in on Richardson at #5. Somebody educate us that don't see it..why? #throwingthegauntlet #Ihatehashtags
48% of Seasiders would not be upset because 82% or us trust in Pete and John. That's a bit different than saying that 48% of Seasiders WANT to draft Richardson. Kenneth points this out in the article as well, but I think we'd get different results with a slightly different poll question.
That's a good point. Goes to show how important it is how you phrase your question or statement Well...I think Kenneth needs to clear this up and ask a followup poll question: Regardless of who else is available (including Young or Stroud or Carter or anyone else, should the Seahawks draft Florida QB Richardson with the #5 pick if he's available? Hopefully this would be straightforward and get some folks that are solidly in the Richardson camp to vote 'yes'. Then maybe they can tell us why. I'm not against them or opinions or Richardson the person...just curious what drives that perspective. I learn every day and I bet I'd learn from someone who says 'hell yes I want Richardson!'
Nagging knee pain is nothing to gloss over on a guy who's being drafted strictly for his potential.
RG3 is the poster child for what can go wrong. His athleticism led Washington to the playoffs, he hurt his knee and because he wasn't a complete QB he never enjoyed success again. I don't think it's too difficult to see Richardson have a similar outcome.
I went to the playoff game where RG3 blew out his knee. Almost from the beginning, we couldn’t figure why Griffin was playing--he was that hobbled. Mike Shanahan’s name is still toxic in these parts.
What are the odds of Carter AND Witherspoon being gone at 5? That is within the realm of possibilities, but the odds are long, and so I remain committed to taking one of those two (if Pete and John concur, which should be included in all my opinions on the draft).
In the few cases where those two are gone, I'm trading down to wherever and trying to get Bijan with a pick around 10. I think that covers enough of the likely scenarios. Anything else would fall into the less than 2% chance of happening. John and Pete might not accept that level of unknown, but I think it is OK for us to go by.
After watching an analyst/scout who was covering Darnell Washington I have fallen back in love and want him at 20. I see him playing for 15 years and destroying defenses the entire time. He is an elite blocking TE. With limited pass catching chops. That may improve, but the way we use Parkinson is the way the Georgia team used him. As a run blocker and as a pass protector.
I would also like to take a flier on Zack Kuntz, TE, so we would be all in on massive TE's. Three 6'7" plus TE's. Commitment to the run.
I've seen similar commentary on Washington and I think it would be a big mistake to draft a blocking TE who has heavy feet and bad hands at 20.
In Richardson's defense, 105 mph isn't very fast, especially on what is likely an open road.
So slower than Carters speed lol. Does that make him more of a Character flaw?
I didn't bring up the 105 mph because I felt that Richardson needed to defend himself.
Honestly, I kind of want him on my race team now.
Take Carter, if there is no Alabama more. Young or Anderson wolud make me jump and joy, Will Jr´s appearance in today´s Good Morning Football was a joy! He looked so intelligent and focused.
FTR I have always been and continue to be a supporter of Pete Carroll. No wishy-washy fair-day and Friday support from me!
I am Crossing every digit that, just like last year, the obvious pick comes to the Seahawks at 5, and that would be Carter.
I can live with "take Carter," but no so much, "get Carter," in any sense of moving up for him. The risks are big enough at 5, IMO. But just like if they draft Richardson, I'm just going to have to remind myself that they know an awful lot more than I do.
They definitely know a lot more than us but I dont really know if it really matters in terms of actual results.
Draft success seems random and fleeting. Ron Wolf is in the HOF for hitting 65%.
That means you and I can throw darts at the wall and may have as good of results as most NFL FO.