The strange part of this whole discussion is the reasons that Seattle shouldn't select Carter are the same reasons Seattle may be able to select Carter.
Carter is highest rated player based on two years of performance against the highest level of competition in college at a position where elite college success has directly correlated to on the field success, not just this year but over the past 10 years. Carter based on performance should be the number 1 pick in most years, but inefficiencies are very likely going to create an extraordinary opportunity for Seattle.
Carter is not going to be the Number 1 pick because Chicago roster is severely deficient and needs multiple players so Chicago traded the pick to Carolina. The trade plus the needs of Carolina dictate that Carolina is taking a QB.
Houston has the number 2 pick and also needs a QB, but given the historic bust rate of the 2nd QB in these situations, Houston may take a player other than a QB. Houston, however, is unlikely to take select Carter because of need at edge rusher and red flags. Red Flags - Unsourced reports that Carter had unspecified issues at Georgia, Carter has pled no contest to a traffic misdemeanor of racing. Carter - did not test at the combine, struggled in a linebacker work out with conditioning and gained ten pounds since the combine. All of these issues understandably would make a first year regime nervous but not necessarily because of fan base reaction but because the Texans don't have the locker room culture to bring in a player like Carter. There are no leaders in the Texan's locker room who demand respect. When a player needs strong leadership and Carter probably does what is needed in leadership provided by coaches. When Diggs and Sherman talked about Carter recently they weren't worried about the issues of his conditioning because Bobby would take care of it. When a future Hall of Famer is on your butt it is different. The Texan's need to draft players who will build their culture. The Seahawks still have their culture inside the building. Putting aside the read flag the Texan's Colts and Cardinals all need a premium edge rusher and there are two - Anderson and Wilson. The Colts and Texans also need a QB. Of course other scenario's are possible, and I am sure that the Seahawks have alternative plans if those come to fruition but in my view the most probable outcome is Carter falling into the Seahawks at 5 and the Seahawks selecting him.
I'm thinking PC/JS will go after the best defensive talent (like Carter) at 5 unless possibly Bijan. I kind of think that PC/JS already feel that they have Drew Lock as the next potential QB or at least lessens the urgency to take a gamble on a QB at 5. I recall PC once mentioned that he thought Drew Lock would have been the first QB taken in the 2022 draft.
The thing about Carter and Richardson - as I see it - is that their survey questions are inextricably tied to how one feels about PC/JS.
Do I want either player on the team based on my incredibly myopic and limited info about them? Heck, no! But do I trust PC/JS and their vision for the team - do I think they will only make that call if their interpretation of the data says it's worth the risk? Heck, yeah!
So if - given all that extra data they have that I don't - they choose to draft either player, I will put my faith in their process. They're imperfect people and good process doesn't always lead to good results, but I believe their track record supports the idea that they operate with a consistent system and a positive culture - one which has been a lot more fun to watch with far better results than most fanbases get and most years that I've rooted for the Hawks (it's off-topic, but inspired by that fairly lengthy fandom: re. the recent FG poll on the worst Seahawk draft pick ever, the answer is Dan McGwire, no question).
It's an exciting final nine days on the one hand. On the other hand, it's all dragged out way too long and should have gone down a couple of weeks back. But no point in arguing with what is. That's an argument one always loses.
I'm circumspect about all of our choices. I've no way of knowing, for instance, whether it would be smart to take Carter at #5 without a lot more information. Like you, I'm skeptical about taking Richardson there or even Stroud, and maybe I wouldn't be thrilled, but I'd hope for the best. And you know, if it doesn't work out, the grand thing is it's only football. If our season flops, there will be other drafts and other stuff to get excited about. Plus, it's all fluff compared to the things in life of real importance. Our spouses, children and other loved ones. Our great friends. The sunrise.
Love the Saints trade honestly. Just that move almost puts us back at cap space with rookies picks and gotta love rooting against teams all years. I think all Hawks fans found that incredibly amusing. Plus its a fun write up to see who fans would pick with those spots. Ive wrote in comments before that anything that adds a 1st rounder next season is almost worth it this season as 1-5 is such a crap shoot and I love the idea of bolstering the entire team this season and just throwing 2 1st and the following season 1st for one of the QBs next season. Just for fun looking at the slot positions Ill throw my choices for fun. Would love to see some others in replies:
20 Bijan Robinson PFF 27
29 Mazi Smith PFF 33
37 O'Cyrus Torrence PFF 36
40 Ade Ade PFF 41
52 Tippman PFF 52
Also before people start saying who will be gone and where. I just went off PFF and drafted earlier than ranking or within 1 slot. Added there current PFF next to them.
OK, here is the best case I can make for Richardson. I don't have a strong view about #5 -- in my simulations, I trade down more often than not -- so this is not an endorsement of the pick. Just an explanation if it happens.
If one thinks that Seattle is a few players away from a Super Bowl, then filling in those pieces makes sense. Looking up and down the roster, I don't see Seattle a few players away from a Super Bowl. I think the team is a few players away from being competitive in every week, but to be a Super Bowl team you need either to be solid up and down the roster or have enough superhumans to overcome the holes. In Seattle's case, it might be easier to find a few superhumans -- especially one at QB -- than to construct an overall roster that can win consistently at the highest levels. This is the KC mode. They don't have the greatest roster, but they have a QB who can carry a team a long way. AR did that for years with a dubious GB roster.
So the question becomes: What is the likelihood of Richardson rising to that level? Is it ten percent? Would you be willing to spend a top-5 pick for a ten-percent chance of a championship-caliber team, if the alternative is, let us say, an eighty-percent chance of helping construct a roster than can make the playoffs but lose before the conference level?
I am not saying that there is a right or wrong answer. But it is a reasonable question to ask. And I can understand the thinking that leads to "yes."
The only reason Richardson is in the conversation at all, given his football play, is his athletic traits. Those are impressive, but not enough to overshadow his football play. Why on earth would we cash in an extremely rare fifth pick on an amazing athlete who isn't very good at the football thing, especially when our defense has sucked for a number of years? AND we have a strong starter who may get even better...on a team friendly deal and with a probable good backup? Why would we do that?
Carter's "character concerns" aren't any different than all of our "character concerns" when we were that age...doing stupid stuff, being young, etc. Those concerns pale in comparison to Richardson kind of not being very good at football, in the most important position on the team. If we draft him, and he becomes the next Mahomes, so be it...I'll be happy as a clam. But no way in hell would I give up my #5 pick and pass on defense for a "project-athlete-qb". No way.
Furthermore (ooh...I'm getting fired up when I use the word "furthermore"), even if Carter is gone there's Anderson, Witherspoon, others. We can get top-tier defensive talent no matter what happens in front of us...we don't need to trade up and we don't need Richardson at #5.
I have faith John and Pete can get a disruptor out of any of the top defensive guys. However, I am much less confident they can turn an athlete into a reliable, NFL-caliber, better than 2/3 of the other quarterbacks kind of guy out of Richardson. And I don't want to wait 3 years to see if they can do it. Go with defense and plug the hole now. Rant over.
Nagging knee pain is nothing to gloss over on a guy who's being drafted strictly for his potential.
RG3 is the poster child for what can go wrong. His athleticism led Washington to the playoffs, he hurt his knee and because he wasn't a complete QB he never enjoyed success again. I don't think it's too difficult to see Richardson have a similar outcome.
What are the odds of Carter AND Witherspoon being gone at 5? That is within the realm of possibilities, but the odds are long, and so I remain committed to taking one of those two (if Pete and John concur, which should be included in all my opinions on the draft).
In the few cases where those two are gone, I'm trading down to wherever and trying to get Bijan with a pick around 10. I think that covers enough of the likely scenarios. Anything else would fall into the less than 2% chance of happening. John and Pete might not accept that level of unknown, but I think it is OK for us to go by.
After watching an analyst/scout who was covering Darnell Washington I have fallen back in love and want him at 20. I see him playing for 15 years and destroying defenses the entire time. He is an elite blocking TE. With limited pass catching chops. That may improve, but the way we use Parkinson is the way the Georgia team used him. As a run blocker and as a pass protector.
I would also like to take a flier on Zack Kuntz, TE, so we would be all in on massive TE's. Three 6'7" plus TE's. Commitment to the run.
Take Carter, if there is no Alabama more. Young or Anderson wolud make me jump and joy, Will Jr´s appearance in today´s Good Morning Football was a joy! He looked so intelligent and focused.
I can live with "take Carter," but no so much, "get Carter," in any sense of moving up for him. The risks are big enough at 5, IMO. But just like if they draft Richardson, I'm just going to have to remind myself that they know an awful lot more than I do.
The strange part of this whole discussion is the reasons that Seattle shouldn't select Carter are the same reasons Seattle may be able to select Carter.
Carter is highest rated player based on two years of performance against the highest level of competition in college at a position where elite college success has directly correlated to on the field success, not just this year but over the past 10 years. Carter based on performance should be the number 1 pick in most years, but inefficiencies are very likely going to create an extraordinary opportunity for Seattle.
Carter is not going to be the Number 1 pick because Chicago roster is severely deficient and needs multiple players so Chicago traded the pick to Carolina. The trade plus the needs of Carolina dictate that Carolina is taking a QB.
Houston has the number 2 pick and also needs a QB, but given the historic bust rate of the 2nd QB in these situations, Houston may take a player other than a QB. Houston, however, is unlikely to take select Carter because of need at edge rusher and red flags. Red Flags - Unsourced reports that Carter had unspecified issues at Georgia, Carter has pled no contest to a traffic misdemeanor of racing. Carter - did not test at the combine, struggled in a linebacker work out with conditioning and gained ten pounds since the combine. All of these issues understandably would make a first year regime nervous but not necessarily because of fan base reaction but because the Texans don't have the locker room culture to bring in a player like Carter. There are no leaders in the Texan's locker room who demand respect. When a player needs strong leadership and Carter probably does what is needed in leadership provided by coaches. When Diggs and Sherman talked about Carter recently they weren't worried about the issues of his conditioning because Bobby would take care of it. When a future Hall of Famer is on your butt it is different. The Texan's need to draft players who will build their culture. The Seahawks still have their culture inside the building. Putting aside the read flag the Texan's Colts and Cardinals all need a premium edge rusher and there are two - Anderson and Wilson. The Colts and Texans also need a QB. Of course other scenario's are possible, and I am sure that the Seahawks have alternative plans if those come to fruition but in my view the most probable outcome is Carter falling into the Seahawks at 5 and the Seahawks selecting him.
I'm thinking PC/JS will go after the best defensive talent (like Carter) at 5 unless possibly Bijan. I kind of think that PC/JS already feel that they have Drew Lock as the next potential QB or at least lessens the urgency to take a gamble on a QB at 5. I recall PC once mentioned that he thought Drew Lock would have been the first QB taken in the 2022 draft.
The thing about Carter and Richardson - as I see it - is that their survey questions are inextricably tied to how one feels about PC/JS.
Do I want either player on the team based on my incredibly myopic and limited info about them? Heck, no! But do I trust PC/JS and their vision for the team - do I think they will only make that call if their interpretation of the data says it's worth the risk? Heck, yeah!
So if - given all that extra data they have that I don't - they choose to draft either player, I will put my faith in their process. They're imperfect people and good process doesn't always lead to good results, but I believe their track record supports the idea that they operate with a consistent system and a positive culture - one which has been a lot more fun to watch with far better results than most fanbases get and most years that I've rooted for the Hawks (it's off-topic, but inspired by that fairly lengthy fandom: re. the recent FG poll on the worst Seahawk draft pick ever, the answer is Dan McGwire, no question).
It's an exciting final nine days on the one hand. On the other hand, it's all dragged out way too long and should have gone down a couple of weeks back. But no point in arguing with what is. That's an argument one always loses.
I'm circumspect about all of our choices. I've no way of knowing, for instance, whether it would be smart to take Carter at #5 without a lot more information. Like you, I'm skeptical about taking Richardson there or even Stroud, and maybe I wouldn't be thrilled, but I'd hope for the best. And you know, if it doesn't work out, the grand thing is it's only football. If our season flops, there will be other drafts and other stuff to get excited about. Plus, it's all fluff compared to the things in life of real importance. Our spouses, children and other loved ones. Our great friends. The sunrise.
Love the Saints trade honestly. Just that move almost puts us back at cap space with rookies picks and gotta love rooting against teams all years. I think all Hawks fans found that incredibly amusing. Plus its a fun write up to see who fans would pick with those spots. Ive wrote in comments before that anything that adds a 1st rounder next season is almost worth it this season as 1-5 is such a crap shoot and I love the idea of bolstering the entire team this season and just throwing 2 1st and the following season 1st for one of the QBs next season. Just for fun looking at the slot positions Ill throw my choices for fun. Would love to see some others in replies:
20 Bijan Robinson PFF 27
29 Mazi Smith PFF 33
37 O'Cyrus Torrence PFF 36
40 Ade Ade PFF 41
52 Tippman PFF 52
Also before people start saying who will be gone and where. I just went off PFF and drafted earlier than ranking or within 1 slot. Added there current PFF next to them.
If anyone wonders about the missing ten percent, I am allowing for the Aaron Curry world in which whoever is picked at #5 is a bust.
OK, here is the best case I can make for Richardson. I don't have a strong view about #5 -- in my simulations, I trade down more often than not -- so this is not an endorsement of the pick. Just an explanation if it happens.
If one thinks that Seattle is a few players away from a Super Bowl, then filling in those pieces makes sense. Looking up and down the roster, I don't see Seattle a few players away from a Super Bowl. I think the team is a few players away from being competitive in every week, but to be a Super Bowl team you need either to be solid up and down the roster or have enough superhumans to overcome the holes. In Seattle's case, it might be easier to find a few superhumans -- especially one at QB -- than to construct an overall roster that can win consistently at the highest levels. This is the KC mode. They don't have the greatest roster, but they have a QB who can carry a team a long way. AR did that for years with a dubious GB roster.
So the question becomes: What is the likelihood of Richardson rising to that level? Is it ten percent? Would you be willing to spend a top-5 pick for a ten-percent chance of a championship-caliber team, if the alternative is, let us say, an eighty-percent chance of helping construct a roster than can make the playoffs but lose before the conference level?
I am not saying that there is a right or wrong answer. But it is a reasonable question to ask. And I can understand the thinking that leads to "yes."
The only reason Richardson is in the conversation at all, given his football play, is his athletic traits. Those are impressive, but not enough to overshadow his football play. Why on earth would we cash in an extremely rare fifth pick on an amazing athlete who isn't very good at the football thing, especially when our defense has sucked for a number of years? AND we have a strong starter who may get even better...on a team friendly deal and with a probable good backup? Why would we do that?
Carter's "character concerns" aren't any different than all of our "character concerns" when we were that age...doing stupid stuff, being young, etc. Those concerns pale in comparison to Richardson kind of not being very good at football, in the most important position on the team. If we draft him, and he becomes the next Mahomes, so be it...I'll be happy as a clam. But no way in hell would I give up my #5 pick and pass on defense for a "project-athlete-qb". No way.
Furthermore (ooh...I'm getting fired up when I use the word "furthermore"), even if Carter is gone there's Anderson, Witherspoon, others. We can get top-tier defensive talent no matter what happens in front of us...we don't need to trade up and we don't need Richardson at #5.
I have faith John and Pete can get a disruptor out of any of the top defensive guys. However, I am much less confident they can turn an athlete into a reliable, NFL-caliber, better than 2/3 of the other quarterbacks kind of guy out of Richardson. And I don't want to wait 3 years to see if they can do it. Go with defense and plug the hole now. Rant over.
Nagging knee pain is nothing to gloss over on a guy who's being drafted strictly for his potential.
RG3 is the poster child for what can go wrong. His athleticism led Washington to the playoffs, he hurt his knee and because he wasn't a complete QB he never enjoyed success again. I don't think it's too difficult to see Richardson have a similar outcome.
What are the odds of Carter AND Witherspoon being gone at 5? That is within the realm of possibilities, but the odds are long, and so I remain committed to taking one of those two (if Pete and John concur, which should be included in all my opinions on the draft).
In the few cases where those two are gone, I'm trading down to wherever and trying to get Bijan with a pick around 10. I think that covers enough of the likely scenarios. Anything else would fall into the less than 2% chance of happening. John and Pete might not accept that level of unknown, but I think it is OK for us to go by.
After watching an analyst/scout who was covering Darnell Washington I have fallen back in love and want him at 20. I see him playing for 15 years and destroying defenses the entire time. He is an elite blocking TE. With limited pass catching chops. That may improve, but the way we use Parkinson is the way the Georgia team used him. As a run blocker and as a pass protector.
I would also like to take a flier on Zack Kuntz, TE, so we would be all in on massive TE's. Three 6'7" plus TE's. Commitment to the run.
In Richardson's defense, 105 mph isn't very fast, especially on what is likely an open road.
Take Carter, if there is no Alabama more. Young or Anderson wolud make me jump and joy, Will Jr´s appearance in today´s Good Morning Football was a joy! He looked so intelligent and focused.
FTR I have always been and continue to be a supporter of Pete Carroll. No wishy-washy fair-day and Friday support from me!
I am Crossing every digit that, just like last year, the obvious pick comes to the Seahawks at 5, and that would be Carter.
I can live with "take Carter," but no so much, "get Carter," in any sense of moving up for him. The risks are big enough at 5, IMO. But just like if they draft Richardson, I'm just going to have to remind myself that they know an awful lot more than I do.