Whether or not the Seahawks would have been better off facing Kirk Cousins than Fernando Mendoza because they’d know what to expect, the anticipation for Sunday’s game against the Raiders increased tenfold by Las Vegas’s decision to trade Cousins to the Vikings and begin the era for the number one pick in the draft.
There is perhaps no fan base that would’ve been excited to see Cousins walk in the building than the one in Minnesota.
That being said, it would be surprising — perhaps historic — if the Raiders are better off with a rookie QB in his debut start against Seattle’s defense than a vet who was arguably the best thing Klint Kubiak had going this season.
Since David Carr won his first career start with the Texans (and the franchise’s first-ever game) in 2002, quarterbacks taken with the top pick are only 1-15-1 in their debuts over the past 23 years. Mendoza will attempt to join Caleb Williams as the only quarterbacks in that time to start 1-0. Kyler Murray avoided losing and tied the Lions in his NFL debut.
Those quarterbacks beat really bad teams: Carr beat the 5-11 Cowboys, Murray tied the 3-12-1 Lions, Williams beat the 3-14 Titans.
If Mendoza wins his first NFL start against a defending Super Bowl champion with a top-ranked defense — and a Raiders defense ranked 32nd … Well, start writing the movie; That’s a bigger Raiders fairy tale than …
Fern vs. Gully
It’s difficult to know what to say about Mendoza because he hasn’t played in a regular season game other than going 6-of-8 for 48 yards in garbage time during a 45-17 loss to the Patriots on October 11. You can watch every throw from that game on this tweet:
It feels pointless to diagnose Mendoza’s performance on that drive because circumstances will be extremely different on Sunday. Similarly, his preseason performances were largely why the Raiders opted to start Cousins to begin with—Kubiak had not closed the door on the competition until September—and Warren Sharp noted that there were things in Mendoza’s control that gave cause for concern in terms of NFL readiness:
However, it is the chaotic environment of preseason and this time he’ll have Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, and players mostly capable of starting in the NFL.
This time the entire game plan will be designed for Mendoza, the Raiders focusing plays based on what he can do and what he can’t do, and specifically against a Seahawks defense that Kubiak knows very well.
Kubiak’s experience with Mike Macdonald couldn’t hurt Mendoza, but it will be up to the quarterback to not get spooked by the pressure, the simulated pressures, disguised coverages, and all the surprises that Seattle has in store for the 2025 Heisman trophy winner and national champion. Mendoza’s 2025 was the epitome of impressive, but the difficulty level of facing the Seahawks pass defense — first in passing yards allowed, first in passing yards per play allowed, second in third down conversion rate allowed, sixth in interceptions — in a quarterback’s first start is a challenge I can’t compare to anything that’s happened in my own life.
After transferring to Indiana in 2025, Mendoza joined a loaded roster of other transfers and threw 41 touchdowns en route to a perfect 16-0 season for the Hoosiers. Indiana had two 1,000-yard rushers (including 49ers draft pick Kaelon Black) and three top receivers (first-round pick Omar Cooper, fourth-round pick Elijah Surratt, and future first-rounder Charlie Becker) and the second-ranked scoring defense in the country (11.7 points per game).
Without Mendoza this year, Indiana has not fallen apart like many expected. They’re 8-1 — their only loss came against Ohio State by four points — and could win another national championship with a different transfer quarterback: Josh Hoover has 19 touchdowns and 2 interceptions despite no real interest in him as an NFL prospect.
This information isn’t meant to disparage Mendoza as someone who could become a good starter in the league. Although I do question his actual potential with his perceived potential — and all first overall picks are overrated to some degree — Mendoza could be the NFL’s Jalen Brunson, in proving that sometimes a surprising college superstar can become a surprising pro superstar too.
*maybe not as surprising since Mendoza was the first pick, but it’s fair to ask if he went that high because he’s a no-brainer #1 or because there wasn’t another quarterback in the draft even worthy of consideration.
However, we’re only talking about Mendoza’s FIRST career start so how can the Raiders’ decision to make this change in mid-November, replacing a 15-year NFL veteran who is among the league’s leaders in yards, touchdowns, QBR, and sack rate, not benefit the Seahawks more than it does Las Vegas?
There’s no tape on Mendoza? Fair. But who is going to be better at preparing for Seattle’s defense: Cousins, who has 176 career starts, or Mendoza?
I don’t think the Raiders would have been very likely to win this game with Cousins either, but there’s a chemistry between him and Kubiak that I doubt could be replicated this soon with Mendoza. The Seahawks aren’t the only ones who will be dealing with Mendoza in his first start—so will the Raiders!
Even more challenging for Las Vegas will be winning a game with a rookie quarterback when practically nothing else about the team is good.
The Black Holes
When I said that Cousins might be the most valuable player on the team, I really meant it. Bowers and Maxx Crosby could be better players, but they can excel while still losing every game. They just had the worst record last season!
The Raiders are:
31st in rushing yards/32nd in yards per carry
32nd in points allowed/32nd in yards allowed
32nd in rushing yards allowed/31st in yards per carry allowed
32nd in yards before contact per rush
32nd in runs stuffed behind the LOS
32nd in touchdowns allowed/32nd in yards per play allowed
30th in EPA/pass allowed and 30th in EPA/rush allowed
The Raiders are in some ways worse than they were last season when they went 3-14 under Pete Carroll, but one of the only positive changes was replacing Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett with Cousins, who — whether he’s a better QB than Geno or not — was clearly a better fit for the team’s offensive game plan and offensive coordinator than the previous regime and QB.
It has also helped that the four teams that Las Vegas has beaten are all really bad, but now the Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in SIX STRAIGHT GAMES: 30, 45, 33, 35, 33, and 38.
The plan to at least run the ball well with Ashton Jeanty couldn’t be going any worse, as Jeanty is the least successful starting running back in the league (3.2 YPC) and has lost opportunities recently to rookie Mike Washington, but they’re both going to struggle behind the Raiders offensive line anyway. I would also be wary of believing that because Cousins was rarely sacked that Mendoza will be rarely sacked; Cousins has always had a low career sack rate, but Mendoza is likely to find it harder to avoid those negative plays.
In his NFL debut, Mendoza quickly found out that players at this level are much faster:
But on 4th-and-4, Mendoza attempted to scramble and turn the corner on the right side for the first down.
The speed of regular-season NFL play, namely safety Mike Brown, caught him after three yards, though, and Mendoza’s day was done.
But get this, Mendoza blamed himself, saying he should have stayed in the pocket, taken a hit “for the Silver and Black” and “hit D.T. [Deven Thompkins] over the middle on a choice route.”
“That is totally my fault,” Mendoza said, “and I let the offense down on that play.”
If Seattle can mount a few early scoring drives, say 13 to 17 points in the first half, how capable will Mendoza be of orchestrating the other half of a “shootout” against the best athletes he’s ever faced in his life and no running game to back him? That wouldn’t be a shootout, it’d be a shooting.
I’m not rooting for Mendoza fail, even though I am rooting for the Seahawks to succeed. I do think that no matter what team you are affiliated with, the Cousins trade is a better opportunity for Seattle than it is for Mendoza. If Kubiak was upset about the team making this change now as many have speculated, it would have to be because the timing was so unfortunate for him personally:
The NFL scheduled his Seahawks reunion for the week after the trade deadline. He didn’t get to bring his personally chosen quarterback instead of the one that the Raiders GM chose for him. And Kubiak knew going into the job that he would be expected to help Mendoza become a star — that’s something that he knew even months before the draft — but not that he would have to start building his confidence against a Macdonald defense.
Without a running game. Or a defense. And their top-10 pick at running back seems to be getting benched. And their number one receiver has only ever had success in his four-year career this season with Cousins. And number two receiver Jalen Nailor has been a major disappointment.
The Raiders had so many opportunities this season to start Mendoza’s career against a bad defense. Maybe it’s fitting that the Silver and Black waited until they faced a Dark Side defense.
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When I first heard about the trade, the negative part of my brain automatically went to the same spot the headline did. But, pretty quickly, I realized that it would be so much easier to face Mendoza than Cousins, and I'm pretty comfortable that, sans multiple turnovers, the Raiders will be lucky to get to 10 points.
But I also didn't realized the Raiders defensive numbers were so bad - they don't often get mentioned with the other bad defenses. Now I'm more worried that if the Hawks don't get to 30 points I'm going to feel bad regardless of the final score.
The Kubiak effect (https://x.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/2118355152906363277?a=xFE0MhFTEi3dJ9k5VGI&s=20) has been something to see over the prior 3 years (Carr, Darnold, Cousins). We will even get to see if Cousins can keep up his numbers without Kubiak.
Now, Kubiak has to do it without a vet QB. This seems like a too large of a problem to fix. I really don't see how this game doesn't end up in a blowout.
Brock Bowers is elite and special. That will be fun. Mayer and Kolton Miller are solid. But other than that, there is no one on this offense ... going against the Dark Side. Yeesh
On defense, they may be even worse. Max is the only plus player and he may even have lost a step.
The Jets punted only twice. They could not stop Geno and the passing attack or the rushing attack. Geno picked on the corner back Eric Stokes all game (AD Mitchell went for 142 yards). Jets top two receivers went 13 receptions for 225 yards and a TD.
Hopefully, we can see some production from WR2 this game.
Go Hawks, looking forward to giving Mendoza (not high on) a warm reception to the NFL.