Seahawks rebuilding plan: Wave 2 free agent targets for every offensive position
Seahawks rebuilding plan: Wave 2 free agent targets for every offensive position
The motto of the 2022 Seahawks: Team-First
The mystery of life hit a new note for me this week: Never could I have imagined that one day I’d be secretly hoping that the Seattle Seahawks would trade for Jared Goff to be their starting quarterback… just so I could say that I was right about something.
I guess delusions of grandeur aren’t mysteries though. Just delusions.
However, I assure you that even if I end up not getting 100-percent of my predictions right (there’s time left to make the call to Detroit, Schneider), I believe my theories have a higher completion percentage than most because they are supported by:
Ignoring narratives
Avoiding rumors
Aversion to sensationalized takes
Sticking with what can be proven with empirical evidence and what’s in the historical record
Essentially, if it happens on Twitter, it doesn’t happen here.
I am also at an advantage with knowing what to expect the Seahawks will do, as you all are too, because it’s been the same damn two guys running the team for the last 13 years. And Pete Carroll doesn’t really veer.
As I wrote in another Seaside Joe post recently, trading Russell Wilson only further emphasizes that Carroll has a philosophy and nobody can make him budge from it. Seattle approaches free agency the same way every offseason and 2022 has proven to be no different in the first 48 hours: the Seahawks are one of a handful of teams left to have signed no outside free agents.
With few exceptions, Carroll does not get involved with first wave free agents. Many big names have been signed, quite a few remain on the market as I write this. There’s a heavy focus on what Seattle will do at quarterback, but I believe having high expectations for the Seahawks to do anything significant—beyond what I propose in a moment—will be a disappointment for you.
We’ve been through more than a decade of free agency with Pete and John, surely you’ve grown accustomed to the word “disappointment” as I have.
Here is my custom-built WAVE TWO free agency plan for every Seahawks offensive position. I will attempt to build the defensive plan before any major news breaks.
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QB -
The going rate for the first three vet quarterbacks signed to new teams (Trubisky, Taylor, Bridgewater) appears to be roughly $6 million per year. And those are the FIRST WAVE free agent quarterbacks.
My goal here, if I’m the Seahawks and I didn’t successfully make one of the trades I suggested in Tuesday’s top-3 QB options post, is so simple: I want a high-floor, low-ceiling, low-risk, one-year starter who provides Drew Lock insurance by being roughly as good as Drew Lock.
My goal is NOT to replace Russell Wilson. I don’t even think the Seahawks will want to try to do that. Maybe we could make this the motto of the 2022 Seahawks: Team-First.
Bring me a game manager.
Option 1 - Sign Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota to a one-year deal worth up to $10 million, with $6 million guaranteed
There was supposedly no free agent quarterback more coveted than Mitchell Trubisky, and he got $14.2 million over two years, with a guarantee that is still unclear. Tyrod Taylor got $8.5 million guaranteed over two years with the Giants. I would imagine then that a guarantee of $6 million with incentives to make as much as $10 million for playing time would satisfy the agents for either of these 2015 draftees.
Maybe the Seahawks wouldn’t even have to go that high.
I mean, does anyone else find it strange that Trubisky signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal last year, threw eight passes in 2021 and still managed to get picked off, and somehow signed a deal worth six times as much this year? I know that you can explain it to me, I can explain it to me, but isn’t it STRANGE?
Put it another way: If Trubisky was available one time for $2.5 million and available at another time for $7 million, and he was presumably the exact same quarterback at either time, wouldn’t you applaud Seattle if they signed Trubisky for $2.5 million and ridicule them if they signed him for $7 million?
If the Seahawks had the chance right now to sign Mitchell Trubisky for $2.5 million, surely we would all endorse that decision—but only after the NFL pulled a trick on fans by removing him from the field for a year as a way to somehow increase his value. It’s the same criticism I had for the Jimmy Garoppolo hype in 2017: He was a late second round pick, historically a no-go zone for finding a starting quarterback, but four years of being a backup (with a short stint as Pats started ended early by injury) made him the next Joe Montana.
So shouldn’t Seattle at least entertain the idea that the $2.5 million quarterback or the late second round/third round options are at least as good of ideas as the $14 million quarterbacks and the top-10 picks?
Option 2 - The Seahawks sign no quarterback of note, maybe only going for cheap QB3 options like Mike White
Remember Mike White from last season? The Jets quarterback who won his first career start in Week 8 by throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals?
Two weeks later, White threw four interceptions against the Bills and that was the last we saw of Mike White.
White is a restricted free agent who hasn’t been tendered as of me writing this sentence, but he could get the original (5th round) tender. In any case, I would say think of someone like Mike White, maybe not the exact Mike White.
But overall, maybe Seattle just doesn’t add a quarterback this week. This leaves them open to add one down the line, either in the draft, by trade, or after teams have assessed their final rosters in August and September.
There is no rush: Team-First.
Not an option: Matt Ryan, Baker Mayfield
These are bad suggestions.
RB -
As I write this, Chris Carson hasn’t been released and Rashaad Penny hasn’t been signed. If this remains the case for a few more dozen hours, it may mean that the Seahawks are hanging onto Carson for now, having failed to re-sign Penny.
Option 1 - Re-sign Rashaad Penny, release Chris Carson
Since Le’Veon Bell signed a four-year, $52 million deal in 2019, the free agent running back market has been dead. Melvin Gordon’s two-year, $16 million contract topped all free agent backs in 2020. Kenyan Drake’s two-year, $11 million contract was ranked first in 2021.
And despite the premise that running backs are “plug and play,” it’s been a while since we saw a shining example of a free agent in the last few years.
Drake and Carson got the most money last year, and both could be released. The success stories were total surprises: Cordarrelle Patterson, James Conner. And neither excels by just being “a guy in a system.”
Many of the top names on the running back market two years ago are top names again: Melvin Gordon, J.D. McKissic, Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde. Many more disappeared.
So really what does it cost for the Seahawks to keep Penny?
I’m going to stick with my original guess of two years, $12 million. The team would then release Carson to save $3.1 million, and then probably use one-third of that to sign a different market as a complement to Penny. Names: Alex Collins, most likely. Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, and Sony Michel also click.
Option 2 - If team can’t re-sign Penny, keep Carson and add veteran running back or draft running back on day two
I imagine that Rashaad Penny has a shot at being the highest-paid running back in this free agent class. Last year, Drake signed on the fourth day of the league year—so Thursday. The Seahawks must have expected that Penny would explore his options around the NFL, given this unique opportunity for him to be courted. It might take a couple more days before he finalizes his decision.
My expectation is that Seattle would ask Penny to give them a chance to match his best offer, and often free agents return to where things got good.
But there’s absolutely nothing forcing Penny to stay with the Seahawks and many free agents do leave as soon as they can.
In that case, I could see the Seahawks keeping Carson and upgrading their free agent running back search to include names like Leonard Fournette (who I predicted Seattle would meet with a year ago, and they did, but he returned to Tampa) and Melvin Gordon. The pitch:
Option 3 - Lose Penny, cut Carson, draft running back in second round
You know that it is a possibility, even if we aren’t talking about it yet.
Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III, Isaiah Spiller, James Cook are a few names.
WR -
Stay the course.
The Seahawks have no free agent wide receivers and I’ve already made my case for not trading Tyler Lockett. Seattle returns DK Metcalf, Dee Eskridge, and potentially drafts a wide receiver on day two.
Keep in mind that the 2021 Rams had Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Van Jefferson going into last year’s free agency, and then later signed DeSean Jackson, drafted three receivers (including Tutu Atwell in the second), and then added Odell Beckham Jr. midseason. By the second half of the Super Bowl, only Kupp and Jefferson remain.
Competitive teams need depth at receiver. The Seahawks just need to find out if they have any long-term answers behind Lockett and Metcalf.
TE -
I had predicted a new contract for Gerald Everett. I got the contract figures right (three years, $25 million) but the tight end wrong.
Do nothing
I see no reason that Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson isn’t enough. But the Seahawks could target Rams blocking tight end Johnny Mundt, a cheap veteran who has been playing for Sean McVay since 2017. We also can’t rule out another stint for Jacob Hollister.
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LT -
If the Seahawks re-sign Duane Brown, then there’s no question that I’ll be disbarred and my practice will be ruined. Seattle committing that much presumed salary cap space to a tackle who will be 37 next season doesn’t line up with a “reset” plan.
But I think the more important side to this is that Brown must enjoy being a free agent for the first time. A lot of teams need a good left tackle for next season. The Seahawks should not be outbidding them.
Option 1 - Do nothing
Seattle would only have Stone Forsythe, Jake Curhan, and Greg Eiland left on the roster if they don’t re-sign Brown and Brandon Shell. That’s fine.
Eric Fisher didn’t sign with the Colts last year until May 10th. That’s about the speed that the Seahawks need to drive in order to find their blindside protector for next season.
Most likely—most likely according to me—the Seahawks will draft an offensive tackle with their first pick. I expect maybe right tackle, but there isn’t anyone on the free agent market who necessitates Seattle being in a rush to sign him for the left side. When more time has passed, the Seahawks will add a veteran to compete with Forsythe and whoever they draft.
Option 2 - Sign Eric Fisher
His strength is run blocking. His weakness is pass blocking. That makes him a fit for Pete Carroll.
Fisher is 31 and if his limitations as a pass blocker dramatically reduce his market, the Seahawks might be able to sign him to a relatively cheap contract. They have some money to spend and it eliminates the risk of waiting too long to find an adequate replacement for Duane Brown.
Not an option - Re-signing Duane Brown
He stopped the bleeding after Russell Okung left in free agency, but Seattle needs the third round comp pick more than a 2022 left tackle.
LG - Do nothing
The team has given Phil Haynes the tender and while I have suggested that the Seahawks look into trading Gabe Jackson (my completely speculative destination: Rams), I still assume that won’t materialize. And maybe it shouldn’t.
If the Seahawks have to replace their left tackle, right tackle, and center, it may not be a good idea to keep the last remaining offensive lineman with more than three years of experience.
If Seattle signs a guard, I imagine it would be a practice squad player or a veteran with a spotty (and short) track record. Think more along the lines of Jamil Demby, Austin Blythe, or Storm Norton. Not Will Hernandez or Andrew Norwell. (Neither of whom are particularly good either.)
UPDATE: The Seahawks have signed G/C Austin Blythe
C - Do nothing
The Seahawks have to be over the moon in their evaluations of Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum, the draft prospect who is the most “Aaron Donald-like” of any football player in the class. That doesn’t mean that they will draft him, or any center, but Seattle shouldn’t feel obligated to keep Ethan Pocic or Kyle Fuller either.
The center market has proven to be fast and slow: any half-decent starter signs with a team fast, everyone else gets signed slow.
Wait for it…
The Seahawks could look into a trade for a center who has been a disappointment elsewhere (Falcons’ Matt Hennessy, Vikings’ Garrett Bradbury, Broncos’ Lloyd Cushenberry, Bengals’ Trey Hopkins) and open the competition up again.
Using the Rams as an example again: L.A. has never had great center play with Sean McVay has the head coach and last year’s Super Bowl center, Brian Allen, was considered by many fans to be the worst player on the team prior to 2021.
I support the Seahawks drafting Tyler Linderbaum, if that’s what they do, but center shouldn’t make anyone panic.
RG - Do nothing
Same as left guard.
RT -
I’m focusing on right tackle as the most likely (of several likely) area to be addressed in the first round of the draft. A run-blocking right tackle.
Unlike the rest of the offensive line positions though, right tackle could be a priority now and in the draft.
Option 1 - Re-sign Brandon Shell
Pete Carroll seems satisfied with Shell’s play and there won’t be a super competitive market for his services. The first right tackle to sign has been Morgan Moses, and he got $15 million over three years; Morgan Moses is 31 and he’s played in every possible game since 2015.
The Seahawks are rumored to remain in the mix for Shell and I don’t know that his cost will be greater than $4 million next season.
Option 2 - Sign Bryan Bulaga
By all accounts out of LA, there’s nothing much left to see with Bryan Bulaga. However, he doesn’t count in the comp pick formula, he’ll cost nothing, and he keeps some of that veteran coaching in the o-line room.
Neither Shell nor Bulaga represent “upgrading” right tackle. I believe the Seahawks will draft that guy. Since Shell and Bulaga are the types of tackles not likely to go for long without missing a start, it makes sense to bring in several bodies for this position.
Option 3 - Do nothing and wait it out
Hey do me one favor and don’t do nothing. Do this: Hit this:
Okay, what do you all think of my Seahawks Wave 2 free agent plan? Don’t me afraid to tell me in the comments:
Again off topic. Previously I commented on Kap and indicated there may be locker room issues besides the nfl blacklisting of Kap. I feel that comment is still valid. However after his workout with Lockett, I now feel that Pete should bring Kap in for an on field workout. What would Kap bring: athleticism, interest from not only seahawk fans but interest from all fans, inexpensive, one maybe two year deal, experience, is certainly a better alternative than Lock, continuing story of Pete's support of the underdog. Ok, so kneeling for the National Anthem was maybe not the best avenue for opening up a narrative BUT it DID open up a much needed narrative. By bringing him in you will get a small percentage of boo birds. So what, they are everywhere. The question is: can Kap compete at the NFL level again and would he bridge the gab for a 2023 franchise QB draft pick. There is only one way to find out and it won't cost us much.
This is why I don't run a team...at any level. I'm either too cowardly to make a choice or my own ego gets in the way. While I'm not overly fond of most of your options, neither am I totally opposed. What bothers me most is lacking conviction on direction. Perhaps if i had stronger feelings on what I'm trying to achieve as a team, it would give me better choices. So... are we rebuilding or what? I'm not sure just being competitive is enough.