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Cover12's avatar

Keeping score on building of this Seahawks roster...

Geno Smith in 2023 (his 11th season coming up) runs this offense Far better than Russell Wilson did in his second season. Flat out - the dude is a better player at this point of his career VS Russ was back then. I am not saying that the Defense is the same as the season we won the Lombardi, but another strong draft with a Free agent piece or two, we are setting the table for a run at hoisting the trophy after the 2024 season.

Remember, the 2022 draft will have two more seasons (and off-seasons) of development and the 2023 draft will have 2 off-seasons plus their growth from year one to year two.

Side note - Seeming minor Seahawk coaching hires have been Home runs. We brought in a QB coach as well as the Pass-rushing coach are each known league-wide as 'whisperers'. Cool.

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Deric's avatar

Interesting now that the details are out. 3 parts

A) new tweet: So it sounds like the base salary (25 M) of year 1 is fully guaranteed and 15 M of year 2 is fully guaranteed.

B) original tweet: On top of that, the original report was the ability to earn up to 52M in the first calendar year, so 52M - 40M gtd = 12M. I'd assume that would mean 12M in incentives for year 1. And the remaining 18 split across the remaining two years. So something like:

Year 1: 25M (floor)/37M (ceiling)

Year 2: 25M/34M

Year 3: 25M/34M

C) new tweet: What is throwing me off then is the new report that says he will earn 28M in year 1. Anyone else have better luck on how to tie this to everything else? Maybe this last part is timing of payment. So there's no use of signing bonus, just base salaries that are guaranteed. So he'll earn his 25M base+3M (no idea what this is) somehow in year 1 even though he's fully guaranteed to make a minimum of 40M

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Deric's avatar

Thoughts: Based on what was originally reported, I was certainly expecting a higher guarantee in line with what you said Ken. However, to me this sounds like the type of contract that is really fair to both sides in that: if Geno plays well and hits his incentives, he won't be underpaid. He'll have the ability to make 52M in the first year. That's in line with the top of the top. However, at the same time, if he plays poorly. We can cut him after year 1 and pay 40M over 3 years for his services which is 13.3M a year. Obviously, there's been a movement that regardless of player performance, you should pay them their worth/big contracts because it's such an injury prone sport. But this to me shows that Geno knows that regression is possible, he knows he could be set up as a bridge QB, so this gives him still a large chunk of change, but doesn't make it impossible for us to move on from him.

As a Seahawks fan I love this deal!

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Deric's avatar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aNgC7HeGL70&ab_channel=SeattleSeahawks

I think 4:20-4:50 from the video above captures everything about how Geno approached this Free Agency period.

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Tabby72's avatar

Not quite the contract that I had projected but at least he isn't getting any crazy guarantees (or so it seems). By my estimation, without details reported, Geno is affordable this year, market value next year, and either too expensive in year 3 or possibly even a decent value. But let's be honest, this contract tells evryone that the commitment between Geno and the team is really only 2 years and even that is questionable beyond year 1. He becomes tradeable next year and cutale in 2 years. So who is the QB they like from the weekend. Richardson, Hooker (for his interviews), Duggan, DTR, Bennet, or Bagent? As much as most people would hate to see it I think Hooker is in play for them now.

I loved Hookers answer to the media when asked about the single read offense. Something to the tune of, " I had more reads on every play it's just that no one could cover my first read so I threw it to them. Not my fault my first read was always open.". Which leads to an almost insane thought, drafting Hyatt in the first and Hooker in the late second or third. Hooker will sit all of year 1 anyway with his injury and then he can come in year 2 and at least have 1 familiar target to help him prepare to be the starter of the future. Not to mention Hyatt would become the perfect Lockett replacement and it is time we recognise that his time is running short in this league.

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Charlie Swift's avatar

If the Seahawks like him, Hooker makes a lot of sense. My thought though is that the Seahawks are still going to intensely scout the top four in case Young drops to 5 because of size or Richardson or Levi’s drop to 20 because the represent potential rather than demonstrated performance.

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KHammarling's avatar

We await details. $35mil AAV means nothing. $52mil obviously won't be the 2023 Cap hit.

But what this does tell us: JS isn't looking to trade up from 5, feels more likely he'll trade down unless things fall just right in his mind. We're also very unlikely to make a splash in wave one of Free Agency, and probably only dipping into the back end of wave 2 and 3 for some interesting project pick-ups and rotation/depth players. This also tells us PC/JS have confidence in the defence currently on the roster, and that another off-season of work can turn them from the embarrassing into at least the competent. To me it also says we'll hear about a few other existing contracts being re-worked just to create breathing space on the cap.

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MJDarby15's avatar

As others have intimated, the $52m in the first year of the deal likely includes between $30-45m in signing bonuses, so geno's cap hit is likely to be in the $25m range for year 1. With a few cuts and a Fant trade we'll still have enough room to bring in a couple of difference makers across both lines as well as the draft class etc.

Great work on the projections by Seaside Joe here!

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Charlie Swift's avatar

Put another way Geno’s contract is likely in substance the same as Carr’s. Geno gets his money this year with the bonus payments spread out over the next four years. Carr basically gets the bonus next year in the form of a guaranteed salary. The contracts are structured differently because the Seahawks have cap space and the Saints don’t. Sure looks like Carr’s contract established the middle tier. I am guessing that Geno’s has little less guaranteed money probably around 65 million with the difference being in performance bonuses.

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Largentium's avatar

For those of you panicking about the cap impact for this year, go back and read Kenneth's article outlining 1-4 year deals here: https://www.seasidejoe.com/p/geno-smith-contract-projection-seahawks-2023?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2FGeno%2520Smith&utm_medium=reader2.

I think you'll find the final structure to be really similar to this and acceptable. We don't know anything about void years or incentives or anything else, so we need to be patient and get all the details before making a final judgement, but it looks decent right now.

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Charlie Swift's avatar

Waiting for details but my best guess is the contact is likely a 40 million signing bonus with a voidable third year 10 million base salary with 2 million in performance bonuses. Probably will count against the cap as likely to be earned. Next year 18 million plus 2.5 million in bonuses. 18 million is guaranteed for injury and absent a complete meltdown down practically guaranteed based on the cap hit. Third year 30 million with 2.5 million in bonus. The deal is likely in reality a two year deal for 30 million each year with the ability to spread the cap hit over additional two years if released after June 1st 25. The money for next year comes from Jamal Adams. 22 million cap hit does not leave a lot of dollars. Some Seahawks are going to be released and others restructured. None of it is particularly tough but we are not going to be big spenders in free agency and rookies are going to have a chance to play again this fall.

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Chuck Turtleman's avatar

Seems a reasonable deal with the information we have so far. I was fine to keep or lose him but I am okay with a reasonable deal we can get out of. I’m definitely still in next man up mode at the position.

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

This could end up the team friendly deal we were hoping to get. Maybe it's really about 25 a year and only guaranteed for two years max. With incentives that could increase it significantly. Everyone would be happy to pay up if we get to the SB.

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Cover12's avatar

This is the 2nd year in a row that I was sure we would go with Drew Lock at QB and was wrong - so clearly I do not know didley. Heck, I don't know Bo Didley either.

But...

This can still be Very team-friendly. Imagine:

All we know for now is that the first 12 months can be as much as $52M - so...

What if it breaks down like this:

$20M guaranteed for the 2023 season, plus a $32M roster bonus for the beginning of the league year in March of 2024. If that first $20M was the extent of the guaranteed money, he will be an option away from playing on a 1-year $20M deal. The Hawks add a Prized rookie arm to the fold in the 2023 draft (Richardson, maybe?) and if they go with youth for 2024, plus either trade Geno or cut him as a June 1st designation to further soften the cap hit.

This could conceivably give us Geno for only a $10M cap hit in 2023 and a $10M dead cap hit in 2024.

However, since I am full of crap - this is very likely Not the case. I am intrigued to know those details though.

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Ray's avatar

So, friends and neighbors, where does that leave Drew Lock? Is he going to be a SeaHawk for 3M or or with someone else for five or maybe six million next year?

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Stephen Pitell's avatar

I think he will try to get signed by a team willing to let him at least compete for a starting job. Failing that, he might come back to us as a backup and student.

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Russ's avatar

We have a QB signed that had a pretty good year last year. Maybe a little extra cash for 2 or 3 improvements on the defensive front 7 and we have the #5 pick in the draft. I’m feeling pretty good about the possibilities.

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digitalbio's avatar

Well I was on board with you that they could not afford Geno. I feared the defense could actually get worse with no resources to fix it- anybody remember names like Taysom Hill or Corderro Patterson, how about Josh Jacobs. I can keep going, point is I guess no stud D-line veteran this year, or next, and how they manage this I guess will at least be interesting.

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Chris Snape's avatar

Key point it says $52 million in a calendar year. I imagine that envolves , All Pro, Sperry Bowl, 4500 yards passing, 70% passing. I imagine if Geno makes the full $52 million, every Seahawk fan will be happy. The calendar year is the interesting phrase

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Seaside Joe's avatar

Definitely hoping that the Seahawks make the Sperry Bowl.

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Jon's avatar

Man, you are super good at this.

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