How the Seahawks can be more than "O-Kay" with Geno Smith

5 ways the Seahawks can help Geno Smith look as good or better than the perception of Geno Smith: Seaside Joe 2013

I’m gonna make you an offer you can’t refuse: For the duration of this newsletter intro, I’m gonna make you…the Godfather. Well, the second one. Michael.

No, trust me, you’re Michael.

It’s the middle of part one and you’re headed off to Sicily to escape consequences for killing McCluskey and Sollozzo, leaving behind your critically injured father, your family, and your serious girlfriend, Kay. But she’s not THAT serious…that’s why her name is Kay.

Kay: “Hi, I’m your girlfiend!”

Michael Corleone: “…..‘Kay.”

When you go to Sicily, you’re “struck by lightning” when you first see Apollonia. She’s not “Kay”, she’s “Hellyeah!”….“Apphellyeahlonia”…You immediately ask her father for her hand in marriage, he says “yes”, and now it seems like all your cannolis are lining up.

In the course of The Godfather, we get to know Kay Adams and we barely meet Apollonia. But in Michael’s head, Apollonia is the star of the entire franchise; he spent a long time with Kay, introduced her to his entire family, he even insisted she was in a family wedding picture! And yet when he has to go to Sicily, he’s like, “We’ll see what happens.” We all remember this famous line from The Godfather:

As Michael, you’re engaged to Apollonia before you ever even spoke to her. But then basically something like this happens….

And after she’s “Apoll-blow-nia-up”, you go back to Kay and you’re like…

In The Godfather, our main character goes through both a tragic love story and a relationship-adjacent business decision in the same movie. Far be it from Seaside Joe to masquerade as a film theory expert, but Apollonia seems like Michael’s idealistic future: Not only can marrying her guarantee that Michael will have fully Italian children (Kay is “WASP”), Apollonia’s going to support him whether he decides to make olive oil in Sicily or if he goes back to America to produce a treasure trove of blood oil. If I recall correctly, Sonny Corleone referred to Apollonia as, “The Patrick Mahomes of Italian mob wives”.

Michael’s “lightning bolt” could be true love. Or it could be that he was looking into the eyes of a future with someone who wouldn’t judge Michael for the fact that he really enjoyed shooting that cop through the meatball. What was that cop’s name again?

Still wrong. Apollonia was also false hope and their relationship was a paradox: If Michael hadn’t done what he did, he wouldn’t have met Apollonia. But by doing what he did, he put himself (and by proxy Apollonia) in grave danger. However, even losing the love of his life doesn’t immediately drive Michael back to Kay. After “you” get back to America, you wait over a year before you reach out to your ex to see if she’s still single or if she’s started seeing someone else similar to you at the time, like Charles Manson maybe. She says yes she’s single, and you say… “Kay.”

Happily ever a few years after.

I’m a Kay, that’s OK

There is no more important relationship that an NFL team can have than the one between the franchise and a quarterback. This isn’t to say that other relationships are unimportant, or that teams can’t win without a “franchise quarterback”, only that the most common line we draw between success and a single person is something like, “Patriots: Tom Brady” or “Broncos: John Elway” or “Dolphins: Dan Marino”. We actually don’t talk that much about Mike Shanahan or Don Shula, even if that’s unfair.

And as fans we all expect to have that IDEAL future at quarterback available to us…if not at all times, then soon. As a fan, if your team doesn’t have your idea of Apollonia at quarterback right now, you’re always going to be expecting your team to be looking for Apollonia, which fittingly also presents another paradox: Teams often have to “blow themselves up” to get a good enough draft pick to be in position to take a quarterback like that, as 19 of 32 Week 1 starting QBs were top-12 picks, a number that should go over 20 by the end of the season.

Of course, most quarterbacks, including top-5 picks, end up being more like Kay than like Apollonia. “You’re fine, you’re good enough for me, I can control you, and if you ever decide to go against me I won’t hesitate to close the door on you.” Even some of the quarterbacks making over $50 million per season, like Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts, are also KAY. If Kay had ignored her moral compass, she could have been making $50 million per season too. (Wedding season, of course.) Not only that, Kays do win Super Bowls sometimes.

But you can never LOVE Kay. That’s not what Kay is to you, because while looking into Apollonia’s eyes projects your idealistic future together, being with Kay is a means to an end for selfish hopes and dreams. She’s just…’K.

Geno Smith couldn’t make it in the Big Apple, fuggidabout the Big Apollonia, he’s clearly a Kay. I said at the end of 2023 that I would be tracking the perceptions of Geno as Seattle’s starting quarterback from then until now as I wrote at the time (paraphrase) that, “The further away we get from these 2023 games, the better Geno will look in the rearview mirror.”

I’ve decided to not rehash last season’s issues (but I still expect people to at least try to remember them) and to just let 2024 play out as it will, as I don’t need to make detailed reminders of the frustrations that followed Seattle’s offense—and Geno—week to week and also through a contractual decision to keep him that not all Seahawks fans saw as the right decision or a guarantee. Instead, now is the time of year when all reports are positive, which presents another paradox: Can a QB be “overlooked” and “underrated” when everybody in the mainstream media says all the time that “Geno is overlooked and underrated”?

(Sharp’s is my favorite because he ranked Geno the same as The Athletic’s QB tiers article that he’s criticizing for ranking him 20th*.)

*I know that Sharp’s excuse for this is that he was ranking QB ROOMS, not individuals, but “QB ROOMS” are mostly meaningless. The starter is who matters, he’s like the President of the QB room, and Sharp doesn’t drop Patrick Mahomes by 8 spots because he’s backed up by Carson Wentz, or Lamar Jackson 7 spots because he’s backed up by Tyler Huntley. Sam Howell is, if anything, a better than average backup.

And that’s for sure the case in a lot of places with a Kay right now: According to Vikings fans (and many in the mainstream media), Sam Darnold is about to be “the next Geno” and solidify himself as a regular starter who was simply in the wrong five or six systems before. In Denver, Bo Nix will experience zero growing pains as a rookie on the Broncos. By going to the Steelers, Justin Fields will finish top-10 in MVP voting from the bench. It’s September 3rd, so right now everyone from Gardner Minshew to Will Levis is an Apollonia until he’s not…And in many cases, the real Kay will stand up by September 9th.

The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz ranked Geno Smith 10th in his pre-season quarterback rankings, which I appreciate for only one reason: At least he’s making his bet on Geno serious and in public, instead of talking out of both sides of his mouth like most. “Geno is so underrated! I have him ranked 26th, behind Drake Maye.”

I know some fans get a little bragadocious when Geno gets respect like this from The Ringer, but I can never figure out for what…Any ranking of active players right now is incomplete because the only thing that matters relative to the present moment is how they do in the future. Geno is 10th in some mythical, abstract, jumbled fantasy of a writer’s brain? I would trade Geno’s top-10 ranking for him being “the worst quarterback in the world” if it meant the Seahawks would win two playoff games this year.

Recall some QB storylines from the eve of the 2023 season:

“Sean Payton will revitalize Russell Wilson’s career in Denver”

“Ron Rivera’s bet on Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy pairing will pay off”

“You can’t blame Mac Jones for problems created by Matt Patricia, bringing back Bill O’Brien will do the trick”

“The entire Falcons organization is behind Desmond Ridder”

“Daniel Jones is a $40 million quarterback”

[screenshot intercepted]

“Ryan Tannehill didn’t have a #1 WR and now he has DeAndre Hopkins so problem solved”

Going into last season, NFL.com’s Nick Shook’s QB rankings had Jalen Hurts at 2, Russell Wilson at 12, Derek Carr at 16, Daniel Jones at 17, Deshaun Watson at 18, Justin Fields at 19, Mac Jones at 21, Jimmy Garoppolo at 22, Kenny Pickett at 23…you know what? Let’s just say that if the QB wasn’t ranked “above-average” at 15th or higher, there turned out to be an exceptionally good chance he’d be on the hot seat. The best QBs to not make Shook’s top-15 were Matthew Stafford at 20 (due to injuries), Baker Mayfield at 25, Jordan Love at 26 (inexperienced), and C.J. Stroud at 28 (rookie).

Essentially the ONLY QB in the entire NFL (from this list) to have gone from having a disappointing career to the relief of a second chance was Mayfield. That’s it.

The biggest risers were a former MVP (Lamar Jackson, who went from 9th to 1st), two former #1 picks traded for one another (Jared Goff went from 14th to 4th, Stafford was 5th in the latest rankings from July), Stroud, Brock Purdy, Mayfield, and Love. Hurts has dropped from 2nd to 14th. Stroud, Purdy, and Love would all be examples of players who were dinged only for lack of experience and evidence.

And that’s definitely not where Seattle is at with Geno Smith: He’s got a lot of experience and there’s plenty of evidence of who he is, even with seven years off. The positive traits that Geno has are all things that have been UNIVERSALLY ACKNOWLEDGED by every critic and follower, as detailed in Ruiz’s article:

Geno is accurate. Geno can make every throw. Geno is poised. Even people who don’t think that the Seahawks should commit to Geno Smith as a long-term starter acknowledge these qualities as skills he does possess. What I think gets me is when a writer selectively lists Geno’s traits without acknowledging any weaknesses. Or as Ruiz puts it:

“Good luck finding a real weakness in his game.” (Ruiz then lists about five or six weaknesses after that sentence.)

Geno does need a coach who can help make more of his decisions for him. Geno does need an offensive line that can pass protect for longer than two seconds*. And though Ruiz says that the Seahawks offense “has relied almost entirely on his right arm”, as if Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, and DK Metcalf are just lucky to be here, I think Geno does need his supporting cast even more than they need him.

*Of course, every QB is going to do better with a better OL, but certainly the elite Apollonia QBs mitigate OL issues either through a quick trigger or exceptional mobility and I don’t believe that Geno was “that QB” for Shane Waldron; maybe he’ll be more of “that QB” with Ryan Grubb as OC, however he’s probably never going to have an elite OL with in Seattle

And really ANY QB who plays for the Seahawks has to be able to play well against the NFC West, but Seattle w/Geno is 2-6 against the 49ers and Rams in the past two years (both wins came against the injury-depleted 2022 Rams) and we can all agree that the entire team has sucked against San Francisco recently. As in, the games weren’t nearly as close as Pete consistently said he thought they were.

But the thing about a team consistently struggling against a good team is that there is no greater gravitional force in football—the centerpiece that can overcome a lot of those issues—than a great quarterback. In four starts against the 49ers, Geno has thrown a total of three touchdowns and two of those scores came in the final minutes of a blowout.

No QB ranking will affect how I “rate” Geno Smith, but if the Seahawks at least move the ball and look competitive against their division rivals (Seattle went 0-4 against the 49ers and Rams last season, scoring 13, 16, 13, 16 points in those four games, comprising four of their seven worst performances of the season by EPA*) with Geno doing work at the helm, I’ll be the first person to give you a meaningless number next to his name like “10th” or “8th” or “6th”.

*As much as their defense could have helped them with a better season, the Seahawks went 8-2 when their offense had an EPA over +1 and 1-6 when they didn’t. In the one win, Seattle’s defense posted a (by far) season-best defensive EPA of +29 against the Giants.

A much better Seahawks team can win the division with Geno Smith

Now it’s not necessarily always a good idea for a writer like myself to openly question our favorite team’s starting quarterback…

Geno was dropped into the Seahawks at both the best and worst time to be a Seahawk: If he was any other team’s backup, he probably wouldn’t even be a starter. But he also wasn’t as lucky as Russell Wilson, as Geno’s time with the Seahawks has coincided with one of Seattle’s worst stretches of football as a defense.

In the same era that has seen Brock Purdy go 21-5 as the 49ers starting QB, San Francisco’s defense has been ranked 1st and 3rd in the NFL, respectively. During the 49ers five worst games as a defense in 2023, San Francisco’s record was 1-4. The one win was the NFC Championship game against the Lions, a second half comeback that actually didn’t require that much of Purdy; I’m a bigger fan of Purdy than most, but I’d be fine with it if you said that the 49ers could have reached the Super Bowl—and potentially won it—with Geno Smith.

Seattle has ranked 25th in points allowed during both of Geno’s seasons as the starter. The Seahawks are 4-13 in the past two years when they allow at least 24 points; one of those wins was OT against the same Lions team that blew a lead against the 49ers, and the other two from last season were dangerously close wins over two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Panthers and the Moons.

Understandably, we associate the hiring of Grubb as Seattle’s main point of emphasis when it comes to “making Geno a better quarterback”, but it’s not just the offensive coaches who have that responsibility. Because Mike Macdonald should know as well as any defensive coordinator that a defense can even help a quarterback WIN MVP.

Lamar Jackson, 2023: 457 passes, 67% completion rate, 24 TD, 7 INT, 8 Y/A, 821 rushing yards, 5 TD

The 2023 Baltimore Ravens defense: 1st in takeaways, 1st in yards per pass attempt allowed, 1st in points allowed, 1st in points per drive allowed

Other than rushing for twice as many yards, Lamar didn’t do anything last season that Geno couldn’t do. Lamar only scored 29 touchdowns (6 QBs threw for at least that many) and he didn’t lead the NFL in a single passing statistic. Why did he win MVP? The Ravens won the most games in the NFL (thanks, defense) and Baltimore’s average starting field position of the 32.8 yard line ranked first in the league.

Seattle’s defense ranked 22nd in takeaways and was on the field longer than any other defense in the NFL last season. The Seahawks average starting field position of 28.7 ranked 18th.

In the grand scheme of things, four yards doesn’t SEEM like much, but if you’re going to tell me that one team is four yards closer to the end zone…on every drive…that’s going to have a dramatic impact on a team’s scoring over the course of 17 games.

If Macdonald can turn around Seattle’s defense from being bad in the red zone, terrible on third down, awful against the run, mediocre against the pass, and meager in creating turnovers into a unit that is good at all those things like he did with the Ravens, Geno will have the head coach to thank for better scoring opportunities and more wins.

Not that Geno can’t grat-zee himself if the offense can continue to move the ball as well as they did in the teaser trailer for the “2024 Seahawks offense” that premiered in the final preseason game. QB School’s J.T. O’Sullivan liked it so much (despite JTO acknowledging last season that he just finds Geno to be kind of boring) that he did an episode on the drive this week:

4 takeaways from the Geno Smith QB School:

• On the JSN slot fade completion, O’Sullivan loved a route run by Brady Russell, in which Russell was able to ward off two defenders for the price of one; to the point that I’m questioning if we still haven’t given Russell enough credit for his potential

• Geno’s worst throw of the drive, a missed quick out to DK Metcalf, probably had more to do with a good defensive play by the corner than a bad decision or pass by the QB

• Hitting the checkdown to Kenny McIntosh while being sacked was not just poise and accuracy, but also a high IQ play; I think RBs could get even more targets this season than is being projected

• Expecting a lot more RPO/Geno reading a defender this season with Grubb as the OC

And a couple of my own observations were a) Geno throwing the Go to DK when he wasn’t open (yet) for a TD is the type of “ballsy” throw that I didn’t see enough of from Geno in the past, b) I’m still thinking JSN could lead the Seahawks in targets, and therefore also catches and yards. Hopefully now I’ve gotten even the biggest Geno Smith fans back on my side.

5 things the Seahawks can do to help Geno be more than just a-Kay

1 - Finish better than 25th in points allowed

2 - Make me feel stupid for being worried about the offensive line

3 - Wrap the offense around Kenneth Walker, who is probably the most skilled player on Seattle’s offense right now other than maybe DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

4 - The coaches must have a far better plan for how to beat the 49ers and Rams than what we’ve seen in the last few years

5 - Don’t let Geno forget that he absolutely was part of the problem last season; his personal improvement and development should be 100% separated from needing to fix the coaching or the offensive line or the defense.

And that brings me back to the old country…

If you can’t be with the one you love, love the one you’re with

I started this whole thing off talking about Michael’s relationships to Kay and Apollonia because it reminded me of the fleeting-yet-powerful HOPE that all 32 teams have before Week 1. How fans typically tend to blame the team’s problems on people or even philosophies that are “gone” because they have been fired, traded, released, or eradicated.

“Gosh, the Seahawks offense was so bad last year. Good riddance to Shane Waldron! Welcome (back) to Seattle, Ryan Grubb!”

If that sounds familiar, it’s because it was once framed as this:

“Gosh, the Seahawks offense was so bad lsat year. Good riddance to Brian Schottenheimer! Welcome, Shane Waldron!”

We could do the same thing with offensive line coaches (Tom Cable to Mike Solari to Andy Dickerson to Scott Huff)…

Or centers or guards or edge rushers or defensive coaches or running backs….Had the Seahawks kept Pete Carroll and Waldron, released Geno Smith, and then traded up for Michael Penix, would there not instead be a contingent of those saying, “Finally, all the problems existed with Geno and because this new quarterback is new, he won’t have those problems.”

But doesn’t that sound way too convenient to fit within real life?

Before Michael leaves America, everything he does indicates he’s going to try and stay legitimate, marry Kay, and be a Corleone from afar. Yet as soon as he’s in Sicily—not near Kay—he decides in literally a moment that he’s not going to go back to Kay and he’s going to marry the first beautiful woman that he sees.

It’s one of those things where if the Seahawks had an “Apollonia” on their roster (which is basically what Seattle hopes will happen every time they acquier somebody like Drew Lock or Sam Howell, even if it’s unlikely because Russell Wilson was once an “unlikely Apollonia”), the entire city would flip on Geno in a millisecond. So would Steven Ruiz. Especially Steven Ruiz.

In an instant, Michael thought he had escaped all of his problems back in America—gravely serious life complications—simply because they weren’t perceivable to him anymore. The only thing he could see was Apollonia and she looked super hot compared to Marlon Brando in a hospital bed and having hits out from both the mafia and the police force.

That’s all well and good—for a fleeting moment. It all came crashing down shortly thereafter because Michael couldn’t escape his problems by running away from them. One of two things was inevitable: Either he would die or his new life would die. He couldn’t have both.

Who did Michael turn to when his new life blew up in his face?

Close…

One thing we must all accept is that whoever is on the Seahawks now is on the Seahawks for now. The 2024 roster has been 93% set for months, it is extremely unlikely that we’ll see any significant updates at quarterback this season unless it is going to Howell, and he’s not even a Kay right now, let alone an Apollonia. Forget about love at first sight, Howell still needs to prove to be marriage material.

We can’t look back at who used to be on the Seahawks anymore, they don’t matter relative to the current Seahawks. We also can’t assume that all problems were fired, released, or traded. Issues are guaranteed to reveal themselves—old and new—starting on Sunday against the Broncos, at which point I know we’ll be able to get into some real opinions of how successful Geno Smith—and all current Seahawks—will be in this new era of Seattle football.

If it works, the Seahawks might finally be legitimate again. If it blows up in their faces, sometimes that’s the price you pay for letting your feelings get in the way of your business.

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