According to Football Outsiders, Geno is a top 10 QB in DYAR and 11th by DVOA. Not bad. His ALEX which was bottom 10 improved to 18th after the Atlanta game. He was the 4th best QB of the weekend by DYAR, and the 3th best passer by the same metric.
Geno has a better EPA/play than Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Brady and Stafford. He's the best 1st half QB in the league by EPA+CPOE. Only Josh Allen completed a greater percentage of passes in the first half, and those had a higher expected completion percentage. And the Seahawks are the 5th best team in dropback EPA/play in the first half.
The problem with Geno seems to be his variance. He gives you Tom Brady in the first half and Justin Fields in the second (but he didn't cost 2 firsts like Fields). He still looks better than any QBs acquired this year so far, and this includes Russ (not for long, I believe), and cost nothing.
On second halfs Geno is the 5th worst QB by EPA/play. The Seahawks are the worst team in EPA/dropback.
Your even keel approach is why I read you. The whole moaning, bitching, ranting, told-you-so, anger thing is too much for my stomach and rarely offers a gleam of insight. I just looked up "miragian." Dictionary.com is unaware of it and my computer or Substack thinks you mean Moravian. I think you're gonna get credit for inventing a word. You and Shakespeare, huh?
Having seen young teams with talent and ugly starts to a season turn things around and finish strong, I'm not ready to consign the Hawks to a losing season...yet.
If defense can find its groove, the running game hit it's potential, get a 'grip' on tackling, cut back on penalties and the rooks continue to improve, this team could surprise a lot of folks. A lot of if's huh?
I needed some positivity (so thank you!), and as always you provide great perspective and insight. FWIW I also googled miragian!
I'm curious if you have any insights on why the second half offense is so bad / inept? I have no data to back up my feelings, but it has a familiar feeling to recent years where we get out to a nice lead and become overly conservative (try to not lose) vs. continuing to try and score points. Or it could be the defense is making adjustments and the offensive game plan isn't adjusting to the adjustments!
While I recognize Pete is an amazing leader and motivator, and agree with their approach to the offseason. I am growing increasingly concerned about his ability to adapt to how the game has changed, and how this could impact the Seahawks ability to quickly return to their winning ways.
(Banned)Sep 27, 2022·edited Sep 27, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
I felt a lot of fans were way too optimistic in the off season and was extremely pessimistic heading into week one. That freak win forced me to admit the error of my ways. But the error was simply forgetting that, in the NFL, on any particular day, almost anything can happen.
I agree that Geno has exceeded expectations and not by a little. Guess what? He's still Geno. I'm not pessimistic about this franchise or even this season. I simply accept that we'll lose a lot and, frankly, have no problem with it. I'm well aware that tanking guarantees nothing in the draft. But it maximizes our chances of getting some really good players. So if there's a year to tank, this would seem to be it.
I guess the next game against the Lions on the road will be telling. Perhaps we'll see Seattle perform beyond expectations and win. If not, I think a three win season sounds about right. If so, we could be up to five or maybe six (if rainbows and unicorns are for reals).
My initial prediction was 3 to 6 wins, which I downgraded to 2 to 5 when I realized we really were starting Geno. Since then, Geno has shown he's got at least a bit of what it takes to QB in the NFL. But 2 to 5 still feels about right. Have to assume we can pull out at least one more win somewhere. The Saints suck. The Giants aren't all that. Panthers? Jets? Those are the four that seem most likely and, as we know, anything can happen on any given day in the NFL. Since once upon a time, a long time ago in a land far, far away (in other words, as recently as last season), we had SF's number -- so perhaps in Seattle.
Thank you for the fully-formed reasoned opinion. I appreciate what Waldron has done with Geno, AND:
if the team continues to score nothing in the second half, that is a Waldron problem. He may be great at drawing up plays, schemes, and tactics, and work with the talent he has, but if he cannot adjust in-game, the team will drown. The NFL is just too good and the coaches too smart. This was one thing Bevell did well, and Schotty was pretty good at it too. Often it's just a tweak or two, and I truly hope it's something he develops over the course of the year.
Sep 27, 2022·edited Sep 27, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
Agree that PCJS handled the QB situation adeptly once it became clear that Russell Wilson wanted out. (Although I’m less impressed with the anonymous sneers from the FO that Russell’s skills are declining: To the extent that that is so, it began with the torn MCL playing behind a line anchored by Bradley F. Sowell and J’Marcus F. Webb—i.e., it’s not like the FO’s hands are clean.) What they should not have done is raise expectations by insisting that this team can compete with anyone. That’s what is driving much of the bad feeling that is out there.
I have to admit Geno's play so far has softened my stance on starting Lock instead. I still understand the decision to not see what we have in Lock but Geno's been playing well.
What crossed my mind is how many times in the past we've talked about how the Seahawks were such a slow-starting team that got themselves into a deep hole at halftime and that has reversed course dramatically this season. I have to wonder if the problem wasn't Russ the whole time. And who knows, if the 2nd half offense improves (and why couldn't it) and the defense gels (again, why not?) then this team might actually be fairly decent by the end of the season.
Here is an interesting idea. Two out of three games we have seen Geno do well in the first half only to have the other team make adjustments and shut the Hawk's offense down in the second half. I might think about bringing Drew Lock in for the second half of the next game to negate their adjustments. Change up the offense at halftime to fit Lock's skillset. Maybe we catch them off guard and put up some big offense. Then make it a thing so that no one knows which QB is playing in the second half of games. A bit radical but this team requires out of the box thinking.
I like how most of Seahawks Twitter preached patience, and this being a year to tank, but when we lose games, everyone goes bat sh*t crazy. I agree with you, I was under the impression we had a great season and it's shaping up that the moves made in the off-season we're good moves. Some moves of years past aren't looking so good to start but happy about the development!
Scoring involves more than the QB. The interception was on 4th down with Geno on the run. The Hawks are 21st in passing but 29th in rushing and 28th overall offense. It seems to me there is more correlation between the lack of rushing yards and inadequate scoring than with the passing game. 24 points should be a win. How would you feel today if we were 2-1 because the defense did its job?
According to Football Outsiders, Geno is a top 10 QB in DYAR and 11th by DVOA. Not bad. His ALEX which was bottom 10 improved to 18th after the Atlanta game. He was the 4th best QB of the weekend by DYAR, and the 3th best passer by the same metric.
Geno has a better EPA/play than Burrow, Herbert, Rodgers, Brady and Stafford. He's the best 1st half QB in the league by EPA+CPOE. Only Josh Allen completed a greater percentage of passes in the first half, and those had a higher expected completion percentage. And the Seahawks are the 5th best team in dropback EPA/play in the first half.
The problem with Geno seems to be his variance. He gives you Tom Brady in the first half and Justin Fields in the second (but he didn't cost 2 firsts like Fields). He still looks better than any QBs acquired this year so far, and this includes Russ (not for long, I believe), and cost nothing.
On second halfs Geno is the 5th worst QB by EPA/play. The Seahawks are the worst team in EPA/dropback.
Your even keel approach is why I read you. The whole moaning, bitching, ranting, told-you-so, anger thing is too much for my stomach and rarely offers a gleam of insight. I just looked up "miragian." Dictionary.com is unaware of it and my computer or Substack thinks you mean Moravian. I think you're gonna get credit for inventing a word. You and Shakespeare, huh?
Having seen young teams with talent and ugly starts to a season turn things around and finish strong, I'm not ready to consign the Hawks to a losing season...yet.
If defense can find its groove, the running game hit it's potential, get a 'grip' on tackling, cut back on penalties and the rooks continue to improve, this team could surprise a lot of folks. A lot of if's huh?
Just get'r done right?
Gotta go bid on a bridge now...
I needed some positivity (so thank you!), and as always you provide great perspective and insight. FWIW I also googled miragian!
I'm curious if you have any insights on why the second half offense is so bad / inept? I have no data to back up my feelings, but it has a familiar feeling to recent years where we get out to a nice lead and become overly conservative (try to not lose) vs. continuing to try and score points. Or it could be the defense is making adjustments and the offensive game plan isn't adjusting to the adjustments!
While I recognize Pete is an amazing leader and motivator, and agree with their approach to the offseason. I am growing increasingly concerned about his ability to adapt to how the game has changed, and how this could impact the Seahawks ability to quickly return to their winning ways.
I felt a lot of fans were way too optimistic in the off season and was extremely pessimistic heading into week one. That freak win forced me to admit the error of my ways. But the error was simply forgetting that, in the NFL, on any particular day, almost anything can happen.
I agree that Geno has exceeded expectations and not by a little. Guess what? He's still Geno. I'm not pessimistic about this franchise or even this season. I simply accept that we'll lose a lot and, frankly, have no problem with it. I'm well aware that tanking guarantees nothing in the draft. But it maximizes our chances of getting some really good players. So if there's a year to tank, this would seem to be it.
I guess the next game against the Lions on the road will be telling. Perhaps we'll see Seattle perform beyond expectations and win. If not, I think a three win season sounds about right. If so, we could be up to five or maybe six (if rainbows and unicorns are for reals).
My initial prediction was 3 to 6 wins, which I downgraded to 2 to 5 when I realized we really were starting Geno. Since then, Geno has shown he's got at least a bit of what it takes to QB in the NFL. But 2 to 5 still feels about right. Have to assume we can pull out at least one more win somewhere. The Saints suck. The Giants aren't all that. Panthers? Jets? Those are the four that seem most likely and, as we know, anything can happen on any given day in the NFL. Since once upon a time, a long time ago in a land far, far away (in other words, as recently as last season), we had SF's number -- so perhaps in Seattle.
Thank you for the fully-formed reasoned opinion. I appreciate what Waldron has done with Geno, AND:
if the team continues to score nothing in the second half, that is a Waldron problem. He may be great at drawing up plays, schemes, and tactics, and work with the talent he has, but if he cannot adjust in-game, the team will drown. The NFL is just too good and the coaches too smart. This was one thing Bevell did well, and Schotty was pretty good at it too. Often it's just a tweak or two, and I truly hope it's something he develops over the course of the year.
Being correct in a preseason prognostication regarding Geno Smith wins me what?
Agree that PCJS handled the QB situation adeptly once it became clear that Russell Wilson wanted out. (Although I’m less impressed with the anonymous sneers from the FO that Russell’s skills are declining: To the extent that that is so, it began with the torn MCL playing behind a line anchored by Bradley F. Sowell and J’Marcus F. Webb—i.e., it’s not like the FO’s hands are clean.) What they should not have done is raise expectations by insisting that this team can compete with anyone. That’s what is driving much of the bad feeling that is out there.
I have to admit Geno's play so far has softened my stance on starting Lock instead. I still understand the decision to not see what we have in Lock but Geno's been playing well.
What crossed my mind is how many times in the past we've talked about how the Seahawks were such a slow-starting team that got themselves into a deep hole at halftime and that has reversed course dramatically this season. I have to wonder if the problem wasn't Russ the whole time. And who knows, if the 2nd half offense improves (and why couldn't it) and the defense gels (again, why not?) then this team might actually be fairly decent by the end of the season.
Here is an interesting idea. Two out of three games we have seen Geno do well in the first half only to have the other team make adjustments and shut the Hawk's offense down in the second half. I might think about bringing Drew Lock in for the second half of the next game to negate their adjustments. Change up the offense at halftime to fit Lock's skillset. Maybe we catch them off guard and put up some big offense. Then make it a thing so that no one knows which QB is playing in the second half of games. A bit radical but this team requires out of the box thinking.
I like how most of Seahawks Twitter preached patience, and this being a year to tank, but when we lose games, everyone goes bat sh*t crazy. I agree with you, I was under the impression we had a great season and it's shaping up that the moves made in the off-season we're good moves. Some moves of years past aren't looking so good to start but happy about the development!
Scoring involves more than the QB. The interception was on 4th down with Geno on the run. The Hawks are 21st in passing but 29th in rushing and 28th overall offense. It seems to me there is more correlation between the lack of rushing yards and inadequate scoring than with the passing game. 24 points should be a win. How would you feel today if we were 2-1 because the defense did its job?