Not me. I'll only be happy if he's the comeback player of the year, defensive player of the year, and leader of our Super Bowl champion defense (maybe Super Bowl MVP). I demand our entire return on investment condensed into one glorious season. I DEMAND IT!!!
“Liked” both of your replies. I’m unable to argue with either of you. Nothing barring Grant’s assertion would make him worth the trade in hindsight. But as Parallax notes, a full season being “good” would mean so much.
Despite having written what I wrote, I can't say I disagree with Grant either. I'm with you, Chuck. Trade absolution versus season satisfaction. How I feel might even change from moment to moment. Times when I can accept sunk costs and move on, and then times when I prefer to pitch a fit and wallow in frustration. At my better moments I choose the former for obvious reasons. But catch me when I'm tired, hungry, cranky or hangry and all bets are off.
Firstly I would like to say, once again a well thought out article. Joe didn't say this but some writer did. Quincy Williams is undersized at 255lbs and 5ft 11. I played rugby for 23 years I can 100% garuntee you his shape would be incredibly difficult to block. His pad level is lower to start with (low man wins) . If he was 3 inches taller would he knock down more passes in coverage, maybe a couple over 17 games.
One thing I am certain of when it comes to Pete and John, they will not draft a player just because he fits others ideas at our draft number ie Bruce Irving who most would agree has had a GOOD NFL career. P/J will take who they think is the best player period. It wouldn't surprise me if they traded down with, our/Denver pick if they don't see the value.
Once again talk of losing games for an unproven quantity is crazy. If Seattle can hold their opponents to the low to mid 20s we have a good chance of winning. I will state the obvious winning begets winning. There weren't many of us that thought the playoffs were a real possibility, but here we are with 6 games left and the Hawks hold their future in their hands.
Quickly other than runningback a nickel corner seems to be the red headed step child of DBs. I remember Diggs talking about this as that's where he started in Detroit. I can't imagine how difficult it is to stay with a Hunter Renfrew, or Devante Adams when they have the whole field to use, as well as being able to hide in traffic. Coby is not terribly effective yet, maybe he grows with another season under his belt. He seems to have cut down on giving up long plays. Also I didn't realize it was him who pulled the ball out when the referee said forward progress had stopped. The ref technically was right, but the play hadn't stopped and most officials would have called it that way.
An outside the topic thought please keep getting the ball to Goodwin. He has good hands and a reasonable amount of courage, plus he could take it to the house at any time.
Dec 1, 2022·edited Dec 1, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
I like this perspective you're sharing. It is obvious the defense needs help on all three levels. While the jury is still out on Brown I am optimistic he has made a full recovery. Time will tell if he is a legit starter in the NFL. If he can be as good as Reed I would be happy as they share the same physical traits.
I would really like to see us get a disruptive force on the interior of the d-line. Carter is a great option but I am also seeing a good prospect out of Pitt (Kancey) that crashes the pocket from the inside. He is not projected to be a first rounder but was just named ACC defensive player of the year. As long as we don't get another pick like Collier for the d-line I won't complain. If we reach on another 1st round pick then I think it is time to reconsider Pete and John's jobs. The first round has been horrible for a decade now. Cross has more potential than any first round pick in years. The likes of reaches like Ifedi and Collier hopefully has ended.
Barton I think needs to go. I think we can get a great linebacker in round 2 that has way more upside
A lot of people are going to talk about Kalijah Cancey because of Rob Staton bringing him u pso often. But whether it's Carter, Anderson, or Cancey, it's definitely not going to come down to a hyper focus on getting one guy. Even I have to caution people against over-promoting Grayson McCall, although that is entirely my own fault!
There's gonna be dozens of edge rushing prospects in the draft, Seattle will probably end up with one or two who we spent practically no time talking about, and they might end up being better than Cancey or Anderson. Not to disregard your point at all! I just wanted to take this first opportunity to say, "I see you, Rob" with a Kalijah Cancey reference. Rob's going to have a meteoric influence on which players Seahawks fans become obsessed with, as we've been dealign with for a year and Will Levis.
(Again, I am as guilty as Rob here because of Grayson)
I should point out that I started watching Kentucky games this year after hearing Rob go on about Levis. I see the size, arm, and some traits, but I seem to have been his bad luck charm. Each game I've watched has been a disappointing performance. But that O line is sorry and his ball catchers aren't anything to write home about, so I'm not sure Mahomes could put up monster numbers on that offense.
And that's the thing. There's just rarely a sure thing in a draft of collegiate players. SO many Aaron Curry types go through the NFL every draft. And they get every opportunity in the world because of their draft status. But no matter how dominant they might be at a major college program, there's no guarantee they will ever make an impact at the next level. While some undrafted free agent will.
Levis looks to me like the kind of QB who could perhaps be great with a bit of time to develop. All the tools but who knows. We've seen plenty of guys like that amount to nothing too.
I have the same concerns as Joe: Why doesn’t Levis play better? I get it that his OL is bad, but on the other hand the competition amounts to the equivalent of AA/AA.5 baseball. If Levis is all that—say—Staton says he is, he should dominate at least some games no matter what.
I share that concern, which is why I see him as a day three pick. If someone wants to take him before round 4, if I were GM I'd not sweat it. Once you get down to the 4th round, I'd start thinking about it. High risk, potential high reward. We've taken so many guys like that late in the draft. Sometimes we hit big.
I would like to mention there is a huge chasim between picking in the top 10 to pick number 28. Sure we all want our picks to turn out great, sometimes you swing and miss
True. And far more often at 28 than at 10. Still, there are no guarantees. Case in point: Stingley followed by Sauce. With perfect hindsight, no way that happens. Sauce is probably pick #1 in a redraft and Cross goes higher than 9th.
I haven't been on Rob's site in awhile and was not aware he was praising Kancey. With the likes of Murphy, Davis and Reese at Clemson, Louisville’s Yasir Abdullah, to just name a few in the ACC Kancey winning defensive player of the year is saying something. And yes I agree a hyper focus on just one prospect is a trap set with unreal expectations more times than not. I find Rob's content to be informative after the season is over. There are still games to play.
Collier was the 29th pick but projected as a mid 2nd rounder. If he had been our second round pick he wouldn't be drawing near as much scrutiny. Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%. The 2nd round defensive line success rate is only 26%.
I learned a lot reading this, and I feel like one of Rob Staton's fanboys who start every post with "I agree with everything you said, and you are the best, Rob. Thanks for all the hard work you do for us..." Of course, the reason they start every post that way is because Rob is an internet site authoritarian who rules his realm with an iron fist.
I don't fear disagreeing with you, Kenneth. For that, I AM grateful.
I read your writing for multiple reasons. One, you are democratic. Two, you are a talented writer who is creative and have a unique and recognizable style of writing. And three, you are as well self educated in the sport of football as anyone your age and share your insights with us using reasons one and two. You are unique in coverage of the Hawks because of all that.
As for who we should draft, I pretend that I know enough to have an opinion, but I am fully aware that it is only pretend. Lately, I have been thinking of that DT from Michigan. He will likely be available somewhere in the 5-10 range. Personality is half the evaluation. Intelligence and willpower separates the good from the great. I wouldn't mind Jalen Carter AND the guy from Michigan. I looked his name up and found out about a felony weapons charge. Hmmmmm, not in itself disqualifying. This is why interviews are so important. I trust John and Pete to do their homework. I look to you and others for insights I would miss. It's fun. It makes the games more fun to watch.
You're doing good work, Kenneth. You keep writing and I'll keep reading. Deal?
When you say guy from Michigan, I'm assuming Mazi? I haven't seen him mocked in the 1st, but haven't exactly been looking at mock drafts closely this early in the season. Weapons charges can vary a ton in how much I'd dock a player. Pulling a machine gun on someone vs getting pulled over driving with a personal firearm through a state where licensing is required (or in the case of California, that gun is not on their "roster") are both felonies, for example. I try to keep in mind that these are young men, and don't always grow up in the best circumstances. In 2009, Marshawn had a felony weapons charge for carrying a concealed firearm in CA on the heels of a pedestrian hit and run, and managed to have a mostly clean career afterwards. And plenty of players have had colleges cover up their misdeeds so that nobody ever knew about it. That said, as much as I'm in favor of 2nd chances, I'd prefer to avoid another Jarran Reed or Malik McDowell early in the draft, at least.
It still baffles me that Reed left Seattle for less money, I wish I knew the inside skinny as to why. He was that interior pressure we are looking for and collected a lot of his sacks late in a play, the clean up in Isle 5 guy.
That seems to be. He made a comment after signing with KC that he wanted to play somewhere "he was wanted." Something must have rubbed him wrong.
I went to a Seahawks/Panthers game in Charlotte back when he was on our team and saw an older guy (like myself) wearing his jersey. I made some small talk and asked how he became a Jarran Reed fan. He looked at me smirking and said, "I'm his daddy."
Mazi shows up as a 2nd round pick. The top tackle names are Carter, Breese, Dexter, Davis, Roy, and Dorlus. Mazi Smith is a nose tackle and he's rated the 2nd best behind Siaki Ika of Baylor. BTW, he is facing a felony weapons charge of having a concealed handgun in his car without a permit. He also didn't have his driver's license.
I find Rob Stanton informative, but don't always agree with him. I live in BC and the King of TV radio talk shows was a Scottish guy by the name of Jack Webster "9am precisely " When his show got stale or the phone lines weren't jammed he would say something opionated to light up those phone lines. I got to know him and he was very smart and calculated, which is what made me watch him at 15 years old
I found this post to be frustrating. How many top-10 picks do we have on our defense this year? The Jets have three. Jermaine Johnson was often talked about as top ten pick, and Sheldon Rankin was a #12 pick pick. CJ Mosley is a 4 time pro bowler. You make them sound like we're on an equal basis in defensive personel. We are not.
Regarding Joe's personel comments, let's start with Mike Jackson. You said he has a tackling problem but I show him missing seven tackles over ten games. DJ Reed has missed six during the same time period. Reed has a better coverage score but a slightly lower run stopping score. Jackson barely played the last three years but when he did his coverage score was very good. DJ Reed signed a $33 million contract, he darn well should be better.
I agree that Coby Bryant isn't currently a premier nickel back. Will he become that guy? IDK but Pete seems to think so. I'd like to see some rotations with Tre Brown at nickel.
Barton would be an excellent back up but a coverage linebacker such as Justin Flowe would be a significant upgrade.
Quinnen Williams versus Richard Sherman. Is it possible to draft an all-pro with the 154th pick, of course, but isn't the entire point of drafting higher to mitigate the odds of failure and opt for the highest ceiling possible?
We've had one sack and two QB hits total over the last two games. Yes, I'm convinced we need an interior disruptor and another edge rusher. They don't have to be top ten picks but it might help if they are.
I know one reason PC/JS would often trade down is that they felt that after a point in each draft, the talent differential became much closer and adding picks creates value (seems especially true when picking later in the 1st). I wonder though, how many top 5 players become long-term starters vs 5-10, 10-15, 15-32, etc.? I'm sure someone somewhere has compiled this, but I couldn't google any actual stats. It's probably skewed to some degree because high picks keep getting more opportunities. But talent evaluation is tough.
I'm mainly an NFL fan and Seahawks fan, but I do watch college ball each Saturday. And every year I have "draft crushes" and once in a while we draft one of them, like KW3 last year. Or, sadly, Amara Darboh a few years back. And sometimes, like Deebo Samuel, the (next to) worst team that could draft them does and the player turns out to be great. But I'd wager the list of draft crushes I personally had throughout the decades washed out of the league without a 3rd contract, if not 2nd. But this should be expected for a fan. We're not breaking down all-22 film and paying close attention to their release off the line, split second decisions, or any of that. We watch "Bijan run good" and want him on our team. I would like to think those who have built successful enough podcasts/sites/etc. were putting the work in when they make their declarations. But most seem to at least have some "Bijan run good, and we need him on our team" mindsets clouding their judgments. And I can accept some of that. We all do it. What I can't accept is those who make shit up. I kind of trusted a certain SI reporter who was "locked on" the idea that we were getting Baker Mayfield any day now, and he (not just Josina) claimed to have a source. I never listened to another of his podcasts after he signed with the Panthers.
"redirect water around the leaks." Genius analogy: don't always need to plug the holes, sometimes just grab the best player possible. Don't need a road-grading center if you have 2 stud guards. Don't need elite cb's if you have a fearsome pass rush.
I did mention some draft needs in the post regarding the upcoming Rams game and I was curious what vet ILB might be worth a get next year. Some of the names I ran across was Van Noy, Bush, David, Perryman, Alexander, Bostic, Turner. Seattle has had more luck in the past drafting LB's and CB than say, D-Line. Exception would include Mebane, Bryant (excelled when moved to Big DE) and of course Tez, Bryant, Green, Nash (another era). Seattle adds corners every year through trades, draft or UDFA it seems. Reed was a waiver wire guy I believe. Coleman was a 7th round trade from NE intially Bobby W was a much critizied 2nd round pick by Seattle in 2012 as was KJ 2nd pick in round 4 in 2011. Two good inside LB's are a required part of the 3 4 scheme. Just as the outside positions are. Seattle needs some stout athletic players up front in early downs with the ability to slide laterally and collapse the pocket and running lanes allowing the ILB, and SS to plug the gaps or shoot them. Kam Chancellor 5th round. Sherman 5th round. Max unger the only center drafted of mention before Tobeck. 2009 2nd round, drafted by Mora. Safety is a need. Adams is injured every year it seems. (his stats decresae every year even when playing) Diggs is just not who he was last year before the injury. I like Blount and Neal. Seattle needs to add another talent. Adams and Diggs are a fixture for at least 3 years due to contracts (see over the cap). Pass rushers during the PC/JS have not always been the strongest suit. Bennett was a cut UDFA of Seattle's that caught on with Tampa and was brought back, along with signing Avril and McDaniel in 2013. Clemmons was a trade from Philly along with a 4th round pick for D Tapp. He was origionally an undrafted FA for WASH in 2003.
Clark was better but never really lived up to who many though he would be according to his stats with KC.
Many writers will follow the college players and suggest the draft components that "predicts" their possible realized talent. NFL scouts do the same but with more direct viewing of a players career and the inside of the teams they represent. How any player will fit into an existing teams chemistry / coaching is also an important factor in the "potential" for success. Guarantees are never a given in any personal decision. Injury is also a deciding factor. Curry (now assist DL/DE coach) looked like he had all the right elements.
I would like to see what Matt Berry ( Head of college scouting) and his staff come up with in 2023. Looks like they had a hot hand in 2022.
Seattle will probably keep Harris, but the rest are up in the air. Seattle has been able not to invest in draft capital up front but maybe that should change in 2023. Should they draft a QB. It appears they may be able to find a potential for the future even in the second round.
Who is sitting on a practice squad that may be a contributor. There are so many moving parts I sure don't have the answers. I don't usually name names because I am not as well informed as the people who actually get paid to do it full time.
Team building always seems to ebb and flow with franchises. They get hot for awhile and then they're not. It's not always the draft or the right FA and the unforseen late rounder or UDFA. It seems that the hot hand and a little luck is the best bet and not everyone has that every year. It also has to do with a good scouting staff which Seattle may have again. 2023 will be a good indicator.
Saleh has done a great job in NY, but if you don't win in the Big Apple consistantly you really are the NFL...not for long. Ask Pete. As I mentioned before I thought Safety, D Line, RB, Center should be high on the draft calander. Key vets need to be added to youth, especially at LB and possibly D-Line Seattle will find another corner...they just seem to do that more often than not. Cody Bryant by the way never played slot in college. He was handed a tall task in this era of the NFL. Will Seattle find someone to replace him. They might, but as I recall Sherman took a few years to get it right. Considering some of the other corner play I have seen the NFL this year, Seattle could be much worse off. It will be interesting to see how 2023 plays out for the Seahawks. That's been my view of their future all along. This year was a surprise for me, and a great team building expereince for next season.
We'll see the Jets soon enough in Seattle. That might be the best comparison..real time.
Great article Ken. I don't read a lot of the draft blog. Every once in awhile. I'm better at listening to ex players disecting the play of the team and where they need help or coaching. I have always found Sam's Film room a good critique of scheme and player evaluation.
I enjoy your blog those that participate. it's a refreshing perspective of creative writing.
It’s now known that you invest in your strengths and mitigate your weaknesses. I think that also works for football.
I’d be thrilled if the Seahawks chose Kelee Ringo or Bijan Robinson with their first pick, even though lots of people would scoff. The reason is: can you imagine running pro sets with Bijan and Walker? Wouldn’t a team love to have peak McCaffrey and peak Le’Veon Bell in their rosters? Key on the run? Both make you pay through the air. If you key on the better “all-around” back, the “home run threat” will hit his home run. Or two lockdown corners, what would that do to the defense? Suddenly, you can have lots and lots of safety blitzes confident that the corners will pick up the slack in case they do not get a sack.
You’re definitely correct: it’s not an exercise in plugging holes, it’s getting who will make your team a champion. For years the Cowboys have been a team with very few holes. For years they don’t make a deep playoff run. While the Chiefs have made the Super Bowl twice with a mediocre at best defense. Because they have the best QB in the league, great playmakers, and a solid line. They traded Hill and are still a top offense.
While there are plenty of good players on the Seattle D, there aren’t enough outstanding ones. Setting aside Woolen and Nwosu and recognizing that the jury will remain out on Bryant until next year, they could upgrade at every other position. Younger blood at safety is an obvious place to consider, as is Barton’s LB position. Ideally, PCJS accept that Darrell Taylor is a bust and add a legitimate force to to the pass rush.
The problem is, who might that be? Marcus Davenport is the only FA of note and he’s always hurt. Even a top rookie can’t be counted on to have immediate impact. Plus, depending on their board, they shouldn’t rule out using their first pick as a QB. Luckily for me, I’m not the GM who has to figure this out.
I really appreciate your perspective and agree. Though there's a lot I don't know about football, I have seen countless so-called "can't miss" prospects either miss entirely or not play to expectations or take years to develop or excel but not necessarily better than some guy (or several) taken later on.
You said it well about a month ago. The higher your draft pick, the better your chance of getting an elite player. Still, it's a chance. A craps shoot. One has to get very lucky to find a Micah Parsons or a Nick Bosa. One is lucky if a guy merely plays up to expectations, let alone surpasses them. I can't think of anyone in the 2022 1st round who has really blown the door off compared to expectations. Cross is playing as well as can be expected. Maybe Sauce has exceeded but not the way Parsons did the year before and, as you've said, we got far better value in Woolen.
I kept meaning to write something about Jamal Adams, and ultimately I forgot to. HMMM!
2023 comeback player of the year!!!
I'd be happy if he simply avoids injury and can be used in creative ways that utilize his skill set.
Not me. I'll only be happy if he's the comeback player of the year, defensive player of the year, and leader of our Super Bowl champion defense (maybe Super Bowl MVP). I demand our entire return on investment condensed into one glorious season. I DEMAND IT!!!
“Liked” both of your replies. I’m unable to argue with either of you. Nothing barring Grant’s assertion would make him worth the trade in hindsight. But as Parallax notes, a full season being “good” would mean so much.
Despite having written what I wrote, I can't say I disagree with Grant either. I'm with you, Chuck. Trade absolution versus season satisfaction. How I feel might even change from moment to moment. Times when I can accept sunk costs and move on, and then times when I prefer to pitch a fit and wallow in frustration. At my better moments I choose the former for obvious reasons. But catch me when I'm tired, hungry, cranky or hangry and all bets are off.
Firstly I would like to say, once again a well thought out article. Joe didn't say this but some writer did. Quincy Williams is undersized at 255lbs and 5ft 11. I played rugby for 23 years I can 100% garuntee you his shape would be incredibly difficult to block. His pad level is lower to start with (low man wins) . If he was 3 inches taller would he knock down more passes in coverage, maybe a couple over 17 games.
One thing I am certain of when it comes to Pete and John, they will not draft a player just because he fits others ideas at our draft number ie Bruce Irving who most would agree has had a GOOD NFL career. P/J will take who they think is the best player period. It wouldn't surprise me if they traded down with, our/Denver pick if they don't see the value.
Once again talk of losing games for an unproven quantity is crazy. If Seattle can hold their opponents to the low to mid 20s we have a good chance of winning. I will state the obvious winning begets winning. There weren't many of us that thought the playoffs were a real possibility, but here we are with 6 games left and the Hawks hold their future in their hands.
Quickly other than runningback a nickel corner seems to be the red headed step child of DBs. I remember Diggs talking about this as that's where he started in Detroit. I can't imagine how difficult it is to stay with a Hunter Renfrew, or Devante Adams when they have the whole field to use, as well as being able to hide in traffic. Coby is not terribly effective yet, maybe he grows with another season under his belt. He seems to have cut down on giving up long plays. Also I didn't realize it was him who pulled the ball out when the referee said forward progress had stopped. The ref technically was right, but the play hadn't stopped and most officials would have called it that way.
An outside the topic thought please keep getting the ball to Goodwin. He has good hands and a reasonable amount of courage, plus he could take it to the house at any time.
Yes, maybe Goodwin could be a secret weapon still kept in secret.
If he could leech some of Lockett's brilliance at getting open I'd agree.
I like this perspective you're sharing. It is obvious the defense needs help on all three levels. While the jury is still out on Brown I am optimistic he has made a full recovery. Time will tell if he is a legit starter in the NFL. If he can be as good as Reed I would be happy as they share the same physical traits.
I would really like to see us get a disruptive force on the interior of the d-line. Carter is a great option but I am also seeing a good prospect out of Pitt (Kancey) that crashes the pocket from the inside. He is not projected to be a first rounder but was just named ACC defensive player of the year. As long as we don't get another pick like Collier for the d-line I won't complain. If we reach on another 1st round pick then I think it is time to reconsider Pete and John's jobs. The first round has been horrible for a decade now. Cross has more potential than any first round pick in years. The likes of reaches like Ifedi and Collier hopefully has ended.
Barton I think needs to go. I think we can get a great linebacker in round 2 that has way more upside
A lot of people are going to talk about Kalijah Cancey because of Rob Staton bringing him u pso often. But whether it's Carter, Anderson, or Cancey, it's definitely not going to come down to a hyper focus on getting one guy. Even I have to caution people against over-promoting Grayson McCall, although that is entirely my own fault!
There's gonna be dozens of edge rushing prospects in the draft, Seattle will probably end up with one or two who we spent practically no time talking about, and they might end up being better than Cancey or Anderson. Not to disregard your point at all! I just wanted to take this first opportunity to say, "I see you, Rob" with a Kalijah Cancey reference. Rob's going to have a meteoric influence on which players Seahawks fans become obsessed with, as we've been dealign with for a year and Will Levis.
(Again, I am as guilty as Rob here because of Grayson)
But Grayson is actually fantastic!
^But, not buy...
I should point out that I started watching Kentucky games this year after hearing Rob go on about Levis. I see the size, arm, and some traits, but I seem to have been his bad luck charm. Each game I've watched has been a disappointing performance. But that O line is sorry and his ball catchers aren't anything to write home about, so I'm not sure Mahomes could put up monster numbers on that offense.
And that's the thing. There's just rarely a sure thing in a draft of collegiate players. SO many Aaron Curry types go through the NFL every draft. And they get every opportunity in the world because of their draft status. But no matter how dominant they might be at a major college program, there's no guarantee they will ever make an impact at the next level. While some undrafted free agent will.
Levis looks to me like the kind of QB who could perhaps be great with a bit of time to develop. All the tools but who knows. We've seen plenty of guys like that amount to nothing too.
I have the same concerns as Joe: Why doesn’t Levis play better? I get it that his OL is bad, but on the other hand the competition amounts to the equivalent of AA/AA.5 baseball. If Levis is all that—say—Staton says he is, he should dominate at least some games no matter what.
I share that concern, which is why I see him as a day three pick. If someone wants to take him before round 4, if I were GM I'd not sweat it. Once you get down to the 4th round, I'd start thinking about it. High risk, potential high reward. We've taken so many guys like that late in the draft. Sometimes we hit big.
I would like to mention there is a huge chasim between picking in the top 10 to pick number 28. Sure we all want our picks to turn out great, sometimes you swing and miss
True. And far more often at 28 than at 10. Still, there are no guarantees. Case in point: Stingley followed by Sauce. With perfect hindsight, no way that happens. Sauce is probably pick #1 in a redraft and Cross goes higher than 9th.
I haven't been on Rob's site in awhile and was not aware he was praising Kancey. With the likes of Murphy, Davis and Reese at Clemson, Louisville’s Yasir Abdullah, to just name a few in the ACC Kancey winning defensive player of the year is saying something. And yes I agree a hyper focus on just one prospect is a trap set with unreal expectations more times than not. I find Rob's content to be informative after the season is over. There are still games to play.
Rob got me fired up about Lucas since the Senior Bowl and he was 100% correct.
Rob got me fired up for Johnny Manziel, Leonard Fournette, and Paxton Lynch.
Collier was the 29th pick but projected as a mid 2nd rounder. If he had been our second round pick he wouldn't be drawing near as much scrutiny. Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%. The 2nd round defensive line success rate is only 26%.
I learned a lot reading this, and I feel like one of Rob Staton's fanboys who start every post with "I agree with everything you said, and you are the best, Rob. Thanks for all the hard work you do for us..." Of course, the reason they start every post that way is because Rob is an internet site authoritarian who rules his realm with an iron fist.
I don't fear disagreeing with you, Kenneth. For that, I AM grateful.
I read your writing for multiple reasons. One, you are democratic. Two, you are a talented writer who is creative and have a unique and recognizable style of writing. And three, you are as well self educated in the sport of football as anyone your age and share your insights with us using reasons one and two. You are unique in coverage of the Hawks because of all that.
As for who we should draft, I pretend that I know enough to have an opinion, but I am fully aware that it is only pretend. Lately, I have been thinking of that DT from Michigan. He will likely be available somewhere in the 5-10 range. Personality is half the evaluation. Intelligence and willpower separates the good from the great. I wouldn't mind Jalen Carter AND the guy from Michigan. I looked his name up and found out about a felony weapons charge. Hmmmmm, not in itself disqualifying. This is why interviews are so important. I trust John and Pete to do their homework. I look to you and others for insights I would miss. It's fun. It makes the games more fun to watch.
You're doing good work, Kenneth. You keep writing and I'll keep reading. Deal?
When you say guy from Michigan, I'm assuming Mazi? I haven't seen him mocked in the 1st, but haven't exactly been looking at mock drafts closely this early in the season. Weapons charges can vary a ton in how much I'd dock a player. Pulling a machine gun on someone vs getting pulled over driving with a personal firearm through a state where licensing is required (or in the case of California, that gun is not on their "roster") are both felonies, for example. I try to keep in mind that these are young men, and don't always grow up in the best circumstances. In 2009, Marshawn had a felony weapons charge for carrying a concealed firearm in CA on the heels of a pedestrian hit and run, and managed to have a mostly clean career afterwards. And plenty of players have had colleges cover up their misdeeds so that nobody ever knew about it. That said, as much as I'm in favor of 2nd chances, I'd prefer to avoid another Jarran Reed or Malik McDowell early in the draft, at least.
It still baffles me that Reed left Seattle for less money, I wish I knew the inside skinny as to why. He was that interior pressure we are looking for and collected a lot of his sacks late in a play, the clean up in Isle 5 guy.
Ego.
That seems to be. He made a comment after signing with KC that he wanted to play somewhere "he was wanted." Something must have rubbed him wrong.
I went to a Seahawks/Panthers game in Charlotte back when he was on our team and saw an older guy (like myself) wearing his jersey. I made some small talk and asked how he became a Jarran Reed fan. He looked at me smirking and said, "I'm his daddy."
Mazi shows up as a 2nd round pick. The top tackle names are Carter, Breese, Dexter, Davis, Roy, and Dorlus. Mazi Smith is a nose tackle and he's rated the 2nd best behind Siaki Ika of Baylor. BTW, he is facing a felony weapons charge of having a concealed handgun in his car without a permit. He also didn't have his driver's license.
I find Rob Stanton informative, but don't always agree with him. I live in BC and the King of TV radio talk shows was a Scottish guy by the name of Jack Webster "9am precisely " When his show got stale or the phone lines weren't jammed he would say something opionated to light up those phone lines. I got to know him and he was very smart and calculated, which is what made me watch him at 15 years old
He would be offended by the iron fist characterization, and show that by clobbering you with it!
I found this post to be frustrating. How many top-10 picks do we have on our defense this year? The Jets have three. Jermaine Johnson was often talked about as top ten pick, and Sheldon Rankin was a #12 pick pick. CJ Mosley is a 4 time pro bowler. You make them sound like we're on an equal basis in defensive personel. We are not.
Regarding Joe's personel comments, let's start with Mike Jackson. You said he has a tackling problem but I show him missing seven tackles over ten games. DJ Reed has missed six during the same time period. Reed has a better coverage score but a slightly lower run stopping score. Jackson barely played the last three years but when he did his coverage score was very good. DJ Reed signed a $33 million contract, he darn well should be better.
I agree that Coby Bryant isn't currently a premier nickel back. Will he become that guy? IDK but Pete seems to think so. I'd like to see some rotations with Tre Brown at nickel.
Barton would be an excellent back up but a coverage linebacker such as Justin Flowe would be a significant upgrade.
Quinnen Williams versus Richard Sherman. Is it possible to draft an all-pro with the 154th pick, of course, but isn't the entire point of drafting higher to mitigate the odds of failure and opt for the highest ceiling possible?
We've had one sack and two QB hits total over the last two games. Yes, I'm convinced we need an interior disruptor and another edge rusher. They don't have to be top ten picks but it might help if they are.
I know one reason PC/JS would often trade down is that they felt that after a point in each draft, the talent differential became much closer and adding picks creates value (seems especially true when picking later in the 1st). I wonder though, how many top 5 players become long-term starters vs 5-10, 10-15, 15-32, etc.? I'm sure someone somewhere has compiled this, but I couldn't google any actual stats. It's probably skewed to some degree because high picks keep getting more opportunities. But talent evaluation is tough.
I'm mainly an NFL fan and Seahawks fan, but I do watch college ball each Saturday. And every year I have "draft crushes" and once in a while we draft one of them, like KW3 last year. Or, sadly, Amara Darboh a few years back. And sometimes, like Deebo Samuel, the (next to) worst team that could draft them does and the player turns out to be great. But I'd wager the list of draft crushes I personally had throughout the decades washed out of the league without a 3rd contract, if not 2nd. But this should be expected for a fan. We're not breaking down all-22 film and paying close attention to their release off the line, split second decisions, or any of that. We watch "Bijan run good" and want him on our team. I would like to think those who have built successful enough podcasts/sites/etc. were putting the work in when they make their declarations. But most seem to at least have some "Bijan run good, and we need him on our team" mindsets clouding their judgments. And I can accept some of that. We all do it. What I can't accept is those who make shit up. I kind of trusted a certain SI reporter who was "locked on" the idea that we were getting Baker Mayfield any day now, and he (not just Josina) claimed to have a source. I never listened to another of his podcasts after he signed with the Panthers.
"redirect water around the leaks." Genius analogy: don't always need to plug the holes, sometimes just grab the best player possible. Don't need a road-grading center if you have 2 stud guards. Don't need elite cb's if you have a fearsome pass rush.
I did mention some draft needs in the post regarding the upcoming Rams game and I was curious what vet ILB might be worth a get next year. Some of the names I ran across was Van Noy, Bush, David, Perryman, Alexander, Bostic, Turner. Seattle has had more luck in the past drafting LB's and CB than say, D-Line. Exception would include Mebane, Bryant (excelled when moved to Big DE) and of course Tez, Bryant, Green, Nash (another era). Seattle adds corners every year through trades, draft or UDFA it seems. Reed was a waiver wire guy I believe. Coleman was a 7th round trade from NE intially Bobby W was a much critizied 2nd round pick by Seattle in 2012 as was KJ 2nd pick in round 4 in 2011. Two good inside LB's are a required part of the 3 4 scheme. Just as the outside positions are. Seattle needs some stout athletic players up front in early downs with the ability to slide laterally and collapse the pocket and running lanes allowing the ILB, and SS to plug the gaps or shoot them. Kam Chancellor 5th round. Sherman 5th round. Max unger the only center drafted of mention before Tobeck. 2009 2nd round, drafted by Mora. Safety is a need. Adams is injured every year it seems. (his stats decresae every year even when playing) Diggs is just not who he was last year before the injury. I like Blount and Neal. Seattle needs to add another talent. Adams and Diggs are a fixture for at least 3 years due to contracts (see over the cap). Pass rushers during the PC/JS have not always been the strongest suit. Bennett was a cut UDFA of Seattle's that caught on with Tampa and was brought back, along with signing Avril and McDaniel in 2013. Clemmons was a trade from Philly along with a 4th round pick for D Tapp. He was origionally an undrafted FA for WASH in 2003.
Clark was better but never really lived up to who many though he would be according to his stats with KC.
Many writers will follow the college players and suggest the draft components that "predicts" their possible realized talent. NFL scouts do the same but with more direct viewing of a players career and the inside of the teams they represent. How any player will fit into an existing teams chemistry / coaching is also an important factor in the "potential" for success. Guarantees are never a given in any personal decision. Injury is also a deciding factor. Curry (now assist DL/DE coach) looked like he had all the right elements.
I would like to see what Matt Berry ( Head of college scouting) and his staff come up with in 2023. Looks like they had a hot hand in 2022.
Seattle will probably keep Harris, but the rest are up in the air. Seattle has been able not to invest in draft capital up front but maybe that should change in 2023. Should they draft a QB. It appears they may be able to find a potential for the future even in the second round.
Who is sitting on a practice squad that may be a contributor. There are so many moving parts I sure don't have the answers. I don't usually name names because I am not as well informed as the people who actually get paid to do it full time.
Team building always seems to ebb and flow with franchises. They get hot for awhile and then they're not. It's not always the draft or the right FA and the unforseen late rounder or UDFA. It seems that the hot hand and a little luck is the best bet and not everyone has that every year. It also has to do with a good scouting staff which Seattle may have again. 2023 will be a good indicator.
Saleh has done a great job in NY, but if you don't win in the Big Apple consistantly you really are the NFL...not for long. Ask Pete. As I mentioned before I thought Safety, D Line, RB, Center should be high on the draft calander. Key vets need to be added to youth, especially at LB and possibly D-Line Seattle will find another corner...they just seem to do that more often than not. Cody Bryant by the way never played slot in college. He was handed a tall task in this era of the NFL. Will Seattle find someone to replace him. They might, but as I recall Sherman took a few years to get it right. Considering some of the other corner play I have seen the NFL this year, Seattle could be much worse off. It will be interesting to see how 2023 plays out for the Seahawks. That's been my view of their future all along. This year was a surprise for me, and a great team building expereince for next season.
We'll see the Jets soon enough in Seattle. That might be the best comparison..real time.
Great article Ken. I don't read a lot of the draft blog. Every once in awhile. I'm better at listening to ex players disecting the play of the team and where they need help or coaching. I have always found Sam's Film room a good critique of scheme and player evaluation.
I enjoy your blog those that participate. it's a refreshing perspective of creative writing.
Go Hawks!
It’s now known that you invest in your strengths and mitigate your weaknesses. I think that also works for football.
I’d be thrilled if the Seahawks chose Kelee Ringo or Bijan Robinson with their first pick, even though lots of people would scoff. The reason is: can you imagine running pro sets with Bijan and Walker? Wouldn’t a team love to have peak McCaffrey and peak Le’Veon Bell in their rosters? Key on the run? Both make you pay through the air. If you key on the better “all-around” back, the “home run threat” will hit his home run. Or two lockdown corners, what would that do to the defense? Suddenly, you can have lots and lots of safety blitzes confident that the corners will pick up the slack in case they do not get a sack.
You’re definitely correct: it’s not an exercise in plugging holes, it’s getting who will make your team a champion. For years the Cowboys have been a team with very few holes. For years they don’t make a deep playoff run. While the Chiefs have made the Super Bowl twice with a mediocre at best defense. Because they have the best QB in the league, great playmakers, and a solid line. They traded Hill and are still a top offense.
While there are plenty of good players on the Seattle D, there aren’t enough outstanding ones. Setting aside Woolen and Nwosu and recognizing that the jury will remain out on Bryant until next year, they could upgrade at every other position. Younger blood at safety is an obvious place to consider, as is Barton’s LB position. Ideally, PCJS accept that Darrell Taylor is a bust and add a legitimate force to to the pass rush.
The problem is, who might that be? Marcus Davenport is the only FA of note and he’s always hurt. Even a top rookie can’t be counted on to have immediate impact. Plus, depending on their board, they shouldn’t rule out using their first pick as a QB. Luckily for me, I’m not the GM who has to figure this out.
I really appreciate your perspective and agree. Though there's a lot I don't know about football, I have seen countless so-called "can't miss" prospects either miss entirely or not play to expectations or take years to develop or excel but not necessarily better than some guy (or several) taken later on.
You said it well about a month ago. The higher your draft pick, the better your chance of getting an elite player. Still, it's a chance. A craps shoot. One has to get very lucky to find a Micah Parsons or a Nick Bosa. One is lucky if a guy merely plays up to expectations, let alone surpasses them. I can't think of anyone in the 2022 1st round who has really blown the door off compared to expectations. Cross is playing as well as can be expected. Maybe Sauce has exceeded but not the way Parsons did the year before and, as you've said, we got far better value in Woolen.
And Woolen is actually the better player. Fixed it for you