Biggest threat to Seahawks is a last place team in the NFC

It's not too soon to look ahead to Seattle's toughest competition for the next Super Bowl

If the Patriots taught us anything by reaching the Super Bowl, it’s the age old piece of NFL wisdom that your strength of schedule really matters.

New England finished in last place in the AFC East last year, edging out the Jets by one loss, which in theory should have led to a 3-0 advantage except that the Patriots lost to the last place Raiders in Week 1.

Still, by luck or by the script, the Patriots had the easiest schedule in the league and when combined with quality coaching, an above-average quarterback, and a good defense, they were able to take advantage to win 14 games.

The next version of that recipe is not going to be a team in the AFC, they’re not as bad as the Patriots were the season before, they’re far more talented on offense, and most pertinently to the Seahawks they could be Seattle’s biggest threat to earning the number one seed next season. They are:

The Detroit Lions

Seattle’s biggest competition next season could be the team that most of us thought would be the NFC favorites last season. Except this time the Lions have a last place schedule from the NFC North (despite going 9-8) and an offseason for one of the NFL’s best general managers and head coaches to address the personnel weaknesses that held them back from making the playoffs this year.

Whereas the 49ers are facing potential catastrophe due to injuries, cap space, and substations; the Eagles are already talking about dismantling a recent Super Bowl roster; the Rams have a 38-year-old quarterback; and the Bears have a 38th-ranked defense, the Lions would be the team I bookmark today as the number one threat to the Seahawks repeating as Super Bowl champions.

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Last place schedule

By finishing in last place, the Lions land these three teams different than the rest of the division:

• Arizona Cardinals

• New York Giants

• Tennessee Titans

By comparison, the first place Bears draw:

• Seattle Seahawks

• Philadelphia Eagles

• Jacksonville Jaguars

The Packers get the Rams, Texans, and Cowboys.

The Vikings get the 49ers, Colts, and Moons.

Right off the bat, I’m seeing a huge three-game schedule advantage for the Lions over their three division counterparts. That fact alone could EASILY play a role in who wins the NFC North in 2026.

In addition, the Lions schedule draws them against the NFC South (which had no winning teams) and the AFC East (which had two of the worst teams in the NFL), and within their own division it’s fair to question if the Vikings are able to climb out of the hole they built for themselves at quarterback.

Detroit went 15-2 in 2024. They went 9-8 in 2025. The truth could be somewhere in the middle but the Lions may lean closer towards 15 wins than 9 wins in 2026.

Jared Goff restructure

The Lions are projected to be over the 2026 salary cap but simply restructuring the contract of Jared Goff saves the team $40 million. That does not mean Goff loses money (in fact he gets the money upfront) and Detroit doesn’t need to ask for his permission. It is easy to assume this will happen.

Elsewhere, left tackle Taylor Decker is contemplating retirement and center Graham Glasgow is a probable cut candidate, which would open up an additional $17 million in space with those two moves. Both of which are weaknesses.

Now the Lions would have about $50 million in cap space for Brad Holmes, one of the top-6ish general managers in the NFL.

The biggest offensive threat to Seattle

Despite missing the playoffs and exposing some of their weaknesses on the offensive line and Campbell’s game management skills, the Lions still scored 481 points, third-most in the NFC.

Goff is limited, especially as a downfield passer, but certainly capable enough to have won 15 games in a season before, earned a number one seed with two different teams, and reached the Super Bowl with the Rams in 2018.

If the Lions can improve the interior of their offensive line, as Seattle did by drafting Grey Zabel, this could end up being the best supporting cast the Goff has ever had.

-Penei Sewell could be the best offensive lineman in the NFL; rookie guard Tate Ratledge already established himself as a good pick.

Sewell’s 95.2 overall grade from PFF led all offensive linemen this season. His run-blocking grade (96.8) is the highest by any right tackle over the past five years and led all offensive linemen this season by a substantial margin. Sewell allowed pressure on just 3.3 percent of pass plays, a career best that ranked second among right tackles and fifth among all offensive tackles.

Ratledge's 73.5 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade ranked 12th among all NFL guards and ranked second among rookie guards. Over his last 12 games, Ratledge didn't allow a sack and gave up only four quarterback hits.

-Amon-Ra St. Brown is up there with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in terms of value to his team.

-Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs are two of the top athletes in the league.

-Sam LaPorta was on pace for career-highs prior to an injury that cost him half of the season. And keep an eye on Isaac TeSlaa to be one of the breakout stars of 2026.

The big question coming into 2025 was how smooth the transition would be from Ben Johnson to a new OC and the answer was “not smoothly” so the team hired Drew Petzing last month. Petzing has been the OC of the Cardinals for the last three seasons, an offense that quietly had the number two yards-per-carry offense in 2023 and 2024.

The run game, plus the rise of Trey McBride as the league’s top tight end (good news for LaPorta), surely played a big part in his assignment with Detroit. Goff, unsurprisingly, says he’s all-in:

“He’s done it before. He’s been a coordinator. He’s called plays,” Goff said. “And I think he was a home run hire. And I’m really excited for him.”

Added Goff: “The way he’s able to move things around and be versatile and the run game, the pass game, marrying it all together, I think that’s another big component I didn’t hit. Like that cohesion for us of like play action and all that stuff that we’re so good at.”

The 2025 Rams proved that it is possible for an offense to overwhelm Mike Macdonald’s defense. The 2026 Lions have the potential to do the same.

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Defense isn’t that far off

The Lions had the third-best point differential in the NFC behind the Seahawks and Rams.

Detroit finished 19th in points per drive allowed and had the ninth-best third down defense. Of course they’re nowhere near Seattle’s level, but they already have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate (Aiden Hutchinson, who had 14.5 sacks), an All-Pro linebacker (Jack Campbell), one of the league’s top safeties (Brian Branch), another guy who had 11 sacks (Al-Quadin Muhammad), and a top-tier nose tackle (Alim McNeill).

The Lions were major underachievers on defense and you could make the argument that they could have more All-Pros than the Seahawks next year.

I don’t know what the Lions are going to do in free agency or the draft and I’m not going to speculate those moves, but just imagine what one more great addition (or the breakout of one of the last two first round picks: CB Terrion Arnold and DT Tyleik Williams) would do for Detroit’s defense.

And for you Special Teams believers out there: Punter Jack Fox and kicker Jake Bates are All-Pro caliber.

One of the only Lions free agents worth bringing back is returner Kalif Raymond, who had a punt return touchdown last season.

The biggest threat is not calling from inside the house

The 49ers beat the Seahawks in Week 1 and won 12 games, the Rams were the only team standing in between Seattle and a Super Bowl championship, but I bet their biggest competition in 2026 will not be coming from the NFC West.

In my opinion, the Bears are due a great fall and Caleb Williams is going down with them. The Vikings have to figure out what to do with J.J. McCarthy. The Packers keep re-investing into the same coach and players who have only won one playoff game since trading Aaron Rodgers.

But most importantly, all those NFC North teams have a harder schedule than the Lions, which in this rare case is also the most talented (and best-coached) team in the division.

That’s the formula that can lead a team to 14 or 15 wins, which means competition for the one seed that comes with a bye week and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. All the Seahawks can do is win all of their games and hope it doesn’t matter — they won’t face the Lions before the playoffs — but in the NFL your relative success is just as important as how you do head-to-head against the teams on your schedule.

Based on what I’m seeing right now, the Lions aren’t on the Seahawks schedule in the regular season but these two teams seem bound to face off eventually.

Seaside Joe 2535