Seahawks 'middle out' defense is coming out of both ends

Mike Macdonald's defense has been one-of-one after the first quarter

Seaside Joe has been lightly ridiculed for citing “the middle 8 minutes of football” being the most important, to which I say that’s perfectly okay and encouraged around here. The 4 P’s of Seaside Joe are: Poke, Prod, Pushback, and Politely disagree with me. That’s what we want.

So what if instead of the middle-8, we focus on the middle-30? The Seahawks have had the most dominant middle-defense in the NFL through two weeks.

2nd Quarter: 2.85 yards per play allowed (1st)

The Seahawks are allowing 2.85 yards per play in the second quarter, by far the lowest number in the NFL:

Week 1, 2nd quarter vs. 49ers:

• Seattle clamped down for a 3-and-out (0-of-3 passing by Brock Purdy) on the first drive, then Julian Love sacked Purdy for a loss of 12 to setup a quick punt on the second drive, then got a bit lucky when Jake Moody shanked a field goal attempt on the final drive

Week 2, 2nd quarter vs. Steelers:

• Steelers go -2 yards and punt, Steelers go 1 yard and punt, then the Herbig interception sets Pittsburgh up for a short 21-yard touchdown drive, the only points Seattle has allowed in the second quarter so far

Through two second quarters (a small sample size), the Seahawks defense has faced six drives:

• 8-of-15 passing for 69 yards, 3 sacks, total net passing yards: 46

• 3 net yards per pass attempt

• 15 rushing attempts for 48 yards, 3.2 YPC

• 6th-lowest YPC allowed in 2nd quarter

It’s only two quarters and it’s only two opponents, but what if Mike Macdonald is just really good at reading what other teams are trying to do based on their scripted plays and then using it against them?

The Seahawks could finish off the Saints before the fourth quarter if they dominate them ahead of time with a “middle-out” scoring defense:

Third Quarter: 2 interceptions (1st)/48.9 passer rating (3rd)

Seattle’s yards per play average in the third quarter is not as dominant as the second quarter (6.03 Y/P, which ranks 27th) but it just has not mattered because the Seahawks have intercepted two passes and only allowed three passing first downs in the third quarter. No other team has more than one interception in the third quarter yet, and only two teams have allowed fewer than three passing first downs.

No, the Seahawks can’t necessarily sustain averaging one takeaway per game in the third quarter, but if Macdonald can put his team in a position to be tied or leading at halftime then maybe he can force opponents into throwing themselves into more mistakes in the second half.

The Seahawks have the third-lowest passer rating allowed in the third quarter so far:

As you can see, the Seahawks have only allowed one touchdown in the second or third quarter combined through two games, and that was the 21-yard drive by Pittsburgh that came off of the interception return by Herbig.

The Seahawks have allowed 56 rushing yards on 16 carries (3.5 YPC) and no touchdowns in the third quarter to the 49ers and Steelers.

Here are the combined stats for the second and third quarters:

• 17-of-30 passing (56.5% completions)

• 1 touchdown (2-yard pass to DK Metcalf)

• 2 interceptions, 3 sacks

• 31 rushing attempts for 104 yards, 3.35 YPC (0 TD)

Here are Purdy and Rodgers’ final stats for the third quarter:

The opponent receivers with the most yards against the Seahawks in these quarters? Well, let’s start with actual wide receivers. These are the wide receiver stats for both the second and third quarters combined (yes, COMBINED):

• Jauan Jennings, 2 catches for 16 yards on 5 targets

• DK Metcalf, 2 catches for 11 yards on 4 targets

End of list. No other receiver has a catch against the Seahawks in the second and third quarter.

You’re probably wondering what Seattle’s WRs splits are in these quarters:

• JSN has 5 catches for 46 yards in the second quarter

• Cooper Kupp has 2 catches for 26 yards in the second

• Kupp has 3 catches for 40 yards in the third

• JSN has 2 catches for 25 yards in the third

Both receivers have over 65 yards in the middle quarters of the game. Every single WR on the 49ers and Steelers combined has 27 yards. Most of the damage against Seattle in the passing game has come from RBs; the 65-yard catch and run by Jaylen Warren is 50% of all the passing yards against Seattle in the third quarter this season.

We’re talking 10-ish air yards and poor tackling.

The next-longest play of either quarter comes from fullback Kyle Juszczyk (25 yards), followed by Christian McCaffrey and Jonnu Smith.

The Seahawks have more plays of either negative yards or interceptions (8) in the 2nd/3rd quarters than they have plays allowing more than 9 yards (5).

Should we care?

Is the “middle-out” theory just a mirage, an anomaly of weird things that can appear when you only have two games and eight quarters of information to study?

Yes, that is possible. Regression to some mean that involves the Seahawks allowing 3 middle-half touchdowns to the Saints is possible (but not likely because it’s the Saints).

However, this is A LOT DIFFERENT than when the Seahawks started 3-0 last season against the Broncos, Dolphins, and Patriots. A lot different. Last year after three games, Seaside Joe was very skeptical of Seattle’s defensive achievements against Bo Nix (first NFL game), Skylar Thompson, and Jacoby Brissett. This feels a lot different than that.

Josh Jobe being dominant against DK Metcalf feels different than last season and we have a new video on Thursday from All-22 Films breaking down why:

A run defense that has not allowed an explosive play on the ground* so far this season, feels different coming against the 49ers and Steelers on the road.

A pass rush ranked first in pressure rate through two games also feels different.

Getting both of those things done without Devon Witherspoon and Nick Emmanwori in Week 2? It implies to me that Seattle might have a system in place, thanks to Macdonald, that is better prepared to handle personnel absences during the season.

The Seahawks defense had a lot to learn in 2024, Macdonald’s first at the helm. Now they have a high bar to reach to pass the test and prove that they did their homework and studied their lessons.

*Here is a game breakdown by Sam Hoppen on his Substack. You can see that the Saints have had a fairly bad offense (purple is bad):

Maybe “middle-out” is not meaningful at all. Second quarter, third quarter? Does it really matter as long as the Seahawks end the fourth quarter with more points than the other team?

No. Winning is all that matters. But poke, prod, pushback, and politely disagree with me if you see it a different way.

Saints Preview-ish Stuff

Their own 2nd quarter problems

The Saints, Seattle’s next opponent, has allowed 14 first downs in the second quarter (twice as many as the Seahawks) and three touchdowns; opposing passers are 20-of-26 with 3 touchdowns against New Orleans in the second quarter!

Although the Saints are only allowing 1.9 yards per carry in this period, what does it matter if you are that bad of a pass defense?

Some other Saints early-season defense stats:

• 29th in third down conversation rate allowed

• 29th in red zone touchdown rate allowed

• 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (5)

Spencer Rattler getting overrated because he’s just not horrible?

This feels like a bad matchup for the Saints right now because what Spencer Rattler needs is a soft defense to get his confidence up and instead he gets the Seahawks. They’re not going to be soft, they’re going to have him under pressure all day, and he’s going to need to play perfect ball to to avoid throwing his first interception of the season.

Yeah he has no interceptions, but Rattler ranks 32nd in yards per pass attempt (5.3) so do the Saints have a star or are they just protecting him because they are afraid what happens if they air it out?

-Rattler’s averaging 4.7 air yards per completion (27th) and his receivers are averaging 3.4 yards after catch per completion (33rd).

-The Saints run the most RPO (run-pass option) plays in the NFL by a wide margin: 20 RPO plays is 7 more than second place.

Alvin Kamara will go down easily?

Although fast, Kamara is averaging 1.1 yards after contact per play, which ranks 40th in the league right now. He is averaging 32 rushing attempts per broken tackle, which is the third-worst mark.

A nightmare situation for Chris Olave

Once one of the most promising receivers in the NFL, Olave could be finding out what it’s like to fall backwards into a nightmare situation for someone at the position. Will he demand to be traded?

• 4.7 yards per target (142nd in the NFL!)

• 8.3 yards per catch (99th)

• The lowest YPC or YPT for anyone with at least 20 targets

I hate to blame anyone other than Rattler for this, but Kellen Moore has to find a way to do better as a HC/OC. Rashid Shaheed has seen his own numbers drop from 17.5 yards per catch to 8.5 yards per catch!

Week 3 could be Seattle’s chance to really assert themselves as the number one defense in the NFL.

More Seahawks OL love

Is that the Seahawks I see ranked as one of AQ Shipley’s top-5 OLs this week? Week after week it seems like Seattle’s offense line climbs out of “bottom-3” to “top-15” territory.

For the die-hard film watchers

Here’s a long breakdown of the Steelers offensive line against the Seahawks defensive line. It has a Pittsburgh tilt but you’ll get more insight into the best defensive line in the NFL:

DID YOU SEE: What is Sam Darnold’s value per dollar spent and do the Seahawks have the best bargain QB in the NFL?

Seaside Joe 2390