Macdonald’s Year 2 Challenge: Boost Seahawks’ O-Line and Special Teams

How kickoffs, field position, first downs, and offensive line changes could help Mike Macdonald crank it up to 11 (wins) this season

In music, the second album (back when we had these things called “albums” that defined artists in the same way that movies define directors, rather than just releasing a new stream on Spotify every week instead) could be more important than the debut. This moment will define to your newfound fans whether you play music or you make music. Do you evolve, devolve, or simply repeat?

We’re all going to have different reference points for this category, but Weezer’s “Pinkerton” stands out to me as the ultimate example of a sophomore slump that managed to withstand the initial criticism and underwhelming sales long enough to become a cult classic, then just a classic.

In 1996, Rolling Stone readers voted Pinkerton as the third-worst album of the year.

In 2002, Rolling Stone readers voted Pinkerton as the 16th-best album of all-time.

Whether you agree or disagree with Rolling Stone readers…you do.

Getting the ultimate promotion as a coach in the NFL is no different than the sophomore album is for musicians. A bad second season is far more damaging than a good first season is helpful. Mike Macdonald had a good first season, but his supporters will flee en masse if the Seahawks regress from his 10-7 start as an NFL head coach.

What are your favorite sophomore albums?

Consider the case of Matt Nagy, who led the Bears to a 12-4 record in his first season in 2018, but fired a few years later after Chicago failed to produce another winning record or top-20 offense. Or Jim Caldwell, who coached a 14-2 Colts team in the Super Bowl during his first season, then went 10-6 and 2-14 prior to being fired as the team proved talentless without Peyton Manning.

Macdonald took over a team in 2024 that had only posted one losing season since 2012, a remarkable streak in the NFL, but perhaps even more surprising a Seattle team that had failed to BE remarkable over Pete Carroll’s final six or seven years in charge.

In Macdonald’s first go as head coach and defensive play caller, the Seahawks had their highest ranking in yards allowed (14th) since 2016, won 10 games for the first time since 2020 (although the 10th win was against backups), and won six of the last eight as Seattle showed major improvements in the second half of the season.

It was like the Seahawks said to Macdonald, “I think I’d be good for you, and you’d be good for me”.

But not everything was better and many of the bad trends that got Pete fired showed no improvement and in some cases got even worse in 2024:

• Seattle fell from 12th in points per drive to 21st

• 18th in average starting field position to 31st

• 5th in turnovers to 24th

The Seahawks responded to the offensive collapse by remastering almost every important job on that side of the ball, from coordinator to offensive line coach to quarterback, receiver, and tight end, while using nine of eleven draft picks on that side of the ball.

But although change was necessary, change is not necessarily always for the better.

Macdonald’s 10 win debut is only good for him if the next album is a hit. A band can survive a “sophomore slump”, and sometimes thrive years later as more people discover and reconsider what they initially criticized, but coaches are rarely so lucky. The “maybe Steve Spagnuolo wasn’t the reason for the Rams being so bad” argument is good for the watercooler when the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl and yet three championships hasn’t done anything to help him get a second chance as a head coach.

The Seahawks have to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024. The 10-7 record is now just a higher bar to clear than if Macdonald had used his mulligan season to relax under forgiving terms of being the youngest head coach in the league.

For Macdonald to keep living the good life and solidify his place as one of the top head coaches to fear in the coming seasons, Seattle has to improve in these areas in 2025.

Better Special Teams: Starting Field Position (31st) / Touchbacks (25th)

The hottest topic of the preseason, for the second year in a row actually, is new rules related to the kicking game.

Number one, Cam Little made a 70-yard field goal over the weekend and he had several yards to spare. This is not just a weird preseason thing that will never happen again. It’s likely related to the fact that the NFL has a new rule allowing kickers several days to prepare their footballs for game action, when previously they were not allowed to prep until gameday. As inconsequential as that might sound…Little made a 70-yard field goal in the very first week of the new rule.

Number two, teams now get the ball at the 35 on kickoff touchbacks, moving it up from the 30. Remember how devastating it used to feel when the Seahawks kicked the ball out of bounds and the opposing team got the ball at the 40, or how exhilirating it felt when Seattle was that team? Well, teams now start just 5 yards shy of the 40 when there’s a touchback.

THAT’S HUGE! Teams are essentially now just 2-3 first downs from scoring range.

Now, it’s pretty hard to get good data on who the best kickoff specialists are in the league today. Even if that data was good, it’s also old. The NFL made full-stop changes to the kickoff in 2024 and revamped it again in 2025 — as you’ll see in the video above — so what use is it to know who the best kickoff specialists were in 2023, or even 2024? This is not just leg strength…

It’s strategy.

But here’s what we do know from 2024:

• Jason Myers had a touchback rate of 53.5%

• That was the eighth-lowest touchback rate in the NFL (min. 60 KOs)

• We don’t want Mayers to have touchbacks unless the opposing return team is really, really good

Breaking this down is kind of a brain teaser because there are times when touchbacks are good and times when they are bad. From 2015-2019, Myers had a touchback rate of 71.8%, which made sense at the time. From 2020-2023, his touchback rate dropped all the way to 54.4%, including an absurdly-low 37.3% in 2021 (lowest for any full-time kicker).

From the old rules in 2023 (64%) to the new ones in 2024 (53.5%), Myers dropped his touchback rate by over 10%. Under the new-new rules, Myers may want to get back to 37%….but only if Seattle proves GOOD at kickoff coverage.

There will be teams that avoid touchbacks and then surrender long returns and at times, give up touchdowns because of it. There will be others, like the Panthers in the above example, who thrive by bouncing the ball on the kickoff and getting downfield quickly to cover, if not forcing a couple turnovers.

Outcome: The backend of the roster could shock us

The importance of special teams under the new and adjusted rules could lead to one or more under-the-radar players making the roster because they’re great at coverage or special teams blocking, but don’t standout on offense or defense. If I knew who those players were, they wouldn’t necessarily be “under the radar”, but the top-three players in special teams snaps last year were Drake Thomas, Jake Bobo, and Mike Morris.

Dareke Young was fourth, Brady Russell was fifth, and Josh Ross was seventh.

Safety D’Anthony Bell, who stood out a bit in Seattle’s first preseason game, was signed for special teams help after playing in 85% of those snaps with the Browns last year. That’s almost 20% higher than the most by anyone on the Seahawks in 2024.

On the flipside, the Seahawks had an average starting field position at the 27.8, which was the second-worst mark in the league.

Although Seattle’s average KO yards per return of 28.0 is slightly above-average (27.6), and field position is also largely tied to how good your defense is, the Seahawks need to steal every yard that they can as the offense undergoes a transition to new management.

To recap:

• Myers must be a kickoff artist, strong legs don’t matter anymore

• Jay Harbaugh has to pick and develop the best coverage tacklers and return blockers from the backend of the roster

• If Steven Sims makes the roster over someone else because he’s the returner, he better prove to be damn good at it

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Convert Money Downs: 21st in both third down (37.6%) and fourth down (52.6%) conversion rate

The top-four teams in third down conversion rate last season won their division (TB, KC, BAL, DET), and teams ranked sixth (WAS) and seventh (BUF) won at least 12 games. That’s pretty predictable…but fourth downs matter too, especially in this era of the sport.

The top three teams in fourth down rate were Washington, Buffalo, and Kansas City, followed by the Super Bowl champions and the surprising Denver Broncos to round out the top-5.

The ultra-conservative Pete Carroll had the Seahawks 30th in fourth down attempts in 2023, while the somewhat safe Macdonald had them up to 22nd, although the total number only increased from 16 to 19. Fourth down attempt totals are largely situational and out of the coach’s control, but there are those coaches like Dan Campbell who insist on being aggressive regardless of the score, distance, and field position.

How aggressive do Macdonald and Klint Kubiak want to be with so many new faces on offense? That largely depends on how successful they are well before they get to fourth down…

As Brett Kollmann recently noted in a video about sacks, defenses good on third down are usually also good on first and second down because they have a lot of third-and-longs and not so many third-and-shorts. So if your offense chunks out 8 yards on the first two downs, they’re more likely than not to convert on third:

The Seahawks had an average yards-to-gain on third down of 7.9 in 2024, tied for the LONGEST distance in the NFL and leading to their poor rate of conversions.

Under Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks had a 45.2% success rate on first down running plays in 2024, which means that less than half of their first down running plays gained the number of yards that they wanted. Seattle had the fourth-highest rate (23.5%) of rushes stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage, indicating something we already knew which is that the offensive line was bad and the play calling was suboptimal.

The Seahawks were 26th in the NFL in yards before contact (1.7).

It’s basically impossible to diagnose how good Kubiak was last year compared to Grubb because we rarely see injuries as bad as what the Saints went through on offense in 2024. Without making excuses for him, New Orleans lost starter after starter and they went from the best offense in Weeks 1-2 to the 31st offense from Weeks 3-18.

That’s a lot more bad than good, but Kubiak was given a third chance to prove himself as an OC by Seattle and whether or not he is a success will depend on a series of wins:

• Call good plays on first down

• Win the battle in the trenches at the snap (aka Block)

• Create third-and-short situations

So if we give Kubiak the benefit of the doubt as a play caller, this really just comes down to the changes that the Seahawks made on the offensive line which if we’re being honest has little to do with personnel and a lot to do with coaching.

On one hand, Grey Zabel is a banger. His presence alone should make Seattle much better on the left side of the offensive line.

But on the other hand, the Seahawks declined to address the center and right guard positions, putting Macdonald back at square one with Anthony Bradford and I guess Olu Oluwatimi, if he’s healthy, or Jalen Sundell. Will play calling and Zabel be enough to improve Seattle’s rate of conversions or do the Seahawks need to continue fleshing out the roster?

Outcome: Do the Seahawks need to add another G/C?

We are at a point in training camp now that makes it okay to ask if Macdonald is unhappy enough with the center/guard competitions as to seek outside help. Whether or not Seattle likes Brandon Scherff, the former Pro Bowl guard who remains a free agent despite starting every game since 2022, can only be answered with: Well, they haven’t shown any interest yet despite a lot of reasons to show interest.

Going on 34, maybe the Seahawks worry Scherff will turn into another Connor Williams-esque midseason retirement.

If not Scherff or a free agent, of which there are few names that could be better than Bradford and Christian Haynes, waiting until camp cuts is probably the next time to expect Seattle to explore outside additions. In 2023, the Rams traded for Kevin Dotson when the Steelers didn’t want him and it cost nothing to go get him. Two seasons later, the 29-year-old Dotson is considered one of the best right guards in the league largely because he went from a poor fit to a great one.

If I could name the next Kevin Dotson, I wouldn’t be working at Seaside Joe. I’d be considered too valuable to the Seahawks! But I’d wait 3 more weeks to find out if Seattle is going to roll with these players at those weak spots or create more competition from the outside.

To Recap:

• The Seahawks need to convert more third downs, be more aggressive on fourth down

• To do that, they must be better on first and second down to create shorter yards-to-gain situations

• To do THAT, they must run the ball better

• To run the ball better, they must block better

• To block better, the Seahawks may need to seek outside help

Between Zabel and a healthy Abe Lucas, the Seahawks could have significant upgrades at 2 of 5 starting positions. That’s huge, but the job isn’t finished.

There are more Seattle stats to cover than this that need improvement in Macdonald’s second season, but I’ll save that for the sophomore article even if I don’t care what they say about us anyway. I don’t care about that.

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